Analysis 2021 trade thread

[martinson]

So many posts talking about 'when Hippy comes back'.

People planning on something that certainly won't be happening till the latter part of 2022 if all goes well. And then they assume all our available good talls will be fit and up and running at the same time. What about if one or even two of them go down ?

If 2021 taught anyone anything it was that you need to be prepared for injuries, either of a season's duration or through periods during the season. The game's changed but we had Beau McDonald

Beau Mcdonald

Age

46

Ht

203cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.2

2star

K

3.4

1star

HB

2.8

2star

HO

17.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

5.4

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

1.8

2star

HO

5.6

5star

,Keating, Lynch , Brown and Bradshaw in the same team apart from utilities who played tall.

My preference is to play 2 rucks even with Hipwood, Daniher and McStay in the team. The later 3 whom anyone would consider on the agile side for big forwards.

 

[JasRulz63]

Uncertainty at Hawthorn but key players not discussed

Hawthorn’s attempt to shake up the trade period has not resulted in the club being able to gain high draft picks with key players set to remain at Waverley.

www.theage.com.au

Hawthorn also allowed contracted ruckman Jonathon Ceglar

15

Jonathon Ceglar

Age

35

Ht

204cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.2

4star

CL

2.2

4star

HO

21.0

5star

D

10.7

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

5.7

3star

CL

3.8

5star

HO

22.3

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

6.4

4star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

13.4

5star

to explore his options in the trade period with Geelong showing initial interest in the 30-year-old ruckman however sources at the Cats said on Friday they were unlikely to make that deal.

Geelong might not trade us Fort anyway if Ceglar is unlikely. Wonder if Ceglar would have any interest in Brisbane, and vice versa.

 

[BangyBangy]

Uncertainty at Hawthorn but key players not discussed

Hawthorn’s attempt to shake up the trade period has not resulted in the club being able to gain high draft picks with key players set to remain at Waverley.

www.theage.com.au

Geelong might not trade us Fort anyway if Ceglar is unlikely. Wonder if Ceglar would have any interest in Brisbane, and vice versa.

Ceglar to the Cats is interesting. Hawks are trying to get high draft picks & are prepared to grease the wheels by paying part of the wages of the outgoing players (I assume). Ceglar isn't a player that will get them a high draft pick so they probably aren't overly keen on subsidizing his wage next year, and the Cats want them to, hence the sticking point in this trade.

Can't see him coming to us in any case. We've got minimal cap space & can't offer him a Cotton on franchise post career to compensate.

 

[JasRulz63]

Ceglar to the Cats is interesting. Hawks are trying to get high draft picks & are prepared to grease the wheels by paying part of the wages of the outgoing players (I assume). Ceglar isn't a player that will get them a high draft pick so they probably aren't overly keen on subsidizing his wage next year, and the Cats want them to, hence the sticking point in this trade.

Can't see him coming to us in any case. We've got minimal cap space & can't offer him a Cotton on franchise post career to compensate.

I agree. Given both are back-ups, if you're Geelong you wouldn't want to spend much more cap and/or draft capital wise getting Ceglar than what you receive for Fort.

 

[cotter101]

Listened to the the Daly interview. Really just seems like Lachie genuinely decided to stay at club rather then a “I’ll see out my contract”. They looked like they enjoyed the lifestyle in QLD pre covid and that should be coming back very shortly.

 

[Clarkythelion]

So many posts talking about 'when Hippy comes back'.

People planning on something that certainly won't be happening till the latter part of 2022 if all goes well. And then they assume all our available good talls will be fit and up and running at the same time. What about if one or even two of them go down ?

If 2021 taught anyone anything it was that you need to be prepared for injuries, either of a season's duration or through periods during the season. The game's changed but we had Beau McDonald ,Keating, Lynch , Brown and Bradshaw in the same team apart from utilities who played tall.

My preference is to play 2 rucks even with Hipwood, Daniher and McStay in the team. The later 3 whom anyone would consider on the agile side for big forwards.

Good point, well done. Lets hope Hippy becomes our next Mr September and just like Clark Keating wins us the premiership

 

[Mighty Lions]

So you don’t agree with the opinion we need to get someone, besides Lane, in case Oscar goes down? To honestly believe we can beat the best sides with Lane as first ruck I think you would have to be kidding, that’s my opinion.

Read my post mate. I'm not saying Lane can go solo in the ruck if Oscar goes down!!!

 

[Mighty Lions]

So many posts talking about 'when Hippy comes back'.

People planning on something that certainly won't be happening till the latter part of 2022 if all goes well. And then they assume all our available good talls will be fit and up and running at the same time. What about if one or even two of them go down ?

If 2021 taught anyone anything it was that you need to be prepared for injuries, either of a season's duration or through periods during the season. The game's changed but we had Beau McDonald ,Keating, Lynch , Brown and Bradshaw in the same team apart from utilities who played tall.

My preference is to play 2 rucks even with Hipwood, Daniher and McStay in the team. The later 3 whom anyone would consider on the agile side for big forwards.

How do you know that?
What if he's back in July?

 

[lioninthesand]

So many posts talking about 'when Hippy comes back'.

People planning on something that certainly won't be happening till the latter part of 2022 if all goes well. And then they assume all our available good talls will be fit and up and running at the same time. What about if one or even two of them go down ?

If 2021 taught anyone anything it was that you need to be prepared for injuries, either of a season's duration or through periods during the season. The game's changed but we had Beau McDonald ,Keating, Lynch , Brown and Bradshaw in the same team apart from utilities who played tall.

My preference is to play 2 rucks even with Hipwood, Daniher and McStay in the team. The later 3 whom anyone would consider on the agile side for big forwards.

Going into this year it was already debated we were too tall without the 5th (second ruck). We are a slow side who gets ripped apart on the rebound. To play that 5th tall you would sacrifice a mid/winger. Personally, I think it would be simply untenable.

Take last years finals team, leave Fullerton in and add Fort to the line up whilst sacrificing a mid- would be the closet, relevant example to that line up. It would have been comical.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Going into this year it was already debated we were too tall without the 5th (second ruck). We are a slow side who gets ripped apart on the rebound. To play that 5th tall you would sacrifice a mid/winger. Personally, I think it would be simply untenable.

Take last years finals team, leave Fullerton in and add Fort to the line up whilst sacrificing a mid- would be the closet, relevant example to that line up. It would have been comical.

I dont think we are slow side in general. I think we get beat on the rebound because our effort is not there. We need more defensive running from players who dont put in the effort. (mids and 1 small forward in particular) There are 3-4 of them that dont do it and I really hope that changes in 2022 because it will improve our game significantly. I do know its a focus of the coaching group. Watching a live game exposes these players because you can see them walking when the ball is not in our hands. Television doesnt pick that up.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Read my post mate. I'm not saying Lane can go solo in the ruck if Oscar goes down!!!

Oh right…….you did not like me using the term ‘kidding yourself’, I assume because you think it’s condescending- then use an eye roll emoji. Nice work.

 

[briztoon]

So many posts talking about 'when Hippy comes back'.

People planning on something that certainly won't be happening till the latter part of 2022 if all goes well. And then they assume all our available good talls will be fit and up and running at the same time. What about if one or even two of them go down ?

If 2021 taught anyone anything it was that you need to be prepared for injuries, either of a season's duration or through periods during the season. The game's changed but we had Beau McDonald ,Keating, Lynch , Brown and Bradshaw in the same team apart from utilities who played tall.

My preference is to play 2 rucks even with Hipwood, Daniher and McStay in the team. The later 3 whom anyone would consider on the agile side for big forwards.

I believe that will leave us exposed through the midfield, especially in the later part of games, as your bringing in a ruck at the expense of a mid rotation.

 

[lioninthesand]

I dont think we are slow side in general. I think we get beat on the rebound because our effort is not there. We need more defensive running from players who dont put in the effort. (mids and 1 small forward in particular) There are 3-4 of them that dont do it and I really hope that changes in 2022 because it will improve our game significantly. I do know its a focus of the coaching group. Watching a live game exposes these players because you can see them walking when the ball is not in our hands. Television doesnt pick that up.

Oh the TV picks it up - there is always a line of Maroon jumpers on the edge of screen having a nice old job and oppo stream forward haha

But nonetheless less, a 5 tall set up mid/forward would be at the expense of a smaller player who would be another link in the pressure/defense chain gone.

 

[Nunez]

I believe that will live us exposed through the midfield, especially in the later part of games, as your bringing in a ruck at the expense of a mid rotation.

Yeah there is precisely zero chance we go with three KPF and two rucks.

 

[POBT]

I feel like until the club says otherwise, we can assume Hippy's recovery will be 12 months between injury and return to senior footy. He did his knee on 10 July. Most years, that's round 16/17. I think we can put plans in place for his return to the side around then - that's the most likely scenario IMO.

Yes, the reports are that it wasn't a "good" ACL but neither has the club or anyone else said that the same recovery path won't apply. A "good" ACL injury sometimes allows a player to return earlier. But, unless there's a real setback, the stock standard recovery period is 12 months.

 

[POBT]

Yeah there is precisely zero chance we go with three KPF and two rucks.

I agree that it is unlikely. However, when I went looking, I was surprised that a couple of teams did use that structure. So it's not completely out of the question.

 

[Dalions]

If as a team, we are playing unbelievably well with Oscar, Fort McStay and Daniher. When Hippy is ready to come back it will be an extremely hard decision for the coaching staff to make as to whether we change the structure slightly by playing Daniher with Oscar in the Ruck and dropping Fort, or dropping McStay or Daniher for Hippy or leaving Hippy sidelined for a bit longer.
I doubt it will be the latter as I think they will give Hippy as long as possible before finals to get up to speed.
More than likely imo it will be Fort who is likely dropped and we trial Daniher back in the ruck for short periods and Oscar ups his minutes in there.
That combination worked very well this year until Hippy went down, so will likely be trialled again.
With Oscar getting less ruck minutes for the first half of the year he may be able to sustain his performance for a bit longer in the latter part of the year with Daniher as support.
There is also no Guarantee that Fort is a walk up start at the start of the year as others like Fullarton, Lane, Payne or Smith may come on quicker than expected during pre-season.

 

[mattsmob]

There is also no Guarantee that Fort is a walk up start at the start of the year as others like Fullarton, Lane, Payne or Smith may come on quicker than expected during pre-season.

Agree, in my mind it's between Fort, Fullarton and Lane to fill that third forward/ruck spot however I'm pretty certain they're just keeping the position warm for when Hipwood returns. The Big O ruck, Hipwood, Daniher, McStay key forward set up was deadly when it was available to us. Then add a fit Rayner and Cockatoo to go with Cameron, Linc, Bailey/Zorko and our foward line really isn't something we should be overthinking, that mix is the best in the comp and I don't think it's particularly close.

 

[mpal6]

If as a team, we are playing unbelievably well with Oscar, Fort McStay and Daniher. When Hippy is ready to come back it will be an extremely hard decision for the coaching staff to make as to whether we change the structure slightly by playing Daniher with Oscar in the Ruck and dropping Fort, or dropping McStay or Daniher for Hippy or leaving Hippy sidelined for a bit longer.
I doubt it will be the latter as I think they will give Hippy as long as possible before finals to get up to speed.
More than likely imo it will be Fort who is likely dropped and we trial Daniher back in the ruck for short periods and Oscar ups his minutes in there.
That combination worked very well this year until Hippy went down, so will likely be trialled again.
With Oscar getting less ruck minutes for the first half of the year he may be able to sustain his performance for a bit longer in the latter part of the year with Daniher as support.
There is also no Guarantee that Fort is a walk up start at the start of the year as others like Fullarton, Lane, Payne or Smith may come on quicker than expected during pre-season.

May not be a popular thought but I'd move Hipwood to defense. Build up his game time in 2s, run more straight lines for rest of the year and see if he can come in for backline. He's played defense in juniors and will be a genuine swing man for us.

 

[Dalions]

May not be a popular thought but I'd move Hipwood to defense. Build up his game time in 2s, run more straight lines for rest of the year and see if he can come in for backline. He's played defense in juniors and will be a genuine swing man for us.

I think he is more likely to be able to run straight lines as a forward rather than having to follow his direct opponent as a defender.
As a forward you decide your own running patterns. You don’t as a defender.

 

[martinson]

How do you know that?
What if he's back in July?

Well that'd be good wouldn't it. If he was ready.

What if he's not back at all ?

I'm simply extrapolating 12 months from when he went down and I think any sensible person would also take into account contingencies, match fitness and having a guess.

Is that not allowed or do you know precisely when he'll be back. For sure.

 

[martinson]

Going into this year it was already debated we were too tall without the 5th (second ruck). We are a slow side who gets ripped apart on the rebound. To play that 5th tall you would sacrifice a mid/winger. Personally, I think it would be simply untenable.

Take last years finals team, leave Fullerton in and add Fort to the line up whilst sacrificing a mid- would be the closet, relevant example to that line up. It would have been comical.

Fullarton isn't Hipwood or McStay.

 

[brutus76]

O'Meara is worth a go.

Would be awesome to see Lyons and Jaeger sticking it to the Suns next year.

 

[martinson]

The successful teams seem to have 2 rucks . Even one with a totally dominant ruck in Gawn.

McStay has the potential to play more of a utility role if need be.

I just don't see the point of ruling anything out.

There's a tendency to take our best case scenario months before the season even starts. Players lose form ,get injured, you often don't get to use your ideal structure or have the cattle to do it. We could've done with a competitive 2nd ruck in 2021. Who's to say next year will be any different. You need the best plan you can put together for all contingencies given there is a problem fitting all you want into a list these days.

 

[Lazza16]

Daly has said we are after Fort as a back up tap ruckman. He will get here I am sure. I dont understand why we are putting page after page discussing it?