AFL 2021 AFL Preliminary Finals

[Hava Alle]

Like that deliberate out of bounds against Daniel?

That was catch up due to the missed HTB 2 seconds before. Umpires do this often, annoying as ****. Dog's definitely had the rub of the green imo. As did the Cats, but they dominated the play majority of the night. Noticed more in close games.

 

[GROTTO]

Weightman OUT, Bont likely to be OUT.

Likely warm evening on Friday too.

Port will be locked and loaded for Friday night.

 

[dontlimitme]

Weightman OUT, Bont likely to be OUT.

Likely warm evening on Friday too.

Port will be locked and loaded for Friday night.

we need to oraz port by the sounds of it

 

[jikost]

Even if Bont plays I reckon they'll have to park him forward. If so, Treloar back into the guts? I'll take a punt.

25+ @ 2.5 sb
30+ @ 6.5 tab
35+ @ 34 tab
40+ @ 101 tab

 

[dontlimitme]

SGM - Treloar 25+/Daniel 20+/Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

20+/Rozee AGS/Motlop AGS/Gray AGS @ 20.25 boosted on SB

 

[Prochard123]

Weightman OUT, Bont likely to be OUT.

Likely warm evening on Friday too.

Port will be locked and loaded for Friday night.

I thought Bont is likely to be playing? Where did you read that he's likely to be out?

 

[Prochard123]

SGM - Treloar 25+/Daniel 20+/Bailey Smith 20+/Rozee AGS/Motlop AGS/Gray AGS @ 20.25 boosted on SB

What do you get w/o Treloar 25+, by far the riskiest leg.

 

[dontlimitme]

What do you get w/o Treloar 25+, by far the riskiest leg.

7.25, yep def the riskiest especially after last game. but hoping he bounces back + bonts injury

 

[Prochard123]

7.25, yep def the riskiest especially after last game. but hoping he bounces back + bonts injury

What if you swap them around?

E.g. I'd much prefer having Daniel 25+ and Treloar 20+ for very similar odds

I think given the vast majority of Bonts' minutes will be given to Dunkley who is likely to run with Wines, or Libba/Smith. Also even if he gains the lion share of Bont's midfield minutes I still don't think that's enough to pull him from 10 touches last week to 25 this week.

 

[dontlimitme]

What if you swap them around?

E.g. I'd much prefer having Daniel 25+ and Treloar 20+ for very similar odds

I think given the vast majority of Bonts' minutes will be given to Dunkley who is likely to run with Wines, or Libba/Smith. Also even if he gains the lion share of Bont's midfield minutes I still don't think that's enough to pull him from 10 touches last week to 25 this week.

had 28 the week before vs the dons.

with daniel 25, treloar 20 its 16.25

 

[StringyDog]

Weightman OUT, Bont likely to be OUT.

Likely warm evening on Friday too.

Port will be locked and loaded for Friday night.

They might be a bit premature if they are locked and loaded for Friday night considering match isn't until Saturday night!

Think Smith and Dunkley get Bonts minutes between them, but Dunkley more defensive role, wouldn't trust backing Treloar. Smith Overs into Bont Unders will be the go if they set the lines not too far from usual.

 

[54Dogs]

Hard to see Bont playing mid time either way. If they do roll him out prob play fwd

 

[Prochard123]

They might be a bit premature if they are locked and loaded for Friday night considering match isn't until Saturday night!

Think Smith and Dunkley get Bonts minutes between them, but Dunkley more defensive role, wouldn't trust backing Treloar. Smith Overs into Bont Unders will be the go if they set the lines not too far from usual.

Hard to see Bont playing mid time either way. If they do roll him out prob play fwd

Great insight - I was probably eyeing Dunkley 25 touches @ $3.00.

But with 81% TOG and huge midfield/CBA minutes he still only had 21 touches against Brisbane which was underwhelming. Think we need to manage our expectations on Dunkley given his new defensive focus.

 

[TBellicious]

Cats at the line looks the play doesn’t it?

They were 6 goals up against the Dees at 3QT in the last round and Melbourne could be very prone to the old choke.

 

[mozz23]

Melbourne -3.5 4th quarter. $1.95 neds

ran right over geelong in the last quarter only a few weeks back.

should be the fresher team with the week off and geelongs old list. played on a big ground will suit the dees.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Not to mention you will be placing a bet that will probably take almost a year to pay out too.

Freo being Freo, I bet you will end up getting better odds during the H&A season.

Keeping guys like Pearce and Hamling fit will have far more impact on their chances than signing Neale

 

[ShaunWDT]

Dont Smith and Dunkley just cover Bont? Not sure Treloar is the beneficiary, especially with how poorly hes covered the ground since returning from injury, only good game was when he junked off a flank in a 8 goal win with a 18 touch 2nd half dont see that happening on Port in Adelaide.

 

[Prochard123]

Dont Smith and Dunkley just cover Bont? Not sure Treloar is the beneficiary, especially with how poorly hes covered the ground since returning from injury, only good game was when he junked off a flank in a 8 goal win with a 18 touch 2nd half dont see that happening on Port in Adelaide.

Keep in mind Dunkley already had a very healthy TOG and midfield minutes last week, think any increase for Dunkley will be very marginal.

Also don’t think Bont forward opens opportunities for 2 players probably just 1. Might just be the case that his CBA attendance gets halved from 75% to 37.5%.

Expecting that to the 37.5% to be spread around Dunks, Libba, Treloar, Smith.

 

[Islanda22]

Dees/Port double $2.20 boosted on NEDS

 

[Robo87]

Dees/Port double $2.20 boosted on NEDS

I feel if you're doing this U might as well use
Port 1-39, dees 1-39 @4.33 sb boosted.

 

[The_Steadier]

Even if Bont plays I reckon they'll have to park him forward. If so, Treloar back into the guts? I'll take a punt.

25+ @ 2.5 sb
30+ @ 6.5 tab
35+ @ 34 tab
40+ @ 101 tab

I watched him intently last week and he spent the entire match trotting around at half pace, sheepdogging every contest that went near him.

Maybe the extra week will do him good but i'd doubt it based on last week.

 

[Jugada]

I feel if you're doing this U might as well use
Port 1-39, dees 1-39 @4.33 sb boosted.

Why? If he is that confident in both teams winning then why would he want to cap how right he is? Port already won a final by 40+ and Dees were a goal off it too

 

[FadingTheFave]

Why? If he is that confident in both teams winning then why would he want to cap how right he is? Port already won a final by 40+ and Dees were a goal off it too

Prelim's have an average winning margin of 27.6 over last 10 years with 5/20 going over 40+ and about 3 results being within 1 goal of hitting the overs.

While those stats don't prove much, I do think there is a reasonable chance of a blowout in one of the two games.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Prelim's have an average winning margin of 27.6 over last 10 years with 5/20 going over 40+ and about 3 results being within 1 goal of hitting the overs.

While those stats don't prove much, I do think there is a reasonable chance of a blowout in one of the two games.

Been nothing between these 4 sides all season dont really see a blowout happening myself.

 

[The_Steadier]

Been nothing between these 4 sides all season dont really see a blowout happening myself.

Agree however having just looked at the prelim results over the last 6 years there certainly have been plenty of blow out wins.

Party time in the 4th qtr romping into a GF with the opposition knowing their season is cooked would at a guess have plenty to do with id say.