Important question, have quarter lengths changed this year? Are they 16, 18 or 20min.
Cause it Will affect possessions.
Cause it Will affect possessions.
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AFL 2021 AFL Round 1
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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- May 20, 2016
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back to normal. 20 min
Hooker forward this year. Kicked 2+ 13 times back in 2017 when he played Forward line.
Cale Hooker 2+ @ 3.5 TAB
Cale Hooker 3+ @ 9
Cale Hooker 4+ @ 34
Cale Hooker 5+ @ 81
Cale Hooker 2+ @ 3.5 TAB
Cale Hooker 3+ @ 9
Cale Hooker 4+ @ 34
Cale Hooker 5+ @ 81
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- May 20, 2016
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kicked 4.2 last week in the warmup game vs geelong in a lowish scoring game at GMHBA ( 79-72), this ones at marvel. good find
balmainforever
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- #57
opening post updated
squeaky1000
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- Apr 30, 2018
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Tigers, Lions, Cats h2h, Freo +13.5, Port -29.5 $7.50 bet365
Pretty self explanatory, teams I struggle to see losing along with my two favourite lines of the week. Have played these individually as well.
Daniel, Andy Brayshaw, Stewart, Parish, Perryman 20+ $6
Few of my favourite disposal legs from across the round. Also playing a couple of different combinations of these in the $2-$3 range
Pretty self explanatory, teams I struggle to see losing along with my two favourite lines of the week. Have played these individually as well.
Daniel, Andy Brayshaw, Stewart, Parish, Perryman 20+ $6
Few of my favourite disposal legs from across the round. Also playing a couple of different combinations of these in the $2-$3 range
- Jan 21, 2013
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- Port Adelaide
Have only really had a squiz at the Port game but I love these for possies
Amon 20+ @2 (Move to the mid field - very underrated player imo) $50
Dan Houston 25+ @3.10 (This is my fav - racked up 34 in the pre season game. Man on the mark rule is designed for him) $50
Dan Houston 30+ @7.00 (See above) $25
Amon 20+ @2 (Move to the mid field - very underrated player imo) $50
Dan Houston 25+ @3.10 (This is my fav - racked up 34 in the pre season game. Man on the mark rule is designed for him) $50
Dan Houston 30+ @7.00 (See above) $25
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- Banned
- #61
Staggered by the Geelong line. -25.5 after being -23.5 a couple of days ago. Adelaide are dismal. Absolutely dismal, and Daniel Talia won't play, meaning that Adelaide will play two debutantes - Nick Murray and Jordon Butts - to play on Hawkins and Cameron the two best forwards in the game. Adelaide's forward line is too slow to match it with Geelong's quick and mobile back six, and the midfield is obviously a massive mismatch. I think Geelong can win by 100 if they go hard from start to finish. The line is a gift and I'll be going hard.
Little multi I like
Richmond win
Fremantle +23.5 PYOL
Geelong line
Port Adelaide line
$7 odds should get up.
Little multi I like
Richmond win
Fremantle +23.5 PYOL
Geelong line
Port Adelaide line
$7 odds should get up.
2u - Richmond -18.5 - $1.85 - Betfair (next best -20.5 @ 365)
Been sitting on this one for a bit and have been monitoring injuries etc. With a full strength Carlton side I wouldve backed the 1-39 as I could have expected an ease into the season from the Tigers after a second GF win and a later start to pre season. C.Curnow an LTI, McGovern has been confirmed out, with McKay and Casboult, and Newnes facing fitness tests to see if they make round 1. McKay, Casboult, Newnes make up the top 3 goal kickers for the Blues last year with McGovern having a down year (7th) but still applying forward pressure as a target after finishing 2nd in 2019. With a long season and an already large injury list I cant see the blues taking too many risks on rushing these guys back, tough to see them kicking a winning score with so many key threats missing. If any of these guys miss, the line moves out further, already -21.5 at some places. Carlton are on the up, but enter this one in shaking territory, think a very healthy Tigers (bar Houli), give the Blues a small touch up here, watch out late blow out.
2.5u - Walsh 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
Priced at $1.67 on SB, thinking we will probably end up being offered 25.5 or 26.5 when bookies release his player markets. I think by locking in this one now we will get best price/line. Has been cited that the blues have intent to give him more opportunities as an inside mid this season. Coming into the third year into the system this bloke will have built on his already elite endurance and now have the size ready to compete. Last 8 games of 2020 he averaged 23.88 disposals per game with a low of 20. We can assume with games back to normal quarter length (20% longer game) that his output could improve to an average of 28.65 and a low of 25
. Looking at those end of season numbers is key, especially in younger players as it is our best way in seeing improvement/form that will carry into next seasons. Adding to that Richmond are great team to bet on for player disposals as opposition mods usually have great success in racking up solid numbers.
Been sitting on this one for a bit and have been monitoring injuries etc. With a full strength Carlton side I wouldve backed the 1-39 as I could have expected an ease into the season from the Tigers after a second GF win and a later start to pre season. C.Curnow an LTI, McGovern has been confirmed out, with McKay and Casboult, and Newnes facing fitness tests to see if they make round 1. McKay, Casboult, Newnes make up the top 3 goal kickers for the Blues last year with McGovern having a down year (7th) but still applying forward pressure as a target after finishing 2nd in 2019. With a long season and an already large injury list I cant see the blues taking too many risks on rushing these guys back, tough to see them kicking a winning score with so many key threats missing. If any of these guys miss, the line moves out further, already -21.5 at some places. Carlton are on the up, but enter this one in shaking territory, think a very healthy Tigers (bar Houli), give the Blues a small touch up here, watch out late blow out.
2.5u - Walsh 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
Priced at $1.67 on SB, thinking we will probably end up being offered 25.5 or 26.5 when bookies release his player markets. I think by locking in this one now we will get best price/line. Has been cited that the blues have intent to give him more opportunities as an inside mid this season. Coming into the third year into the system this bloke will have built on his already elite endurance and now have the size ready to compete. Last 8 games of 2020 he averaged 23.88 disposals per game with a low of 20. We can assume with games back to normal quarter length (20% longer game) that his output could improve to an average of 28.65 and a low of 25
. Looking at those end of season numbers is key, especially in younger players as it is our best way in seeing improvement/form that will carry into next seasons. Adding to that Richmond are great team to bet on for player disposals as opposition mods usually have great success in racking up solid numbers.
Yep Geelong should win this very comfortably. I've got on Geelong -29.5 $2 SB.
D
Del125763
Guest
Not sure what people here think about this PointsBet special.
Either Dustin Martin or Patrick Cripps to kicks a goal in the 1st Quarter, which is paying $5
Considering Martin is $2.50 on Sportsbet to kick a goal anytime in 1st quarter, that price seem of $5.00 for either player to goal on PointsBet is decent. (max stake $25 allowed though)
Either Dustin Martin or Patrick Cripps to kicks a goal in the 1st Quarter, which is paying $5
Considering Martin is $2.50 on Sportsbet to kick a goal anytime in 1st quarter, that price seem of $5.00 for either player to goal on PointsBet is decent. (max stake $25 allowed though)
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Normally round 1 is a bit unique because the weaker teams get a longer preseason than finals teams and more opportunity to recover from end of season injuries.
I think the offseason rule changes favour good teams with quick ball movement. I think weaker sides will struggle to stop ball movement and momentum. I'll also be monitoring good teams that might struggle given they relied on kick / mark or slower ball movement like GWS, Coll and WC.
2u Port -27.5. NM are clearly bottom 2. New coach and been terrible during the preseason. Have significant injury concerns around the majority of their midfield - Polec, Cunnington, Dumont and Anderson + Tarrant. If they miss they're in massive trouble, but if they do play they might be underdone. Port on the other hand looked great with Fantasia and Aliir Aliir fitting in seamlessly so far in the preseason.
2u Geel -23.5. Again Ade bottom 2. My main issue with Ade for this game is matchups. They've lost Hartigan and Talia, Kelly and Milera will miss with injury, Laird moves into the middle, Doedee in doubt / underdone. They're backline is in awful trouble facing Hawkins, Cameron, Danger and co. They were terrible preseason and if these players miss this is the worst possible matchup, although normally I wouldn't be backing a losing grand finalist in round 1.
2u WB H2H. Coll have lost Phillips and Treloar which makes their midfield thin if Adams and Sidebottom misses. I think the new rules suit WB down to a tee. Horrific offseason from Coll can't help either. Picking up Stef Martin should hopefully stop English being destroyed by Grundy and make the forward line more potent.
1u GC +28.5. Think this line is too high with Yeo and Shuey to miss. Wouldn't be surprised to see WC start a bit slow then roll GC late.
2u Ess +6.5. Hawks potentially missing Sicily, Gunston, Wingard, Mitchell and Scrimshaw. That's a lot of talent for a team that was very ordinary last year. I would have had Ess a small fav in this game.
Too many injuries for both Melb and Freo so i'll let that match go.
Bris vs Syd line looks right.
Might have been interested in Carl before forward line injuries and Williams suspension stopped that.
GWS vs StK is interesting. Still a lot of elite talent at GWS and Saints on the up but hit with some key injuries for this game. Too many unknowns for both teams to wade in here.
2u - Port / Bris / Geel - like this as well - hard to see an upset here.
Quote Reply
I think the offseason rule changes favour good teams with quick ball movement. I think weaker sides will struggle to stop ball movement and momentum. I'll also be monitoring good teams that might struggle given they relied on kick / mark or slower ball movement like GWS, Coll and WC.
2u Port -27.5. NM are clearly bottom 2. New coach and been terrible during the preseason. Have significant injury concerns around the majority of their midfield - Polec, Cunnington, Dumont and Anderson + Tarrant. If they miss they're in massive trouble, but if they do play they might be underdone. Port on the other hand looked great with Fantasia and Aliir Aliir fitting in seamlessly so far in the preseason.
2u Geel -23.5. Again Ade bottom 2. My main issue with Ade for this game is matchups. They've lost Hartigan and Talia, Kelly and Milera will miss with injury, Laird moves into the middle, Doedee in doubt / underdone. They're backline is in awful trouble facing Hawkins, Cameron, Danger and co. They were terrible preseason and if these players miss this is the worst possible matchup, although normally I wouldn't be backing a losing grand finalist in round 1.
2u WB H2H. Coll have lost Phillips and Treloar which makes their midfield thin if Adams and Sidebottom misses. I think the new rules suit WB down to a tee. Horrific offseason from Coll can't help either. Picking up Stef Martin should hopefully stop English being destroyed by Grundy and make the forward line more potent.
1u GC +28.5. Think this line is too high with Yeo and Shuey to miss. Wouldn't be surprised to see WC start a bit slow then roll GC late.
2u Ess +6.5. Hawks potentially missing Sicily, Gunston, Wingard, Mitchell and Scrimshaw. That's a lot of talent for a team that was very ordinary last year. I would have had Ess a small fav in this game.
Too many injuries for both Melb and Freo so i'll let that match go.
Bris vs Syd line looks right.
Might have been interested in Carl before forward line injuries and Williams suspension stopped that.
GWS vs StK is interesting. Still a lot of elite talent at GWS and Saints on the up but hit with some key injuries for this game. Too many unknowns for both teams to wade in here.
2u - Port / Bris / Geel - like this as well - hard to see an upset here.
Quote Reply
- Apr 6, 2016
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Yeah, it's in their favour, for sure. Kick a goal in the first "two minutes" and they pay out your team as a win. Max stake $250.
The NRL promo is score a try in the first "five minutes" and they pay out. Same max bet. That promo did pay out a couple of times on the weekend.
D
Del125763
Guest
Will watch and keep an eye out on the tempo, rule changes and style of football played to be on totals in the earlier rounds. We saw a lot of cagey football last season with the shortened quarters.
Last seasons average was 121.07 points per game (for the home and away season), but if you adjust that 20% difference to the normal 20 a minute quarters, thats an average of 151.34 points per 20 minutes.
As the game goes longer, it will open up opportunities. Seems like the TAB have factored this into account with their lines of 169.5 and 163.5 for the first 2 games.
Last seasons average was 121.07 points per game (for the home and away season), but if you adjust that 20% difference to the normal 20 a minute quarters, thats an average of 151.34 points per 20 minutes.
As the game goes longer, it will open up opportunities. Seems like the TAB have factored this into account with their lines of 169.5 and 163.5 for the first 2 games.
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iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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You can use it alongside the TAB promo (double winnings if you win by 12+) on the Thursday/Friday games - one of the NRL games paid out both sides last week if you did that
Think historically first round is a little high scoring as well. I think the overall scoring will be up a little bit per minute from last season with both the new rules and the extra time, however it will be hard to judge off the first round
Yeah will purely be using it to lay off other promos because why not but can't see it winning too often. Maybe taking huge dogs could be worth it in case they win the first centre clearance and snag one early
Saints with heaps out have to a risk, like the Geelong and north lines, like Essendon but I know what can they do abs can’t bring myself to back them, if we can’t beat hawks with all their outs we never will.
Just had a quick look and round 1 last year there was a goal kicked inside the first two minutes a surprisingly high 6 times. The team that kicked the goal won each match though. Round 2 it happened 4 times, again though the team ended up winning the match every occasion . Round 3 was the first time a team kicked a goal in the first 2 minutes and lost the match... happened twice that round.
