Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread

[a mayes ing]

I don't know much about your list and who is coming up, but you need some KPD help. Gardner and the third tall back you play aren't good IMO. Too immobile with Andrews

I agree that we do need some KPP's in general, however we still have Andrews. I don't know who the "third tall back" you are referring to, is it Payne? We are developing him to take over the gorillas, he is going okay atm. We have Adams who will be back next year who was in AA form before he contracted Covid. Gardiner has had some serious form issues coupled with injuries. So we stiill have Adams, Andrews and Payne as our key backs, as well as Gardiner who is good depth. I would stay that is a few decent KPD's.
The major issue was the midfield which Dunkley and Ashcroft will help

 

[Arr0w]

Bit early to nail down without list changes, but think Crows will surprise, sneaky chance to make the 8

 

[BringFevBack2021]

Interesting that so many expect a down year for Coll and don’t realize “process” and not “luck” was the reason for success in 2022.
Pure luck can’t explain such a long winning streak.

Have to be top 8, more likely top 6 or top 4.

I’ll be shocked if they miss the eight.

 

[AjsGuns]

Absolute speculation, but my top 2 are Melbourne and Brisbane.

Melb would be favs for mine.
Petracca, Oliver & Gawn in the middle is a huge tick, with Lever & May down back. Dissapointing 2022, will be hungry for success in 2023. Better list than Geelong & Sydney on paper IMO.

I like Brisbane too, Dunkley will be a huge in and their strong on every line (Andrews down back, Neale, Dunkley & Clug in the midfield and Cameron, Daniher, Hippy up forward), however, don't trust them to get it done in September at the G.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Melbourne
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong
Carlton
Fremantle
GWS
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
StKilda
West Coast
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawthorn
North Melbourne

 

[TheBigHorne]

1. North Melbourne
2-18. The rest of the shitty irrelevant teams in the competition

 

[fridgeman]

I won’t speculate on other teams but Giants to be Bottom 4 again with the team needing to learn a new game plan (not that they had much of a plan the last few years) and also getting games into the young players and as many players as possible to build depth
Range would be 12-16th

 

[HTPunter]

makes perfect sense

Who would have had Geelong over Melbourne in 2022 after the 2021 prelim...

 

[HTPunter]

1. North Melbourne
2-18. The rest of the shitty irrelevant teams in the competition

Give credit where it's due, Daylight is building a super list

1. North Melbourne
2. Daylight
3-19. Shitty irrelevant teams

 

[Jen2310]

True, but generally games decided by small margins do have an element of luck, a bounce of the ball, a bad umpire's call, a few moments here or there. There's also something called regression to the mean, "the idea that rare or extreme events are likely to be followed by more typical ones." - basically, all those close games that could have gone either way that they won the majority of (extreme event), a few moments go the other team's way and they lose a few of them (more typical event) and drop a little.

They could certainly improve again in 2023, but with a likely harder draw coming for them, it wouldn't surprise if they miss the top 4. Remember from outside this year's top 4, teams like Brisbane, Freo, Carlton, Richmond are all going to be looking to improve strongly and contend for top 4, not to mention smokies outside the 8 like Gold Coast, Port Adelaide who history shows some sort of bottom team makes a big jump every year.

I do agree we'll need to improve, because the run we went on all those close wins isn't sustainable. Could have easily been on the other side of them. But a second year with this new game plan and coaches, improvement you'd imagine would be a focus.

 

[HTPunter]

I won’t speculate on other teams but Giants to be Bottom 4 again with the team needing to learn a new game plan (not that they had much of a plan the last few years) and also getting games into the young players and as many players as possible to build depth
Range would be 12-16th

I think this is a good call. I'll be surprised if GWS don't experiment with giving the likes of Callaghan, this year's first rounders and Ash full games in the midfield, and move out Coniglio, Kelly etc at times. Davis might get carried to 200 but afterwards it'll be Aleer getting games. hey'll experiment with the forward line make up, Hogan and Greene are here to stay but Riccardi will get more experimental time.

Overall too much senior quality to compete with North and Eagles for the spoon but I see it as a "what am I working with" year incoming for Kingsley. Combo of which senior players are needed for leadership and role playing roles, and which young kids are taking me forward.

 

[HTPunter]

I do agree we'll need to improve, because the run we went on all those close wins isn't sustainable. Could have easily been on the other side of them. But a second year with this new game plan and coaches, improvement you'd imagine would be a focus.

And it's not linear anyway, improvement might be made in the development of the future while some senior players step back and the win loss column gets worse. See Geelong 2021 getting Holmes, Close into the side and Atkins away from the forward line, which didn't help in 2021 but sure did in 2022.

 

[HTPunter]

I'm going with a Melbourne v Richmond grand final early days.

Think Richmond reinvent themselves again, they were a bizarre minute of series of unfortunate events away from a semi final without really ever firing this year. They're adding Hopper and Taranto, Dusty back for a better year is bigger than those 2 anyway, and Lynch just needs a good run with injury to not be the Big Dick forward of the comp.

Melbourne had to Me far too much arrogance this year and spent way too much time celebrating in their opponents faces. Thought they were king shit because at the end of 2021, they were. After reality hit them square between the eyes in a double whammy (straight sets exit and then the 2 sides that beat them being thumped by the eventual premier) I expect the list and coaching staff to regroup. They are also the most selfish team in the comp, Fritsch and Pickett known for burning teammates in better positions, and I believe sacrifice for teammates will be emphasized in the off season and they'll come back better for it. They've got too much quality, it's all between the ears for them and a summer is an eternity to fix it.

 

[bomberlegend2007]

My bold prediction is that the all of the Big 4 (Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon) will play finals.

 

[gouki88]

My bold prediction is that the all of the Big 4 (Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon) will play finals.

When did this last happen?

 

[bomberlegend2007]

When did this last happen?

I don’t think it ever has. Closest maybe 2001?

 

[gouki88]

I don’t think it ever has. Closest maybe 2001?

2013 was close but obviously didn't happen. Would be cool

 

[HTPunter]

1. Melbourne (premiers)
2. Geelong
3. Richmond (runner up)
4. Carlton - bolter for the year. I don't think they'll have the defensive structure in place to stop teams getting a run on in finals but predicting a kind draw and a solid H&A season. Small upgrades around the ground get them to 14-15 wins.
5. Collingwood - be better for the year, can't see them getting the same luck in close games but tend to agree it's also partly their system so they'll still win more than they lose, the truth is never 100% either way in footy - although they can't continue to rely on basic errors from cellar dweller teams (North, Essendon) to beat them In close games again when it's fingertip stuff
6. Brisbane - not convinced Dunkley fixes the midfield issues, considering speed is a huge concern. They've got a poorly competitive key post line up - can beat up on their day but no fight, no desperation. McStay out helps as he is mentally weak and often doesn't follow up but Daniher, Andrews, Hipwood aren't much better.
McCluggage to step up as the number 1 midfielder
7. Sydney - hard to recover from a huge loss, as seen GWS 2019 Dogs 2020 Crows 2017 Swans 2014 etc. Even Eagles 2015 and Swans 2014 sides couldn't win a final the following year. Swans won't have it in them to finish top 4.
8. Gold Coast - time is now. I think they've got enough system in place to be competitive, they are definitely building and letting Bowes and Sexton and Fiorini go won't hurt them

9. Fremantle - someone has to drop out, not convinced Jackson fixes the depth issues that are likely to be created. Tipping Lobb will exit after all
10. Adelaide - they're going to have a sick forward line, if it gets down enough they could kick 20 goals some games, but the midfield is a fair way off it. Still enough to beat the sides listed below
11. Western Bulldogs - they just seem to be middling to me? 5th to 11th. Bevo often appears to be coaching on passion and motivation. If they land Lobb maybe that will be just enough to give them the structure to bounce up.
12. Hawthorn - trading out senior players and giving them lesser roles normally results in a worse year, but Mitchell, O'Meara, Hartigan reduced roles or gone helps the team first system that Sam Mitchell will get going
13. Essendon - probably be bottom 2 midway through the season and then lift again. If Hird comes back it'll give them the opposite - early season momentum before being found out
14. St Kilda - penny dropping that they have to clear out overpriced deadwood/players who have plataeued. Will be better for it in the long run
15. Port Adelaide - it's Connor Rozees time but he can't do it all just yet. Not convinced Dixon, Boak and Jonas can do it for much longer
16. GWS - list inspection year. See above - Callaghan, Ash, Aleer all to be given important time
17. North Melbourne - enough B graders coming in I'd hope to get off the canvas and get 5 wins for the year..
18. West Coast - another rebuild year. Yeo, Shuey, McGovern, Hurn, Naitanui aren't getting fitter, Gaff not getting better, JK gone. Think they should stick fat to the plan and the coach but doesn't mean there won't be tough times

 

[HaroLad]

Who would have had Geelong over Melbourne in 2022 after the 2021 prelim...

Me. Melbourne were never that good and only won because our team got sick.

 

[The Prosecutor]

1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. Sydney
6. Richmond
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Fremantle

9.Collingwood
10. Essendon
11. Gold Coast
12. St Kilda
13. Port Adelaide
14. Adelaide
15. GWS
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast

 

[JasRulz63]

I don't know much about your list and who is coming up, but you need some KPD help. Gardner and the third tall back you play aren't good IMO. Too immobile with Andrews

I think our KPD players will look better with Dunkley (and hopefully Robertson) in the midfield actually providing semblance of defensive midfield pressure. A big reason why our defense struggled this year was the lack of any real pressure on the ball up the ground leading to quick and easy entries for the opposition.

I think we're quite reliant on Adams being able to come back and playing a decent number of games, which given his history is thwart with danger. I like Payne as a young KPD option though, he's deceptively quick despite his size and only 22-23.

 

[blueiris]

Absolute speculation, but my top 2 are Melbourne and Brisbane.

Melb would be favs for mine.
Petracca, Oliver & Gawn in the middle is a huge tick, with Lever & May down back. Dissapointing 2022, will be hungry for success in 2023. Better list than Geelong & Sydney on paper IMO.

I like Brisbane too, Dunkley will be a huge in and their strong on every line (Andrews down back, Neale, Dunkley & Clug in the midfield and Cameron, Daniher, Hippy up forward), however, don't trust them to get it done in September at the G.

Yet they beat the Dees at the G this year but ran into a red hot Geelong unfortunately

 

[Defabs]

True, but generally games decided by small margins do have an element of luck, a bounce of the ball, a bad umpire's call, a few moments here or there. There's also something called regression to the mean, "the idea that rare or extreme events are likely to be followed by more typical ones." - basically, all those close games that could have gone either way that they won the majority of (extreme event), a few moments go the other team's way and they lose a few of them (more typical event) and drop a little.

They could certainly improve again in 2023, but with a likely harder draw coming for them, it wouldn't surprise if they miss the top 4. Remember from outside this year's top 4, teams like Brisbane, Freo, Carlton, Richmond are all going to be looking to improve strongly and contend for top 4, not to mention smokies outside the 8 like Gold Coast, Port Adelaide who history shows some sort of bottom team makes a big jump every year.

That’s assuming Collingwood will be involved in close games next year. Collingwood might blow sides out of the park playing 2-3 quarters of fast free flowing footy from defence to attack. They will likely be much better at clearances.

Prior to the finals I wasn’t sure how they’d go but it was a very encouraging final series. They mostly matched it against the cats and just fell short at the SCG. Fill in a couple of gaps and the pies will be there abouts for the flag next year.

 

[juss]

That’s assuming Collingwood will be involved in close games next year. Collingwood might blow sides out of the park playing 2-3 quarters of fast free flowing footy from defence to attack. They will likely be much better at clearances.

Prior to the finals I wasn’t sure how they’d go but it was a very encouraging final series. They mostly matched it against the cats and just fell short at the SCG. Fill in a couple of gaps and the pies will be there abouts for the flag next year.

They very well may be, I'm not saying they can't. But there'd be a dozen clubs optimistic of improvement.

 

[jaaack]

1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Fremantle
4. Melbourne
5. Carlton
6. Port Adelaide
7. Gold Coast
8. Collingwood

9. Richmond
10. Western Bulldogs
11. Sydney
12. Brisbane
13. St Kilda
14. Greater Western Sydney
15. Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. North Melbourne
18. Essendon