AFL 2020 - AFL Round 17 (no aftertiming allowed)

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md20

Debutant
Apr 24, 2020
103
107
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Not much really stands out to me this game so I'm going to stick with what is known.

A. Treloar Most Disp. Group A - $2.45 (Lads)

Has done this 4/6 games this year with an average of 29 disposals a game.

With a smaller stake on Pendlebury in the same market @ $4.50

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

BuddysBiggestFan

Premiership Player
Oct 24, 2008
4,142
3,606
Hawthorn
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Surely Pies come out and smack GC after their bye and 2 guns back in side.

AGS on Lads are stingiest I’ve seen.

I like Treloar 30+ @ $2.55 and 35+ @ $6, Lads. Got 42 against them last year.

De Goey fresh and to tear them apart. Odds are horrible so had a little on 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ on Lads.

Corbett showed a bit last week so AGS @ $2.10 and 2+ $8 on SB.
 

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Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Noob alert! Hey guys, Apologies if not the best thread, but been following this one and only just registered this morning as a member.

Can someone break down the Saints scenario now to make the eight, if they lose etc what has to happen for them to fall out. Have a nice 7 leg futures multi thats ultimately pending on them for the return.
 

demon_fanatic

Club Legend
May 8, 2006
2,310
645
bayswater
AFL Club
Melbourne
Understand where your coming from. Buckley has tended to play players out of position . eg Stephenson has spent time in midfield this season, Elliott in midfield.......they are a tricky team to predict.
Noob alert! Hey guys, Apologies if not the best thread, but been following this one and only just registered this morning as a member.

Can someone break down the Saints scenario now to make the eight, if they lose etc what has to happen for them to fall out. Have a nice 7 leg futures multi thats ultimately pending on them for the return.
Think Dogs need to beat Freo and dees beat Essendon by at least 5 goals to make up the percentage if Saints lose
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Seems completely possible, so I don't get why the Saints are still 1.08 for the eight, and $8.00 to miss it. I have a 1550 return if they make it, sacrifice 200 and hedge ? Seems clear hey
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
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Seems completely possible, so I don't get why the Saints are still 1.08 for the eight, and $8.00 to miss it. I have a 1550 return if they make it, sacrifice 200 and hedge ? Seems clear hey
Whats the all up price on the individual results happening?
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
1,445
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
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Noob alert! Hey guys, Apologies if not the best thread, but been following this one and only just registered this morning as a member.

Can someone break down the Saints scenario now to make the eight, if they lose etc what has to happen for them to fall out. Have a nice 7 leg futures multi thats ultimately pending on them for the return.

For the Saints to Miss the Finals:

Scenario 1
* Saints LOSE against GWS
* Collingwood WIN 1 of 2 matches against Gold Coast or Port Adelaide
* Bulldogs WIN against Freo
* Melbourne WIN against Essendon

Scenario 2
* If the Saints LOSE against GWS by roughly 8 goals or more (a score of say Saints 50-101 GWS, would mean GWS overtake them on the ladder)
* 2 of the 3 teams win at least 1 of the following games: Collingwood WIN 1 of their 2 games, Bulldogs WIN against Freo, Melbourne WIN against Essendon



(PS: A Saints draw all but qualifies them for the finals. )
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
For the Saints to Miss the Finals:

Scenario 1
* Saints LOSE against GWS
* Collingwood WIN 1 of 2 matches against Gold Coast or Port Adelaide
* Bulldogs WIN against Freo
* Melbourne WIN against Essendon

Scenario 2
* If the Saints LOSE against GWS by roughly 8 goals or more (a score of say Saints 50-101 GWS, would mean GWS overtake them on the ladder)
* 2 of the 3 teams win at least 1 of the following games: Collingwood WIN 1 of their 2 games, Bulldogs WIN against Freo, Melbourne WIN against Essendon



(PS: A Saints draw all but qualifies them for the finals. )
So would u hedge or ride it out ? I'm already bald as it is.
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Sorry guys didn't mean to hammer the thread with my dribble on my first day.
Been following the weekly threads for a few weeks now, some handy info here.

Those scenarios seem likely to me, I don't get the odds thats all.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
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In Scenario 1 case


Saints v GWS is a 50 50 game
Collingwood should be an underdog against the number 1 ranked Port team. But Port may look to play a 2nd string team or a 'rested team'. Id say that would be a 60 40 game in favour of Port
Bulldogs should be a 70% chance of beating Freo
Melbourne should also be about a 70% chance of beating the Bombers

Predicting the odds in the future, reckon for that to happen its roughly around $4.60 for the Saints to bow out of the finals race, given they lose to the Giants by under 8 goals.
 

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NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
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an important factor also, is Melbourne play on the Saturday, and the Saints play on Friday. So Melbourne in a way have a bit more control over their destiny.


for Melbourne to overtake the Saints on the ladder, as an example Saints to lose by 4 goals, and Melbourne need to win by 4 goals. All up, a scoring differential of +8 goals needs to be made up, which i think could happen. (Saints lose by 1 goal+ Dees win by 7 goals, Saints lose by 2 goals+Dees win by 6 goals, Saints lose by 3 goals+Dees win by 5 goals etc)
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
an important factor also, is Melbourne play on the Saturday, and the Saints play on Friday. So Melbourne in a way have a bit more control over their destiny.


for Melbourne to overtake the Saints on the ladder, as an example Saints to lose by 4 goals, and Melbourne need to win by 4 goals. All up, a scoring differential of +8 goals needs to be made up, which i think could happen. (Saints lose by 1 goal+ Dees win by 7 goals, Saints lose by 2 goals+Dees win by 6 goals, Saints lose by 3 goals+Dees win by 5 goals etc)
Yeah so say Saints lost, even in a close match, if Dee's and Pies and Dogs win one match - gone !
Dees will have a target, i see what ur saying.
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
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Auckland, New Zealand
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Yeah so say Saints lost, even in a close match, if Dee's and Pies and Dogs win one match - gone !
Dees will have a target, i see what ur saying.
Reckon a fair price for Demons to beat Essendon is around $1.42

Same too for Bulldogs to beat Freo at around $1.42

I'd be surprised if they started higher than that.

Saints v GWS is a coin toss, they should get back Coniglio and Riccardi for that game.
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Reckon a fair price for Demons to beat Essendon is around $1.42

Same too for Bulldogs to beat Freo at around $1.42

I'd be surprised if they started higher than that.

Saints v GWS is a coin toss, they should get back Coniglio and Riccardi for that game.
Just watching the flow of the games lately, for the Saints, they have been very up n down each game. Looked home for mine against the Eagles.
I know the faves and shorties are never guaranteed, but those look scary haha
 

NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,881
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I quite like the bet:

GWS Win in a close contest, Collingwood to win at least 1 of their 2 matches, Bulldogs to beat Freo, Melbourne to beat Ess

in that case the ladder ranking would be : Coll 6th, Bulldogs 7th, Melbourne 8th, which would push the Saints out.

if you put that in a multi you will probably only get around $4.60 , whereas you can bet on the Saints to miss the 8 which pays $8.
 

Newborn

Draftee
Sep 14, 2020
18
9
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I quite like the bet:

GWS Win in a close contest, Collingwood to win 1 of their 2 matches, Bulldogs to beat Freo, Melbourne to beat Ess

in that case the ladder ranking would be : Coll 6th, Bulldogs 7th, Melbourne 8th, which would push the Saints out.

if you put that in a multi you will probably only get around $4.60 , whereas you can bet on the Saints to miss the 8 which pays $8.
Hammered by the forum today haha....

Its not a big loss either, if i cipher 150 or 200 off the 1550 and hedge.
 

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