List Mgmt. 2022 Trade & List Management Thread II

[giantroo]

Spoiler: Confirmed Trades

Spoiler: Draft Pick order

AFL Draft - AFL.com.au

Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information

www.afl.com.au

Spoiler: Key dates

AFL Trade Period Key Dates - AFL.com.au

When does Free Agency begin? How long does the Trade Period go for? Find out on AFL.com.au.

www.afl.com.au

Key Dates:

Friday 07 October at 5.00pm
Close of AFL Restricted Free Agency Offer and Unrestricted Free Agency Period.

Monday 10 October
NAB AFL Draft Nominations open (9am)
AFL Restricted Free Agency Matching Offer 3 Day Period Ends (5pm)

Wednesday 12 October at 7.30pm
AFL Trade Period closes – players and selections


Thursday 03 November at 9.00am
AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) commences

Wednesday 09 November at 5.00pm

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) closes

Friday 11 November at 9.00am

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) commences

Tuesday 15 November by 5.00pm

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) closes
AFL Trade Period closes – selections only

Monday 21 November by 3.00pm

NAB AFL Draft Nominations close

Monday 28 November at 7.10pm

2022 NAB AFL Draft Round One (Venue TBC)

Father/Son, Academy & NGA and Players Bidding opens.

Tuesday 29 November

AFL Trade Period – selections only (5.45pm to 6.30pm)

2022 NAB AFL National Draft Round two until completion (7pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period opens (10pm)

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3) commences (10pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period closes (11pm)

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3) closes (11pm)

Wednesday 30 November

NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft (3pm, online)
NAB AFL Rookie Draft (3.20pm, online)

Thursday 01 December by 4.00pm

Final AFL Club List Lodgement

 

[tiltraise]

Is pick 1 worth 3 + 12? And if it is why not just do the deal on its own and keep 12?

WC want 12 and we want something off them.

 

[JGreezy]

But it is it means JHF and Riolli are worth ports 8 this year and next years first rounder.

It’s ******* genius WE pay for our own player to end up at Poort by cracking this years number 1 pick!

We are not paying anything.

We started with George Wardlaw and we end up with George Wardlaw. And for that "move" we get Port's F1.

 

[Waynesworld]

Okay what do people think of this:

Port get: Rioli, JHF
Port lose: Pick 8, F1, Sinn

North get: pick 2, pick 3, F1 (Port), Sinn
North lose: JHF, pick 1, F3

WCE get: pick 12, pick 8, pick 18
WCE lose: Rioli, pick 2

GWS get pick 1, F3 (NM)
GWS lose pick 3, pick 12, pick 18

My only problem with it is essentially GWS are paying for Rioli and not Port who are still not losing enough. It's the best I could do.

No way WCE go for that.

Also Port have already said Sinn not on the table.

 

[Ashley B]

Port need to go back to the well and destabilise there young ,close knit it seems,playing list, otherwise it won’t get done. And it needs to be the cream of their young list. Good luck, tick tock.

 

[Kato]

Would we have traded out this years First rounder for something known of full well we could be bottom 4 again, I highly doubt it unless you’re using it for someone like JHF to come home.!
So why would WC trade it out when there is a distinct possibility they end up last next year and could split it then or get the best kid in the land next year.
Not like WC are targeting anyone that warrants a 1-4 pick this year that wants to go home.

Yeah the was on the premise of wc pick 2, I’m saying instead of that go wc F1


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[GS WARRIORS]

I don't care what Port are giving up.

I care what we are giving up and what we are getting.

Assuming that we were taking Wardlaw with pick 1 and we have JHF. We do this deal and we still have Wardlaw but also Sheezel, Port's F1 and sweetners.

We have traded JHF for Sheezel, Port's F1 and sweetners. I am happy with that.

And Port will have to give more to WC to get the deal done.

That's fine if we don't move down from 1 to 3. If we do, we get a return from Port or Port gets us 2 and F1 without our involvement.

 

[Roo202]

On day 1 Brady said p8 + f1st is not enough. Whether Port think that's unreasonable or not, that's how we value JHF. So:

p8 + f1st + x = JHF

Now maybe x = Sinn, or x = p27 (but they already traded it), or x = p2 - p8 (ie upgrade p8 to p2). Its likely x > Bonner.

The problem with all these multiclub trades is they all seem to start with the premise let's make x = 0.

So to do that somebody other than Port has to lose. Port wants Rioli - let's involve the Eagles and they can take unders for p2.

GWS are interested in p1 - let's get North to trade it for fair value, but then give away a substantial part of that value so WCE get value for p2.

Or there'll be an alternative where GWS pay overs for p1.

At the end of the day Port are going to have to add x themselves, because nobody else is going to take a haircut to send a first year contracted player to his club of choice.

Very well laid out and it all makes perfect sense, just not sure trigonometry is the best way to go about explaining it when the target audience is Port Adel and the AFL media!

 

[hoffseason gains]

a few people on North twitter talking Marshall apparently based on ‘mail’. anyone know anything? obviously not trying to get anyone’s hopes up as he’s a contracted South Australian, but just curious.

 

[The Nostradamus]

a few people on North twitter talking Marshall apparently based on ‘mail’. anyone know anything? obviously not trying to get anyone’s hopes up as he’s a contracted South Australian, but just curious.

Marshall is Victorian

 

[hoffseason gains]

Marshall is Victorian

Thanks mate, makes a bit more sense then

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

I've also heard Marshall would be the key to unlocking the trade from a couple of different people.

 

[BigRedRoo]

It is a bit like saying you are never going to compete against someone who wins Powerball with a 9-5 wage so you are better off getting on the dole and sinking that in Powerball tickets. There will likely be someone who becomes better, but it is a matter of probability, how many picks would you need to have a high confidence of hitting a better player? You aren't going to cover the spread with converting a pick 1 into lots of lesser picks.

Yes, pick 1 is rarely the best player in the draft pool, or doesn't work out that way, but you have to factor that player goes to the worst club and they are usually the worst club because they can't develop players.

Pick 1 isn't a guarantee of getting the best player, it is a risk averse pick where you go for a much higher probability of getting a good talent, the major problem is creating the right environment for that player to blossom. The first few years is critical in a player's development. Some can overcome significant setbacks, a lot can't.

I think that if you look at the Crows pitch for Pick 1 last year we were crazy not to take it and we should be looking to trade pick 1 for a similar deal this year.
Purely on numbers we turn two pick 1's into 6 First round picks. If you look at the history of the draft, it would seem that for first round picks, the odds of picks a star and about 1/3, 1/3 for a solid player and 1/3 for a dud or player that is screwed by injury. Just on numbers alone by increasing our picks from 2 to 6 we should see 2 stars, 2 first 18 workmen and 2 duds. This is how a list is rebuilt quickly which is where we need to go to become competitive. When you only have two picks is a lot of eggs in the one basket and as Melbourne found out can backfire setting you back a couple of years in a rebuild.

 

[HEYTRUEROO]

On day 1 Brady said p8 + f1st is not enough. Whether Port think that's unreasonable or not, that's how we value JHF. So:

p8 + f1st + x = JHF

Now maybe x = Sinn, or x = p27 (but they already traded it), or x = p2 - p8 (ie upgrade p8 to p2). Its likely x > Bonner.

The problem with all these multiclub trades is they all seem to start with the premise let's make x = 0.

So to do that somebody other than Port has to lose. Port wants Rioli - let's involve the Eagles and they can take unders for p2.

GWS are interested in p1 - let's get North to trade it for fair value, but then give away a substantial part of that value so WCE get value for p2.

Or there'll be an alternative where GWS pay overs for p1.

At the end of the day Port are going to have to add x themselves, because nobody else is going to take a haircut to send a first year contracted player to his club of choice.

I like to think that this ^ was the reason I leant algebra in high school.

 

[buttox]

a few people on North twitter talking Marshall apparently based on ‘mail’. anyone know anything? obviously not trying to get anyone’s hopes up as he’s a contracted South Australian, but just curious.

Nice player.
That would break the deadlock.

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

Nice player.
That would break the deadlock.

Marshall was the obvious PA name from the get go - now it gets interesting.

 

[Rooboy 96]

We are not paying anything.

We started with George Wardlaw and we end up with George Wardlaw. And for that "move" we get Port's F1.

Seriously Brades just let Viney and Clarko look after this.


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[shimaburnsgrieg]

Marshall is Victorian

Early life[edit]​

Marshall grew up in Deniliquin, New South Wales. As a teenager he was a talented cricket player, touring England with NSW youth teams. He made the decision to focus on football at a relatively late age, playing his first full TAC Cup season with the Murray Bushrangers in 2016. Marshall also represented NSW/ACT at the 2016 AFL Under 18 Championships.[1][2] He fell into Greater Western Sydney Giants' recruitment zone in the Riverina and was briefly part of its academy, but in May 2016 the AFL ruled that Marshall had not spent enough time at the club and thus would have to go through the normal draft process rather than going straight to GWS as an academy player.[3][4]

AFL career[edit]​

Marshall was drafted by Port Adelaide with their first selection and sixteenth overall in the 2016 national draft.[5] He made his debut in the seventeen-point win over the Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium in round twenty-two of the 2017 season.[6] Todd Marshall was good friends with Patrick Ryder during his tenure at Port Adelaide and when the latter was traded to St Kilda at the end of the 2019 AFL season the former changed his guernsey number from 13 to 4.[7]

The 2022 season proved to be Marshall's best yet, playing in 21 of 22 games and kicking a career high 45 goals to be Port Adelaide's leading goalkicker.

Personal life[edit]​

Marshall lost both of his parents within six months at the age of 19.[8]

 

[buttox]

Marshall was the obvious PA name from the get go - now it gets interesting.

We would not get much with him as far as draft picks goes.
It would make trading pick 1 more palatable as we would need cadman far less.

 

[GS WARRIORS]

If you had the choice between Marshall or Sinn (or Bergman if you like), who would you take?

 

[The Nostradamus]

If you had the choice between Marshall or Sinn (or Bergman if you like), who would you take?

Sinn

 

[Sillygit]

Unless they throw in a player WCE wants.

which so far they've givem no indication they will, and my prediction is they won't

 

[GS WARRIORS]

Sinn

Me too but I don't watch much Port. Don't know how good Marshall is.

 

[Tas]

I think that if you look at the Crows pitch for Pick 1 last year we were crazy not to take it and we should be looking to trade pick 1 for a similar deal this year.
Purely on numbers we turn two pick 1's into 6 First round picks. If you look at the history of the draft, it would seem that for first round picks, the odds of picks a star and about 1/3, 1/3 for a solid player and 1/3 for a dud or player that is screwed by injury. Just on numbers alone by increasing our picks from 2 to 6 we should see 2 stars, 2 first 18 workmen and 2 duds. This is how a list is rebuilt quickly which is where we need to go to become competitive. When you only have two picks is a lot of eggs in the one basket and as Melbourne found out can backfire setting you back a couple of years in a rebuild.

With the benefit of hindsight, sure. If JHF was to become Martin-like in that you could build a multiple flag winning team around and we traded him for a couple of solid players we would have copped it like Richmond did passing on Franklin for Tambling.

It is hard to try and predict the future, he didn't give an indication that he would do a runner and we couldn't have foreseen the cluster**** that was 2022 given 2021 ended with positive vibes.

Given we came out of a time period where we did okay for solid players but struggled to produce or attract guns, I can understand why we made the decision we did. The problem was the club wasn't where it should have been off-field and has caused significant problems, too many inexperienced people in too many roles, a lack of quality football department personnel.

Hopefully Clarkson+Viney start to improve the football department and we can extract the most out of the talent we bring in. We have to try and salvage the JHF scenario as best we can.

 

[Rooboy 96]

We would not get much with him as far as draft picks goes.
It would make trading pick 1 more palatable as we would need cadman far less.

I like Marshall, but will still need some draft picks, I am a firm believer that JHF has the potential to be the next generational player, ie Carey or GAJ, not the same player obviously, but the same impact. We are not seeing the same performances from anyone in this draft bar the guy going to Brisbane as a F/S

Marshall 8 and Future 1st (Tied to WC)
Or
Marshall 2 and Future 2nd
Or
Marshall and WC ant Ports future 1sts

And I don’t give a flying thuck how Port get this to work, happy to keep JHF as we are disgruntled sellers


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[The Filth Wizard]

Either or. They’re both young, good prospects and fill a need.