AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[Sausage Legs]

Tempted to take the 3.40 on nic nat for eags, with 2 games left and half the team out.

 

[jack 231]

Neale bloody quiet so far. The Plot thickens

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Neale bloody quiet so far. The Plot thickens

They’ve played 5 minutes

 

[onthehill24]

They’ve played 5 minutes

And now on 6 possies

 

[jack 231]

Huge first quarter from neale

 

[toxic]

Huge first quarter from neale

Wouldn't have been in the top 5

But is building

 

[onthehill24]

Wouldn't have been in the top 5

But is building

17 possies now

 

[jack 231]

This is the round they will declare Neale the winner

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Not a lot
Recall a 3 vote game in 2018 I think. He stands out when he wears long sleeves. Similar position to Guthrie though. Never massive pollers but had breakout years in regards to Brownlow medal / individual performance

Menegola polled 7 in 2018; 6 in 2017. Also had very stiff competition in those years from the likes of Dangerfield Ablett and Selwood - the latter two will not feature this year.

 

[Benjo_]

This is the round they will declare Neale the winner

Will leave it til the end of the game to see whether Neale continues to dominate. Hopefully Touk wraps him up for the sake of my Brownlow Boak bet

 

[jack 231]

Sportsbet have a reputation for paying out early. Maybe put your Neale bets there in case

 

[Gazza Guru]

3/4 time in the Bris game and they might as well award Neale the Brownlow after this.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Neale has certainly laid down a gauntlet for others.....but I will post rounds 14 and 15 tomorrow out of interest for posters.

 

[Gift]

Neale has the brownlow locked in now I reckon. You can tell from this match that GC are looking forward to the season ending and did not try at all in the match even though they had a 10 day break vs 5.

Lions have Swans and Carlton next so reckon they wont give a crap either so Neale will just rack it up freely for votes.

 

[NYRB]

Neale 3, Zorko 2, Hipwood 1

Zorko had more influence with his earlier 1st half goals .

Zorko had 2 goals to McCluggage 1 goal. Zorko had 3 less disposals than McCluggage. But in terms of game impact, just felt as a spectator Zorko had more influence to the match. Hipwood, Rayner and McCluggage batting for that 1 vote in my opinion.

 

[NYRB]

Im tempted to give Hipwood the 2 votes, for 10 marks.

But just get this nagging feeling the umpires will look at a combination of goals+ disposals and its traditionally been a midfielder award.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 14

HAW v ESS
3 Z Merrett (Ess)
2 J Daniher (Ess)
1 J Worpel (Haw)

RICH v WCE
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 T Cotchin (Rich)
1 T Kelly (WCE)

WB v GEEL
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 L Hunter (WB)
1 R Stanley (Geel)

PA v SYD
3 R Gray (PA)
2 C Dixon (PA)
1 J Lloyd (Syd)

FREO v GWS
3 J Cameron (GWS)
2 T Taranto (GWS)
1 J Riccardi (GWS)

MELB v ST K
3 C Petracca (Melb)
2 S May (Melb)
1 J Steele (St K)

CARL v COLL
3 B Grundy (Coll)
2 J Crisp (Coll)
1 J Noble (Coll)

GC v NM
3 B Ainsworth (GC)
2 H Greenwood (GC)
1 J Witts (GC)


LEADERBOARD

21 L Neale (Bris)
17 C Petracca (Melb)
16 J Steele (St K)
15 T Boak (PA) Z Merrett* (Ess)
14 D Martin (Rich) P Cripps (Carl) C Guthrie (Geel) S Menegola (Geel)

 

[Sausage Legs]

ROUND 14

HAW v ESS
3 Z Merrett (Ess)
2 J Daniher (Ess)
1 J Worpel (Haw)

RICH v WCE
3 D Martin (Rich)
2 T Cotchin (Rich)
1 T Kelly (WCE)

WB v GEEL
3 P Dangerfield (Geel)
2 L Hunter (WB)
1 R Stanley (Geel)

PA v SYD
3 R Gray (PA)
2 C Dixon (PA)
1 J Lloyd (Syd)

FREO v GWS
3 J Cameron (GWS)
2 T Taranto (GWS)
1 J Riccardi (GWS)

MELB v ST K
3 C Petracca (Melb)
2 S May (Melb)
1 J Steele (St K)

CARL v COLL
3 B Grundy (Coll)
2 J Crisp (Coll)
1 J Noble (Coll)

GC v NM
3 B Ainsworth (GC)
2 H Greenwood (GC)
1 J Witts (GC)


LEADERBOARD

21 L Neale (Bris)
17 C Petracca (Melb)
16 J Steele (St K)
15 T Boak (PA) Z Merrett* (Ess)
14 D Martin (Rich) P Cripps (Carl) C Guthrie (Geel) S Menegola (Geel)

Grundy 3 v blues?

 

[Gazza Guru]

Grundy 3 v blues?

This is all about opinions of course but I clearly had Elliott, Adams and Moore ahead of Grundy in that game.
Mcgrath a massive chance for 3v r14 Haw as well.

 

[shepherdodin]

This is all about opinions of course but I clearly had Elliott, Adams and Moore ahead of Grundy in that game.
Mcgrath a massive chance for 3v r14 Haw as well.

Herald Sun had Adams, Elliott, Walsh.
3AW had Adams, Daicos, Crisp.

FWIW I had Adams, Elliott, Crisp for that game. Didn't have Grundy there, but this is the type of game I may re-watch. Adams polling here/not polling could make a big difference at the end.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Herald Sun had Adams, Elliott, Walsh.
3AW had Adams, Daicos, Crisp.

FWIW I had Adams, Elliott, Crisp for that game. Didn't have Grundy there, but this is the type of game I may re-watch. Adams polling here/not polling could make a big difference at the end.

My system works on certain key indicators which have proven votegetting points in the past BUT of course is never infallible so I guess we will find out on the night.

 

[shepherdodin]

My system works on certain key indicators which have proven votegetting points in the past BUT of course is never infallible so I guess we will find out on the night.

Yeah I don't pretend to have a system other than "what I kinda reckon", and then get reinforcement from coaches/media to see if any of them match up. If they don't - honestly I'll ditch some of my selections if no-one else mentions them and go with the crowd because I don't really have that much confidence in my own opinions.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Yeah I don't pretend to have a system other than "what I kinda reckon", and then get reinforcement from coaches/media to see if any of them match up. If they don't - honestly I'll ditch some of my selections if no-one else mentions them and go with the crowd because I don't really have that much confidence in my own opinions.

The umps have to hand in their votes within an hour after the game and aren't sitting their crunching the numbers. I find it best to do votes strait after watching the game where it's fresh and u have more of a feel for impact than just stats.

 

[jack 231]

The umps have to hand in their votes within an hour after the game and aren't sitting their crunching the numbers. I find it best to do votes strait after watching the game where it's fresh and u have more of a feel for impact than just stats.

Agree
This is what most people forget and dig into the stats and get it so wrong.
Most times I watch a game live I don’t look at stats and get the 3 votes(BOG) right. You get a feel for who played well. Especially at local footy level this is whats relied on- no stats at al

 

[shepherdodin]

Speaking of crunching numbers.... today I was procrastinating at work and calculated the number of tied-winners for each team up to 18 rounds since 1990. Figured I might as well share.

year, num_ties_after_18_rounds
1990 0
1991 1
1992 5
1993 5
1994 3
1995 1
1996 1
1997 0
1998 2
1999 2
2000 1
2001 1
2002 3
2003 2
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 3
2008 1
2009 4
2010 3
2011 1
2012 3
2013 1
2014 3
2015 3
2016 3
2017 3
2018 1
2019 1

What this means: after 18 rounds, this many teams had a dead-heat winner in the brownlow count for that year. Since there are only 18 rounds this year, I thought this was more relevant than the total brownlow counts for each year. I couldn't tell you how many byes (if any) teams had each year, so the votes available might be slightly off, but since there are fewer rounds you would expect more dead-heats due to less overall votes. Since 2010 the average is 2.2. So you can expect up to 3 dead-heats, 4 or 5 is an outlier year. Almost certain to get at least 1 dead heat.