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Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

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Crow till I die said:
www.foxsports.com.au

Crows keen to move up as Dons, Cats ponder shuffles down order: when first-round bids could come: AFL Draft Watch

Star could spark Dons trade as Crows eye bold move; ‘bid frenzy’ looms: Draft Watch
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au

Foxfooty.com.au understands Adelaide, which holds Picks 10, 14 and 20, remains keen to move up the draft order and would be a club well best placed to deal with Essendon. Adelaide is keen to turn its three top-20 picks into two at the top-end of the draft.

The Crows have been club linked to 198cm key defender Connor O’Sullivan, consistent 186cm winger Darcy Wilson and even 185cm utility Harry DeMattia with their current three picks, but moving up the order could help them land the likes of 193cm forward Nate Caddy, high-flying 188cm defender James Leake and speedy 184cm winger Caleb Windsor, should any of them still be on the table.

But should the Bombers hold their pick, they’re expected to consider the likes of O’Sullivan and Caddy, as well as possible top-10 bolters Leake and Windsor, with Hardeman unlikely to be taken that early.

And should the Crows hold Picks 10 and 14, they could still put Pick 20 on the table.


Adelaide has also shown interest in local product Taylor Goad – an athletic 206cm ruck who’s “got a midfield mindset in a Max Gawn body”, according to SA Under 18s coach Tony Bamford. Goad, according to sources, has ample first-round interest from clubs.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't be against taking a ruck like Goad this year knowing we could bring him along slowly. ROB is contracted for 2 more years, but better to get cover now knowing they make a year or two to physically develop, rather than rush around trying to find a replacement and have to settle for whatever you can get.
 
Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:
  • 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
  • 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
  • 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of these was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stefan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.
But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:
1699930019748.png

The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:
1699930051267.png
Key takeaways:
  • If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
  • It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
  • Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
  • Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
  • Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.
So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?
 
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My take is:

Adelaide will offer Geelong 14 and 20 if O'Sullivan is available, then take COS and Wilson with 8 and 10 if they can do a deal.

If COS is gone, we probably won't trade and instead, Sydney will look at pick 14 and North's future first priority pick for the same.
 
FoxFooty has been reading Big Footy again .....it's eerily too close to our discussions

Trading up so we can get Caleb Windsor .....WOW

Foxfooty.com.au understands Adelaide, which holds Picks 10, 14 and 20, remains keen to move up the draft order and would be a club well best placed to deal with Essendon. Adelaide is keen to turn its three top-20 picks into two at the top-end of the draft.

The Crows have been club linked to 198cm key defender Connor O’Sullivan, consistent 186cm winger Darcy Wilson and even 185cm utility Harry DeMattia with their current three picks, but moving up the order could help them land the likes of 193cm forward Nate Caddy, high-flying 188cm defender James Leake and speedy 184cm winger Caleb Windsor, should any of them still be on the table.

But should the Bombers hold their pick, they’re expected to consider the likes of O’Sullivan and Caddy, as well as possible top-10 bolters Leake and Windsor, with Hardeman unlikely to be taken that early.

And should the Crows hold Picks 10 and 14, they could still put Pick 20 on the table.

Adelaide has also shown interest in local product Taylor Goad – an athletic 206cm ruck who’s “got a midfield mindset in a Max Gawn body”, according to SA Under 18s coach Tony Bamford. Goad, according to sources, has ample first-round interest from clubs.
 
OTHER DRAFT WHISPERS

Powerful Subiaco prospect Koltyn Tholstrup is widely expected to be taken in the first round, with Melbourne considering taking him with its second first-rounder. Sydney, St Kilda and Collingwood have also been linked to Tholstrup, who was invited to the first night of the draft in Melbourne but will instead remain in WA where he’ll watch the event with family and friends.

Glenelg forward Ashton Moir also continues to be linked to the Eagles.

www.foxsports.com.au

Crows keen to move up as Dons, Cats ponder shuffles down order: when first-round bids could come: AFL Draft Watch

Star could spark Dons trade as Crows eye bold move; ‘bid frenzy’ looms: Draft Watch
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au
 
Big Dub said:
Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:
  • 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
  • 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
  • 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of these was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stefan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.
But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:
View attachment 1852393

The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:
View attachment 1852394
Key takeaways:
  • If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
  • It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
  • Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
  • Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
  • Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.
So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?
Click to expand...
Great summary, thanks for posting this.
 
Big Dub said:
Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:
  • 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
  • 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
  • 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of these was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stefan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.
But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:
View attachment 1852393

The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:
View attachment 1852394
Key takeaways:
  • If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
  • It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
  • Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
  • Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
  • Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
  • Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.
So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?
Click to expand...
Great work. This should put the argument to bed once and for all.

A few key takeouts, those that suggest to let them develop elsewhere and we can pick up a good one, well this theory isn’t supported by the data at all, in fact it’s the worst strategy we could employ.

Given the success of drafting a ruck, it’s mind blowing that we haven’t drafted one.

Our last pick looks to be in the sweet spot with some good options this year.

Send it to Reid and Ogilvie, they might learn something and you might get a new job out of it.
 
George Kramer said:
Great work. This should put the argument to bed once and for all.

A few key takeouts, those that suggest to let them develop elsewhere and we can pick up a good one, well this theory isn’t supported by the data at all, in fact it’s the worst strategy we could employ.

Given the success of drafting a ruck, it’s mind blowing that we haven’t drafted one.

Our last pick looks to be in the sweet spot with some good options this year.

Send it to Reid and Ogilvie, they might learn something and you might get a new job out of it.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately statistics only play a part. A lot has to go right.
 
If we pick o'sullivan or leake with our first pick I'm going to become completely disinterested in the afl. I'm not saying they aren't good players but I'm done with this club ignoring the midfield. It's complete flipping trash. When we come up against good sides like gws we get completely flipping obliterated.

and the happy clappers are like.

this-is.gif

It's the exact reason mattymac was done with this club. Enough is enough.
 
Last edited:
Harry Potter Idiot GIF
 

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Brett Cummings said:
If we pick o'sullivan or leake with our first pick I'm going to become completely disinterested in the afl. I'm not saying they aren't good players but I'm done with this club ignoring the midfield. It's complete *ing trash. When we come up against good sides like gws we get completely *ing obliterated.

It's the exact reason mattymac was done with this club. Enough is enough.
Click to expand...
You really don't back the natural development of Pedler and Soligo who look to have the goods as quick and skillful midfielders. O'Sullivan fills a need of solid upcoming tall talent and Leake probably provides a nice piece who can probably fill the gap left by McAdam going forward. But more importantly they are the best players at that point of the draft.

You take the most talented players in the first round, doesn't matter which position they play. Teams that don't do this end up with serviceable role players without any elite level talent.
 
Brett Cummings said:
If we pick o'sullivan or leake with our first pick I'm going to become completely disinterested in the afl. I'm not saying they aren't good players but I'm done with this club ignoring the midfield. It's complete *ing trash. When we come up against good sides like gws we get completely *ing obliterated.

and the happy clappers are like.

View attachment 1852502

It's the exact reason mattymac was done with this club. Enough is enough.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, but who would you suggest?
 
grundog49 said:
You really don't back the natural development of Pedler and Soligo who look to have the goods as quick and skillful midfielders. O'Sullivan fills a need of solid upcoming tall talent and Leake probably provides a nice piece who can probably fill the gap left by McAdam going forward. But more importantly they are the best players at that point of the draft.

You take the most talented players in the first round, doesn't matter which position they play. Teams that don't do this end up with serviceable role players without any elite level talent.
Click to expand...
What're you talking about?!
As Brett says, we should throw away a pick 10 on a serviceable midfielder THIS year when there's a potential A grade KPD on offer, and instead next year plug that gap with a sub par option.
 
Brett Cummings said:
If we pick o'sullivan or leake with our first pick I'm going to become completely disinterested in the afl. I'm not saying they aren't good players but I'm done with this club ignoring the midfield. It's complete *ing trash. When we come up against good sides like gws we get completely *ing obliterated.

and the happy clappers are like.

View attachment 1852502

It's the exact reason mattymac was done with this club. Enough is enough.
Click to expand...
If we have a plan to trade up on draft night using 14 & 20 to nab 8 or 9 or maybe even 7 from GWS and we went O'Sullivan and Wilson...where do we sign as far as I am concerned.

If we only have 10 and take O'Sullivan or Leake (assuming Wilson is also still there), I will be praying we have a deal in place to flip one of our other 1sts into next year to hopefully make a play to trade up to get a topline mid in what is supposed to be a mid heavy draft
 
1990crow said:
What're you talking about?!
As Brett says, we should throw away a pick 10 on a serviceable midfielder THIS year when there's a potential A grade KPD on offer, and instead next year plug that gap with a sub par option.
Click to expand...
We have read that book before with a top 10 pick quite recently and it didn't turn out too great. I'd be wary as hell if we don't have serious plans on also improving our midfield next year
 
1990crow said:
What're you talking about?!
As Brett says, we should throw away a pick 10 on a serviceable midfielder THIS year when there's a potential A grade KPD on offer, and instead next year plug that gap with a sub par option.
Click to expand...
Yeah wilson is just a "serviceable" midfielder. Both him and windsor could be gone before o'sullivan but ok mate.
 

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Crow till I die said:
We have read that book before with a top 10 pick quite recently and it didn't turn out too great. I'd be wary as hell if we don't have serious plans on also improving our midfield next year
Click to expand...
I fully expect next year for us to target someone with cash we had set aside for a player like Oliver.
Petty would be secondary target.
Hayward third.
 
Brett Cummings said:
If we pick o'sullivan or leake with our first pick I'm going to become completely disinterested in the afl. I'm not saying they aren't good players but I'm done with this club ignoring the midfield. It's complete *ing trash. When we come up against good sides like gws we get completely *ing obliterated.

and the happy clappers are like.

View attachment 1852502

It's the exact reason mattymac was done with this club. Enough is enough.
Click to expand...
Yeah why would we pick gun players

Let’s just pick mediocre players that fill a need so they can play with Sam Berry in the 2s
 
Jeffcrowe said:
Yeah why would we pick gun players

Let’s just pick mediocre players that fill a need so they can play with Sam Berry in the 2s
Click to expand...
We have a shit tonne of failed smaller players since 2016.

Plus who's to say we aren't getting OSullivan and Wilson?
There's no A grade midfield talent outside of that.
Windsor probably next best but he's unlikely to get a game in our midfield for 4 or 5 years even if he came on.
 
Brett Cummings said:
Wilson is mediocre? The happy clappers have arrived.
Click to expand...
I’m a big wilson fan

O’Sullivan and him are the 2 I want as they’re the 2 best players with Leake

Leake next - reminds me of Tom Stewart and could play back , forward and midfield . More a midfielder type than Dawson was at 18 yo

Windsor I have more late teens , he’s classy but it’s all outside the contest which is a risk early , just not sure he’d get the ball enough at afl level . Maybe plays half back like Wayne Milera
 
1990crow said:
We have a s**t tonne of failed smaller players since 2016.

Plus who's to say we aren't getting OSullivan and Wilson?
There's no A grade midfield talent outside of that.
Windsor probably next best but he's unlikely to get a game in our midfield for 4 or 5 years even if he came on.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure we’d have O’Sullivan and Wilson high on our list ( with Leake )

That’s what I hope anyway
 

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