AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)

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benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
815
501
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
But then that makes your bet an all or nothing bet versus mine bet which is only risking 1 of my 2 units.
I'm only risking half my units in week 1 (so long as port are no greater than around $2.30 after the prelim thanks to cashout), whereas you are risking all your units in week 1
I like the 4.20 purely as it equates to about 2.2 in the gf which it they beat Richmond they should be shorter than. For that reason and that reason alone you should back it.

Cash outs are terrible value you are better off betting the 4.2 then backing Brisbane in the GF to hedge but then you are double dipping in their margins which gets rid of most the value of the 4.2.

Best bet would be 1U on port v tigers. 0.5 unit on port premiers. If you think port can go the whole way
 

freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
5,814
6,619
Perth
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Fremantle
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East Fremantle
Theres an arb available Ablett AGS Ned 1.90
and U0.5 goals topsport 2.28

I'm not gonna try as I doubt they will let anyone get on for much for such new markets
 

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mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,584
6,569
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I can't visit topsport due, I believe, to my using a VPN.

Which is a shame, I'd take a bet on every single unders goals markets they offer.

It would be nice to cheer on the shithouse kicking for goal we've been seeing this season.
 

toenail11

All Australian
Feb 21, 2008
656
800
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Degoey 3+
Hawkins 2+
@ 10 sb

Hawkins 3+
Degoey 2+
Mihocek ags
@11.50 powered sb

Tom to bounce back and Degoey looked dangerous last week whenever he touched it. Mihocek pretty reliable for a goal
Go pies
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
7,963
17,148
AFL Club
St Kilda
Pretty cut up that they have pushed the u/o total goals from 16.5 to 17.5 (at fractionally worse odds of 1.73) since wednesday.

I'd much rather the extra goal up my sleeve than a measly 6 cents!

20201010_173858.jpg


Riding home a chess match, arm wrestle of a game! (And of course my mate lachie)
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,829
54,801
AFL Club
Adelaide
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Maybe I havent been paying attention to the odds markets, but I am surprised that the Pies SU price has moved out, yet the line has stayed the same at +6.5
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,584
6,569
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Can somebody talk me out of loading up on Cox 2+ @ 5?

So far as I can tell, he is 3/5 at the Gabba this year for 2+.

And 2/3 in finals matches, including his most recent outing.

How is he $5? Seems like $2.50 - $3 would be more appropriate.

What do Sportsbet know that I don't?
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,829
54,801
AFL Club
Adelaide
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Can somebody talk me out of loading up on Cox 2+ @ 5?

So far as I can tell, he is 3/5 at the Gabba this year for 2+.

And 2/3 in finals matches, including his most recent outing.

How is he $5? Seems like $2.50 - $3 would be more appropriate.

What do Sportsbet know that I don't?
Im surprised at the odds too tbh.

Cox is a great overhead mark and this was DeGoey's strength in the last time they played them, where Cox didnt play.

The game should be played in less dewy conditions too given the timeslot as well.
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,584
6,569
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Here's my bets for tonight.

Cox 2+ @ 5 (SB), 3+ @ 19 (TAB), 4+ @ 67 (SB).

Decided not to load up, only put a little bit on each, the odds seem too good to be true.

I know how illogical that sounds but I don't trust SB, their models and statisticians must know something I don't.

good ship cox.jpg


Three small SB 'lose one leg get money back' multis:

Coll SU, Under 118.5, Tuohy AGS @ 16

Hawkins 2+, De Goey 2+, Stephenson 2+ @ 25

Hawkins AGS, De Goey AGS, draw @ 90

And finally Collingwood SU @ 2.5, Collingwood 24.5+ @ 8, Collingwood 39.5+ @ 22

This seems to me to be at worst a 50/50 game for the Pies. I don't get why their odds are so out.

Greenwood to shut down one of the Cat mids.

Geelong's selected team is neither tall enough to quell the Pies size or fast enough to outrun them imo.
 

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
46,829
54,801
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Here's my bets for tonight.

Cox 2+ @ 5 (SB), 3+ @ 19 (TAB), 4+ @ 67 (SB).

Decided not to load up, only put a little bit on each, the odds seem too good to be true.

I know how illogical that sounds but I don't trust SB, their models and statisticians must know something I don't.

View attachment 982025

Three small SB 'lose one leg get money back' multis:

Coll SU, Under 118.5, Tuohy AGS @ 16

Hawkins 2+, De Goey 2+, Stephenson 2+ @ 25

Hawkins AGS, De Goey AGS, draw @ 90

And finally Collingwood SU @ 2.5, Collingwood 24.5+ @ 8, Collingwood 39.5+ @ 22

This seems to me to be at worst a 50/50 game for the Pies. I don't get why their odds are so out.

Greenwood to shut down one of the Cat mids.

Geelong's selected team is neither tall enough to quell the Pies size or fast enough to outrun them imo.
This is what Sportsbet has planned for your ship.

 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
37,053
29,988
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Im surprised at the odds too tbh.

Cox is a great overhead mark and this was DeGoey's strength in the last time they played them, where Cox didnt play.

The game should be played in less dewy conditions too given the timeslot as well.
he did nothing in the 2018 grand final didn’t he after tearing the tiges a new one in the prelim?

just flukes a good game every now and then
 

Browney2006

Premiership Player
Jun 4, 2006
3,395
423
AFL Club
Essendon
Here's my bets for tonight.

Cox 2+ @ 5 (SB), 3+ @ 19 (TAB), 4+ @ 67 (SB).

Decided not to load up, only put a little bit on each, the odds seem too good to be true.

I know how illogical that sounds but I don't trust SB, their models and statisticians must know something I don't.

View attachment 982025

Three small SB 'lose one leg get money back' multis:

Coll SU, Under 118.5, Tuohy AGS @ 16

Hawkins 2+, De Goey 2+, Stephenson 2+ @ 25

Hawkins AGS, De Goey AGS, draw @ 90

And finally Collingwood SU @ 2.5, Collingwood 24.5+ @ 8, Collingwood 39.5+ @ 22

This seems to me to be at worst a 50/50 game for the Pies. I don't get why their odds are so out.

Greenwood to shut down one of the Cat mids.

Geelong's selected team is neither tall enough to quell the Pies size or fast enough to outrun them imo.
he’s drifted to $76 for 4+ now

you can actually SGM him scoring 2+, 3+ & 4+ for $88 ($103) boosted and be eligible for the bonus bet if one leg fails promo
 

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