Analysis 2021 trade thread

[blueiris]

Yep somehow been labelled one of the few losers of the draft.. yet we haven’t actually lost anything

David King is an idiot, a total idiot.

King and Lloyd piss me off the most both talk utter shite about the Lions every chance they can get

 

[dlanod]

seems unlikely to me that Breust or Wingard would have been interested

Breust absolutely knocked back a move to Sydney, so I can't see why he'd be more keen to go to Brisbane.

 

[Clarkythelion]

I think the Victorian media focus on the here and now, who has improved to win the Grand final in the next year. The Lions, whom I think can win the GF however also have to keep an eye on the sporting environment in Qld. If I was sitting in the Lions board room I would be driving for sustained success - the next 5 to 8 years playing finals at least. Brisbane is getting a new NRL franchise and the media will focus on that and frustrated Broncos fans who have been choosing to experiment with the Lions will go see the new team. The Lions must play finals, bring in the son's of our great places, build a community and interact with it and retain membership. If we win a few grand finals on the way then that is great. King and the egocentric Victorian media have never taken an interest outside of the AFL and don't see the bigger picture of winning hearts and minds of non-AFL supporter bases. The Lions are nicely set now over the next 2 years for sustained success over the next 5. AFL in Qld needs the Suns to perform this year, the Suns need to resign their youth and Clarkson probably needs to coach them in 2023 or the Lions risk being a lone outpost surrounded by 4 NRL teams plu the Qld Reds who have also built for sustained success from within in the Rugby Union.

 

[Since 2001]

Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?

I'm not sure if you're suggesting us trading our two 2021 first rounders for Hawthorn's 2022 first & second rounders (that's how I read your message), but if so I can't see any way that happens. If anything, we will be open to getting out of next year's first round - not into it.

I think if a club came to us with some kind of an offer to get into this year's first round at the expense of our first rounder next year, we might consider it and figure out another way to get the points needed next year - but after a few lean drafting years I can only see us being interested in strengthening our 2021 draft hand if we do anything at all.

 

[Since 2001]

I'm not sure if you're suggesting us trading our two 2021 first rounders for Hawthorn's 2022 first & second rounders (that's how I read your message), but if so I can't see any way that happens. If anything, we will be open to getting out of next year's first round - not into it.

I think if a club came to us with some kind of an offer to get into this year's first round at the expense of our first rounder next year, we might consider it and figure out another way to get the points needed next year - but after a few lean drafting years I can only see us being interested in strengthening our 2021 draft hand if we do anything at all.

My thoughts were the opposite, early first next year and early 2nd next year and lions hit the 2023 draft hard by using the hawks first and the hawks hit this years draft.

This was a thought because you 1st 2nd n 4th wouldn't be enough pts

 

[spotthedog1]

My thoughts were the opposite, early first next year and early 2nd next year and lions hit the 2023 draft hard by using the hawks first and the hawks hit this years draft.

This was a thought because you 1st 2nd n 4th wouldn't be enough pts

I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. Not specifically what our normal plan would be at the moment, but that deal only has upside for us. We'd then need to trade out your first next year.

Would be amazed if the Hawks offered it up though. Only way they'd consider it is if the list manager believes the Brisbane future first curse.

 

[BangyBangy]

Gunston is an interesting one as I think if fit he could play even if we have all our tall forwards fit and firing. But he hasn't played in a year and given that it is a back injury and his age it makes it a risky proposition. 15 other clubs seemingly had no interest in any of the hawks players which suggests that they players weren't interested in moving, Hawthorn wanted too much in draft compensation, or no decent contender had anywhere close to the $ to fit any of them in.

Massive risk vs reward scenario with that trade. Wouldn't even entertain it for a first round pick.

And if you think you've got sufficient improvement within the existing group you're better off using that pick at the draft with an eye on sustained success.

Clearly the club thinks we're not that far off, I agree with them. I have already done the ladder predictor for 2022, I don't see where we lose a game

 

[Since 2001]

I'd do that trade in a heartbeat. Not specifically what our normal plan would be at the moment, but that deal only has upside for us. We'd then need to trade out your first next year.

Would be amazed if the Hawks offered it up though. Only way they'd consider it is if the list manager believes the Brisbane future first curse.

Ive heard mitchell wants to hit the draft hard in his first year and the trade makes sense. We get 14 and 18 to draft first round talent. Brisbane get 21 and a possible top 6 draft pick in 2022 that can be traded on

 

[BangyBangy]

Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?

I'm sure our recruiting & football department are clever enough to accrue sufficient points without trading away our two 2021 first round picks.

It's been four years since we've had a pick inside 20. This year given the circumstances is a perfect time to hit the draft & get a bit of top end youth through the door.

 

[Dalions]

What I really liked about the trade period from a Lions perspective was that other than the early speculation of Neale thinking about a move back West. There was no talk of any other player wanting to move on.
The club is in a much better place now in comparison to just a few short years ago.

 

[BuntonRules]

Having Darcy to train against will not hurt Oscar's development as a top ruckman.

 

[blueiris]

Having Darcy to train against will not hurt Oscar's development as a top ruckman.

Fort loves the way Oscar plays and can’t wait to play double team ruck/forward combination

 

[Warwick]

if Ballenden does get delisted would not mind picking him up as a VFL player.
Think he improved this year.. Maybe another year in the VFL only as we have no spots might work.

I do wonder with smaller lists there needs a safety net for players who miss out or pushed out early to get on a list via VFL or state squad
A new Cat V or something you can have 5 players on your list who play state footy.
Can also be promoted only for long term injuries. Otherwise on VFL wages.

I do think players like Ballenden, Joyce or B Smith getting pushed out earlier then they would of with 3 extra spots.
There also be kids not ready that clubs will not want to spare a spot for development

The problem with Ballenden is that he is too damn soft. Very hard to coach that into a player.

See Schache.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?

I'd take that trade purely for the possibility that Mitchell is a total disaster as coach and we get pick 1 from you before matching Ashcroft at pick 2. Hawthorn would know that's a possibility though, so I don't see them making that trade.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Is Fletcher a mid? Is there a link I can read which gives some background on his profile?

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

 

[M Malice]

draftcentral.com.au

This domain may be for sale!

afl.draftcentral.com.au

Riley McMillan getting some bloody good write ups in those reports as well... what a melt down there would be in AFL "heartland" if we got priority access to not 1, not 2 but 3 highly rated prospects in the one draft , come on down Will, Jaspa and Riley.

 

[Viceregal]

Riley McMillan getting some bloody good write ups in those reports as well... what a melt down there would be in AFL "heartland" if we got priority access to not 1, not 2 but 3 highly rated prospects in the one draft , come on down Will, Jaspa and Riley.

Pretty good chance they would never touch the father-son side of things as they benefit themselves from that ... but should a day come where picks 1, 2 and 3 were all ours just by virtue of academy well the ghost of Maguire past will likely give them some helpful hints.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Riley McMillan getting some bloody good write ups in those reports as well... what a melt down there would be in AFL "heartland" if we got priority access to not 1, not 2 but 3 highly rated prospects in the one draft , come on down Will, Jaspa and Riley.

 

[rusty08]

Is Fletcher a mid? Is there a link I can read which gives some background on his profile?

He's done some growing over last year 1/2.

 

[blueiris]

He's done some growing over last year 1/2.

Hopefully he can have a growth spurt like Hipwood

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Hi, not sure what the lions pts situation is like for next year for Ashcroft.

Just assuming im correct, next year lions have 1st (14), 2nd (33), 4th (72) = 1743 points = pick 7

Trade:
14+18 (2021) = 2366 points and If the hawks improve and finish 12th - It would be 7 (2022) and 21(2021) 2522 point. .

Lions 2022 picks: 7, 14, 33, 72, 90 = 3387 points = pick 1 and 43

Gives them the ability to trade out picks for a 2022 second and/or third and future picks 2023

Thoughts?

The Ashcroft situation will work itself out next year. Best case as a standout number 1 pick he will cost us 2400 points, our two first pick will be worth 1500. Gaining a couple of picks in the 40s shouldn't be too hard and make up the required points.

With a decent likelihood of the pick falling after Ashcroft, to get maximum value we’d have to trade that pick again into 2023. Just doubles our chances of losing value, especially as we’d be needing to move it.

From our point of view, the next two drafts will be viewed as restocking for a consistent period of success. We need to start developing some more higher end prospects, to replace Zorko and Rich especially. With your hypothetical, that development is delayed into the 2023 draft, when realistically Zorko will done and Rich on his last legs, ideally we start stocking now.

 

[mattsmob]

The Ashcroft situation will work itself out next year. Best case as a standout number 1 pick he will cost us 2400 points, our two first pick will be worth 1500. Gaining a couple of picks in the 40s shouldn't be too hard and make up the required points.

With a decent likelihood of the pick falling after Ashcroft, to get maximum value we’d have to trade that pick again into 2023. Just doubles our chances of losing value, especially as we’d be needing to move it.

From our point of view, the next two drafts will be viewed as restocking for a consistent period of success. We need to start developing some more higher end prospects, to replace Zorko and Rich especially. With your hypothetical, that development is delayed into the 2023 draft, when realistically Zorko will done and Rich on his last legs, ideally we start stocking now.

Agree, I would be willing to somewhat sacrifice our 2023 draft hand with a deficit after the first round, especially if it strengthens our hand in this draft.

 

[mattsmob]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I belive Danny Daly mentioned Fort coming here on a 3 year deal, what’s everyone’s thoughts on that? If list sizes go back up I can’t see it being much of an issue but if they remain the same I can’t see all of Fort, Fullarton, Lane and H. Smith being here in 3 years.

 

[briztoon]

Did I miss hear Daly on the Roar Deal today, or did he say the club hopes to be a more active player in the trade period next year?

There’s this tall defender at Collingwood I like…