List Mgmt. 2019 Trade Thread - Part III

[WhiskySaint]

This year we had no Steven, Carlisle or Hannebery.

Incorrect,`The midfield will improve if the guys we are talking about come in,hill is a lock,jones a chance,hopefully more games out of hannebary, we got nothing out of steven this year anyway,with abit of luck bytel gets a good run at it

I understand your points, and I said we could easily, not definitely finish bottom 2.

Reality is we had a piss easy draw this year and hit the dons at the perfect time. We scraped passed a few teams as well like gc by 1 point in round 1.

We had the third worst percentage for the year, but got up to 5th from the bottom.

We are young, have an average midfield and (I’ve assumed) have lost Bruce so will get even less experienced in the front half.

The way I see it is we are a few injuries and some bad luck away from a really tough year.

Hopefully not....

 

[The_Steadier]

Ok fellas, I'm not sure how this will be received but I'm bored of doing Freo hypotheticals and you guys shape as having a real interesting off-season.

Please feel free to tell me to f off or delete the post if hate what I'm peddling, i understand.

Foreword: I really really respect what you guys appear to be doing this off-season. You appear to have identifed the need for run and carry as your biggest hole and that you are too top heavy with Ming getting ready to go. i also think you basically a shoe in for Bing next year which your Gubby is well across so they are happy to get value for KPPs they have at the moment that are surplus

Here's my attempt at a realistc trade off-season for St Kilda. I fully expect many of you will think I'm undervaluing your players and I understand that

Assumptions:
1) Bulldogs win week 1, lose 2nd week
2) GC get PP at the top of the draft
3) Geelong make the prelim and lose

Trade 1 (Dogs):
Out: Bruce
in: 14

Trade 2 (Cats)
Out: Steven, Future 4th
in: 33

Trade 3 (Dogs/Crows)
Out: Carlisle, 56
In: Keath, 42

Trade 4 (Hawks)
Out: 6
In: 11, 29
View attachment 740480
Keep in mind you generally need to pay a premium of 30%-50% to move up the draft order but I think this year will buck that trend given so many teams want to downgrade. Not sure Hawks want to do this but I think a top 12 pick is non-negotiable for Freo

Trade 5 (Freo)
Out: 11 and Acres
In: Hill

Net Result
Out: Carlisle, Acres, Bruce, Steven, 6, future 4th, 55
In: Hill, Keath, 14, 29, 33, 42

Appreciate the effort but the outs are ALL contracted and are required far more than the ins.

We're 8 years into a rebuild.
We aren't settling in for another 5 years of building- the club have been aiming for finals the last 2 years and will be outright DEMANDING finals next year.

We'll be the Gold Coast Saints in 5 years if we went down the path you've suggested.

Contracted, mature players are worth far more to us at this point than magic beans picks.

We wont be selling off the likes of Carlisle, Acres, Bruce for picks.
We may well move them on for best 22 players, but not picks.
Or they simply just stay.

 

[BrutThough]

i tried to be generous in the Steven and Carlisle trades if I'm being honest, but both are contracted so you have some level of power there I think.

I'm sure others here will think I havent given you enough. Carlisle has the back problem but I would still think he's worth more than Keath personally who has had just the one decent season.

I'll tread carefully on the Hill one since we'll disagree but do you think Acres and 11 is heavy overs or slight overs? I think you'll need to do slight overs to get it done.

If it was Acres and 11, I would be expecting a pick back with Hill.

 

[StCicatriz]

Ok fellas, I'm not sure how this will be received but I'm bored of doing Freo hypotheticals and you guys shape as having a real interesting off-season.

Please feel free to tell me to f off or delete the post if hate what I'm peddling, i understand.

Foreword: I really really respect what you guys appear to be doing this off-season. You appear to have identifed the need for run and carry as your biggest hole and that you are too top heavy with Ming getting ready to go. i also think you basically a shoe in for Bing next year which your Gubby is well across so they are happy to get value for KPPs they have at the moment that are surplus

Here's my attempt at a realistc trade off-season for St Kilda. I fully expect many of you will think I'm undervaluing your players and I understand that

Assumptions:
1) Bulldogs win week 1, lose 2nd week
2) GC get PP at the top of the draft
3) Geelong make the prelim and lose

Trade 1 (Dogs):
Out: Bruce
in: 14

Trade 2 (Cats)
Out: Steven, Future 4th
in: 33

Trade 3 (Dogs/Crows)
Out: Carlisle, 56
In: Keath, 42

Trade 4 (Hawks)
Out: 6
In: 11, 29
View attachment 740480
Keep in mind you generally need to pay a premium of 30%-50% to move up the draft order but I think this year will buck that trend given so many teams want to downgrade. Not sure Hawks want to do this but I think a top 12 pick is non-negotiable for Freo

Trade 5 (Freo)
Out: 11 and Acres
In: Hill

Net Result
Out: Carlisle, Acres, Bruce, Steven, 6, future 4th, 55
In: Hill, Keath, 14, 29, 33, 42

i dont get the point of the hawks trade

 

[Diehard Saint]

If the Dogs have really made our contracted, number one key forward an "offer he can't refuse", then we will either get their first round pick or the trade does not happen.

We hold all the cards. This isn't a trade that needs to favour both clubs, this is the dogs needing to pay us for what they want.

Interest and big money offer from the Pies should spice up the auction a little too.

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

Ok fellas, I'm not sure how this will be received but I'm bored of doing Freo hypotheticals and you guys shape as having a real interesting off-season.

Please feel free to tell me to f off or delete the post if hate what I'm peddling, i understand.

Foreword: I really really respect what you guys appear to be doing this off-season. You appear to have identifed the need for run and carry as your biggest hole and that you are too top heavy with Ming getting ready to go. i also think you basically a shoe in for Bing next year which your Gubby is well across so they are happy to get value for KPPs they have at the moment that are surplus

Here's my attempt at a realistc trade off-season for St Kilda. I fully expect many of you will think I'm undervaluing your players and I understand that

Assumptions:
1) Bulldogs win week 1, lose 2nd week
2) GC get PP at the top of the draft
3) Geelong make the prelim and lose

Trade 1 (Dogs):
Out: Bruce
in: 14

Trade 2 (Cats)
Out: Steven, Future 4th
in: 33

Trade 3 (Dogs/Crows)
Out: Carlisle, 56
In: Keath, 42

Trade 4 (Hawks)
Out: 6
In: 11, 29
View attachment 740480
Keep in mind you generally need to pay a premium of 30%-50% to move up the draft order but I think this year will buck that trend given so many teams want to downgrade. Not sure Hawks want to do this but I think a top 12 pick is non-negotiable for Freo

Trade 5 (Freo)
Out: 11 and Acres
In: Hill

Net Result
Out: Carlisle, Acres, Bruce, Steven, 6, future 4th, 55
In: Hill, Keath, 14, 29, 33, 42

this actually looks fair but I don't like it..

 

[Groater]

How many other decent KPFs in their prime are likely to be available for trade this offseason?

 

[BrutThough]

Interest and big money offer from the Pies should spice up the auction a little too.

Pies don't have big money to offer anyone. Their cap is already tight, and they have Grundy, Moore and De Goey to all out of contract next season.

 

[shlong]

( Hoping we trade hill in with the pick WB will give for bruce ) Is there a chance we throw a hail mary at GWS and try and snare Whitfield (2x 1sts and maybe a 2nd?)

 

[mightymalaka]

I just want it noted that losing Bruce, Carlisle and Steven in one off season is
Way too big a hit in my opinion! Especially to our spine! Just exposes us to our youth
Too quickly when it is not necessary!
Two of the three i can live with, provided we get decent value for them!

That will be plenty to get our main target in this year in Hill and
Still with some change to play with for getting other deals in as
I'm sure there will be some wheeling and dealing around some players and picks
Or we can just simply go to the draft with a decent hand!

 

[shlong]

Cant see bruce leaving for anything under a 1st rounder given the way the articles are worded

 

[Saintsman33]

These trade scenarios get worse and worse

If someone doesn’t give us a first for Carlisle/Bruce then we keep them.

If Freo don’t take 5 for Hill then they can keep him.

No point trading if they aren’t somewhat even or in our favour. Both Bruce and Carlisle are contracted.

Still can’t work out why this forum thinks we have to over pay to get Hill because he is contracted and we have to accept unders for Bruce, Carlisle and Steven even though they are contract.

 

[TheEnsign]

Snuffaluphagus Firstly, cheers for taking the time to look over our list and have a considered view on the trades.

I don't really have a view on the Steven trade since if he nominates it'll get done and Geelong will give fair value.

For the Carlisle => Keath mooted trade, I don't think it's in our favour enough with what you've put out there. Notwithstanding Carlisle's back issues, he has a much longer body of work than Keath (and I don't get the Keath thing generally - as you say, he's had one good season and is mature age) and Carlisle is contracted. I don't why we'd do that for a player as unproven over the long term as Keath for effectively a modest pick upgrade.

If we trade Bruce and don't bring in a mature forward (or play Battle forward to support King) then I'll legit start looking for another club to support. Having a forward line of King and Membrey as the tall targets would be doing a 'Watts' to King. I'd hate it. We could play Battle forward but given how great he's been down back this year I don't know why we would.

So, the Hill trade is the spicy one. I'd rate Acres as a mid-second round, so using draft points (crappy, I know) says 11 + Acres is better than Pick 5 (roughly Pick 4 equivalent) suggesting a straight swap is better for us. Pick 5 seems like way overs though (he wants to leave) so my preferred trade there would be Pick 5 + our third for Hill and Langdon.

 

[BrutThough]

I just want it noted that losing Bruce, Carlisle and Steven in one off season is
Way too big a hit in my opinion! Especially to our spine! Just exposes us to our youth
Too quickly when it is not necessary!
Two of the three i can live with, provided we get decent value for them!

That will be plenty to get our main target in this year in Hill and
Still with some change to play with for getting other deals in as
I'm sure there will be some wheeling and dealing around some players and picks
Or we can just simply go to the draft with a decent hand!

I'm of the belief only one of Carlisle or Bruce would be traded and with little interest on Carlisle out there, it is going to be Bruce.

Battle can move forward to replace Bruce, then whichever we are bringing in a Tomlinson to Keath to take Battle's spot.

The only reason both would go would be if we were definitely getting Bing, but thats looking unlikely this year.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Pies don't have big money to offer anyone. Their cap is already tight, and they have Grundy, Moore and De Goey to all out of contract next season.

Well they're interested and they don't have a first round draft pick, what else are they going to do?
Anyway, genuine or not, a bit of competition can only be a good thing.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

These trade scenarios get worse and worse

If someone doesn’t give us a first for Carlisle/Bruce then we keep them.

If Freo don’t take 5 for Hill then they can keep him.

No point trading if they aren’t somewhat even or in our favour. Both Bruce and Carlisle are contracted.

Still can’t work out why this forum thinks we have to over pay to get Hill because he is contracted and we have to accept unders for Bruce, Carlisle and Steven even though they are contract.

Its Hill that wants to leave. If they want to be stuck with a disgruntled player, that's their choice.
Why should the Saints pay overs?

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Actually as much as you rate Acres, he seems exactly the type you throw in as a sweetener. Best 22, yes, but bottom 6, still has some value but not a great deal.

Those other guys are delist material. Young might be the only one on our list due to his contract. A sweetener needs to have some value, you can't just hand over a pile of poo. Otherwise they just say no, give us 5.

as much as you under rate Acres he is most certainly not a person you give away for free ... how many best 22 players get thrown in for free in any trade

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I'm of the belief only one of Carlisle or Bruce would be traded and with little interest on Carlisle out there, it is going to be Bruce.

Battle can move forward to replace Bruce, then whichever we are bringing in a Tomlinson to Keath to take Battle's spot.

The only reason both would go would be if we were definitely getting Bing, but thats looking unlikely this year.

No such thing as definitely until it happens.

 

[The_Steadier]

Who says I'm arguing? People are allowed to have discussion around here, and of course there's going to be disagreement. Seems there's Saints fans who think they'll get our 1st for Bruce (or even more), Dogs fans who think we'll get him for our 2nd, and then there's reality where the clubs meet somewhere in the middle

Yes however as josh has a contract and has no issues playing for us- there is simply no need for the clubs to meet in the middle.
That's the point being made.

Meeting in the middle only needs to occur when a situation requires something to happen.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

as much as you under rate Acres he is most certainly not a person you give away for free ... how many best 22 players get thrown in for free in any trade

Schneider Trade?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Snuffaluphagus Firstly, cheers for taking the time to look over our list and have a considered view on the trades.

I don't really have a view on the Steven trade since if he nominates it'll get done and Geelong will give fair value.

For the Carlisle => Keath mooted trade, I don't think it's in our favour enough with what you've put out there. Notwithstanding Carlisle's back issues, he has a much longer body of work than Keath (and I don't get the Keath thing generally - as you say, he's had one good season) and is contracted. I don't why we'd do that for a player as unproven over the long term as Keath for effectively a modest pick upgrade.

If we trade Bruce and don't bring in a mature forward (or play Battle forward) then I'll legit start looking for another club to support. Having a forward like of King and Membrey at the tall targets would be doing a 'Watts' to King. I'd hate it. We could play Battle forward but given how great he's been down back this year I don't know why we would.

So, the Hill trade is the spicy one. I'd rate Acres as a mid-second round, so using draft points (crappy, I know) says 11 + Acres is better than Pick 5 (roughly Pick 4 equivalent) suggesting a straight swap is better for us. Pick 5 seems like way overs though (he wants to leave) so my preferred trade there would be Pick 5 + our third for Hill and Langdon.

On Carlisle, as you've seen above, one of your guys thinks I'm over-valuing so it might not be too far off.

This goes out to everyone, is the general idea you would rather do 5(6) in a straight swap than 11 and Acres?

 

[Virgin Dog]

Yes however as josh has a contract and has no issues playing for us- there is simply no need for the clubs to meet in the middle.
That's the point being made.

Meeting in the middle only needs to occur when a situation requires something to happen.

Saints are starting this trade period from behind, thanks to the future pick trading from 2018. With only Pick 5, 55 and 68, there's really not much to work with. They are going to need currency if they're going to be securing trades for any of the players they've been linked with. Pick 5 will get you Hill, but then you're left with nothing unless you compromise another draft hand in 2020.

The other thing is that once a player requests a trade, sometimes you just need to bite the bullet and make the trade. We did it with a contracted Marcus Adams last year, trading him for 2018 and 2019 3rd rounders. We could have held him to contract, but that could potentially have meant an unhappy player sticking around the final year of their contract, and then him leaving for a pittance the following year. Obviously the Saints won't accept just nothing for him, but if Bruce is being offered substantial $ at the Dogs, and the Saints don't at least extend his contract to match, then they could end up with an unhappy player

 

[shlong]

On Carlisle, as you've seen above, one of your guys thinks I'm over-valuing so it might not be too far off.

This goes out to everyone, is the general idea you would rather do 5(6) in a straight swap than 11 and Acres?

I would much rather straight swap 6 for hill than give up 11 and acres

 

[sunny3193]

 

[bird_man]

as much as you under rate Acres he is most certainly not a person you give away for free ... how many best 22 players get thrown in for free in any trade

When did I say give him away for free?

A sweetener has to hold some sort of value. Players that we are about to delist hold none.

A late first won't be enough to get Hill so if we are adding a sweetener it needs to hold some sort of value.

Acres is probably worth a late second round pick. We'd get laughed out of the room if we tried to throw in Bailey Rice.