List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Crow till I die]

I know it's a long way out and rankings will likely change considerably between now and draft night. If it is looking as though Roberts is around the 15 mark like in Cal's phantom, I'd hope we keep our pick 3-4 where it is, and then find a way to move into that 10-15 range to grab Roberts. Gives us the best available mid at our first pick and then the 2nd best SA mid with Roberts with our 2nd.

Just on that, if roberts happens to be anywhere around that mark, do not be surprised to see port trade up to get him

 

[Mego Red]

GWS did that because they just played off in a grand final.

They certainly weren't clamoring for picks for a rebuild, but GWS did that trade with us because they wanted Ash before a bid was made on Green, and they wanted the guarantee we wouldn't bid.

That's obvious, and not true this year.

 

[Crow till I die]

Question - given that Collingwood only has 1600 odd draft points, and their 1st pick has gone to GWS, how the hell will they be able to put together any kind of a bid to get Daicos, who Cal Twomey has listed at pick 1?
They would be signing away even more future first and second round draft picks to get 1 player?

They may trade out a player to get extra draft capital

 

[StonesThrow]

Erasmus write up sounds like a likely prospect. December birthday as well so lots of upside


Midfielder/forward
188cm/80kg
2/12/03
Subiaco/Western Australia
The tall midfielder has steadily been rising up draft boards this season and now shapes as a top-10 pick contender. Erasmus returned from a slight injury niggle on the weekend to have a strong performance in Western Australia's under-19s trial, once again highlighting his ball-getting ability. He has averaged 28 disposals at colts level for Subiaco this season after starring in their Grand Final win last year with four goals in the premiership decider. Something of a surprise packet in 2020, Erasmus has taken things up a notch in 2021.

This is who I'll be trying to track. Genuine class and a good size. Hopefully get to see more of his games playing as a mid.

 

[Dangerousfield]

They (Pies) may trade out a player to get extra draft capital

After last years fire sale they don't have anyone left that's worth anything, and I mean that. Daicos almost certain to be bid on at pick 1 meaning they need 2400 points, they are way short of that at present.

Remember, that for every pick you use to pay for a player, you have to have a list vacancy. Pies currently have four later picks so need to move on four players from their main list to use those points to pay for Daicos. Pies are in a world of pain.

Dogs who will have their late teens pick gobbled up by matching an early bid for Darcy will be looking to trade that for later picks worth more points, we need to be looking at that.

You can't look at the history of pick trades as just a numbers exercise, nearly all of those trades were done to position clubs to get a certain player at a point of the draft they were expected to be drafted.

 

[Crows I Am]

Just on that, if roberts happens to be anywhere around that mark, do not be surprised to see port trade up to get him

Yes good point, he is the type of player they are lacking in their midfield too.

 

[Crow till I die]

After last years fire sale they don't have anyone left that's worth anything, and I mean that. Daicos almost certain to be bid on at pick 1 meaning they need 2400 points, they are way short of that at present.

Remember, that for every pick you use to pay for a player, you have to have a list vacancy. Pies currently have four later picks so need to move on four players from their main list to use those points to pay for Daicos. Pies are in a world of pain.

Dogs who will have their late teens pick gobbled up by matching an early bid for Darcy will be looking to trade that for later picks worth more points, we need to be looking at that.

You can't look at the history of pick trades as just a numbers exercise, nearly all of those trades were done to position clubs to get a certain player at a point of the draft they were expected to be drafted.

There has been quite a bit of talk about maynard..he would have to be worth a 2nd rounder..that will help them if they did trade him

 

[Thetrader15]

After last years fire sale they don't have anyone left that's worth anything, and I mean that. Daicos almost certain to be bid on at pick 1 meaning they need 2400 points, they are way short of that at present.

Remember, that for every pick you use to pay for a player, you have to have a list vacancy. Pies currently have four later picks so need to move on four players from their main list to use those points to pay for Daicos. Pies are in a world of pain.

Dogs who will have their late teens pick gobbled up by matching an early bid for Darcy will be looking to trade that for later picks worth more points, we need to be looking at that.

You can't look at the history of pick trades as just a numbers exercise, nearly all of those trades were done to position clubs to get a certain player at a point of the draft they were expected to be drafted.

Pies have Brayden Sier, Chris Mayne, Mason Cox, Max Lynch and Josh Thomas all OOC this year, so they have plenty of list vacancies.

I can see them trading their 2022/2 and 3rd for picks this year too, and even if they have a deficit, who cares, they drop from 4 to 6 next year. Big deal, they still get Daicos and another top 10 next year.

The funny thing is, they probably didn't need to trade their pick this year last year, they could have waited and it would have been worth more.

Oh well, nice things happen to nice clubs.

 

[jackster83]

There has been quite a bit of talk about maynard..he would have to be worth a 2nd rounder..that will help them if they did trade him

Maynard is worth a first round pick. Better player than Saad, who we all know Carlton paid dearly for.

 

[Crow till I die]

Maynard is worth a first round pick. Better player than Saad, who we all know Carlton paid dearly for.

Contracted too. Not sure a club would jump at paying a 1st when they can wait 1 year and he is OOC, good player as he is

 

[1990crow]

Personally I think it's too hard to predict who we will get given Crouch, Talia and Lynch are looking like they will be out the door.
Likely to get a couple of second rounders at least out of that so could use to package up or trade for other players.
The way Rankine is playing I wouldn't be surprised if he wants home.
Stephens I think the rumours are pretty strong.
Effectively Crouch and Talia for those two. Would we be happy?

I personally would like to trade 2022 first to get Horne and move into next season all in the on the group we've put together and look to get free agents from here on.

Milera, Doedee, Fogarty, McPherson, Jones, McHenry, Hamill, Sholl, Butts, McAsey, Schoenberg, Worrell, Gollant, Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Berry, Horne, Stephens, Rankine, Dudley, Hately, Laird, ROB, O'Connor, Keays, Hinge

Experience of Smith, Tex, Sloane and Brown

 

[Jeffcrowe]

9 and 17 gets you a Jones and McHenry. 4 gets you a Max King. Pretty sure I know which one I’d be taking.

Haha Mchenry shouldn’t have been in the first 2 rounds

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Maynard is worth a first round pick. Better player than Saad, who we all know Carlton paid dearly for.

Maynard has indicated his desire to stay at COLL .....will sign a contract extension once the new Coach is named

He's going nowhere

 

[Gtowncrow]

Question - given that Collingwood only has 1600 odd draft points, and their 1st pick has gone to GWS, how the hell will they be able to put together any kind of a bid to get Daicos, who Cal Twomey has listed at pick 1?
They would be signing away even more future first and second round draft picks to get 1 player?

Happy to do a swap.
Pick 4 for Grundy and they pay half his salary to the end of his contract!

 

[Vhaluus]

Happy to do a swap.
Pick 4 for Grundy and they pay half his salary to the end of his contract!

Hard pass.

Grundy will not be anywhere near his best by the time we're ready for a crack at a premiership.

It could be 4 for Grundy and they paid his entire salary and I wouldn't take it.

 

[Thetrader15]

9 and 17 gets you a Jones and McHenry. 4 gets you a Max King. Pretty sure I know which one I’d be taking.

9 and 17 gets you a Butters and Duursma, 4 gets you Ben Ainsworth. Pretty sure know which one I’d be taking.

 

[Vader]

Can share the complete analysis at some point, but was looking at every draft between 2000-2015 (where we actually know what happens to these players) and based on some blunt metrics (games played, All Australians) Pick 13 has been just as successful as Pick 4.

Pick 13: 16 selections between 2000-2015, 6 All Australians (Dal Santo, Hurn, J. Riewoldt, Talia, Adams, Cripps), 5 250 gamers, only 1 played <= 50 games (Seb Tape, 2020)

Pick 4: 16 selections between 2000-2015, 4 All Australians (Kennedy, Gaff, Bontempelli, Oliver), 1 250 gamer (Kennedy, but of course Bont/Oliver likely to get there), 5 played <= 50 games (Tim Walsh 2002, Anthony Morabito 2009, Jimmy Toumpas 2012, Jarrod Pickett 2014)

Courtesy to DraftGuru for the numbers

Of course this is an overly simplistic way of looking at probability but just goes to show there's a lot of uncertainty in where AFL players are rated in their draft year, and splitting picks to have more shots at getting it right isn't necessarily a terrible idea

Pick 4 in particular seems to have a cursed history. I suspect you'd see very different results just from going one pick either side (picks 3 & 5).

 

[Golumless]

Pick 4 in particular seems to have a cursed history. I suspect you'd see very different results just from going one pick either side (picks 3 & 5).

Nah, pick 4 isn't the cursed one. That dubious honour goes to pick 6.

 

[Jarman3]

Nah, pick 4 isn't the cursed one. That dubious honour goes to pick 6.

Richard Tambling went pick 4, didn't he?

 

[Golumless]

Richard Tambling went pick 4, didn't he?

Yup. There is usually a few skeletons in the closest for every draft pick. That said, pick 4 also has some superstars, like Bontempelli, Pavlich, Gaff, Leppitsch and Matera as headliners.

Whereas, pick 6 is a wasteland for a top 10 pick (enjoy the list here: https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks/6 ) with the best player being Jack Macrae and Chad Wingard. Wasteland to the point you'd be better served having pick 40 (which is a ridiculous pick in its own right) in the last 30-40 years.

Of course, have 1000 drafts, and the performance of pick 6 would correct and look similar to 3-7. The fun of small samples sizes.

 

[jackster83]

Nah, pick 4 isn't the cursed one. That dubious honour goes to pick 6.

Ben King goes alright. Better than the players taken with picks 2, 3 and 5 in the same draft.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Haha Mchenry shouldn’t have been in the first 2 rounds

Come back to this statement in a few years time.

McHenry's game will elevate as soon as he starts getting more support around the ground with better pressure fwd's and mids.

 

[Mutineer]

Haha Mchenry shouldn’t have been in the first 2 rounds

So you reckon a 3rd round pick?

If so that's absolute rubbish and coming from someone who watched the Championships and some of his Falcons games?

 

[Truck25]

So you reckon a 3rd round pick?

If so that's absolute rubbish and coming from someone who watched the Championships and some of his Falcons games?

On another note, Toumey has one of your boys Hobbs around around our first. What's your take on this, is he a good fit and right price?

 

[Bearded Clam]

Ben King goes alright. Better than the players taken with picks 2, 3 and 5 in the same draft.

So does Clayton Oliver..