Analysis 2021 trade thread

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jackess

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I was watching their show last night & had quite the chuckle or two.

It's all very much Vic biased. I'm not even sure it's intentional, moreso just the fact they don't try to hide their bias.

The premiership window was my favourite part of their show. Melbourne & the Bulldogs have a never ending premiership window that starts now.

Port have a premiership window from 2022 to 2026.

The Lions have a premiership window from 2022 to 2025. Have they even looked at the age profile of our list? Or considered the draft hand we have this year & the talent set to come into our club in 2022?

I'm not mad. Just disappointed. :D
Ollie Wines is 27, Lycett 29 and Boak 33. Their other mids haven't consistently performed in the midfield. I can't see Port being much of a threat after next season
 

BangyBangy

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Ollie Wines is 27, Lycett 29 and Boak 33. Their other mids haven't consistently performed in the midfield. I can't see Port being much of a threat after next season
I actually agree with that bit. Unless their younger players come on & step up in their absence. One of the things that gave me a chuckle was their position that our window is shorter than Ports.
 

mattsmob

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Ollie Wines is 27, Lycett 29 and Boak 33. Their other mids haven't consistently performed in the midfield. I can't see Port being much of a threat after next season
I'm not sure if I really view them as much of a threat this season, their midfield is decent but with our depth through there we have at least an equivalent midfield and our forwards and backs walk all over them.
 

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davemc_lions

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if Ballenden does get delisted would not mind picking him up as a VFL player.
Think he improved this year.. Maybe another year in the VFL only as we have no spots might work.

I do wonder with smaller lists there needs a safety net for players who miss out or pushed out early to get on a list via VFL or state squad
A new Cat V or something you can have 5 players on your list who play state footy.
Can also be promoted only for long term injuries. Otherwise on VFL wages.

I do think players like Ballenden, Joyce or B Smith getting pushed out earlier then they would of with 3 extra spots.
There also be kids not ready that clubs will not want to spare a spot for development
 

Jason mp

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I was watching their show last night & had quite the chuckle or two.

It's all very much Vic biased. I'm not even sure it's intentional, moreso just the fact they don't try to hide their bias.

The premiership window was my favourite part of their show. Melbourne & the Bulldogs have a never ending premiership window that starts now.

Port have a premiership window from 2022 to 2026.

The Lions have a premiership window from 2022 to 2025. Have they even looked at the age profile of our list? Or considered the draft hand we have this year & the talent set to come into our club in 2022?

I'm not mad. Just disappointed. :D
Yer, it's laughable.

Our "older" players who will be hard to replace to extend our flag window are Dayne Zorko(32), Daniel Rich(31), Jarryd Lyons(29) and Lachie Neale(28), hopefully whoever we get in this years draft + the guaranteed acquisition of Will Ashcroft and Jaspa Fletcher next year will go a long way to filling that coming void. We also have Dev Robertson who could be one solution as a long term inside mid for Neale/Lyons.
 

spotthedog1

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Some commentators really need to get their marbles checked.
Jon Ralph explains clearly that we don't have the cap space to bring in a Gunston, yet Kingy blabbers on for the next 2-3 mins about using pick 18 to bring in a Gunston.
Lets get something straight we still have two first round picks - who knows they could be the next Bailey (pick 15) and Starcevich (pick 18).
We also got Fort (a need) and upgraded to pick 41 - still a potential to get us a good player. Who knows we could even package later picks to get something in the late 20s or early 30s.
I don't agree with them on the C grade, or the "fail" mark, or whatever else... But the salary cap vs trade issue is a reasonable discussion.

This year, trading portions of salary cap was a big point. Hawthorn made it known that they had the salary cap, they just wanted picks. We could've taken Gunston or Breust, and if we gave up a pick 18, Hawks would have been willing to take on the majority of the payroll.

Hawks get extra draft pick value, pay $400k of the salary
We get an A-grade player, only pay minimum wage

Then, it just depends on whether you want the highest chance to win in a 1 or 2 year period, followed by a drop, or a sustained high level, albeit not quite as high as otherwise.

If we traded 14 and 18, and got in 2x Hawthorn top level players who would genuinely be top 10 players on our list... We'd be the favourites for the 2022 cup.
But
Then we'd lose some internal growth, and 2 first rounder players. When Zorko, Neale, Gunston, O'Meara all retire... we'd be out of the running.

Obviously then, it's a matter of how much improvement the players you are looking at bring, and whether that's worth the sacrifice.
 

Tom14

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I don't agree with them on the C grade, or the "fail" mark, or whatever else... But the salary cap vs trade issue is a reasonable discussion.

This year, trading portions of salary cap was a big point. Hawthorn made it known that they had the salary cap, they just wanted picks. We could've taken Gunston or Breust, and if we gave up a pick 18, Hawks would have been willing to take on the majority of the payroll.

Hawks get extra draft pick value, pay $400k of the salary
We get an A-grade player, only pay minimum wage

Then, it just depends on whether you want the highest chance to win in a 1 or 2 year period, followed by a drop, or a sustained high level, albeit not quite as high as otherwise.

If we traded 14 and 18, and got in 2x Hawthorn top level players who would genuinely be top 10 players on our list... We'd be the favourites for the 2022 cup.
But
Then we'd lose some internal growth, and 2 first rounder players. When Zorko, Neale, Gunston, O'Meara all retire... we'd be out of the running.

Obviously then, it's a matter of how much improvement the players you are looking at bring, and whether that's worth the sacrifice.
All this assumes that any hawks player would have been willing to come to us too - I don't think we bothered to ask the question of any of them, but on the other hand, seems unlikely to me that Breust or Wingard would have been interested. Even with hawthorn paying some salary, would have been hard to fit in a player like Mitchell I think.

Gunston is an interesting one as I think if fit he could play even if we have all our tall forwards fit and firing. But he hasn't played in a year and given that it is a back injury and his age it makes it a risky proposition. 15 other clubs seemingly had no interest in any of the hawks players which suggests that they players weren't interested in moving, Hawthorn wanted too much in draft compensation, or no decent contender had anywhere close to the $ to fit any of them in.
 

Clarkythelion

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I think the Victorian media focus on the here and now, who has improved to win the Grand final in the next year. The Lions, whom I think can win the GF however also have to keep an eye on the sporting environment in Qld. If I was sitting in the Lions board room I would be driving for sustained success - the next 5 to 8 years playing finals at least. Brisbane is getting a new NRL franchise and the media will focus on that and frustrated Broncos fans who have been choosing to experiment with the Lions will go see the new team. The Lions must play finals, bring in the son's of our great places, build a community and interact with it and retain membership. If we win a few grand finals on the way then that is great. King and the egocentric Victorian media have never taken an interest outside of the AFL and don't see the bigger picture of winning hearts and minds of non-AFL supporter bases. The Lions are nicely set now over the next 2 years for sustained success over the next 5. AFL in Qld needs the Suns to perform this year, the Suns need to resign their youth and Clarkson probably needs to coach them in 2023 or the Lions risk being a lone outpost surrounded by 4 NRL teams plu the Qld Reds who have also built for sustained success from within in the Rugby Union.
 

Since 2001

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Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?
 

PattyKwasagun

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Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?
I'm not sure if you're suggesting us trading our two 2021 first rounders for Hawthorn's 2022 first & second rounders (that's how I read your message), but if so I can't see any way that happens. If anything, we will be open to getting out of next year's first round - not into it.

I think if a club came to us with some kind of an offer to get into this year's first round at the expense of our first rounder next year, we might consider it and figure out another way to get the points needed next year - but after a few lean drafting years I can only see us being interested in strengthening our 2021 draft hand if we do anything at all.
 

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Since 2001

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I'm not sure if you're suggesting us trading our two 2021 first rounders for Hawthorn's 2022 first & second rounders (that's how I read your message), but if so I can't see any way that happens. If anything, we will be open to getting out of next year's first round - not into it.

I think if a club came to us with some kind of an offer to get into this year's first round at the expense of our first rounder next year, we might consider it and figure out another way to get the points needed next year - but after a few lean drafting years I can only see us being interested in strengthening our 2021 draft hand if we do anything at all.
My thoughts were the opposite, early first next year and early 2nd next year and lions hit the 2023 draft hard by using the hawks first and the hawks hit this years draft.

This was a thought because you 1st 2nd n 4th wouldn't be enough pts
 

spotthedog1

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My thoughts were the opposite, early first next year and early 2nd next year and lions hit the 2023 draft hard by using the hawks first and the hawks hit this years draft.

This was a thought because you 1st 2nd n 4th wouldn't be enough pts
I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. Not specifically what our normal plan would be at the moment, but that deal only has upside for us. We'd then need to trade out your first next year.

Would be amazed if the Hawks offered it up though. Only way they'd consider it is if the list manager believes the Brisbane future first curse.
 

BangyBangy

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Gunston is an interesting one as I think if fit he could play even if we have all our tall forwards fit and firing. But he hasn't played in a year and given that it is a back injury and his age it makes it a risky proposition. 15 other clubs seemingly had no interest in any of the hawks players which suggests that they players weren't interested in moving, Hawthorn wanted too much in draft compensation, or no decent contender had anywhere close to the $ to fit any of them in.
Massive risk vs reward scenario with that trade. Wouldn't even entertain it for a first round pick.

And if you think you've got sufficient improvement within the existing group you're better off using that pick at the draft with an eye on sustained success.

Clearly the club thinks we're not that far off, I agree with them. I have already done the ladder predictor for 2022, I don't see where we lose a game ;)
 

Since 2001

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I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. Not specifically what our normal plan would be at the moment, but that deal only has upside for us. We'd then need to trade out your first next year.

Would be amazed if the Hawks offered it up though. Only way they'd consider it is if the list manager believes the Brisbane future first curse.
Ive heard mitchell wants to hit the draft hard in his first year and the trade makes sense. We get 14 and 18 to draft first round talent. Brisbane get 21 and a possible top 6 draft pick in 2022 that can be traded on
 

BangyBangy

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Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?
I'm sure our recruiting & football department are clever enough to accrue sufficient points without trading away our two 2021 first round picks.

It's been four years since we've had a pick inside 20. This year given the circumstances is a perfect time to hit the draft & get a bit of top end youth through the door.
 

Dalions

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What I really liked about the trade period from a Lions perspective was that other than the early speculation of Neale thinking about a move back West. There was no talk of any other player wanting to move on.
The club is in a much better place now in comparison to just a few short years ago.
 

Warwick

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if Ballenden does get delisted would not mind picking him up as a VFL player.
Think he improved this year.. Maybe another year in the VFL only as we have no spots might work.

I do wonder with smaller lists there needs a safety net for players who miss out or pushed out early to get on a list via VFL or state squad
A new Cat V or something you can have 5 players on your list who play state footy.
Can also be promoted only for long term injuries. Otherwise on VFL wages.

I do think players like Ballenden, Joyce or B Smith getting pushed out earlier then they would of with 3 extra spots.
There also be kids not ready that clubs will not want to spare a spot for development
The problem with Ballenden is that he is too damn soft. Very hard to coach that into a player.

See Schache.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?
I'd take that trade purely for the possibility that Mitchell is a total disaster as coach and we get pick 1 from you before matching Ashcroft at pick 2. Hawthorn would know that's a possibility though, so I don't see them making that trade.
 

Jason mp

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