List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Some bookies have Collingwood as favourite for the wooden spoon. I see the sense in them trading out their 2021 1st last year ahead of a bid on Daicos, but wow will it have backfired spectacularly if they finish bottom. They would be odds on for the wooden spoon if they lose to Hawks this week and we lose to Kangas final game.

Interesting to note that Twomey has Draper & Roberts slipping significantly due to their respective injuries, coming in at rankings of 12 & 15

 

[70lethal]

I agree it was an interesting post. Especially re cats getting cheap mature agers. But in fairness he said the dogs drafted lots players in a row over an *average* height of 192, which is not really meaningful. One of them could have been Caleb Daniel!

The shortest player was 184cm and was their lowest pick ex 30 y.o.
It did include a few traded in players.

 

[Golumless]

Some bookies have Collingwood as favourite for the wooden spoon. I see the sense in them trading out their 2021 1st last year ahead of a bid on Daicos, but wow will it have backfired spectacularly if they finish bottom. They would be odds on for the wooden spoon if they lose to Hawks this week and we lose to Kangas final game.

Interesting to note that Twomey has Draper & Roberts slipping significantly due to their respective injuries, coming in at rankings of 12 & 15

I don't see any sense in it. Collingwood were an implosion candidate with their salary cap issues and how they handled that offseason. It was desperate trading.

Even if Daicos firmed as a pick 1 bid, Collingwood could have been playing with pick 2-3 to trade this offseason. Instead they gave it up for 24, 30 and a 4th. It was an utterly stupid trade then, for what was a team that probably expected a mid to upper table finish (despite a bunch of red flags), and has only got worse.

 

[Crow till I die]

I don't see any sense in it. Collingwood were an implosion candidate with their salary cap issues and how they handled that offseason. It was desperate trading.

Even if Daicos firmed as a pick 1 bid, Collingwood could have been playing with pick 2-3 to trade this offseason. Instead they gave it up for 24, 30 and a 4th. It was an utterly stupid trade then, for what was a mid table team, and has only got worse.

Wish we got in with a deal with them from last year. As you say there was a bit of writing on the wall with them and even if it ended up a top 10 pick it would have been a win for the club trading with them

 

[DJ75]

Let's say we stay at around pick 4 in the draft.
Horne is off the board, as is Callaghan.

Richmond call and offer the following trade:

Pick 9, 17 & 26, for
Picks 4 & 23

Richmond are super keen on Ben Hobbs, an inside mid who we are probably not going to want (and don't really need).

That would leave us with (using the latest Cal Twomey rankings) with something like:

Erasmus (if got lucky), Ward, Sonsie, Draper or Roberts. Let's say we take Draper.

Then at pick 17 we could possibly grab Goater (currently ranked at 22 incl Academy etc...).

At 26 we have plenty of options (which I don't know enough about to even attempt at a guess)

So, would you accept the deal from Richmond?

 

[Big Crow]

paywalled - but a poster on the main board put it up

“Fremantle chance’s of landing Jesse Motlop in the draft have copped a massive hit thanks to a sub-section in the AFL’s academy rules.

The son of former Port Adelaide and North Melbourne forward Daniel is free to go to a rival AFL club in the first 40 picks of this year’s national draft without the Dockers being able to match, not the first 20 as first thought.

The West Australian understands Fremantle has received approval for the talented goal kicker, who kicked two goals in a sparkling senior debut for South Fremantle this month, to be part of their metropolitan Indigenous development zone.

The AFL last year changed the Next Generation Academy rules to mean clubs would only have the right to match a bid on their academy players outside the first 20 picks this year, and the first 40 picks next year and beyond. The changes were made partially in response to pressure from rival clubs after Western Bulldogs academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was taken with the No.1 pick.

The little-known ruling which affects Motlop is understood to apply to all metro-based Indigenous academy prospects, who will all be available to any club within the first 40 picks this year. Multicultural academy members, like West Coast prospect Ethan Regan, and Indigenous players from regional or rural areas are still only fair game within the first 20 picks.”

Headline: AFL Changes arbitrary rule one year after benefitting Victorian club handsomely, screws over non-Victorian club. Colour me shocked.

 

[Golumless]

Wish we got in with a deal with them from last year. As you say there was a bit of writing on the wall with them and even if it ended up a top 10 pick it would have been a win for the club trading with them

I can forgive the club for not going for it, seeing we were in need of quantity and quality of youth (and I reckon we've nailed our 2nds which Collingwood was initially after, seeing both Berry and Cook genuinely look like becoming something worthwhile).

A shame that implosion wasn't this year, as we would have been in a good position to gamble on it.

Let's say we stay at around pick 4 in the draft.
Horne is off the board, as is Callaghan.

Richmond call and offer the following trade:

Pick 9, 17 & 26, for
Picks 4 & 23

Richmond are super keen on Ben Hobbs, an inside mid who we are probably not going to want (and don't really need).

That would leave us with (using the latest Cal Twomey rankings) with something like:

Erasmus (if got lucky), Ward, Sonsie, Draper or Roberts. Let's say we take Draper.

Then at pick 17 we could possibly grab Goater (currently ranked at 22 incl Academy etc...).

At 26 we have plenty of options (which I don't know enough about to even attempt at a guess)

So, would you accept the deal from Richmond?

No. I'd hold onto pick 4.

It's a big risk to drop down, we're still in prime hitting spot for a midfielder, and the benefit of dropping down is heavily mitigated by the fact we don't need a lot of youth this year, due to how aggressively we've refreshed in the last couple of years. For instance, we're likely to still have the youngest team and list throughout 2022 as well.

Adding to that in a big way is likely to be counter-productive.

 

[DJ75]

I can forgive the club for not going for it, seeing we were in need of quantity and quality of youth (and I reckon we've nailed our 2nds which Collingwood was initially after, seeing both Berry and Cook genuinely look like becoming something worthwhile).

A shame that implosion wasn't this year, as we would have been in a good position to gamble on it.



No. I'd hold onto pick 4, and take Roberts.

It's a big risk to drop down, and the benefit is heavily mitigated by the fact we don't need a lot of youth this year, due to how aggressively we've refreshed in the last couple of years. For instance, we're likely to still have the youngest team and list throughout 2022 as well.

It's a fair point - we have an incredibly young list and it's hard to even see what list changes we make as we have so many young guys who need time. But, Roberts is ranked around that new 1st pick now. Taking him at 4 seems silly if you could get him and upgrade your second pick? I guess it depends on how absolutely determined you are for Roberts. The other players around pick 4 don't seem like what we need.

 

[jackster83]

Let's say we stay at around pick 4 in the draft.
Horne is off the board, as is Callaghan.

Richmond call and offer the following trade:

Pick 9, 17 & 26, for
Picks 4 & 23

Richmond are super keen on Ben Hobbs, an inside mid who we are probably not going to want (and don't really need).

That would leave us with (using the latest Cal Twomey rankings) with something like:

Erasmus (if got lucky), Ward, Sonsie, Draper or Roberts. Let's say we take Draper.

Then at pick 17 we could possibly grab Goater (currently ranked at 22 incl Academy etc...).

At 26 we have plenty of options (which I don't know enough about to even attempt at a guess)

So, would you accept the deal from Richmond?

I'd rather keep pick 4.

Pick 9 will probably end up being pick 11 or 12 due to F/S bids.

I'd be keen to package up our other picks to get another pick in the first round. We might only use two live picks in the draft, as well as picking up Dudley late.

 

[Golumless]

It's a fair point - we have an incredibly young list and it's hard to even see what list changes we make as we have so many young guys who need time. But, Roberts is ranked around that new 1st pick now. Taking him at 4 seems silly if you could get him and upgrade your second pick? I guess it depends on how absolutely determined you are for Roberts. The other players around pick 4 don't seem like what we need.

We're yet to have national championships so that order should change a fair bit.

I suspect it's just a don't risk it, get your guy kind of situation. If you're going to trade down in our situation, get a first-round pick next year for the trouble, especially due to pick 4 being the likely starting position.

I'd rather keep pick 4.

Pick 9 will probably end up being pick 11 or 12 due to F/S bids.

I'd be keen to package up our other picks to get another pick in the first round. We might only use two live picks in the draft, as well as picking up Dudley late.

FS bids are completely irrelevant if you are not the bidder, or the club responding to the bid. It is still pick 9 in the open draft in that example.

 

[Mutineer]

Let's say we stay at around pick 4 in the draft.
Horne is off the board, as is Callaghan.

Richmond call and offer the following trade:

Pick 9, 17 & 26, for
Picks 4 & 23

Richmond are super keen on Ben Hobbs, an inside mid who we are probably not going to want (and don't really need).

That would leave us with (using the latest Cal Twomey rankings) with something like:

Erasmus (if got lucky), Ward, Sonsie, Draper or Roberts. Let's say we take Draper.

Then at pick 17 we could possibly grab Goater (currently ranked at 22 incl Academy etc...).

At 26 we have plenty of options (which I don't know enough about to even attempt at a guess)

So, would you accept the deal from Richmond?

Hobbs has proven he has a pretty reasonable outside game since he resumed from injury and I know it's something he's put a lot of work into....he's also hitting the scoreboard regularly which a lot of your "inside" mids don't tend to do.

 

[Dewy006]

FS bids are completely irrelevant if you are not the bidder, or the club responding to the bid. It is still pick 9 in the open draft in that example.

One of my biggest pet peeves on Bigfooty is this. Posters claiming they wouldn’t take a certain pick because it will blow out due to FS and academy picks. It’s still the same bloody pick. You’re still picking from the exact same pool of players you would of been anyway.

 

[DJ75]

Hobbs has proven he has a pretty reasonable outside game since he resumed from injury and I know it's something he's put a lot of work into....he's also hitting the scoreboard regularly which a lot of your "inside" mids don't tend to do.

Given the mix of our midfield for the next 5 years is going to be Laird, Keays, Sloane (for a year at least), maybe Crouch (probably not though), Berry, Schoenberg and Pedlar (and maybe Hately), which of the mids available at our pick do you think provide something we need most? Does Hobbs fit that category?

 

[Mutineer]

Given the mix of our midfield for the next 5 years is going to be Laird, Keays, Sloane (for a year at least), maybe Crouch (probably not though), Berry, Schoenberg and Pedlar (and maybe Hately), which of the mids available at our pick do you think provide something we need most? Does Hobbs fit that category?

Draper and Goater are the 2 I like the most for us but both won't go that high.

 

[Crows I Am]

I don't see any sense in it. Collingwood were an implosion candidate with their salary cap issues and how they handled that offseason. It was desperate trading.

Even if Daicos firmed as a pick 1 bid, Collingwood could have been playing with pick 2-3 to trade this offseason. Instead they gave it up for 24, 30 and a 4th. It was an utterly stupid trade then, for what was a team that probably expected a mid to upper table finish (despite a bunch of red flags), and has only got worse.

That trade looks incredibly bad now, Collingwood obviously thought they would finish much higher this season and backed themselves in.

 

[Dewy006]

Draper and Goater are the 2 I like the most for us but both won't go that high.

No love for Callaghan? Seems on paper to be the exact kinda mid we need. Slightly outside leaning, class and skill to burn. Models his game on Josh Kelly from what I’ve read. Kelly being in the exact mould of player I would like for our Midfield.

 

[StonesThrow]

Good news everyone.

Key defender Josh Gibcus has moved into the #6 spot in Cal Twomey's rankings.

Prepare yourself

A tall with questionable foot skills. Tick tick.

In theory, talls moving to the top end should be good for us. In practice it makes me nervous.

 

[Mutineer]

No love for Callaghan? Seems on paper to be the exact kinda mid we need. Slightly outside leaning, class and skill to burn. Models his game on Josh Kelly from what I’ve read. Kelly being in the exact mould of player I would like for our Midfield.

Fine if we can get a guarantee he won't head home at the 1st opportunity.

 

[DaKids]

Fine if we can get a guarantee he won't head home at the 1st opportunity.

Isn’t he the boy linked to the Dogs?

 

[Mutineer]

Isn’t he the boy linked to the Dogs?

yep Beveridge is married to his Mum's cousin and he sees him regularly apparently.

 

[UcantCme]

Fine if we can get a guarantee he won't head home at the 1st opportunity.

Your not going to get thst guarantee

Lever told us that he wanted to be a one club player

It's up to the club to provide a culture, footy program and environment that keeps players at the club

Yes we have lost a few however plenty have stayed as well Talia, Sloane, Lynch and players like Sholl, Hamil and Doedee have all recently re-signed

Lets not forget some players that we lost in Keath, Lyon and Greenwood all wanted to stay..

The club should always go for best talent available, and back yourself in developing the right culture, environment and footy program, if it's line ball go for the local lad

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Crom14]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey has dropped his July rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afl.com.au

Matt Roberts at 15.

 

[DJ75]

Draper and Goater are the 2 I like the most for us but both won't go that high.

So the trade down isn't a bad option given it puts us in the slot for both?

 

[Mutineer]

So the trade down isn't a bad option given it puts us in the slot for both?

I'd be very tempted unless our recruiting team see whoever is available at our pick as head and shoulders above the rest yes. This is a real midfielders draft and I won't be the least bit surprised if the best mids in this draft aren't in the first few taken. 2 for the price of one provided they have points of difference to our current list might be the go.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

Draft guru Cal Twomey has dropped his July rankings of the 2021 draft pool

www.afl.com.au

Matt Roberts at 15.

It is Cal Twomey..

and to be fair.. Roberts is also off everyone’s Radar at the moment.