Autopsy 2023 Rd 18 Bruising Blues shortcircuit Power

Who played well for the Blues in Round 18 vs Port?

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teddy-hopkins said:
You can't compare Hewett's possessions or play to Dow. Dow got nearly double the metres gained. Biting off a lot more challenging possessions. Hewett had 6 pos as sub a few weeks back for -27 metres gained.

I thought Paddy was decent but lacked a bit of desperation at times at other times he looked like a perfect compliment to the rest of our midfield.

He has that dash and pace that Hewett never will. Hopefully he's got another gear though as he was at times just a bit too casual. Career on the line Paddy - have a crack mate.
Click to expand...
It's an interesting comparison. They had similar numbers for kicks, marks, pressure acts, clearances, inside 50s, score involvements... most things really outside of metres gained, disposal efficiency/effective disposals and tackles.

There's a little bit of a discrepancy in TOG, 64% to 72%, with Dow starting late as sub. From memory Dow has rarely played high minutes, so giving him the extra 12.5% multiplier to equal Hewett is definitely fair.

MG is 212 vs 362 (407 with the multiplier), so Paddy is moving the ball forward a bit shy of double what George did. Dow had a pretty handy MG there, but the counter argument is going to be that it's about more than just how far forward a player managed to move the ball.

There was a notable difference in DE%, 74% to 53%. That makes GH's effective disposals 14 of 19 and PD's were 8 of 15 (or 9 from 17). If you want to do some real nasty approximation, we can look at the metres gained but in the context of disposal efficiency, so multiplying MG by DE%. In that, GH was 212 x 74% =156, while PD ended up with 192 (or 216 with multiplier) in what I'll call approximated effective metres gained.

It's still a bit of a difference, ballpark of 30% increase from GH to PD, but not nearly as significant as the raw metres gained stats (which doesn't take into account anything about the end result, ie turnover, ball out, missed goal, etc).

Tackles was the other big one, George with 5 and Dow with 0... so multiplier has the same impact as Paddy on that front, zero.

Do you take the ~200 approximated effective metres gained or do you take ~50m less to gain 5 tackles? That's probably the ongoing debate in a nutshell... Dow does more offensively and provides a different look to our midfield group but be a little loose on his disposal, while Hewett does less but is safer with it (& tackles/minds opposition players).
 
CJMB said:
It's an interesting comparison. They had similar numbers for kicks, marks, pressure acts, clearances, inside 50s, score involvements... most things really outside of metres gained, disposal efficiency/effective disposals and tackles.

There's a little bit of a discrepancy in TOG, 64% to 72%, with Dow starting late as sub. From memory Dow has rarely played high minutes, so giving him the extra 12.5% multiplier to equal Hewett is definitely fair.

MG is 212 vs 362 (407 with the multiplier), so Paddy is moving the ball forward a bit shy of double what George did. Dow had a pretty handy MG there, but the counter argument is going to be that it's about more than just how far forward a player managed to move the ball.

There was a notable difference in DE%, 74% to 53%. That makes GH's effective disposals 14 of 19 and PD's were 8 of 15 (or 9 from 17). If you want to do some real nasty approximation, we can look at the metres gained but in the context of disposal efficiency, so multiplying MG by DE%. In that, GH was 212 x 74% =156, while PD ended up with 192 (or 216 with multiplier) in what I'll call approximated effective metres gained.

It's still a bit of a difference, ballpark of 30% increase from GH to PD, but not nearly as significant as the raw metres gained stats (which doesn't take into account anything about the end result, ie turnover, ball out, missed goal, etc).

Tackles was the other big one, George with 5 and Dow with 0... so multiplier has the same impact as Paddy on that front, zero.

Do you take the ~200 approximated effective metres gained or do you take ~50m less to gain 5 tackles? That's probably the ongoing debate in a nutshell... Dow does more offensively and provides a different look to our midfield group but be a little loose on his disposal, while Hewett does less but is safer with it (& tackles/minds opposition players).
Click to expand...
Wow, imagine what your calculations would say if they played the same role & position.
For all your allowances, u kinda missed centre attendances (17v7) & that one played as a mid & the other didn’t - which is huge outlier for the tackle count (inside mids generally top the tackle count- especially defensive ones)
 
Coaches votes:-


10 Jack Silvagni (CARL) 👏👏👏
8 Patrick Cripps (CARL)
6 Dan Houston (PORT)
2 Tom De Koning (CARL)
2 Charlie Curnow (CARL)
2 Nicholas Newman (CARL)
 
Now not only are we comparing Dow to Hewett, but we are cherry picking stats of other players to form an argument as to why Dow should be in the side?

We have a KPF and a small/medium defender to replace, not a midfielder and Dow still isn't ahead of Cripps, Cerra, Walsh, Hewett, Doc, Acres, Cotts.

Nor is he ahead of forwards who can rotate through the middle such as Cuners, Martin, Fog

Dow will likely be the sub again, or he may get a full game, not a big deal
 
CJMB said:
It's an interesting comparison. They had similar numbers for kicks, marks, pressure acts, clearances, inside 50s, score involvements... most things really outside of metres gained, disposal efficiency/effective disposals and tackles.

There's a little bit of a discrepancy in TOG, 64% to 72%, with Dow starting late as sub. From memory Dow has rarely played high minutes, so giving him the extra 12.5% multiplier to equal Hewett is definitely fair.

MG is 212 vs 362 (407 with the multiplier), so Paddy is moving the ball forward a bit shy of double what George did. Dow had a pretty handy MG there, but the counter argument is going to be that it's about more than just how far forward a player managed to move the ball.

There was a notable difference in DE%, 74% to 53%. That makes GH's effective disposals 14 of 19 and PD's were 8 of 15 (or 9 from 17). If you want to do some real nasty approximation, we can look at the metres gained but in the context of disposal efficiency, so multiplying MG by DE%. In that, GH was 212 x 74% =156, while PD ended up with 192 (or 216 with multiplier) in what I'll call approximated effective metres gained.

It's still a bit of a difference, ballpark of 30% increase from GH to PD, but not nearly as significant as the raw metres gained stats (which doesn't take into account anything about the end result, ie turnover, ball out, missed goal, etc).

Tackles was the other big one, George with 5 and Dow with 0... so multiplier has the same impact as Paddy on that front, zero.

Do you take the ~200 approximated effective metres gained or do you take ~50m less to gain 5 tackles? That's probably the ongoing debate in a nutshell... Dow does more offensively and provides a different look to our midfield group but be a little loose on his disposal, while Hewett does less but is safer with it (& tackles/minds opposition players).
Click to expand...

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Teams who play WCE on run home

RD 19 Carlton: Marvel ? 111.1
RD 20 North Melb : Optus
RD 21 ******** : Marvel ? 101.2
RD 22 Fremantle : Optus
RD 23 Bulldogs : Marvel ? 104.5
RD 24 Adelaide : Optus ? 114.8

? All fighting for finals along with
Geelong St Kilda Adelaide GWS Richmond GCS & Sydney
 
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Sorry, late to the forum again and up to page 32!.
What can you say about that performance. I was confident we could win, but not expecting such a complete & brilliant 4 Quarter win like that.
And even when Port challenged through their champion players like Rozee, Butters & Houston. WE were able to keep strong and keep pressing on.
I'm calling it the best win of the year. AND, we can improve,

A huge shout out to great games by: SOS, Newman, De Koning Acres & McGov. But we have had contribution from the whole team.

It's starting to get really exciting now.

How big is the game against the Pies !!!!! Go Blues.
 
Media saying we're back to the form of the start of last year, but it's more than that.

No 1-2 quarters of irresistible football and then just hang on for dear life.
No sledgehammer out of the clearance but then sliced open back in the other direction.
No taking the foot off the throat when the game's in hand.
We finally look like a team, instead of half a dozen stars covering for half a dozen witch's hats.
Best 4 quarter team effort I can remember in a long time.
 
HarryFlashman said:
Wow, imagine what your calculations would say if they played the same role & position.
For all your allowances, u kinda missed centre attendances (17v7) & that one played as a mid & the other didn’t - which is huge outlier for the tackle count (inside mids generally top the tackle count- especially defensive ones)
Click to expand...
If they played the same position & minutes against identical opposition in equivalent games?... Probably still say that George is the defensive one (tackles more, safer disposal, less aggressive forward movement) while Paddy is the attacking option (moves the ball forward and at pace but can turn it over/spray it and isn't really focused his direct opponent).

For what it's worth I wasn't arguing either case, just putting up a comparison as I think the attacking vs defensive player is fairly interesting to see.

If that's the way you want to look it at, perhaps we should consider the contested possessions too? Typically a higher contested possession rate, like at the coalface/CBAs/inside mid, results in a lower DE% however it appears to be reversed in this instance. 27% CP and 53% DE, versus 53% CP and 74% DE.
 
I mentioned it last week but it's shown itself again. Cripps is kicking excellently and has been for weeks. Kicking for goal is still ehhh but his field kicking from 15-30 metres has been excellent. He's doing really well at lowering his vision and hitting the shorter kicks instead of trying to overkick a long clearance.
 
TwiggleyFanClub said:
Media saying we're back to the form of the start of last year, but it's more than that.

No 1-2 quarters of irresistible football and then just hang on for dear life.
No sledgehammer out of the clearance but then sliced open back in the other direction.
No taking the foot off the throat when the game's in hand.
We finally look like a team, instead of half a dozen stars covering for half a dozen witch's hats.
Best 4 quarter team effort I can remember in a long time.
Click to expand...

The biggest thing I've noticed is that the ball is living inside our forward half for the majority of the first 15 minutes of every game. It puts all sorts of pressure on the opposition and must have a negative impact mentally for them and obviously gives us great confidence. We need to make sure we are taking our chances during this period. On Saturday we were 2.4.16. Hopfully against Collingwood we can make it 5.1.31
 
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Aphrodite said:
Our % is better than the Saints, Doggies & *
Click to expand...
Think it was in reference to CFC, Adelaide & SYD in the lower reaches.

Adelaide vs WCE last round of the season, % + 4pts & maybe the Coleman for Tex.

Draw is (currently) only relevant to Geelong, Rich (<100%) & SYD on the way home with 110%+ for GFC & SS.

Just keep on winning will do it.
 
CJMB said:
If they played the same position & minutes against identical opposition in equivalent games?... Probably still say that George is the defensive one (tackles more, safer disposal, less aggressive forward movement) while Paddy is the attacking option (moves the ball forward and at pace but can turn it over/spray it and isn't really focused his direct opponent).

For what it's worth I wasn't arguing either case, just putting up a comparison as I think the attacking vs defensive player is fairly interesting to see.

If that's the way you want to look it at, perhaps we should consider the contested possessions too? Typically a higher contested possession rate, like at the coalface/CBAs/inside mid, results in a lower DE% however it appears to be reversed in this instance. 27% CP and 53% DE, versus 53% CP and 74% DE.
Click to expand...
I agree with your broad summation & impressed how u are working the numbers & accounting for some variables. Like the math, just highlighting the difference in rolls - would be really interesting to run the stats when they both play inside.
Both players need to have played otherwise it would be interesting to run Hew & MK & see how it washes out.
 
The Bighouse said:
Think it was in reference to CFC, Adelaide & SYD in the lower reaches.

Adelaide vs WCE last round of the season, % + 4pts & maybe the Coleman for Tex.

Draw is (currently) only relevant to Geelong, Rich (<100%) & SYD on the way home with 110%+ for GFC & SS.

Just keep on winning will do it.
Click to expand...


Yes it was but 3 Clubs in the 8 have a lesser % than us.

Just adding to the discussion.
 
I missed the game as I as out with the family but was nervously checking scores and checking in here. Sinjin Jnr and myself watched it Sat night when we got home and then again yesterday afternoon as it was such a good win. A few of our combined musings:

1) King Charles gets scragged something chronic and gets no love from the umps, there was one blatant case where Allir was grabbing one arm whilst Charles attempted to take a one hander, no whistle, lucky Motlop was at his feet and kicked truly. To Charlie's credit he never whinges, never stops trying, doesn't even give the umps a dirty look

2) The lesser lights shone. Everyone has talked about Silvagni and Motlop but on second viewing Fogarty was instrumental, McGovern played a blinder, Acres just kept running, Cottrell was a menace. This team is rolling as a unit now, there's no mind frame to get them fired up (which falls apart when it runs out of steam), they are simply playing as a united team and most importantly you can tell they are really enjoying their football.

3) For such a win I don't like concentrating on negatives but seriously the umpiring was shocking. What was it 4-5 goals from very scratchy free kicks whilst our forwards especially King Charles get molested at the other end was infuriating.

4) The most important part and one that is proving me wrong every week (yes I am guilty). The coaching. Voss putting Saad on SPP was a masterstroke, he knew the damage SPP can cause with just a few touches and to place an attacking weapon like Saad on him countered SPP brilliantly. Remember earlier in the year when Adelaide shut down Saad with Keays? Then St Kilda did the same thing? Voss is thinking strategically, something I didn't think he was capable of. Letting McGovern run off his man and play on instinct, beautiful. Managing the troops and keeping the attack going when one of our most important cogs in McKay goes down in the first quarter, just fantastic Vossy. I owe you an apology, please keep this up.

Whilst destiny is in our own hands regarding finals I wont be too crushed if we dont, as long as we play the rest of this year with this brand of football and keep our next pre season quiet, keep things in house and build off the end of this year then we can expect big things next year.

And finally, sign up TDK and JSOS immediately!!
 
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