2020 FA, Draft and Trade HYPOTHETICAL thread...now with new DFA speculation!

[Strapping Young Lad]

A good reference point for picks.

 

[Bugs1977]

You're right. And the clubs like Dogs and Pies who need to trade their pick could be the suitors.

I think you can add the Saints to this list. They struggle to kick goals and maybe with Roughie employed there he could he be in either ones ear to make a move. Would pick 14 be enough? Maybe the on trade pick 14 to GWS for Hately or Caldwell. I'd prefer Hately to be honest.

 

[Hot Diggity]

LOL @ Trade Mitchell...

It's not like a sprained ankle where you come back and play with the same confidence.

Think of the guys who've broken legs and came back, it takes time and I'm sure we will see the best of TOM next season.

Trading Croad was tough, but a 2 x BnF in his first 2 years, to go with the Brownlow and being clearly the best player in the league before his busted leg is not who I'd be trading. We sucked last year without him, he's been getting better this year and we will welcome his ~700 possessions next year too.

Of course, his injury is far worse than a sprained ankle. But the questions are:

1. Will he ever get back to his best?
2. If he and Worpel perform a similar role in the midfield, who has more upside and versatility?
3. What are Tom's ambitions? A flag? Unlikely with us in next 5 years - what if a club in the window came in for him?
4. Would trading him enable us to acquire a different type of mid?

As the thread alludes, all hypothetical. But, let's put it out there.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Trade Tom? Lol.

And Gunners and Breust!

Get a whole bunch of picks in, load up on the draft and follow the Demons and Blues lead back to premiership glory!!


oh, wait....

 

[Lawsy]

Of course, his injury is far worse than a sprained ankle. But the questions are:

1. Will he ever get back to his best?
2. If he and Worpel perform a similar role in the midfield, who has more upside and versatility?
3. What are Tom's ambitions? A flag? Unlikely with us in next 5 years - what if a club in the window came in for him?
4. Would trading him enable us to acquire a different type of mid?

As the thread alludes, all hypothetical. But, let's put it out there.

If TOM is clearly not getting back to his best after breaking his leg, he's not worth more than a future 4th then. Hypothetically speaking.
If TOM can get back to his best, he's got way more upside than Worps who has a lot once he has time to gel with TOM.
Guys come back from breaks but they take time to get confidence in their body. It's like Freo trading Fyfe or Brisbane trading Voss when they had years infront of them. Clubs don't trade the best of the best unless forced to and we aren't in that position.
Hypothetical or not.

 

[rjslcM]

If TOM is clearly not getting back to his best after breaking his leg, he's not worth more than a future 4th then. Hypothetically speaking.
If TOM can get back to his best, he's got way more upside than Worps who has a lot once he has time to gel with TOM.
Guys come back from breaks but they take time to get confidence in their body. It's like Freo trading Fyfe or Brisbane trading Voss when they had years infront of them. Clubs don't trade the best of the best unless forced to and we aren't in that position.
Hypothetical or not.

Yeah nah it’s his first season back - kidding ourselves if it was anything more than a year for him to regain confidence. Crazy idea to trade at this stage. Despite it being his first season back, he’s still our leading possession winner. Best Hawthorn player on the ground in over half of our games (R1; R2; R6; R9; R11; R12; R14; R15; R16). Surprisingly his disposal efficiency is higher than it was in 2018. Less tackles per game however the amount is proportional to game time.

Not sure how much more we could expect this year from him.

 

[burner1]

And Gunners and Breust!

Get a whole bunch of picks in, load up on the draft and follow the Demons and Blues lead back to premiership glory!!


oh, wait....

Yeah! Just like we traded out Trent croad and McPharlin to load up in 2001 draft. Or traded out Thompson to allow us to get Lewis in 2004z

Oh, wait....that turned out alright. Maybe we’re not Melbourne?

 

[WWSD]

Trade Mitchell, Gunston and Breust? The list is already lacking talent as it is. Let’s not make it even worse.

 

[PhatHQ]

If they offer a top 5 pick?

Nope... we can get this with future trades and chump change.
we are shot and if the dogs and pies have any balls they will back themselves in for a first Rd swap and some draft currency this year with 3-4rd picks

 

[HAWKSBESTEVA]

If they offer a top 5 pick?

Proven best and fairest , Brownlow winner > a top 5 pick.

 

[Slick]

And Gunners and Breust!

Get a whole bunch of picks in, load up on the draft and follow the Demons and Blues lead back to premiership glory!!


oh, wait....

I could understand the argument to trade Gunston and Breust if we were looking for multiple early picks this season. They both have trade value to a potential contender in 2021 (Geelong, Brisbane and Dogs all have picks they may not use/need). They're either late 20's or early 30's so the argument could be made that they will not be there for our next premiership push and therefore our greatest return for them would be to get what we can get now. Fully understanding it would make us a much worse team in 2021.

In regards to Mitchell, he should not even be considered as a trade-able option for the following reasons:He is a Brownlow medalist, he is recovering from a serious injury so won't bring in a return worthy of his ability, his is in the age bracket where he still has the chance to be part of our next Premiership tilt.

The last reason is the same reason I don't think Hawthorn should entertain any offers on Sicily, O'Meara, Impey, Hardwick, Frost and Wingard.

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Why do i keep clicking on this thread...

I ****ing hate this thread...

Did people honestly think Mitchell was getting back to his best this year? Anyone? Look at Fyfe in 17 coming off a broken leg, significantly worse than his 15 or 18 or 19 and he is the best midfielder of the past 5 years.

 

[HAWKSBESTEVA]

Why do i keep clicking on this thread...

I ******* hate this thread...

Did people honestly think Mitchell was getting back to his best this year? Anyone? Look at Fyfe in 17 coming off a broken leg, significantly worse than his 15 or 18 or 19 and he is the best midfielder of the past 5 years.

Trade all our good players for picks !!! Field a whole side of kids under 19 Guaranteed success ! Worked for gws when they entered the comp...

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Trade all our good players for picks !!! Field a whole side of kids under 19 Guaranteed success ! Worked for gws when they entered the comp...

Strategy literally never fails, it's why Carlton, Gws, Melbourne, Gold Coast are currently all contending for a flag.!

 

[burner1]

Strategy literally never fails, it's why Carlton, Gws, Melbourne, Gold Coast are currently all contending for a flag.!

You can find examples of success or failure for every list strategy. Topping up with proven talent has really worked well for us since 2016?

No list strategy is assured of success - only one team can win. You need to do the right thing for your list at the right time, execute it really well and then combine it with really good development, culture, coaching and leadership and a fair bit of luck.

Would Clarko have won a flag if he went to GWS at end of 2016? Quite Probably (but may have changed up the list as well).

If you have the view we don’t have the squad to win a flag in next 2-3 then we need to do some something as using 3 draft picks a year isn’t enough to improve our list. Trading out 1-2 senior players may fail (we may shank the kicks) but so may doing nothing.

 

[Mojo]

You can find examples of success or failure for every list strategy. Topping up with proven talent has really worked well for us since 2016?

No list strategy is assured of success - only one team can win. You need to do the right thing for your list at the right time, execute it really well and then combine it with really good development, culture, coaching and leadership and a fair bit of luck.

Would Clarko have won a flag if he went to GWS at end of 2016? Quite Probably (but may have changed up the list as well).

If you have the view we don’t have the squad to win a flag in next 2-3 then we need to do some something as using 3 draft picks a year isn’t enough to improve our list. Trading out 1-2 senior players may fail (we may shank the kicks) but so may doing nothing.

Good post!

In hindsight, our attempt at another premiership post 2015 was probably weighted more towards a trade strategy.

What seems apparent, particularly after the last off-season, has been our inability to acquire lucrative Free Agents in the past few years. Couple that with a lack of high-end draft picks, and it looks like we haven't spread our eggs across enough baskets.

Honestly, who knows what we could have accomplished this season had we landed Coniglio and had one more first-round draftee on our list.

 

[SSSSSS]

Trading Gunston and Punky (and Mitchell LMAO ) would be sending a message to the blokes on the list to pack it in next season.

Have you ever worked for a company that knows it's going under? It's miserable. Going through the motions day by day. Even if the company survives it kills the culture. Don't deprive these young blokes of hope. Just look at Melbourne/Carlton.

 

[SSSSSS]

Thread theme.

 

[PhatHQ]

Thread theme.

Really really good song

 

[sohsam]

Good post!

In hindsight, our attempt at another premiership post 2015 was probably weighted more towards a trade strategy.

What seems apparent, particularly after the last off-season, has been our inability to acquire lucrative Free Agents in the past few years. Couple that with a lack of high-end draft picks, and it looks like we haven't spread our eggs across enough baskets.

Honestly, who knows what we could have accomplished this season had we landed Coniglio and had one more first-round draftee on our list.

Most strategies are likely to get you to be 6-10 on the ladder in time, how the hard part is to compete for top 4 over 5 year period, which Richmond is finally doing. You could 1. trade out those guys with value who will not be on next premiership, end up being even more bottom of tea, get high draft picks, 2. keep existing players who want to stay, trade for existing players on other lists who want out, 3. keep existing players, split up first round pick for later picks for example pick 5 for 3-4 picks 25-30 range, so that pick up good players and get to 6-10 on ladder fast. 4. pick best available, probably talls first as take longer to develop, then midfielders, keep existing team. After reached ladder 6-10 is the trick to get to top 4, that is probably when you can attract players like Coniglio / Lynch especially if have a young team and only need 2-3 players to get there. So may different ways to get there. I understand attraction to getting Impey/Scrimshaw type, good value for giving up later picks.

 

[Bardo State]

And Gunners and Breust!

Get a whole bunch of picks in, load up on the draft and follow the Demons and Blues lead back to premiership glory!!


oh, wait....

Best to load up on mid-firsts for those guys now when Mitchell's is out of form and the team is struggling to find tall and small forwards who need the leadership of a 20-goal-a-year promising 18 year old. Bonus is that we have lots of father/sons and academy products to bid on with those picks, will add a lot of fun and drama to draft night. And when you consider that Gunston and Breust plausibly have 3-4 more years of elite footy in them it makes even more sense. How many teams have gone from bottom 4 to contending within 4 years? Can't be more than a few dozen since the turn of the century. Other teams will be so focused on all the talent that is going to be floating around as a result of the list size and cap reductions that we can catch them napping at the draft.

 

[HeHateMe]

I had a dream we were 100% bidding on Campbell at 3 and swans knew it so they traded pick 4 for our future 1st.

 

[Teamwork Talks]

I had a dream we were 100% bidding on Campbell at 3 and swans knew it so they traded pick 4 for our future 1st.

Yep, sounds like a dream to me.

 

[Davo-27]

You can find examples of success or failure for every list strategy. Topping up with proven talent has really worked well for us since 2016?

No list strategy is assured of success - only one team can win. You need to do the right thing for your list at the right time, execute it really well and then combine it with really good development, culture, coaching and leadership and a fair bit of luck.

Would Clarko have won a flag if he went to GWS at end of 2016? Quite Probably (but may have changed up the list as well).

If you have the view we don’t have the squad to win a flag in next 2-3 then we need to do some something as using 3 draft picks a year isn’t enough to improve our list. Trading out 1-2 senior players may fail (we may shank the kicks) but so may doing nothing.

i think recruiting strategy changes as your list changes, in 2004 up until 2014 or so we knew we could rely heavily on a core of players that would possibly bring us success, players like Crawford, Hodge, S.Mitchell, then when we got Birchall, Rioli, Gibson, Burgoyne, Roughy, Buddy, Lewis, we all kind of knew we had something special and so did opponents who wanted to come to our team to play with these guys.... this is when you trade heavily, when you have a good core group and success is not far away.

i could see a problem in 2016 when our best players started getting older and losing their speed and competitiveness, they all had a few average years at other clubs, but they were pretty cooked, after this point and maybe i thought a year or 2 before i was hoping the club would go to the draft and try and rebuild the core, draft some high end talents that are near impossible to trade for and with those draftees coming good in a year or 2 create a core that would attract other talent from other teams to join us again, but we have decided to trade in while we have a weak core group and this is the result, a mistake for all to see and judge us on.

 

[eldorado]

I had a dream we were 100% bidding on Campbell at 3 and swans knew it so they traded pick 4 for our future 1st.

You know you've gone down the Bigfooty rabbit hole when trade hypotheticals start invading your dreams...

"And then Elvis Presley and Mr Snuffleupagus appeared, in scuba gear. And Mr Snuffleupagus asked Elvis if we should trade Tom Mitchell. Elvis said pick 3 for Josh Kelly! THOUGHTS?"

 

[Sturty]

Collingwood chasing Gunston? hmmmmm