AFL 2020 - AFL Round 2

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
44,090
49,851
AFL Club
Adelaide
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Bet365's early AFL payout might be the worst promo i've ever seen.
Early payout when your team is up by 32 points.
How often is a team going to back from that far behind with 16min quarters? 1 in a 100?
Agree, I think 365 used to have it around 4 goals from memory.

Both teams were fortunate to even get to 32 points last night let alone lead by this margin. :drunk:

With that said, Pies somehow managed to lead by as much as 24 points last night.:think:
 

DangerSloane

Hall of Famer
Jul 13, 2012
43,068
20,546
AFL Club
Adelaide
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Charlotte Hornets, Chelsea, Striker
Hey guys is there a thread or does anyone play draftstars/moneyball etc?
Would love to discuss picks, contests etc.
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,311
3,907
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Seemed pretty clear last night that scoring dried up once fatigue set in with strong defensive structures.
Given the nature of the teams I can see tonights game panning out very similar.
Highest scoring half 1st $1.94 - SB
I like it as a SGM leg because it multiplies well with everything
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
20,444
25,837
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
Seemed pretty clear last night that scoring dried up once fatigue set in with strong defensive structures.
Given the nature of the teams I can see tonights game panning out very similar.
Highest scoring half 1st $1.94 - SB
I like it as a SGM leg because it multiplies well with everything
Points line is 124.5 on sportsbet,
If teams struggling to score is a trend, that looks very playable for an under at cold GMHBA
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,830
985
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Last year a lot of the total match points line were around the 150-155 mark set by the bookies.

The average from 198 home and away matches in 2019 was 160.82 points during the season.

With the matches being reduced to 16 minute quarters, if we are basing it on averages (64/80) x 160.82 points= 128.65 points should be the line.
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
2,830
985
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
The handicap for the Brisbane v Fremantle line is 128.5 points.

Freo had the 3rd weakest offence in 2019, if we are basing it on form, Unders should be the play. Nothing in the off season suggest to me the game plan will change this season under a new coach. If so, it will take time for the players to play with a pattern under Longmuir.
 

Islanda22

All Australian
Feb 11, 2014
763
285
Australia
AFL Club
Melbourne
Last year a lot of the total match points line were around the 150-155 mark set by the bookies.

The average from 198 home and away matches in 2019 was 160.82 points during the season.

With the matches being reduced to 16 minute quarters, if we are basing it on averages (64/80) x 160.82 points= 128.65 points should be the line.
Take my $$$ haha
 

freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
5,332
6,075
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Fremantle
The handicap for the Brisbane v Fremantle line is 128.5 points.

Freo had the 3rd weakest offence in 2019, if we are basing it on form, Unders should be the play. Nothing in the off season suggest to me the game plan will change this season under a new coach. If so, it will take time for the players to play with a pattern under Longmuir.
Freo will be lucky to score 50, Brissy could pile on 80 though, likely less, U128.5 definitely seems a decent bet
 

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mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
3,803
5,284
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Last year a lot of the total match points line were around the 150-155 mark set by the bookies.

The average from 198 home and away matches in 2019 was 160.82 points during the season.

With the matches being reduced to 16 minute quarters, if we are basing it on averages (64/80) x 160.82 points= 128.65 points should be the line.
There's more to it than that, though.

Reduced quarters means teams can effectively flood for an entire quarter, four quarters in a row.

There's no 'junk time' any more. Team strategies will change accordingly, we saw it already last night.

72 points may be anomalously low but I expect we'll see sub 100 point totals whenever strong / mature teams play one another.

There doesn't seem to be much value in the total points markets so I'm not going to load up, but my bet is we'll see more <100 totals this week than >100.

It wouldn't surprise me if we notice a heap of free kicks paid in front of goal, an AFL directive to increase scores. Ten goals per match won't pay the bills.
 

mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
3,803
5,284
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I've noticed the odds for a draw tonight are tighter than at this time yesterday.

I got @50 for the Coll/Rich draw, and then @55 for the Haw/Geel draw, both on betfair.

Today for Haw/Geel I see @40 for the draw.

Are people waking up to the fact that shorter quarters mean closer scorelines and a higher potential for draws?

Add in the catch-up mode the umpires seem to play when a team is behind and 2020 might be the season of draws.
 

targett

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2008
1,315
1,054
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Collingwood
I've noticed the odds for a draw tonight are tighter than at this time yesterday.

I got @50 for the Coll/Rich draw, and then @55 for the Haw/Geel draw, both on betfair.

Today for Haw/Geel I see @40 for the draw.

Are people waking up to the fact that shorter quarters mean closer scorelines and a higher potential for draws?

Add in the catch-up mode the umpires seem to play when a team is behind and 2020 might be the season of draws.
Yes Indeed

coll1.PNG
 

freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
5,332
6,075
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
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East Fremantle
Would of thought Richmond and Collingwood scored more than 36 last night too . Cant see Brisbane scoring 80 in the rain all be it against Freo
Yeah my estimates were top end I reckon, 80 top for Brissy and 50 top for Freo, even if both reach max thats barely touching the line.

Line is too high defs take the unders
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,815
1,201
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Freo will be lucky to score 50, Brissy could pile on 80 though, likely less, U128.5 definitely seems a decent bet
Well let's hope unders trend keeps going. I got on for Bris vs Freo and WC vs GC but that was due to forecasted rain. The tight game last night would indicate that scoring might be difficult. Also unders tonight - Clarko with plenty of time to prepare and two teams with better backlines than forward lines.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,815
1,201
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Geelong H2H 2.5 units @ $1.73
I like Hawks in this one. Won 3 of last 4, finished last season off much better than Cats, better form in round 1, pretty similar matchups but think Hawks midfield might get on top and I rate Hawks a slightly better team. Obviously having the game at SS helps Geel though so might have a little on the win and a little on the line.

Almost forgot the kicker - does this game count as Geel coming off a bye? Hopefully they come out sluggish.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
20,444
25,837
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
I like Hawks in this one. Won 3 of last 4, finished last season off much better than Cats, better form in round 1, pretty similar matchups but think Hawks midfield might get on top and I rate Hawks a slightly better team. Obviously having the game at SS helps Geel though so might have a little on the win and a little on the line.

Almost forgot the kicker - does this game count as Geel coming off a bye? Hopefully they come out sluggish.
Only took the Cats due to being in Geelong where it's very hard to win (maybe easier with no home crowd) and O'meara missing.
Dangers 250th too.

Thought 1.73 was a good price.
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
694
395
AFL Club
Fremantle
Only took the Cats due to being in Geelong where it's very hard to win (maybe easier with no home crowd) and O'meara missing.
Yeah I'm on the Cats purely because its at home plus O'meara out. Hard to go off form, Cats lost to GWS first round who normally destroy teams at home. Hawks beat Brissy who have shaky MCG form.
 

anabac

All Australian
Feb 21, 2011
722
373
banana boat
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I've noticed the odds for a draw tonight are tighter than at this time yesterday.

I got @50 for the Coll/Rich draw, and then @55 for the Haw/Geel draw, both on betfair.

Today for Haw/Geel I see @40 for the draw.

Are people waking up to the fact that shorter quarters mean closer scorelines and a higher potential for draws?

Add in the catch-up mode the umpires seem to play when a team is behind and 2020 might be the season of draws.
We get it. You backed the draw last night
 

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