List Mgmt. 2020 Trade and List Management Thread III

[Deleted member 98541]

I think you're assuming there is a difference amongst the top five (not including the two academy players). There may not be.

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You could say I'm assuming it yep....or you could also say paid professionals like GC & Ess list managers are convinced of it and willing to pay for it.


Looking at the pick swaps of 2019 it is abundantly clear Brady and co took a quantity over quality approach.

I'm now firmly of the opinion that approach has run it's course and pick 2 needs to be spent on best available.

 

[DrZaius]

100% agree.

The only worthy deal suggested on here so far IF we rank the 2020 top 5 as all equally viable.

Our 2020 picks would become: #5 #11 #27 #30 #37 #39.

On-trade #39 for 2021 2nd & 3rd.

We'd be packing up to head home from the 2020 draft with 5 new players before selection 38 (pre-bids) is even called).

Go into 2021 with 2x 1st, 2x 2nd, 2x 3rd.

I hear we have the first round essentially rated:

- Top 6
- Middle 6
- 'Bottom' 6

Then dropping off quite a bit after that.
So in theory pick 5 would still be getting us a player we rate highly.

EDIT: I'm not sure if that ranking is including academy kids or not fwiw

 

[Deleted member 98541]

I hear we have the first round essentially rated:

- Top 6
- Middle 6
- 'Bottom' 6

Then dropping off quite a bit after that.
So in theory pick 5 would still be getting us a player we rate highly.

EDIT: I'm not sure if that ranking is including academy kids or not fwiw

So we looked to have bummed out on the Dees pick swap according to this rating?

Yay, let's play that card again.

 

[DrZaius]

So we looked to have bummed out on the Dees pick swap according to this rating?

Yay, let's play that card again.

How so? It could be that we rate the 'middle' 6 of this years draft higher than who was available at pick 8 last year.
I'm not a draft watcher so I have nfi about the talent available this year, but our pick swap last year essentially got us Perez for free.

 

[Snake_Baker]

So we looked to have bummed out on the Dees pick swap according to this rating?

Yay, let's play that card again.

I'd be happy to take one of the KPP's/mids at pick 11 2020, ahead of Pickett in 2019.

 

[Passmore]

You could say I'm assuming it yep....or you could also say paid professionals like GC & Ess list managers are convinced of it and willing to pay for it.


Looking at the pick swaps of 2019 it is abundantly clear Brady and co took a quantity over quality approach.

I'm now firmly of the opinion that approach has run it's course and pick 2 needs to be spent on best available.

Our paid professionals may differ in their opinion to GC or *'s.

 

[Ardent Roo]

Folks (™Tef) are overthinking this and assuming we will be getting an inferior player or missing out on a 'star' if we went from #2 to #5.

Let me put it another (obviously hypothetical) way. Assume the club rates the draft JUH, then Will Phillips, then Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Hollands

Would you rather take Phillips at #2 or would you rather take Phillips at #5 as well as another 1st and a couple of 2nds?

Could not agree more.

I think there is too much certainty ascribed to the outcome of our Pick 2 vs what could be achieved via something like a Pick 5, 6, or 7 plus a further late 1st round pick this year or next.

The draft is, at best, a crap shoot - it just is.

The best players in the competition have overtaken those selected above them through their club's development, their physical/mental growth beyond their junior footy final year and a number of other factors. It is just so hard to call that Pick 2 will be x% better than an alternative when you have Fyfe, Martin, Danger, Cripps, Lynch, Shuey, Ryan, Walters, Heaney etc all not drafted in the top 2, and in many cases, not the top ten.

I'd rather shoot for a bulls eye with 2 darts in my hand than one.

 

[Pykie]

I'd be happy to take one of the KPP's/mids at pick 11 2020, ahead of Pickett in 2019.

Why do you keep raising Pickett?

We didn't trade Pickett, we traded Serong.

 

[Deleted member 98541]

I'd be happy to take one of the KPP's/mids at pick 11 2020, ahead of Pickett in 2019.

edit: Pykie covered it above.

I'm not sure Pickett is all that, so you're probably safe to make that call in any case.

Either way, we've downgraded draft position 2 out of 3 trades last year, this talk of repeating it is not sitting well with me.

Do what you want with pick 11, but 2 should be off limits imo.

 

[Wayne Campbell]

I'd rather shoot for a bulls eye with 2 darts in my hand than one.

Melbourne:

"Pick 1: Tom Scully

21

Tom Scully

Age

34

Ht

181cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

12.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

5.1

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.1

2star

CL

0.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.8

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

3.8

5star

Pick 2: Jack Trengove

Jack Trengove

Age

34

Ht

186cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

9.1

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

4.5

5star

MG

188.9

3star

No current season stats available

D

20.6

5star

K

8.6

4star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.6

5star

"

Richmond:

"Pick 3: Dustin Martin"

 

[Snake_Baker]

More than a few rumours getting about that I've heard, that the GC deal may be done "in principle" with North.

North have the ability to reneg at any point up until the draft.

Take it with a grain of salt, but I've heard it from a few different people since the end of trade week.

Pick 2 for Pick 5,27,37 2021 R1.

North get the leftover of Hollands, DGB and Phillips. Most likely Phillips at this stage.

I can live with that outcome.

5, 11, 27, 30, 37 & 39

Hollands/DGB /Phillips + Cox/Reid + specs/ruckman

Adelaide- Tilthorpe/McDonald
GC- Tilthorpe/McDonald
Swines - Hollands/DGB /Phillips
Hawthorn - Definitely out of Hollands of DGB.
North - I reckon it's the leftover of Hollands or Phillips. If Sydney take Hollands, then Will Phillips is Arden Street bound.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Why do you keep raising Pickett?

We didn't trade Pickett, we traded Serong.

I don't know who the club would have picked, so I view it from what Melbourne chose and what we got.

 

[RobZombie]

You could say I'm assuming it yep....or you could also say paid professionals like GC & Ess list managers are convinced of it and willing to pay for it.


Looking at the pick swaps of 2019 it is abundantly clear Brady and co took a quantity over quality approach.

I'm now firmly of the opinion that approach has run it's course and pick 2 needs to be spent on best available.

The *essendon list manager hasn't demonstrated any ability to build a list - only a skill for keeping his own name in the headlines in draft week. People take the piss out of us for big fish but he is addicted to chasing the biggest name every year regardless of fit.

GC ditto. I don't resent them the way some here do but they've also proven jack shit about list management. If one club is convinced they're one specific player away from putting it all together to the point they want to overpay that much, great.

 

[DunderHead]

It’s more about getting into next years draft. If we can get one of the fab five and get another first rounder for next year then we are in a very strong position development wise.

 

[Ardent Roo]

Melbourne:

"Pick 1: Tom Scully

21

Tom Scully

Age

34

Ht

181cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

12.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

5.1

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.1

2star

CL

0.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.8

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

3.8

5star

Pick 2: Jack Trengove

Jack Trengove

Age

34

Ht

186cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

9.1

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

4.5

5star

MG

188.9

3star

No current season stats available

D

20.6

5star

K

8.6

4star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.6

5star

"

Richmond:

"Pick 3: Dustin Martin"

Proves my point that earlier picks are no guarantee of the best outcome long term.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Dumb hypothetical, but had we accepted Essendon's Dunkley offer, would you guys have accepted all of pick 7, pick 14, and Dogs' 2021 1st rounder, for pick 2?

If I'm you guys, I'm saying no. But food for thought.

 

[giantroo]

Dumb hypothetical, but had we accepted Essendon's Dunkley offer, would you guys have accepted all of pick 7, pick 14, and Dogs' 2021 1st rounder, for pick 2?

If I'm you guys, I'm saying no. But food for thought.

No, as we still want a chance at one of the top 5.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

The GC deals sounds a little too good to be true, but I think the club is still open to trading it for ridiculous overs on the basis that we really like Perkins as an option for a second pick, who would be there at pick 5/6. Not to mention that I think Phillips would add something different to our midfield as would Hollands or Perkins. I trust the club to do the right thing and we can analyse the decision to death after it is made. Exciting times.

 

[Elroo]

The problems with getting involved with * for our pick 2 is they'd probably offer us 2nd rounder in return for pick 2 plus our next years 1st round pick. And then complain and hold up the trade as us being unreasonable.

 

[Deleted member 98541]

The *essendon list manager hasn't demonstrated any ability to build a list - only a skill for keeping his own name in the headlines in draft week. People take the piss out of us for big fish but he is addicted to chasing the biggest name every year regardless of fit.

GC ditto. I don't resent them the way some here do but they've also proven jack sh*t about list management. If one club is convinced they're one specific player away from putting it all together to the point they want to overpay that much, great.

It was more to indicate that i'm not alone in valuing pick 2 highly. We're yet to see evidence of any offers, for all we know Dodo offers unders which gets a vote in your camp. Ditto GC.

 

[Moti]

The GC deals sounds a little too good to be true, but I think the club is still open to trading it for ridiculous overs on the basis that we really like Perkins as an option for a second pick, who would be there at pick 5/6. Not to mention that I think Phillips would add something different to our midfield as would Hollands or Perkins. I trust the club to do the right thing and we can analyse the decision to death after it is made. Exciting times.

Looking at GC draft position and what they have coming in etc, it actually seems like a smart thing for them to offer overs if they don't need the capital. It is very NBA/NFL like and is based on getting what you want regardless if you give a leg up to the other guy, as long as you are happy to let it go.

 

[Roosurgence]

Give up all that for a couple of spots in the draft? Seems a lot especially if they have a sh*t year next year.

By all reports they won’t use those pick this year and if they have a specific target at 2, they may be happy to back themselves to climb the ladder next year and only be giving up pick 10-12?

So essentially in their eyes they are giving Pick 10-12 next year to get who they want this year.

Clubs will know we won’t accept a fair value for 2 it will need to be massive overs.

Can you imaging the PR disaster if we gave up Pick 2 for fair value and missed out on the next Buddy/Dusty?

 

[Sillygit]

I don't want to trade it, but I will say this. Any pick 2 swap which happens needs to give the visceral reaction to everyone who sees the trade as "that's insane".

I don't care how one sided it seems. Leverage the sh*t out of it until reality bends.

I'd happily cause a rift in the space time continuum for a good trade.

 

[Deleted member 98541]

By all reports they won’t use those pick this year and if they have a specific target at 2, they may be happy to back themselves to climb the ladder next year and only be giving up pick 10-12?

So essentially in their eyes they are giving Pick 10-12 next year to get who they want this year.

Clubs will know we won’t accept a fair value for 2 it will need to be massive overs.

Can you imaging the PR disaster if we gave up Pick 2 for fair value and missed out on the next Buddy/Dusty?

IF this was the case, it wouldn't matter what steak knives were thrown in, it will become BF folk lore along with Tambling and to a lesser extent the Dees giving up Josh Kelly.

Judges put blinkers on when it comes to hindsight trade reviews. And generally, if it comes down to us giving up a superior player for two lesser lights, it will be deemed a failure.

 

[RobZombie]

Proves my point that earlier picks are no guarantee of the best outcome long term.

Not specifically picking on you because I agree that a couple of picks either way rarely makes much difference, but this is on the whole such a dumb argument - cherry picking high-pick busts.

Of course there's no certainty, but there are probabilities. And the probability of getting a better player with a higher pick is higher. You might get a Fyfe at pick 20 but you almost certainly won't. You quite likely won't get a 100-gamer, let alone a star. At pick 3 you might not get Dusty but you're a very good chance at a 200 gamer who wins multiple B&Fs. Top 5 picks who end up complete busts without being ruined by injury and/or Melbourne are bloody rare, and they tend to end up very good players.