AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)

[Robo87]

Port are coming in already.

Into $1.92 SB, $1.85 TAB

2u port @1.95 b365.

 

[BloodRet]

Wouldn't mind some big juicy cox tomorrow @1.72, 5, 17, 81. Unreal odds coming off his 3 first quarter goals last week

Cox 2
Hawkins 2
De Goey
@11.75 sb

Singles on 2,3,4+ cox

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I know Port are at home but a week ago Richmond were dead set even money for the flag in many people's eyes. $1.80 odd against Poprt is huge value

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Wouldn't mind some big juicy cox tomorrow @1.72, 5, 17, 81. Unreal odds coming off his 3 first quarter goals last week

Cox 2
Hawkins 2
De Goey
@11.75 sb

Singles on 2,3,4+

On the Hawkins 3+ train tomorrow, also on Ablett 1 and 2+. Thing the Cats win so looking at their props.

 

[benji21]

I know Port are at home but a week ago Richmond were dead set even money for the flag in many people's eyes. $1.80 odd against Poprt is huge value

Everyone's been fav this year to be fair haha

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Everyone's been fav this year to be fair haha

Yes but Richmond have for much longer. Rather be with them

 

[benji21]

Yes but Richmond have for much longer. Rather be with them

Same argument can be used for Port being top of the ladder all year

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Same argument can be used for Port being top of the ladder all year

Not sure they have been favs at all this year. I could be wrong but unless Lynch gets done my money is on Richmond

 

[benji21]

Not sure they have been favs at all this year. I could be wrong but unless Lynch gets done my money is on Richmond

Fair, I think there's been a lot of to and froing on this board which shows the form lines are a bit muddled. a lot to do with the way this season has been.

 

[Atavistic]

Wouldn't mind some big juicy cox tomorrow @1.72, 5, 17, 81. Unreal odds coming off his 3 first quarter goals last week

Tailed.

 

[mookieb]

Not sure they have been favs at all this year. I could be wrong but unless Lynch gets done my money is on Richmond

Surely it's madness to bet against Rich in a pressure game with their full team?

I'm also not sure it's a great advantage having two weeks off in three.

I have Bris ahead of Port and the two reasons for me Bris beat them was poor discipline and forward structure. They likely won't give away stupid 50's and Lynch fixes their forward structure beautifully.

There is also the possibility that Port simply don't handle the pressure in a big game given they haven't played a lot of finals.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Wouldn't mind some big juicy cox tomorrow @1.72, 5, 17, 81. Unreal odds coming off his 3 first quarter goals last week

Surprising odds, thanks for sharing, I've put a few bob on Cox 3+ @ 19 (TAB).

 

[Robo87]

Wouldn't mind some big juicy cox tomorrow @1.72, 5, 17, 81. Unreal odds coming off his 3 first quarter goals last week

yea you can also get cox ags @1.80 tab/PB .
Im Onboard cox too. 2u @1.80tab, 1u @5sb, 0.5u @19tab, 0.1u @81sb
Alright, if a few of us are getting on this one- no more freakin' trains.. "We're gonna need a bigger boat"
AKA the M.S. COX..


[side note- Lads also has Danger Vs Cox in Goals H2H which seems an interesting comparison- danger who struggles with accurate set shots at goal vs cox -a tall outmarking fwd who shows he can kick 3g in a quarter..
i think Cox could possibly be the better pick here @2.40 (vs danger @2.75, draw @3)]

 

[mookieb]

Saints o49.5 points looks decent.

6 goals 13. Ouch.

 

[mookieb]

I was looking at only each sides previous 6 games.

Cats beat the Crows (without a win) that pushed them for 3 quarters, beat the Dogs after being down by over 5 goals at QT, smashed the Dons but was also smashed by the Tigers with 1g to HT, narrowly beat the Swans and got rolled by the Power.

Pies beat the Roos and Blues, lost to the Lions by 8pts, beat the Suns, lost to the Power by 16 and beat the Eagles in Perth. Past 6 games at GABBA have been 4W, 2L.

I think for me the travel factor is the biggest issue for the Pies. Traveling from QLD to Perth back to QLD may take its toll.

I don't see anything special in Coll's form except for the last game where there ball movement was a lot faster and Cox played well. Both teams played Port in important games and both came up short and you could argue that Geel might have been a bit more unlucky with their kicking.

I'm undecided on whether Geel have tailed off or just had a rough patch. Thrashed by Rich - happens a lot, obv. terrible vs Syd, but arguably not too bad against Port.

In a 50:50 game though catching +6.5 doesn't look bad.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Robo87

 

[The_Steadier]

Port value?

View attachment 981501

If you like port against the tigs, I'd be more inclined to take them at 4.20 (lads) for the flag.

If they beat the tigs, you'd get a decent cashout option to contemplate before the GF presumably.

 

[Chubberson]

$2.20 for Port 1-39 on SB. Richmond looked to be showing some signs of fatigue. 2u.

1.5u on Woods+6.5, Daicos 15, Treloar 20. SB 2.71 boosted.

 

[iluvparis]

If you like port against the tigs, I'd be more inclined to take them at 4.20 (lads) for the flag.

If they beat the tigs, you'd get a decent cashout option to contemplate before the GF presumably.

Or you could just back them H2H?!

 

[The_Steadier]

Or you could just back them H2H?!

They are going to be a lot shorter than 4.20 for the flag if they get past the tigers- probably half those odds at most.

Backing them now at 4.20 for the flag gives you a shot at juicy odds if they win the whole thing, with the option of just taking the cashout after a prelim win which would likely be around the current H2H rate.

 

[cutterman]

They are going to be a lot shorter than 4.20 for the flag if they get past the tigers- probably half those odds at most.

Backing them now at 4.20 for the flag gives you a shot at juicy odds if they win the whole thing, with the option of just taking the cashout after a prelim win which would likely be around the current H2H rate.

 

[The_Steadier]

If you are of the opinion that port could do a number on the tigs and/or there is any chance the lions might not breeze through to the GF- I'm all ears as to why this isn't a half decent strategy?

Sure if port aren't terribly convincing in beating the tigs and brisbane comfortably account for cats or pies- then there is likely no difference between cashing out port after the prelims vs just betting on the H2H in the prelim.

But if port beat the tigers well and/or brisbane struggle against the cats or pies... or even LOSE to them?!- port will be either short odds or crazy short odds (if bris lost) for the flag.

So at worst it's the same as making a H2H bet, at best you get port for the flag @ 4.20 against the pies or cats.

Still rubbing your head?

 

[cutterman]

If you are of the opinion that port could do a number on the tigs and/or there is any chance the lions might not breeze through to the GF- I'm all ears as to why this isn't a half decent strategy?

Sure if port aren't terribly convincing in beating the tigs and brisbane comfortably account for cats or pies- then there is likely no difference between cashing out port after the prelims vs just betting on the H2H in the prelim.

But if port beat the tigers well and/or brisbane struggle against the cats or pies... or even LOSE to them?!- port will be either short odds or crazy short odds (if bris lost) for the flag.

So at worst it's the same as making a H2H bet, at best you get port for the flag @ 4.20 against the pies or cats.

Still rubbing your head?

If you’re backing them for the flag with the sole purpose of taking the cash out before the GF you’re taking the bookies margin twice.

You bet into a market with the overround of a futures market, then you cop at least a 10%-15% hit on the cash out (probably more). You’d be better off backing Port head to head in a 102% market and taking the money and running.

 

[GROTTO]

If you’re backing them for the flag with the sole purpose of taking the cash out before the GF you’re taking the bookies margin twice.

You bet into a market with the overround of a futures market, then you cop at least a 10%-15% hit on the cash out (probably more). You’d be better off backing Port head to head in a 102% market and taking the money and running.

+1

Aside from losing value, I would also encourage punters to be very weary as not all books offer cashout for some of these "future" bets.

I know TAB dont, well at least for me they havent.

If your sole intention is to cashout after the Prelim by taking Port to win the Flag, I strongly suggest punters take Port SU as mentioned earlier. This is actually the correct strategy as you mentioned due to the hit.

There is also the remote possibility that Port's odds to win the GF may move out, whereby you would lose out if you went for a cashout. It would probably only take an injury to one or two key players for this play out.

 

[The_Steadier]

If you’re backing them for the flag with the sole purpose of taking the cash out before the GF you’re taking the bookies margin twice.

You bet into a market with the overround of a futures market, then you cop at least a 10%-15% hit on the cash out (probably more). You’d be better off backing Port head to head in a 102% market and taking the money and running.

But the potential difference in ports flag price now (4.20) vs in the worst case scenario- ie port scrape past the tigs and bris breeze into the GF covers those bookies margins x2... meaning that sure- if that happens, you're no better off than just betting H2H.

But if port are very strong in their prelim and/or bris aren't- or even lose theirs, you're in front... irrespective of bookie margins x2.

It's not about taking port with the sole intention of taking a cashout- it's about the likely cashout being at worst the same as taking them as a H2H.

But with the added benefit of getting further ahead if port are strong and/or the lions are weak or out in prelims.