AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)

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cutterman

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Why
But the potential difference in ports flag price now (4.20) vs in the worst case scenario- ie port scrape past the tigs and bris breeze into the GF covers those bookies margins x2... meaning that sure- if that happens, you're no better off than just betting H2H.

But if port are very strong in their prelim and/or bris aren't- or even lose theirs, you're in front... irrespective of bookie margins x2.

It's not about taking port with the sole intention of taking a cashout- it's about the likely cashout being at worst the same as taking them as a H2H.

But with the added benefit of getting further ahead if port are strong and/or the lions are weak or out in prelims.
Why don’t you just take Port to win by X margin then?

The figures aren’t with you by backing them to win the flag to cash out, you’re looking at a 20-25% margin to beat vs a 2% margin.
 

The_Steadier

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Why


Why don’t you just take Port to win by X margin then?

The figures aren’t with you by backing them to win the flag to cash out, you’re looking at a 20-25% margin to beat vs a 2% margin.
If port come in from $4.20 into circa $1.80 after a prelim win, I'd expect the cashout figure to be at least the equivalent of taking them H2H in the prelim.

If they are better than circa $1.80 after a prelim (via multiple possible ways depending on what happens in the prelims), you're further ahead than simply placing a H2H.
 

NonPhixion

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If port come in from $4.20 into circa $1.80 after a prelim win, I'd expect the cashout figure to be at least the equivalent of taking them H2H in the prelim.

If they are better than circa $1.80 after a prelim (via multiple possible ways depending on what happens in the prelims), you're further ahead than simply placing a H2H.
Dude please listen to everyone. This strategy won’t be a profitable long-term one. Just take Port H2H
 

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The_Steadier

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Dude please listen to everyone. This strategy won’t be a profitable long-term one. Just take Port H2H
Whose saying long term?
Not me.
I'm talking about this one instance of port being $4.20 to win the flag.
I'm not saying anything about this being a good strategy generally at all.
I'm talking about 1 single bet.

Let me ask you a question- if port beat the tigers next week, what odds do you think they will be at to win the GF?

If the numbers stack up- who cares how they came about stacking up?

There has not been a single argument that shows it's any worse than taking them H2H.

And I've outlined scenarios where it can work out better than H2H, depending on what happens in the prelims.

So why are you worried?

FYI i'm not even necessarily interested in backing port H2H this week or for the flag at 4.20.
My original comment was that if anyone was interested in port H2H this week- the flag @ 4.20 could be a more lucrative alternative.
 
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iluvparis

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They are going to be a lot shorter than 4.20 for the flag if they get past the tigers- probably half those odds at most.

Backing them now at 4.20 for the flag gives you a shot at juicy odds if they win the whole thing, with the option of just taking the cashout after a prelim win which would likely be around the current H2H rate.
Yeah you can get the same 'option' by backing them to win the prelim and then choosing to bet on them or not in the granny. Even if the price halves the cashout value won't double.
 

The_Steadier

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Even if the price halves the cashout value won't double.
Of this I am aware.
But I'm talking port going into a GF at 1.80 or better.
So worst case at $1.80, that is far less than half $4.20.

So despite paying bookie margin x2, the cashout offer if port are at 1.80 will be at least the equivalent of a H2H bet this week.

So it's a breakeven if port go into the GF at 1.80.... if they go in under that, you're ahead. (maybe the lions get knocked out or are unimpressive or cop key injuries or port look great against the tigs?)

Yeah you can get the same 'option' by backing them to win the prelim and then choosing to bet on them or not in the granny
This is true, you do still have that option- but using your method, if you take up the option of backing port after the prelim you win much less money than my method.

Eg:
Your method:
1u port H2H at 1.88 this week,
Then
1u H2H at 1.80 next week =
1.68u potential profit if they win the flag.

My method: 2u port for flag at 4.20=
6.4u potential profit if they win the flag.
 
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cutterman

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Of this I am aware.
But I'm talking port going into a GF at 1.80 or better.
So worst case at $1.80, that is far less than half $4.20.

So despite paying bookie margin x2, the cashout offer if port are at 1.80 will be at least the equivalent of a H2H bet this week.

So it's a breakeven if port go into the GF at 1.80.... if they go in under that, you're ahead. (maybe the lions get knocked out or are unimpressive or cop key injuries or port look great against the tigs?)
You won’t get cashout of Port at equivalent of 1.80 unless they are at least 2.30 to win the GF, why you wouldn’t take 1.95 now has got me stumped. There’s a reason bookies love cash out
 

The_Steadier

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why you wouldn’t take 1.95 now has got me stumped.
Because of this:

This is true, you do still have that option- but using your method, if you take up the option of backing port after the prelim you win much less money than my method.

Eg:
Your method:
1u port H2H at 1.88 this week,
Then
1u H2H at 1.80 next week =
1.68u potential profit if they win the flag.

My method: 2u port for flag at 4.20=
6.4u potential profit if they win the flag.
you get 3.8 times more money if port go onto win the flag than simply placing H2H bets on them this week and after the prelim

I think there is every chance of port being $1.80 or so heading into the GF if they beat the tigers (way under your quoted $2.30 minimum), so it's a free swing at far juicier odds for them to win the flag.
Those jucier odds you could choose to either take up by letting your bet ride, or not take up by taking a cashout.
 
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cutterman

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Because of this:



you get 3.8 times more money if port go onto win the flag than simply placing H2H bets on them this week and after the prelim

I think there is every chance of port being $1.80 or so heading into the GF if they beat the tigers, so it's a free swing at far juicier odds for them to win the flag.
Those jucier odds you could choose to either take up by letting your bet ride, or not take up by taking a cashout.
So you’re backing them for the flag? If you think they’re value for it by all means back them. But if you’re planning to cash out after the prelim, just take the 1.95!
 

iluvparis

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Because of this:



you get 3.8 times more money if port go onto win the flag than simply placing H2H bets on them this week and after the prelim

I think there is every chance of port being $1.80 or so heading into the GF if they beat the tigers (way under your quoted $2.30 minimum), so it's a free swing at far juicier odds for them to win the flag.
Those jucier odds you could choose to either take up by letting your bet ride, or not take up by taking a cashout.
You realise you should be putting 2 on them this week and then 3.76 on them in the prelim for a fair comparison right?
 

The_Steadier

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So you’re backing them for the flag? If you think they’re value for it by all means back them. But if you’re planning to cash out after the prelim, just take the 1.95!
I'd be doing both- taking them at effectively 1.95 AND giving myself the OPTION of taking them at 3.8 times better odds than they will be after the prelim H2H.
 

The_Steadier

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You realise you should be putting 2 on them this week and then 3.76 on them in the prelim for a fair comparison right?
No because the risk profiles aren't the same.
You cant say that you put 2u on your method in week one because that's an all or nothing bet- mine in week 1 isn't.

The 2u using my method is not an all or nothing bet- I have the option of bailing out (via cashout) after week 1 at a payout value equal to your H2H odds.

You have half a point that you could potentially roll your winnings from week 1 into your week 2 bet.

But you most definately cannot say that it is apples and apples by you starting by betting 2u in week 1.

If you were to roll your week 1 winnings into week 2 using your method, it would revise my 3.8 times jucier payout down to merely tripling yours.
 

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iluvparis

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No because the risk profiles aren't the same.
You cant say that you put 2u on your method in week one because that's an all or nothing bet- mine in week 1 isn't.

The 2u using my method is not an all or nothing bet- I have the option of bailing out (via cashout) after week 1 at a payout value equal to your H2H odds.

You have half a point that you could potentially roll your winnings from week 1 into your week 2 bet.

But you most definately cannot say that it is apples and apples by you starting by betting 2u in week 1.

If you were to roll your week 1 winnings into week 2 using your method, it would revise my 3.8 times jucier payout down to merely tripling yours.
The comparison is utterly false because one bet risks 2 units and the other risks 1 - so no sh*t the one that risks 2 has a much better payout
 

Robo87

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also on Ablett 1 and 2+.
Alright you got me, im taking another shot on ablett just because his odds are reasonable and you never know when he can spark some magic, hopefully in a final. 🤞
1u ablett ags @1.90 lads
0.5u ablett 2g+ @5.75 lads
i've now got a goalscorer play with each team tonight so hoping atleast 1 comes off, if not both. (also its heaps more interesting to watch.)
 

The_Steadier

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The comparison is utterly false because one bet risks 2 units and the other risks 1 - so no sh*t the one that risks 2 has a much better payout
You are confused because we are talking about comparing potential profits assuming port win their prelim.
But you are including the risks of port losing their prelim which is not part of the comparison.

If the risk of port losing their prelim was part of that comparision, the week 2 in the comparison simply wouldn't exist

The bets in the comparison are both betting 2 units on the same outcome- port winning the flag.

If have 2u today and you want to bet on port winning the flag- you have 2 possible avenues.

1.Placing it all on them for the flag now
or
2. Placing some of it on them to win their prelim and the remainder on them to win the flag

If the comparison is utterly false, which other ways are there to bet on port winning the flag?
 
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iluvparis

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You are confused because we are talking about comparing potential profits assuming port win their prelim.
But you are including the risks of port losing their prelim which is not part of the comparison.

If the risk of port losing their prelim was part of that comparision, the week 2 in the comparison simply wouldn't exist

The bets in the comparison are both betting 2 units on the same outcome- port winning the flag.

If have 2u today and you want to bet on port winning the flag- you have 2 possible avenues.

1.Placing it all on them for the flag now
or
2. Placing some of it on them to win their prelim and the remainder on them to win the flag

If the comparison is utterly false, which other ways are there to bet on port winning the flag?
But they can't win the flag without winning the prelim so you may as well just jam the 2 units on now
 

The_Steadier

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But they can't win the flag without winning the prelim so you may as well just jam the 2 units on now
But then that makes your bet an all or nothing bet versus mine bet which is only risking 1 of my 2 units.
I'm only risking half my units in week 1 (so long as port are no greater than around $2.30 after the prelim thanks to cashout), whereas you are risking all your units in week 1
 

mookieb

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But then that makes your bet an all or nothing bet versus mine bet which is only risking 1 of my 2 units.
I'm only risking half my units in week 1 (so long as port are no greater than around $2.30 after the prelim thanks to cashout), whereas you are risking all your units in week 1
Is this topic just about done?
 

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