Preview 2019 Round 22 - Richmond vs West Coast, Sunday 18th of August @ MCG, 1:10pm

[4tune8]

Honestly just hope we have a plan for McGovern. He is very Rance-like - perhaps JR8 can do a job on him?

I think it's important for both defenses to have a +1, it allows players to negate a forward whilst the zoning defender either intercept marks or spoils. Noticed it in particular in the 1st half against the Bloos, we set up with a +1 in defense and pretty much shut down their forward line. 2nd half Teague evened up the numbers which nullified the intercept marks. I know there's much more to it, like how the ball is delivered etc. But if we allow the Weagles that extra, zoning defender then we'll be playing directly into their hands, particularly if the pill is bombed in long.

I'd like to see us clear out the forward line and just have JR8, Lunch and Dusty/Caddy/George et al rotating, spread their defense and nullify the intercepts.

 

[HTT]

I think it's important for both defenses to have a +1, it allows players to negate a forward whilst the zoning defender either intercept marks or spoils. Noticed it in particular in the 1st half against the Bloos, we set up with a +1 in defense and pretty much shut down their forward line. 2nd half Teague evened up the numbers which nullified the intercept marks. I know there's much more to it, like how the ball is delivered etc. But if we allow the Weagles that extra, zoning defender then we'll be playing directly into their hands, particularly if the pill is bombed in long.

I'd like to see us clear out the forward line and just have JR8, Lunch and Dusty/Caddy/George et al rotating, spread their defense and nullify the intercepts.

Yep I think what you mention about not bombing it in long is crucial. It doesn’t matter how we set up, rushed kicks not to our advantage will be cut up. It goes a little bit against our mantra but I think we need to be a bit more deliberate entering the 50 this week.

 

[Shazza_]

match of the year by far

 

[Makeshft_Mauler]

Id appreciate it if it could piss down please melbourne

The proud state of victoria will help us out.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

I would take a draw in a heartbeat.

 

[cairo tiger]

View attachment 724984​

History at the MCG
For an entire decade, from 2008 through 2017, West Coast had won just 5 of 23 encounters at The MCG (three 12-goal-ave wins over Melbourne, a 7-point win over Carlton, and The Tigs’ R12 ’15 loss).

Whilst WC was struggling to shake their MCG hoodoo; Richmond was embarking on an unparalleled period of dominance at the same venue. Since R1 ‘17, Richmond has won 36 of 41 matches at The ‘G. This record includes a streak of 22 consecutive wins which eclipsed the 62-year-old VFL/AFL record previously held by Melbourne.

View attachment 724985
Consecutive Wins at the MCG
​

However, West Coast appear to have turned a corner in this regard, since R1 ’18 they haven’t dropped a game. Like many of the interstate premiers that came before them; they now travel to the home of footy sitting equal first for all-time consecutive wins at The MCG for an interstate side.

View attachment 724986
Consecutive Wins at the MCG (Interstate Teams Only)​

In other words – this weekend West Coast are playing for the title of best non-Victorian MCG performer of all time. To win the title, they must defeat the best Victorian performer of all time in Richmond.

Recent Form
Any-and-all spots in the Top 4 are currently up for grabs by any-and-all of the four teams sitting within it (Geel, Bris, WC, Rich). Much has been made of form lines since the bye and how these sides are timing their run into finals. For those following along at home; Geelong (LWLWLWLW) has struggled v. some average opposition and Brisbane (WWWWWWWW) has been red-hot, winning every game by an average of 38 points (two of those v Top 8 sides).

View attachment 724987​

West Coast have maintained decent pre-bye form vs. average opposition, winning by an average of 32 points and dropping one game by a point to the only Top 8 side faced (Collingwood at home).

Having recovered from a horrific run of injuries before the bye, Richmond have been white-hot, winning every game by a 40-point average. Convincingly beating fellow Top 4 contenders in GWS and Collingwood, Top 8 side Port and recent scraps over Melbourne and Carlton.

The Importance of this Game
The points for/against differential between our two teams is astounding this late in a season. A 30-point win Richmond’s way would mean a single (one) point away/for differential either way, and we’d sit less than 0.0001% above WC on the ladder. Should we lose however, Collingwood and GWS are hot on our heals and will no doubt snap up our Top 4 spot before the season’s out. We absolutely must win this game to consolidate our second chance in the finals.

Last Time We Met
R9 ’18, WC (20.10.130) def. Rich (12.11.83) @ Optus Stadium

West Coast had us on the ropes from the outset and recorded an emphatic eighth win on their path to 10-straight (their best run since 1996).

After quarter time, The Tigs applied their trademark pressure and were able to wrestle back a 22-point deficit, entering the main break with scores level.

In the second half, however, everything went West Coast’s way. Hurn and McGovern were impassable in defence and the home side’s precise kicking game cut Richmond to pieces.

Jack Darling continued his dominant run as WC’s KPF and arguably the best performing player in the competition, with a career-high 6 goals and 7 contested marks.

The sell-out home crowd willed The Eagles (and the umpires) on, kicking 13 goals to 6 in the second half and running out 47-point winners, overtaking Richmond atop the ladder.

Riewoldt (5 goals, 4 contested marks) was Richmond’s best, with Nankervis putting forward a courageous performance versus the Naitanui/Lycett double-team. Martin (17 contested pos, 8 SI’s and 8 clearances) was also impressive but mostly unassisted in the middle.

Last Weeks’ Teams
View attachment 724988

BEST
Richmond: 1) Graham, 2) Prestia, 3) Vlastuin, 4) Edwards, 5) Ross
West Coast: 1) Darling, 2) Rioli, 3) Yeo, 4) Shuey, 5) Allen

INJURIES
Richmond: Nil
West Coast: Nil

POTENTIAL CHANGES
Richmond – IN: Martin, Soldo, OUT: Bolton (Omitted), Chol (Omitted)
West Coast – IN: Cameron, OUT: Petruccelle (Omitted)

How the Game’s Won
Richmond are the undisputed best at what they do; their game relies on intercepts, high tackle differentials and repeated inside 50’s. Through relentless pressure, they force teams to make mistakes and turn it over to a lighting fast run and spread.

West Coast’s game is the polar opposite and they’re also the best at what they do. Their game relies on frequent and accurate kicking, a low disposal/scoring ratio, they rarely turn it over and they rarely get tackled.

View attachment 724989​

Def v. Fwd – Grimes v. Ryan & Rioli

Once the ball’s I50, West Coast perform very similar to us – if Darling and Kennedy aren’t clunking marks, their smalls are going to work and creating opportunities from thin air. Once they’re in, they usually score. Grimes is in All-Australian form and we’ve seen him do a number on talls and smalls alike, time and time again.

Midfield – Graham v. Shuey

The Eagles are unstoppable on the outside, so we need to deny them first use of the ball. Shuey is their best clearance player and Graham is the pressure machine that will bring him down.

Fwd v. Def – Lynch v. McGovern

McGovern and Hurn’s intercept and rebound 50 numbers are something to behold – if you thought Vlasy and Houli’s numbers were good, they pale in comparison. McGovern’s contested marking numbers are among the best in the competition, second only to Tom Lynch.

At the end of Round 21, the punters have Richmond and WC as equal flag favourites, form-wise the two sides are also on par. This is a great opportunity to see how our game stacks up against the reigning premiers, but it’s also a must win for both teams.

Weather
View attachment 724990

Milestones
Broad (50 games played)

Verdict
The Bookies – Richmond by 8
Squiggle.com.au – Richmond by 15
My Heart – Richmond by 30
My Head – Richmond by 29

C'mon Tigers!

Short, sharp analytical. Well done.

 

[mopsy]

if chol is dropped then that will just free McGovern up to do what he does. If he is dropped then Schofield will take Riewoldt and Barass will take Lynch.Leaving McGovern to do what he does.

Personally lets make em all accountable for a man and continue to play Cholly and hopefully it is dry.

At the other end of the ground we are shy one big kpd.
Eagles go with Kennedy Darling and Allen who has had a pretty decent yr and is never spoken about
This is a game where id be trying Balta on possibly Darling and Astbury on Kennedy both are our best options physically. Grimes can go to the similar sized Allen.

Also id be looking to bring in some bigger bodies like Pickett and McIntosh dusty and Cotch and drop a few of the smaller players.Short, Ellis,Baker seriuosly we lose nothing but we gain some real grunt and we match up way better both physically and height without losing pace and run.

 

[Tigerbob68]

I don't know why the AFL made us wait so long to have this game I would have thought we would have played each other twice this season with us both finishing last year in the top 2 in the Home and Away and top 3 in the finals.

Are you in Perth and coming across for the game?
Even though the clash of the two most recent premiers isn't a 'thing' like the GF replay is it's still a mouth watering game any year you'd think. Last year we played the Bulldogs in the last round and this year it's you in the 2nd last. No one knows how they prioritise things with the fixture. We've played Collingwood 4 times since we last played you and 5 times since we last played Brisbane. Only one of them was a final.
Agree that it should be a great game and hopefully a GF preview!!

 

[Wallaby]

If I was a neutral, I would look at those odds

Tigers $1.55
Eagles $2.45

and think that's great value for the visitors. I think we are favorites, but only just.

 

[69vintage]

Haven't checked the stats
Is the Mundy goal after the siren in 17 the last time we have lost too a interstate side at the G ?

On SM-A520F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Granted they are a good side and match up well on us,

How do they match up well on us, we haven't played them since the stone age.

 

[Tigerbob68]

Haven't checked the stats
Is the Mundy goal after the siren in 17 the last time we have lost too a interstate side at the G ?

On SM-A520F using BigFooty.com mobile app

No, Sydney about 5 weeks later was.

EDIT: Of course what I SHOULD have posted is ... No, Geelong a few weeks ago

 

[Shazza_]

should we ask the afl to wheel out Dean cox and have Vick jesus as homecoming hero for lols?

 

[biaseddustyfan]

should we ask the afl to wheel out Dean cox and have Vick jesus as homecoming hero for lols?

bongs lloyd

 

[mad_tiggy911]

Soldo first ruck and Nanna to bash into mud guts.

Think it’s gonna rain again lol. Best.

 

[NZ_Tiger]

I think our speedy forwards is what will trouble West Coast's backline. We have half a dozen players who can all rotate through and be damaging at anytime of the game. I think West Coast match up well against our tall forwards and Jack's game against Carlton has me slightly concerned, he looked for frees way too much IMO and it distracted from his game. McGovern & Barrass down back with Hurn, generally means taking contested marks inside 50 will be very difficult.

West Coast forwardline is their strength and it's how we go about breaking them down, we give them over 60 inside 50's this weekend like Adelaide did and we will get rolled. Their Rioli is playing a lot better than ours atm and will be a handleful with Ryan dominating the air. Darling is the main threat and we need Astbury to do his job, Kennedy is always a challenge but not their main guy this season.

Our back six is very underrated but if WC let them spread and run off the half backline then West Coast will pay the price. Midfield is very even, Shuey, Yeo & Gaff the main threats, but I think we have enough depth in the midfield this year to really suprise. Dusty, Cotchin, Ross, Lambert, Edwards, Stack & Ellis. I'd go in with 2 ruckman this week with Nank and Soldo and really plan on hammering Hickey's body all game long and wearing him down which will greatly impact how well their midfield plays.

The other interesting aspect of this game is even though both teams are winning they dont seem to blow their opponents away and tend to leave the door slightly a jar. I have a feeling we will start well early and look to be on top but after halftime West Coast will play that 15 mins of brilliant footy they tend to do and kick 5 or 6 in a row before the last quarter being a real scrap with us getting over the line by about 8 points.

Lock it in coach.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Lsta062]

As weird as it sounds, I think we have the ruck advantage in this game. It’s weird because it’s not often we do. Nankervis + Soldo means that we’d probably be the ones with the advantage at the ruck contest instead of Hickey + Allen or Hickey + Vardy if he returns (not sure where he is).

Is this also the first time that Dusty, Graham, Cotchin, Prestia and Ross potentially all play in the one side? You’d think that’s our best inside midfield for the year.

I’m with many others on the Balta selection. Our defence really needs an extra tall and I think his time is here for it. They have 3 talls up forward so surely he can go on one of them. What position has he been playing in the VFL?

 

[Balls In]

Contrasting gamestyles with the swarming chaos of Richmond against our mark and kick control game. We will need to take the heat and speed out of the equation early and spread you guys all over the wide expanses.

Our backline is not quite right at the minute and Hurn has been a bit down since he returned from injury. We have been especially succeptable to quick entries when our big intercept markers cant set up. That is exactly what you guys do well so that is our challenge to stop it.

Rioli, Ryan, Cameron and Cripps buzzing around at the feet of Darling and Kennedy is also a big threat to you guys especially as OAllen and Waterman are pretty handy secondary talls. I have an inkling Kennedy is due as as well.

Our stoppage work is average but otherwise I feel our midfield matches up pretty well. I hope so because that will ultimately be where the game is. I actually have no idea who is going to win this. Part of me thinks it could even be a blowout but I'm sure its not curtains for the loser.

 

[Lsta062]

Contrasting gamestyles with the swarming chaos of Richmond against our mark and kick control game. We will need to take the heat and speed out of the equation early and spread you guys all over the wide expanses.

Our backline is not quite right at the minute and Hurn has been a bit down since he returned from injury. We have been especially succeptable to quick entries when our big intercept markers cant set up. That is exactly what you guys do well so that is our challenge to stop it.

On the flipside Rioli, Ryan, Cameron and Cripps buzzing around at the feet of Darling and Kennedy is also a big threat to you guys especially as OAllen and Waterman are pretty handy secondary talls. I have an inkling Kennedy is due as as well.

Our stoppage work is average but otherwise I feel our midfield matches up pretty well against you guys. I hope so because that will ultimately be where the game is. I actually have no idea who is going to win this. Part of me thinks it could even be a blowout but I'm sure its not curtains for the loser.

It’s interesting how West Coast loaded up on small forwards after Richmond win the Premiership and Richmond loaded up on talls now that West Coast won the Premiership. What you describe your forward line as is what we are basically like. Two star tall forwards and a load of smalls. A couple of years ago both sides had quite different forward lines.

 

[Burning bright]

When Two phones was rucking he laid enough tackles against Carlton in the guts for him to hold his place.

Blow out Tigers by 49

.

 

[sante]

Finals start now!

 

[_RT_]

Going to be very interesting in how we attack this game.

I was thinking earlier today about us going all out by loading up the forward half with Jack Tom and Nank to restrict the ability of McGovern to peel off and become the spare man in defence, which would mean Soldo into the ruck and loading up the midfield with Cotchin Martin Prestia Lambert Edwards Ross Graham Ellis Caddy & Bolton rotating through. Basically go toe to toe with the Eagles and back our mids to win more of the ball and provide enough quality entries so that our 3 talls have a major impact. Down back I'd move Stack to HB where he looked much more comfortable running at the ball/opponent. To accommodate this the changes would be:

Out: Rioli Baker Chol
In: Cotchin Martin Soldo

 

[DoItForCaptBlood]

Finals start now!

Exactly what I was thinking today.

Hopefully five games at G knocking off each contender as they get in the ring.

 

[Cevap_Roll]

As weird as it sounds, I think we have the ruck advantage in this game. It’s weird because it’s not often we do. Nankervis + Soldo means that we’d probably be the ones with the advantage at the ruck contest instead of Hickey + Allen or Hickey + Vardy if he returns (not sure where he is).

Is this also the first time that Dusty, Graham, Cotchin, Prestia and Ross potentially all play in the one side? You’d think that’s our best inside midfield for the year.

I’m with many others on the Balta selection. Our defence really needs an extra tall and I think his time is here for it. They have 3 talls up forward so surely he can go on one of them. What position has he been playing in the VFL?

Balta has been playing in defence.

 

[TheBeardedEagle]

Are you in Perth and coming across for the game?
Even though the clash of the two most recent premiers isn't a 'thing' like the GF replay is it's still a mouth watering game any year you'd think. Last year we played the Bulldogs in the last round and this year it's you in the 2nd last. No one knows how they prioritise things with the fixture. We've played Collingwood 4 times since we last played you and 5 times since we last played Brisbane. Only one of them was a final.
Agree that it should be a great game and hopefully a GF preview!!

I am the undercover WC fan that lives deep behind enemy lines. I live opposite Dan Murphys in Richmond. I grew up in Perth, but I have lived here for 10 years. Specifically 9 and 3/4 of them in Richmond. The suburb is great! But as you could see with my reply to the preview, I love footy but I bleed blue and yellow.

We will be walking down bridge road to the game on Saturday SUNDAY to the game via a pub or 10.

As I said, Ive been waiting 11 months for this game @ the G!