List Mgmt. 2023 List Management

[Stamos]

It will make a difference, we become worse


People have really lost their balance when it has come to Dow, but it's probably more about, "do well at VFL, replace not so good AFL" This is a weekly occurrence

Hewett, having a poor start to the season, is averaging 3.8 clearances (also spent time off HB), last year 6.6

Dow has never averaged more 2.8 in any season

So, Dow isn't in the same postcode as Hewett, whether it's as an attacking or defensive mid

The only theory is change for the sake of change

Year's average isn't an accurate reflection of Hewett's form, given he had 8 in Round 1, and was one of two Carlton players to get coaches votes. If he was playing like that, then this wouldn't even be a discussion.

But since returning from injury, he's had 4, 1 & 2. He's well down on his previous form, and, he's below what Dow could produce in his 1 real crack at it against the Pies last year.

 

[Arr0w]

Year's average isn't an accurate reflection of Hewett's form, given he had 8 in Round 1, and was one of two Carlton players to get coaches votes. If he was playing like that, then this wouldn't even be a discussion.

But since returning from injury, he's had 4, 1 & 2. He's well down on his previous form, and, he's below what Dow could produce in his 1 real crack at it against the Pies last year.

Right, so we are now going to use just 1 of Dow's games

Please just stop, Hewett won't be dropped for Dow

 

[HarryFlashman]

It will make a difference, we become worse


People have really lost their balance when it has come to Dow, but it's probably more about, "do well at VFL, replace not so good AFL" This is a weekly occurrence

Hewett, having a poor start to the season, is averaging 3.8 clearances (also spent time off HB), last year 6.6

Dow has never averaged more 2.8 in any season

So, Dow isn't in the same postcode as Hewett, whether it's as an attacking or defensive mid

The only theory is change for the sake of change

FFS!! Dow is not the same player he was 2 seasons ago- stop using that as his baseline! What’s more reflective of current ability/skills? Last couple weeks or even the season last yr in VFL? or AFL 2 yrs ago?

 

[Arr0w]

FFS!! Dow is not the same player he was 2 seasons ago- stop using that as his baseline! What’s more reflective of current ability/skills? Last couple weeks or even the season last yr in VFL? or AFL 2 yrs ago?

Mate not interested in your Dow bias, try it on with someone else

 

[HarryFlashman]

Right, so we are now going to use just 1 of Dow's games

Please just stop, Hewett won't be dropped for Dow

Funny - Fish has only had 1 good half & your happy to trot that out as “how he plays/what he does” .
The good half wasn’t even playing his position, he was playing so poorly they let him go sweep & get easy touches!

 

[Stamos]

Right, so we are now going to use just 1 of Dow's games

Please just stop, Hewett won't be dropped for Dow

Dow got dropped after 1 game that was better than what Hewett has given for the last 3 weeks in a row.
And our midfield mix against the Crows was busted.

 

[Arr0w]

Funny - Fish has only had 1 good half & your happy to trot that out as “how he plays/what he does” .
The good half wasn’t even playing his position, he was playing so poorly they let him go sweep & get easy touches!

We are talking about Dow v Hewett

 

[Arr0w]

Dow got dropped after 1 game that was better than what Hewett has given for the last 3 weeks in a row.
And our midfield mix against the Crows was busted.

Stamos, I leave you with the other poster wanting Dow in

No need to continue the debate with me

 

[HarryFlashman]

We are talking about Dow v Hewett

You were talking using 1 game as a measure.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

Right, so we are now going to use just 1 of Dow's games

Please just stop, Hewett won't be dropped for Dow

Hewetts form over three weeks warrants demotion.
He needs a refresh this is AFL and not the Australian cricket team.

 

[Arr0w]

You were talking using 1 game as a measure.

No I wasn't, go back and read the interaction

 

[Arr0w]

Hewetts form over three weeks warrants demotion.
He needs a refresh this is AFL and not the Australian cricket team.

May need to be managed, but not dropped or replaced for Dow

 

[Arr0w]

Anyway, list management, not this week's ins and outs

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Which quick players have we recruited in the last 5 years, that weren't injury prone prior?

Scarcely my point. I don't think players on the fringes of their own club are who we should be targeting, unless we've identified them as potentially on the rise and won't cost us the earth. I also don't want us giving up high picks for players who will never factor into AA calculations. Who we bring in from here on need to be able to give us an edge. I think bringing in players to fix deficiencies is the wrong mindset to have.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Anyway, list management, not this week's ins and outs

Give Dow a 3yr contract now while he’s dirt cheap & get the **** out of his way & let him play.
Worst case it won’t cost that much if it’s a bust, best case we make out like bandits when he comes good
Probably a cheaper mistake than Williams
or Martins contracts for what they have produced

 

[Blue By Blood]

With all this Dow chat..

One thing that I find interesting is that other teams have systems/structures that allow them to integrate players with significant deficiencies in order to extract their strengths. Dow has his limitations which have been discussed ad nauseam (lack of pressure, two way running etc.) but he also has strengths we sorely lack (acceleration from stoppage, quick clean hands).

We need to find a way to implement him into the team. I believe we do this by rotating in-game our midfield guys with the added benefit of keeping them fresh. Other teams do this but we go all game with the same setup. This means Cripps, Kennedy, Cerra and Hewett have less impact as fatigue sets in and when the game is on the line. Cripps can impact forward. Kennedy is a nice mark and accurate kick. Cerra, Walsh and Hewett can take spells off half back. Dow gives us something we don’t have. Time to stop playing it safe. Everything we do is safe.

One final point. Big believer that consistent VFL form has to be rewarded. That creates a stronger culture. Absolutely sends the wrong message when you have a guy blitzing week in week out at the lower level but is constantly overlooked for guys being pigeon holed back into the team or rushed back from injury.

 

[Arr0w]

Scarcely my point. I don't think players on the fringes of their own club are what we should be targeting, unless we've identified them as potentially on the rise and won't cost us the earth.

They don't have to be on the rise, they just need to fill a need

Just like Young from the Dogs

I also don't want us giving up high picks for players who will never factor into AA calculations. Who we bring in from here on need to be able to give us an edge. I think bringing in players to fix deficiencies is the wrong mindset to have.

Never suggested we give up high currency, but it it was a perfect fit, in terms of need and point of difference, you consider the merits

 

[thylacine60]

scenario:
paddy plays in the ones and kills it
paddy fans: I told you so
paddy skeptics: yeah, he's finally twigged

90 pages of list management toing and froing later:
aph: take it wherever you like just take it the **** out of here

 

[AndyLucimitis]

With all this Dow chat..

One thing that I find interesting is that other teams have systems/structures that allow them to integrate players with significant deficiencies in order to extract their strengths. Dow has his limitations which have been discussed ad nauseam (lack of pressure, two way running etc.) but he also has strengths we sorely lack (acceleration from stoppage, quick clean hands).

We need to find a way to implement him into the team. I believe we do this by rotating in-game our midfield guys with the added benefit of keeping them fresh. Other teams do this but we go all game with the same setup. This means Cripps, Kennedy, Cerra and Hewett have less impact as fatigue sets in and when the game is on the line. Cripps can impact forward. Kennedy is a nice mark and accurate kick. Cerra, Walsh and Hewett can take spells off half back. Dow gives us something we don’t have. Time to stop playing it safe. Everything we do is safe.

One final point. Big believer that consistent VFL form has to be rewarded. That creates a stronger culture. Absolutely sends the wrong message when you have a guy blitzing week in week out at the lower level but is constantly overlooked for guys being pigeon holed back into the team or rushed back from injury.

I was thinking the same thing - we know he, perhaps , he isn't great defensively but he does seem to be attacking weapon.

Do we structure the side to allow him to be purely be an attacking player and leave the defense to others. It works the other way where a player like Ed Curnow is played because of his defensive and tagging skills.

If Dow can be damaging enough out of the centre and stoppages it forces the opposition to man him up which may free up others.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

May need to be managed, but not dropped or replaced for Dow

What other options are there?
Put Acres in the middle bring in Binns exposing a rookie to play on Wood who is in AA form.
or
Bring in Durdin and Cincotta ousting Plowman, put Kennedy in the middle not HB is he 100%?
Do you see another solution?

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

Overall I’m reasonably happy with the job Austin has done since taking over, Saad and Cerra both well recruited and we paid a fair price for them when looking back at who we would have picked around those draft picks.

Motlop, Durdin, hollands and Cowan all look like nice picks who should have good careers at the blues.

One thing I am a bit concerned by is the length of contracts he hands out to players, Hewitt, Kennedy and Fisher all contracted until 2025 why? If trade week started tomorrow I doubt any of these players would get us a pick inside 40.

Zac Williams contracted to 2026 is horrible but I give Austin a pass on this as I suspect our ex ceo had a lot of influence on this deal.

O’Brien, Cottrell and Owies 2 year deals off the rookie list ? Why where else were they going. Dow having an extra year on his contract suddenly appear with little explanation last year and reportedly on a large amount?

Charlie and Harry signed until 2029 and 2030 ? It’s great to have our stars signed up but 7/8 years is a long time in football especially with players like these two who have had a lot of injuries in the past and rely more on their ridiculous athleticism rather than football smarts.

Even the Cripps deal while he is our superstar 2027 is a long time for an inside midfielder who takes as much punishment as him week in week out, inside mids can hit the wall out of nowhere not many make it past 31/32 with a few exceptions.

Long term 5 year plus deals should only be used in exceptional circumstances for exceptional and totally professional players if Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

signed one of these deals I would be ecstatic but they should be the exception rather than the norm.

 

[Blue__Balls]

It will make a difference, we become worse


People have really lost their balance when it has come to Dow, but it's probably more about, "do well at VFL, replace not so good AFL" This is a weekly occurrence

Hewett, having a poor start to the season, is averaging 3.8 clearances (also spent time off HB), last year 6.6

Dow has never averaged more 2.8 in any season

So, Dow isn't in the same postcode as Hewett, whether it's as an attacking or defensive mid

The only theory is change for the sake of change

You should know better than to throw stats around without context.

"Dow has never averaged more 2.8 in any season"

Except 2021, when he averaged 2.9.
With 1 game as the unused substitute.
And two games with less than 25% TOG (assuming subbed on late or subbed off early).
Adjust for "complete" games and it was 3.2 per game.

Then we could always go a step further and try to work out how much more time Dow spent at HF or in the forward pocket, compared to Hewett at HB. I can't be arsed, but if you can get away with an unsubstantiated "also spent time off HB" then I feel perfectly comfortable saying that Dow likely spent relatively more time forward.

Could even maybe allow for the fact that Dow went into that season with 42 games to his name. Hewett had 120 games notched by the start of last season.

But hey - let us put all that aside for now. This isn't, and has never been framed as, a discussion around pure statistics. It is about balance. It is about some fans being open to the idea that having a 23yo burst midfielder with a clean hands and a point to prove (not to mention a contract to play for) in the midfield mix might be a good thing. Irrespective of his individual stat sheet, his presence might change how opposition midfields need to set up against us. He might be good for 4+ clearances a game himself, but having him there might help Cripps, Kennedy, Cerra, Walsh, Hewett - whoever else we utilise - get a few more as well.

Now - it might not work. That's a genuine possibility. But geez it would be pretty shit to find our slow midfield getting picked apart by better sides, have us miss finals, and then look back and wonder if that maligned kid in the ressies could have made something of a difference. Would suck to then delist him, despite him wanting to stay and be part of the club, then have him snapped up for free by a team who are willing to play him as he is and put a few balanced/defensive mids around him.

And on top of that, while we've got senior/experienced mids who are out of form, out of touch, or carrying an injury - it certainly seems like an opportune time to give Dow his run. If it doesn't work, we can bring back a fresh Hewett or Kennedy or Cripps or whoever, and maybe have them in their 6.6 clearance a game form, instead of their 3.2 a game form, for the run to finals.

 

[Juddernaut08]

On Hewett - when 100% he's clearly in our best 22, and is probably our 2nd best clearance mid after Crippa. He actually fits quite well because he is a bigger body and can be used both in an attacking and defensive setup. He can also play that negating role (although not as good as Ed Curnow) if needed.

Importantly, he's a viable clearance mid if Cripps is not in the middle.

At the moment though, Hewett is not playing well. He's been substantially worse than Ed, who many consider on the fringe anyway.

I don't care if it's for Dow or not, but he needs to be managed/rested until he's good to go.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Overall I’m reasonably happy with the job Austin has done since taking over, Saad and Cerra both well recruited and we paid a fair price for them when looking back at who we would have picked around those draft picks.

Motlop, Durdin, hollands and Cowan all look like nice picks who should have good careers at the blues.

One thing I am a bit concerned by is the length of contracts he hands out to players, Hewitt, Kennedy and Fisher all contracted until 2025 why? If trade week started tomorrow I doubt any of these players would get us a pick inside 40.

Zac Williams contracted to 2026 is horrible but I give Austin a pass on this as I suspect our ex ceo had a lot of influence on this deal.

O’Brien, Cottrell and Owies 2 year deals off the rookie list ? Why where else were they going. Dow having an extra year on his contract suddenly appear with little explanation last year and reportedly on a large amount?

Charlie and Harry signed until 2029 and 2030 ? It’s great to have our stars signed up but 7/8 years is a long time in football especially with players like these two who have had a lot of injuries in the past and rely more on their ridiculous athleticism rather than football smarts.

Even the Cripps deal while he is our superstar 2027 is a long time for an inside midfielder who takes as much punishment as him week in week out, inside mids can hit the wall out of nowhere not many make it past 31/32 with a few exceptions.

Long term 5 year plus deals should only be used in exceptional circumstances for exceptional and totally professional players if Sam Walsh signed one of these deals I would be ecstatic but they should be the exception rather than the norm.

I don't have full visibility (obviously) but on the stars I think on the contrary, he's done a fantastic job there.

it's always a balance between length + money. Cripps/Charlie/Harry would likely have costed us more $$$ if we were only willing to go with a short term contract. It's a pretty good bet to bet on stars, and locking them away allows us to focus on building around a strong foundation.

Certainly agree with LOB/Cott/Owies, but again it could be about amounts.

Williams deal hurts.

 

[Jeremias]

Overall I’m reasonably happy with the job Austin has done since taking over, Saad and Cerra both well recruited and we paid a fair price for them when looking back at who we would have picked around those draft picks.

Motlop, Durdin, hollands and Cowan all look like nice picks who should have good careers at the blues.

One thing I am a bit concerned by is the length of contracts he hands out to players, Hewitt, Kennedy and Fisher all contracted until 2025 why? If trade week started tomorrow I doubt any of these players would get us a pick inside 40.

Zac Williams contracted to 2026 is horrible but I give Austin a pass on this as I suspect our ex ceo had a lot of influence on this deal.

O’Brien, Cottrell and Owies 2 year deals off the rookie list ? Why where else were they going. Dow having an extra year on his contract suddenly appear with little explanation last year and reportedly on a large amount?

Charlie and Harry signed until 2029 and 2030 ? It’s great to have our stars signed up but 7/8 years is a long time in football especially with players like these two who have had a lot of injuries in the past and rely more on their ridiculous athleticism rather than football smarts.

Even the Cripps deal while he is our superstar 2027 is a long time for an inside midfielder who takes as much punishment as him week in week out, inside mids can hit the wall out of nowhere not many make it past 31/32 with a few exceptions.

Long term 5 year plus deals should be used only be used in exceptional circumstances for exceptional and totally professional players if Sam Walsh signed one of these deals I would be ecstatic but they should be the exception rather than the norm.

You are being grossly unfair on the club here IMO.

Sure, long term deals are risky but we are hardly the only club operating in that space. It is very much the norm for marquee players in the current environment. This is not an issue for our club specifically.

7+ year deals

Clayton Oliver
Christian Petracca
Jacob Hopper
Tim Taranto
Josh Kelly
Lachie Whitfield
Stephen Coniglio
Tom Lynch
Dustin Martin

6 years:

Charlie Curnow
Callum Mills
Darcy Moore
Shai Bolton
Isaac Heeney
Patrick Cripps
Zach Merrett
Hayden Young
Zac Williams
Toby Greene
Brad Hill
Tim Kelly
Dylan Shiel
Brandon Ellis

5 years; far too many to mention, and I think you probably get the point anyway.

Players are opting for longer term contracts and are prepared to accept a lower annual salary for that additional security.
It's all well and good to say we should push back on that, but what exactly do we stand to gain by doing so? And does that potential gain outweigh the likely situation of not being as attractive a destination for potential recruits?