Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

[Big Dub]

It could also be as simple as 10 for 23 and F2 which on points and expected finishing position is a good deal for you and would help for Welsh points next year. Hopefully it’s not 10,F1 for F1…

That one doesn't get done. Not trading out 10 just for points.

 

[119others]

So this talk of west coast eagles/adelaide trade is based on Dan Curtin falling towards our first pick? Is so I would be tempted just to take Curtin ourselves.

Don’t think any realistic scenario of ANY phantom draft has Curtin lasting until 10th available pick. very likely top 5-6 available picks, otherwise we would just take a massive slider IMO

 

[119others]

Mate. I’m not suggesting we’d specifically offer that deal or that you’d accept it, the point I’m making is it could be complex with a lot of picks or simple with not many. I actually agree with most of the posters in here that given it will be on draft night, unfortunately Crows will have the leverage and 10 with a swap of F1s is the most likely if a deal is done. I was hoping a deal would have been done in the last week similar to the one that was accepted almost immediately by your colleague which would have not leveraged either team.

The “whispers” you are hearing is it based on anything concrete or just normal BF rumour crap?

Our pick ranges of 10 and 14 would be very tempting for Weagles with WA lads seemingly going in the teens. And I don’t think Kangas should or will offer 2 and 3 for Reid, and no other deal is likely see you offload pick one at this stage. to give up pick one let’s face facts you need pick 2 (maybe 3) coming back in. Only Kangas can offer this. Perhaps they offer pick 2 and F1 for Reid but still unlikely IMO

 

[eaglevision]

Seems like my post about 10 for 23 and F2 has ruffled some feathers. Just to be clear it was an example of a simple pick swap, it wasn’t intended to be put forward as an actual trade suggestion but can see how it reads as such so apologies.

In summary:
If Curtin is available at 10 and we haven’t done a deal with Melbourne or GWS, I agree the most likely deal is 10 and F1 for our F1 given your leverage, I’m just not sure we’d accept it.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I’d still be incredibly surprised if Curtin made it to our pick, so I doubt such a deal happens

 

[Crow till I die]

I

Geez you must see something in our list that no one else does!

I Wouldn't be doing that with pick 10. The deal that might fly is pick 10 on the night and then a swap of 2024 1sts..think the carlton deal

 

[1990crow]

It would centre around pick 10 and our F1. Based on the ladder positions end of this year 10,14,20,F1(9) for 23,58,F1(1),F2(19) is about as fair as it gets based on points (not the be all and end all just a guide) and I think fills a need for both clubs and would at least be a starting point for discussions.

View attachment 1850260

Ew.

 

[eaglevision]

The “whispers” you are hearing is it based on anything concrete or just normal BF rumour crap?

Our pick ranges of 10 and 14 would be very tempting for Weagles with WA lads seemingly going in the teens. And I don’t think Kangas should or will offer 2 and 3 for Reid, and no other deal is likely see you offload pick one at this stage. to give up pick one let’s face facts you need pick 2 (maybe 3) coming back in. Only Kangas can offer this. Perhaps they offer pick 2 and F1 for Reid but still unlikely IMO

Not sure where our pick 1 (Reid) comes into it mate? We’re talking about F1.

 

[dogs105]

Not sure where our pick 1 (Reid) comes into it mate? We’re talking about F1.

You are too certain that your future pick will be pick 1. You can't propose a "fair" deal based on that expectation. There is only downside risk.

 

[1990crow]

You are too certain that your future pick will be pick 1. You can't propose a "fair" deal based on that expectation. There is only downside risk.

Yep. Every chance WC rise to be 13th or 14th. That's the value you have to put to it, you can't trade it with the expectation it ends up pick 1. There's too much risk.

IF Curtin got to Pick 10 (I don't think he will):

Crows trade: 10, F1 (11)
WC trade: F1 (4) , 37

 

[eaglevision]

You are too certain that your future pick will be pick 1. You can't propose a "fair" deal based on that expectation. There is only downside risk.

Absolutely agree Crows are assuming more risk. At the end of the day if our club rates Curtin 3-5 in the draft and he gets to 10, I’m pretty sure the deal of 10,F1 for F1 would get done if Crows were willing. That’s my own opinion and not necessarily that of WCE and other posters.

 

[119others]

Not sure where our pick 1 (Reid) comes into it mate? We’re talking about F1.

Ok poorly explained by myself - fair enough. I imagine West Coast wants/needs more than one super talented youngster this year (Reid). 10 and 14 gives you 2 more talented players in the next category down from the elite bunch which I imagine would be tempting as a few WA lads in that likely range. I mentioned Reid (unnecessarily in hindsight) just re how do you best leverage this draft

the main query I really had though is these “whispers” you have been hearing for weeks? Are they from a credible source? Have you received ”good intel” previously?

I agree our picks 10 and 14 would be tempting and imagine there is capacity for some serious dialogue between our clubs knowing we very likely want Draper next year

 

[1990crow]

Absolutely agree Crows are assuming more risk. At the end of the day if our club rates Curtin 3-5 in the draft and he gets to 10, I’m pretty sure the deal of 10,F1 for F1 would get done if Crows were willing. That’s my own opinion and not necessarily that of WCE and other posters.

It really couldn't be any other way. Too much risk for Crows to throw in 14, 20 etc.

 

[119others]

You are too certain that your future pick will be pick 1. You can't propose a "fair" deal based on that expectation. There is only downside risk.

All future pick trading involves forecasting. It’s the inherent risk. Historically we have performed very well in this regard.

Kangas and Weagles are equal spoon faves and let’s face facts they are VERY likely to be bottom 3 in 2024

 

[1990crow]

All future pick trading involves forecasting. It’s the inherent risk. Historically we have performed very well in this regard.

Kangas and Weagles are equal spoon faves and let’s face facts they are VERY likely to be bottom 3 in 2024

That's WC risk to take though if they want Curtin.

 

[119others]

That's WC risk to take though if they want Curtin.

It’s not possible for us (or any team) to trade for another teams F1 without taking on forecasting risk. This is an obvious point. It’s why some investors can forecast well and buy stocks that go up 10x and others blow up their money. The smarter you are at the game of forecasting the more you have to gain. Crows have historically forecasted well including this year getting second round picks from teams that finished 15th and 17th

 

[Amacca 23]

Yep and we're worse for it imho

Paul seedsman ring a bell ? Or did he play something else ?

On SM-G996B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[George CantStandYa]

Paul seedsman ring a bell ? Or did he play something else ?

On SM-G996B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Gees you’re clutching, Seeds was our wingman when Nicks took over.

Hately, Crouch, Sloane ring a bell? All have played wing under Nicks

 

[1990crow]

It’s not possible for us (or any team) to trade for another teams F1 without taking on forecasting risk. This is an obvious point. It’s why some investors can forecast well and buy stocks that go up 10x and others blow up their money. The smarter you are at the game of forecasting the more you have to gain. Crows have historically forecasted well including this year getting second round picks from teams that finished 15th and 17th

Skipping over the fact the other party is driving the trade.

 

[eaglevision]

Skipping over the fact the other party is driving the trade.

I think you’ll find that the Crows are very keen to get as high up the draft as they can next year and I suspect you’ll play less to do it this year than you will next year. I don’t think it will be a trade where either club is looking to screw the other, I think it might just suit mutual interests.

 

[1990crow]

I think you’ll find that the Crows are very keen to get as high up the draft as they can next year and I suspect you’ll play less to do it this year than you will next year. I don’t think it will be a trade where either club is looking to screw the other, I think it might just suit mutual interests.

My proposed trade isn't screwing WC.
With less injuries next year you'd expect to finish higher.

 

[eaglevision]

Ok poorly explained by myself - fair enough. I imagine West Coast wants/needs more than one super talented youngster this year (Reid). 10 and 14 gives you 2 more talented players in the next category down from the elite bunch which I imagine would be tempting as a few WA lads in that likely range. I mentioned Reid (unnecessarily in hindsight) just re how do you best leverage this draft

the main query I really had though is these “whispers” you have been hearing for weeks? Are they from a credible source? Have you received ”good intel” previously?

I agree our picks 10 and 14 would be tempting and imagine there is capacity for some serious dialogue between our clubs knowing we very likely want Draper next year

I’m happy enough to post that there’s a good chance we’ll be on the line to each other yes. Obviously things can change. If it was Curtin specifically Freo might package up their 3 F1s for 6 and some change to Dees or GWS for example, or a club may change the order they rank the players. It may also just be that we want to get up the order in general this year and our F1 is our only currency we have without trading pick 1.

 

[Mostyn]

Picks 10, 14 and F1(12) is unders for a top 2 pick (probably pick 1) and F2(19). 20 for 23 and 58 is whatever. Take Goad and then let Hamish loose on a late pick.

We have enough depth players, we now need guns. Which you get with really top end picks, which the Weagles first pick next year will be. Probably a gun centre square mid.

Pick 1 will also likely impact at AFL at least as quick as any 12 to 26 pick we take this year.

What if Hawthorn have a crap year, Richmond self destruct and North stay rubbish?

West Coast could end up with pick 5, not pick 1. And we might be pick 8 or so, so we've given away three firsts for a tiny upgrade and a second round pick.

We're not finished rebuilding yet and we can't start treating picks like we're Gold Coast.

 

[eaglevision]

My proposed trade isn't screwing WC.
With less injuries next year you'd expect to finish higher.

It’s possible we would rise yes, but if you were betting your house on what ladder position WCE finish in next year what’s your bet? That’s all you can go on when trading future picks. Suggesting your risk should be zero isn’t realistic.

 

[Mostyn]

. Also gets quality kids in now, which they need.

So do we!