Live Event 2021 AFL Draft live discussion

[Simche]

I think the ‘Uber elite’ mids show it early, but often that next rung down take a little time. Let’s not forget RCD only debuted this year and played 9 games averaging 15 touches. Did you know he was 33rd in the entire AFL for average centre clearances? And Dow is 2-years in and has played 7 games … I think he has shown some excellent signs. Him not playing when undermanned was probably more not to expose him too early than anything else given he’d played little footy.

If you think of A-grade mids in the last decade or so who’ve not shown elite traits or anything better than Dow or RCD in their first few seasons… here’s a few:

Jobe Watson
Jack Steele
Matthew Boyd
Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Darcy Parish
Luke Shuey
Jarryd Lyons
Elliott Yeo
Taylor Adams
Josh Dunkley
Touk Miller

Even Ollie Wines was playing SANFL 18-months ago.

So it’s way too early to consign RCD, Dow or Ross to busts or B-grade at best players. They might end up like that, but they deserve a lot more opportunity to prove themselves.




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So leaving aside Dow given that I agree it's two early to make the call, this is how those above stacked up at year 3 after making debut which is where Ross is at (so I suppose RCD gets a bit of a pass):
Watson - Avg 22.8 disposals
Steele - Avg 23.5 disposals (and was at the 22.1 mark at year 3)
Boyd - Avg 19.9 disposals (though I'd argue Boyd isn't really a good example given the amount of time that has passed)
Kennedy - Avg 20.1 disposals
Parish - Avg 20.3 disposals
Shuey - Avg 23 disposals
Lyons - Avg 13.3 disposals (down from 16 his second year)
Yeo - Avg 14.9 disposals
Adams - Avg 19.2 disposals (down from 21.3 second year)
Dunkley - Avg 21.9 disposals
Miller - Avg 20.9 (down from 21.4 second year)
Wines - Avg 24.5 disposals

Our boys:
Ross - Avg disposals 14.4
RCD - Avg disposals 14.7* (first year since debut)

You can see why there's not exactly a wealth of positivity about those boys. From the examples you used, only Jarrod Lyons is below them at season 3 since debut and had shown more in his second year than either of our boys. I know statistics do not paint the whole picture, but most of the blokes above looked like pretty respectable footy players, if not were contributors for their respective sides. A fair few of them had to bide their time on a flank and collect disposals there and were still putting up those numbers.

In short I think, at least in my mind, I'd be making the call on Ross pretty soon. RCD would want to be getting a real move on in terms of his development this year.

 

[NZ_Tiger]

They all went after pick 14.
I'm saying Gibcus was a late first rounder but we took him earlier because there weren't many other KPD available and we needed a KPD.
It is said to be a good draft so he will be good .

Hurley went too 5, Lever did his ACL in his top age year and still went end of first round. Gibcus could of gone top 3 as it was between he and Mac Andrew.

We went best available so it’s irrelevant whether what position they played just where we had them ranked.


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[RJKTiger]

So leaving aside Dow given that I agree it's two early to make the call, this is how those above stacked up at year 3 after making debut which is where Ross is at (so I suppose RCD gets a bit of a pass):
Watson - Avg 22.8 disposals
Steele - Avg 23.5 disposals (and was at the 22.1 mark at year 3)
Boyd - Avg 19.9 disposals (though I'd argue Boyd isn't really a good example given the amount of time that has passed)
Kennedy - Avg 20.1 disposals
Parish - Avg 20.3 disposals
Shuey - Avg 23 disposals
Lyons - Avg 13.3 disposals (down from 16 his second year)
Yeo - Avg 14.9 disposals
Adams - Avg 19.2 disposals (down from 21.3 second year)
Dunkley - Avg 21.9 disposals
Miller - Avg 20.9 (down from 21.4 second year)
Wines - Avg 24.5 disposals

Our boys:
Ross - Avg disposals 14.4
RCD - Avg disposals 14.7* (first year since debut)

You can see why there's not exactly a wealth of positivity about those boys. From the examples you used, only Jarrod Lyons is below them at season 3 since debut and had shown more in his second year than either of our boys. I know statistics do not paint the whole picture, but most of the blokes above looked like pretty respectable footy players, if not were contributors for their respective sides. A fair few of them had to bide their time on a flank and collect disposals there and were still putting up those numbers.

In short I think, at least in my mind, I'd be making the call on Ross pretty soon. RCD would want to be getting a real move on in terms of his development this year.

And the reality is Ross is in no way damaging when he does get it. If anything i think the stats flatter Ross more than "the eye test"

RCD i do have more hope in as he has shown glimpses of hitting the scoreboard & winning clearances & one on ones. RCD marks well on the eye-test - his biggest issue appears to be he can be unseen for long periods also. When he is in the play though, he appears to do well.

 

[THE THIN MAN]

A lot of spuds there though.

 

[GoTigers2015]

It is unfortunate for Hobbs that he got drafted by KMart Richmond

 

[tora tora tora]

I think we might regret not taking Hobbs.
Gibcus is a solid pick but he won't be the next Fyfe or Dusty.

Gibcus can't win a brownlow he ain't a mid. In the meantime good some much needed KPP depth. Depth that looks like it'll play next year. Hobbs will be fine player, might be the next Dusty, just not needed at Richmond.

 

[Profop]

So leaving aside Dow given that I agree it's two early to make the call, this is how those above stacked up at year 3 after making debut which is where Ross is at (so I suppose RCD gets a bit of a pass):
Watson - Avg 22.8 disposals
Steele - Avg 23.5 disposals (and was at the 22.1 mark at year 3)
Boyd - Avg 19.9 disposals (though I'd argue Boyd isn't really a good example given the amount of time that has passed)
Kennedy - Avg 20.1 disposals
Parish - Avg 20.3 disposals
Shuey - Avg 23 disposals
Lyons - Avg 13.3 disposals (down from 16 his second year)
Yeo - Avg 14.9 disposals
Adams - Avg 19.2 disposals (down from 21.3 second year)
Dunkley - Avg 21.9 disposals
Miller - Avg 20.9 (down from 21.4 second year)
Wines - Avg 24.5 disposals

Our boys:
Ross - Avg disposals 14.4
RCD - Avg disposals 14.7* (first year since debut)

You can see why there's not exactly a wealth of positivity about those boys. From the examples you used, only Jarrod Lyons is below them at season 3 since debut and had shown more in his second year than either of our boys. I know statistics do not paint the whole picture, but most of the blokes above looked like pretty respectable footy players, if not were contributors for their respective sides. A fair few of them had to bide their time on a flank and collect disposals there and were still putting up those numbers.

In short I think, at least in my mind, I'd be making the call on Ross pretty soon. RCD would want to be getting a real move on in terms of his development this year.

Years in the system is a harsh comparator to use for our boys because:

1. The team has been dominant the last three years and has been very difficult to break into

2. COVID has stopped any development in lower leagues the last two years

I think both RCD and Dow show something when they do get games and will be AFL players. Ross is right on the borderline for me but seems to have the personality to get the very best out of himself so I wouldn’t count him out either

 

[matt_y106]

I think the ‘Uber elite’ mids show it early, but often that next rung down take a little time. Let’s not forget RCD only debuted this year and played 9 games averaging 15 touches. Did you know he was 33rd in the entire AFL for average centre clearances? And Dow is 2-years in and has played 7 games … I think he has shown some excellent signs. Him not playing when undermanned was probably more not to expose him too early than anything else given he’d played little footy.

If you think of A-grade mids in the last decade or so who’ve not shown elite traits or anything better than Dow or RCD in their first few seasons… here’s a few:

Jobe Watson
Jack Steele
Matthew Boyd
Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Darcy Parish
Luke Shuey
Jarryd Lyons
Elliott Yeo
Taylor Adams
Josh Dunkley
Touk Miller

Even Ollie Wines was playing SANFL 18-months ago.

So it’s way too early to consign RCD, Dow or Ross to busts or B-grade at best players. They might end up like that, but they deserve a lot more opportunity to prove themselves.




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Dane Swan also.


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[tigerfan1961]

They all went after pick 14.
I'm saying Gibcus was a late first rounder but we took him earlier because there weren't many other KPD available and we needed a KPD.
It is said to be a good draft so he will be good .

Hurley and Moore were both well before pick 14 iirc
EDIT should have scrolled down before posting

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Hurley and Moore were both well before pick 14 iirc

Ok I've got it.
In the Weitering draft, he was rated over Oliver pick 4 and Parish pick 5 which has proved to be wrong.

 

[tigerfan1961]

Ok I've got it.

Sorry AP, edited my post as should have kept reading before posting

 

[Lacustrus]

The giants apparently thinking about Gibcus (and Andrew) at live pick two gives me some confidence. Ditto trying to trade for the freo draft pick for Gibcus. (before reaching for aller)

GWS trying to pick swap to get Our man, can go blow themselves. They got greedy and lost that one. KPB was their most pressing list need and the stuffed it up

Gibcus is a good pickup IMHO

 

[Calcium Man]

Ok I've got it.
In the Weitering draft, he was rated over Oliver pick 4 and Parish pick 5 which has proved to be wrong.

What’s your point here?

Chris Masten (3) Cale Morton (4) were rated above Rance, who most people had in Top 10 but slid to us given how it all fell out.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

What’s your point here?

Chris Masten (3) Cale Morton (4) were rated above Rance, who most people had in Top 10 but slid to us given how it all fell out.

My point is that it is rare to find a Rance and that plenty of quality KPD are taken later in the draft.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

I think we might regret not taking Hobbs.
Gibcus is a solid pick but he won't be the next Fyfe or Dusty.

How long does a Dusty come round?
Put it this way before Dusty there was Leigh Mathews.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

How long does a Dusty come round?
Put it this way before Dusty there was Leigh Mathews.

True, a Dusty only comes along once in a generation.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

We took a chance with Stack to take a list spot , Bolton and Balta weren't guaranteed to be any good at the time.

So what makes Hobbs the next Dusty?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

A few people had balta top10

Family members don't count.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

So what makes Hobbs the next Dusty?

He obviously won't be as good as Dusty but he could be in the best few mids when he's developed.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

He obviously won't be as good as Dusty but he could be in the best few mids when he's developed.

So could Sonsie who we got @28 who was rated higher than Hobbs early on.

 

[This Is Anfield]

He obviously won't be as good as Dusty but he could be in the best few mids when he's developed.

Better than Daicos, Callaghan, Horne-Francis, Ward, Erasmus and most of the current young mids in the AFL?

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Better than Daicos, Callaghan, Horne-Francis, Ward, Erasmus and most of the current young mids in the AFL?

I say yes

 

[This Is Anfield]

I say yes

Thanks for the prompt reply, Adrian.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Thanks for the prompt reply, Adrian.

Who is Adrian? Dodoro?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Thanks for the prompt reply, Adrian.