Analysis 2021 draft thread

[briztoon]

The club was very clear they were drafting for need at their first two picks, and not considering best available talent.

I wasn’t at the Melbourne draft function, so have no intel what was said there, and most/all attendees don’t appear to want to share the information.

We clearly said we rated Wilmot ahead of Sinn and Chesser, yet both were drafted before Wilmot.

Does that mean our recruiting team got their rankings wrong?

Or does it mean our recruiters adjusted their rankings to reflect the player they believed would still be available at our pick, was the top of our list.

Or did we genuinely rate Wilmot higher, as he is a defensive first half back, while Sinn is an attacking minded half back, and Chesser is more a winger who can play back?

I can understand the Wilmot selection, as there was a fair chance he wouldn’t last to our second pick.

But like Quigley, I would have gone one of the sliding mids at our second pick. Though I would have gone Goater (who I know an opposition recruiter rated as a top 10 talent, before the draft).

I believed there would be a few decent half backs and half forwards available at our third pick, but believed it unlikely any of the decent mids or KPP’s would last to 41.

I don’t know what people are referring to about posters being critical of the clubs draft choices, as the only poster I have read who went ott was Jackess.

I don’t believe our recruiting team is beyond questioning. Over the last 5 or 6 drafts, we haven’t been one of the better teams at manoeuvring picks to go for the best or better talent, unlike some other clubs. Nor does our strike rate standout, compared to other teams.

 

[dlanod]

I wasn’t at the Melbourne draft function, so have no intel what was said there, and most/all attendees don’t appear to want to share the information.

Not a whole lot came out of that because the AFL forced all the team to remain on site until the very end of the draft (after 10 pm local time) instead of releasing them after our last pick, meaning that time with them was significantly limited compared to both previous years and the Brisbane event.

 

[M Malice]

All three speak really well...

Agree they all came across great, Kai and James mature well spoken young fellas, Darcy an extrovert and funny guy.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Still kicking around. Hope that's ok with you.
I maintain my major gripe was with the 2-3 years of poor (putting it nicely) pick trading that culminated in the pick we used on Lohmann.

Sunk cost fallacy.

Pick 20 in the draft is pick 20 in the draft. It’s value doesn’t change just because it has a story.

 

[spotthedog1]

Sunk cost fallacy.

Pick 20 in the draft is pick 20 in the draft. It’s value doesn’t change just because it has a story.

Only part of what he was saying, and he acknowledged that part on that night. We don't have a great track record with trades, or draft pick positioning (last year a perfect example when we moved to a spot, then lost that pick when Blake Coleman was bid where we weren't expecting it). We end up with pick 20, and take a relatively obscure player at the time, who it seemed likely would slide. With more info, he might not have (North reportedly considering him at their pick. Then again, the Dees were considering Howes at 19).

Sunk cost is an aspect, but it also is a history of questionable performance, so when something questionable happens on the night, there's an element of skepticism.

 

[Clarkythelion]

There were 83 players picked in the draft. Every piece of data on the draft and the success of players clearly show every pick, from 1 to 88 is hit and miss. On average any one pick is more likely to fail than succeed, they top few picks do have lower odd of failure but generally it's a lotto. The clubs always have inside information the draft watchers don't, they know more about the players they have, injuries and futures and they have been out and talked to the draft hopefully which the 'watchers' haven't.

I'm a great reader of draft articles and BigFooty threads, but know little of any draftee. I back the club to have chosen players they believe in, but I know the stats don't lie, we will be lucky to get 1 of 3 through and I remember recent years when we chose only 3 we got none through.

Go Lions, I wish for 3 from 3, but hope for 1 from 3.

 

[briztoon]

Only part of what he was saying, and he acknowledged that part on that night. We don't have a great track record with trades, or draft pick positioning (last year a perfect example when we moved to a spot, then lost that pick when Blake Coleman was bid where we weren't expecting it). We end up with pick 20, and take a relatively obscure player at the time, who it seemed likely would slide. With more info, he might not have (North reportedly considering him at their pick. Then again, the Dees were considering Howes at 19).

Sunk cost is an aspect, but it also is a history of questionable performance, so when something questionable happens on the night, there's an element of skepticism.

On the bolded part, that’s not quite true.

We were expecting it, as it was rumoured before we made the trade that Collingwood might bid on Coleman. And then we traded right into the range where many draft watchers rated him.

There was palpable relief on here when Collingwood made their two first round picks, without bidding on Coleman.

Thought we’d escaped.

But the Collingwood traded back in, as they had openly discussed they were wanting to do.

 

[Lace Out]

All these horrible trades and draft picks/strategies..keep it going Lions because I have really enjoyed playing finals the last 3 years

 

[martinson]

I wouldn't pretend to really know but on any vision I saw I really liked the look of Johnson and Goater. Obviously there are people full time on drafting who would have 95% of the intel and personal profiles compared to my 5% so I respect their choices.

But to say we really got it right because other teams wanted these guys or whatever is just as nutty as those who say we got it totally wrong . Let's come back in 3 years time and we'll have some idea.

Our drafting overall over the last 20 years has been average so that might explain some of the angst. Mind you lots other teams have worse records . The trend seems to be having lots of crap picks and then hitting it lucky for a year or two. I'm sure our guys have lots of experience at the game and made what they believe were the best options for us when our picks came up.

What I do like is that our 3 picks seem athletic types with the capacity to get a lot stronger with a couple of years in the system. So let's hope they're guns.

 

[Hollow Knight]

But to say we really got it right because other teams wanted these guys or whatever is just as nutty as those who say we got it totally wrong .

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

 

[mpal6]

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

Yep, he would've been gone in that 21 to 30 block. It would be impossible to get it right unless we are trading back something like one spot and getting a second rounder freebie for it. Its the same problem Freo had with pick 21, they wanted Johnson or Goater but trading with Hawks and falling behind 2 spots would mean they might have missed out on both.

 

[irel]

All these horrible trades and draft picks/strategies..keep it going Lions because I have really enjoyed playing finals the last 3 years

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

 

[Dalions]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

A little hard to judge the club on late pick fails.
Other than Ely the rest are late picks during a period where the club decided to trade for needs.
Who else did we get in during that period?
Neale, Lyons, McCarthy, Daniher, Charlie the year before, Cocky who really could be anything, Birchall, Adams and the best one of the lot in my eyes Hodge.
During the period you speak of, it has been a definite pass.
The draft is not everything.

 

[JasRulz63]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

The drafting is definitely looking like a miss that season, but at least the trading aspect (Neale, Adams, Linc, Beams for two firsts, pick swap with GC) made up for it so we didn't see as big a hit.

 

[briztoon]

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

Again, I didn’t read everything posted here on draft night. Were other people saying we could of, or should of? Or was it just Jackess?

 

[briztoon]

I wouldn't pretend to really know but on any vision I saw I really liked the look of Johnson and Goater. Obviously there are people full time on drafting who would have 95% of the intel and personal profiles compared to my 5% so I respect their choices.

But to say we really got it right because other teams wanted these guys or whatever is just as nutty as those who say we got it totally wrong . Let's come back in 3 years time and we'll have some idea.

Our drafting overall over the last 20 years has been average so that might explain some of the angst. Mind you lots other teams have worse records . The trend seems to be having lots of crap picks and then hitting it lucky for a year or two. I'm sure our guys have lots of experience at the game and made what they believe were the best options for us when our picks came up.

What I do like is that our 3 picks seem athletic types with the capacity to get a lot stronger with a couple of years in the system. So let's hope they're guns.

I don’t believe it’s fair to judge the team’s recruiting over a 20 year period, because it wouldn’t have been the same recruiters.

Judge the current team on their performances since 2016.

 

[dlanod]

I don’t believe it’s fair to judge the team’s recruiting over a 20 year period, because it wouldn’t have been the same recruiters.

Judge the current team on their performances since 2016.

Conole has been with us since 2011.

Ambroglio since 2017.

Seems relatively logical to judge drafting and trading from those dates respectively.

 

[KissKiss]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

The other consideration that you need to make some calls on who else could have drafted? Were there others after that would have been better options?

 

[irel]

A little hard to judge the club on late pick fails.
Other than Ely the rest are late picks during a period where the club decided to trade for needs.
Who else did we get in during that period?
Neale, Lyons, McCarthy, Daniher, Charlie the year before, Cocky who really could be anything, Birchall, Adams and the best one of the lot in my eyes Hodge.
During the period you speak of, it has been a definite pass.
The draft is not everything.

Yes, I am aware the draft is not everything. I am enjoying our ascension to contenders the last three years. I too think our player trading has been successful, however this is the Draft Thread and the general consciences is it takes three years before we can make some sort of judgement on the current drafting team in relation to their drafting strategies and selections. So going back three years as of current status IMO 2018 draft is a fail.

Actually I believe the judgement on Conole is if he got it correct with his top picks. Generally there is only one round 1 pick and it is critical that that pick is successful. In 2018 we had four late picks. One is bound to make some impact so judging recruiters on late pick success means they failed the critical test..

 

[irel]

The other consideration that you need to make some calls on who else could have drafted? Were there others after that would have been better options?

That is not my call because I would be drafting with hindsight and will have 100% success.

 

[spotthedog1]

On the bolded part, that’s not quite true.

We were expecting it, as it was rumoured before we made the trade that Collingwood might bid on Coleman. And then we traded right into the range where many draft watchers rated him.

There was palpable relief on here when Collingwood made their two first round picks, without bidding on Coleman.

Thought we’d escaped.

But the Collingwood traded back in, as they had openly discussed they were wanting to do.

Yep. And it's tough to know without knowing all the inner machinations. But if we were expecting it, then effectively, we saw a trap coming and still fell for it. I don't recall another team having a first round pick used as part of the matching process for a long time. We've seen some really shrewd trading from other clubs with [bid > trade out > match > trade back in] scenarios, or trading up to get ahead of the bid (getting a first round pick + Coleman), or trading back behind the bid and accruing points/future picks.

I actually think our player selection has been pretty decent in the last few years. We've ended up with some decent players from speccy picks. But our overall strategy has generally been lacking. So it's not surprising that when we take a player no one has heard of in the first round, people assume our positioning is wrong again.

 

[spotthedog1]

All these horrible trades and draft picks/strategies..keep it going Lions because I have really enjoyed playing finals the last 3 years

Very poor argument. Poor draft strategies hurt us in 5-10 years time. No one is saying a good draft pick will be the difference in the very next season.

Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.

Might be wrong, but I don't recall anyone saying we'd be able to pick him up at 41. A few, myself included, suggested that if we liked a bolter (and all of the reporting on the night was that Lohmann was a bolter - Cal Twomey basically had to look at his notes), then surely we should've traded back a few spots. I think I suggested a late 20s pick, maybe package 20+41 for two of the Richmond ones. With more info, yeah, we probably wouldn't have got away with that, so fair enough, but given the media reporting, it wasn't an unreasonable suggestion...

 

[Quigley]

A little hard to judge the club on late pick fails.
Other than Ely the rest are late picks during a period where the club decided to trade for needs.
Who else did we get in during that period?
Neale, Lyons, McCarthy, Daniher, Charlie the year before, Cocky who really could be anything, Birchall, Adams and the best one of the lot in my eyes Hodge.
During the period you speak of, it has been a definite pass.
The draft is not everything.

Hitting on the late picks is often the thing that gets a team right to the top of the tree and keeps them their when they get there. The Academy is a big advantage for us with later picks but lately we have not really taken advantage of that.

 

[twhowler]

Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:

1	21	Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
2	36	Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
2	40	Tom Joyce - Gone
2	42	Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
3	55	Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.

Looking at recent drafts, there seems to usually be a pretty good top 30, and it drops off after that. It can vary year to year.

For that reason the big disappointment in this draft is Ely Smith. He was a reach nobody was interested in, and is yet to play a game. One year left but yes at this stage poor.

Tom Berry at 36 - yes it looks like last chance saloon. But he's about what you get at 36. Some chance of success. He has not been a complete dud.

Tom Joyce - gone but pick 40.

McFadyen - a bit unlucky given did a knee. Always makes it harder

Answerth - see what happens with form and injury. but at pick 55 you would take him every day of the week

So not a great draft

But we didn't have a flush hand

If we get the Ely pick right it would have been on balance a good draft. We didn't so it wasn't.

 

[dlanod]

The other consideration that you need to make some calls on who else could have drafted? Were there others after that would have been better options?

That is not my call because I would be drafting with hindsight and will have 100% success.

It's also worth limiting yourself to the next five picks or so in this exercise. You can always find a winner at some later pick, e.g. Rockliff going in the PSD, but if no one else rated them either is it really a specific failure of our team?