Autopsy 2023 Rd 18 Bruising Blues shortcircuit Power

Who played well for the Blues in Round 18 vs Port?


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  • Poll closed .

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There is a play I'd like to highlight that I think is pivotal to how things have changed.

The ball goes in long to the goalsquare in an uncluttered forward line, courtesy of a stoppage at genuine wing being won and won clean, with mids bursting and running in numbers to hammer the ball deep before they could get set up. The ball spills out the back, with Cottrell, Doch and Fogarty all present with Cotts there first; Cotts runs onto the now loose ball, but overruns it.

In rounds before the bye, Cottrell's failure to pick the ball up would've resulted in an instant turnover, with opposition defense clearing the ball out the loose side of the ground. In this game, a Port player gathered the ball and looked for a target only to find nothing immediately obvious down the line; not even a ******* contest. He holds onto the ball whilst jogging forward, allowing Fogarty to catch him the second down the line appears; Fogarty's tackle takes his hips, turning him before he gets boot to ball and causing the ball to spill loose. Docherty is the last on the scene, but he gathers and handpasses to Cotts, but - and here's the important bit - blocks the chasing player from Cotts, who swings onto the snap and goals for his first.

Cripps and Doch - and Saad, and Charlie, and Weitering, and TDK, and Gov, and Acres, and Martin, and - are both playing a good deal less selfishly. They're both blocking, laying tackles. Plenty of people are noting the lower possession counts; Cerra after the Hawks game flagged much lower TOG figures for the mids, with more players moving through there and getting their turn to impact leading to more rests for everyone and - thus - lower possession counts, fresher players and better decisions and disposal. It also impacts how much defensive running we can do; if you're better rested, you run for longer obviously, but you also can go for desperate tackles and smothers and second/third/fourth efforts where you otherwise couldn't.

Players have gone from tiring themselves out chasing to more directed effort. Players have gone from 'It has to be me' to a team first ethos. Role players get more time to execute and more space to ensure they don't stuff it up.

The biggest difference is added by the inclusion of the following players: Cincotta, Boyd, Kemp, Cuningham, Fogarty. Kemp for Young has - frankly - completely transformed our back 6; we've gone from stagnant, stop start play from the back half to scything through a zone like a lightsaber through butter. Boyd, Saad and Cinc are all quick, and Boyd and Saad are fast. Gov's form has been nothing short of exceptional for a month now, but it's his defensive efforts instead of simply his disposal that stand out now; defensive tackling, smothering. I defy anyone who thinks Boyd isn't a significant out to suspension; his disposal, speed and hardness has been ******* stellar. Saad shines when he's not needed as a star; if he slips under the radar, he'll hurt you badly but if you focus on him you're going to struggle. The current method works because there's not a meaningful difference between him and the others; he doesn't stand out, so you don't notice him cutting you to pieces by foot or saving goals by taking 5m out of nowhere.

Plenty has been said about Cuningham's inclusion, and why the * not? He's been the player we've known he could be; tackles, breaking clear from congestion, neat clean disposal and a bit of class to complement the more workmanlike other smalls inside forward 50 in Fog and Owies/Motlop.

I've always had more than a soft spot for Fog. He's a coach's footballer; he's not going to win many awards, he'll never win a BnF, but what he'll do is work his arse off for you. His tackling and speed - meaning, the tackles he can make that others can't - has been nothing short of transformational in the front half of the field; legitimately, there's nowhere that's safe for opposition now. Cyril Rioli had the softest footfalls in sport because how the * did he blindsight so many players so suddenly; well, Fog's got a bit of the same sort of thing, a suddenness, a leaping smothering grasp that turns clean disposal into panic and error. His name is referred pressure; there's nowhere front of half back you can consider yourself clear of the possibility of his presence.

He's averaging 5.2 tackles and a goal a game. Drop him at your own risk.

The gravy for me is that we didn't just do it to Port, the club I hate the most. No; the real beauty of the thing is this victory has turned the tides. No longer are we outside chances for the 8. We can now beat any side with our best footy, and we've been consistent for a month; thinking we'll drop the ball is a bit of a forlorn hope. The only thing that could cruel us is injury, but even then we have the d word now in certain positions to cover them.

Bring on WC. They've been playing some better footy of late, but this game's over here. Let's see if - over the next two weeks - we can kill two birds with one stone.
 
If you want an example of how bad the umpiring was, I am watching the replay and I saw this happen at the game.
In the 2nd quarter after Cottrell's goal, Port do not have a winger and you can see Blake Acres yelling at the umpire who is 2 metres away from and just ignores the 666 rule.
 
Sensational, even effort across four quarter.

I love that we are sticking to us, contested brand and converting to scores. Number 1 in the league for scores from D50 in the last month and Number 1 across the season from scores from contest.

Half back line just works now. Thanks Brodie Kemp!

Blake Acres is a ripper!

Well done Ed Curnow for hosting the team function leading to a turn around. That’s what great clubmen do!

Jacks S and M. (Unintentional linguistic connection) just brilliant.

Davie Boy. Perfect connector and quick.

Just love the process of Blues Footy! If it gets us to the finals, happy days. All I know is, I love this!
 

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and a bulldogs essendon draw this week catapults us into the 8 (assumeing we beat WCE)

You are correct aph, percentage absolutely does make a difference
It makes a difference because it is a strong indicator of a successful brand. It means we are converting contests and turnovers into scores. Significant measurable to support the growth of our game plan.
 
It's an interesting comparison. They had similar numbers for kicks, marks, pressure acts, clearances, inside 50s, score involvements... most things really outside of metres gained, disposal efficiency/effective disposals and tackles.

There's a little bit of a discrepancy in TOG, 64% to 72%, with Dow starting late as sub. From memory Dow has rarely played high minutes, so giving him the extra 12.5% multiplier to equal Hewett is definitely fair.

MG is 212 vs 362 (407 with the multiplier), so Paddy is moving the ball forward a bit shy of double what George did. Dow had a pretty handy MG there, but the counter argument is going to be that it's about more than just how far forward a player managed to move the ball.

There was a notable difference in DE%, 74% to 53%. That makes GH's effective disposals 14 of 19 and PD's were 8 of 15 (or 9 from 17). If you want to do some real nasty approximation, we can look at the metres gained but in the context of disposal efficiency, so multiplying MG by DE%. In that, GH was 212 x 74% =156, while PD ended up with 192 (or 216 with multiplier) in what I'll call approximated effective metres gained.

It's still a bit of a difference, ballpark of 30% increase from GH to PD, but not nearly as significant as the raw metres gained stats (which doesn't take into account anything about the end result, ie turnover, ball out, missed goal, etc).

Tackles was the other big one, George with 5 and Dow with 0... so multiplier has the same impact as Paddy on that front, zero.

Do you take the ~200 approximated effective metres gained or do you take ~50m less to gain 5 tackles? That's probably the ongoing debate in a nutshell... Dow does more offensively and provides a different look to our midfield group but be a little loose on his disposal, while Hewett does less but is safer with it (& tackles/minds opposition players).

I like how Dow compliments the rest of our midfield - he can take the ball away from stoppages and makes it very difficult for the opposition. George is almost panicking when he gets out and has to kick. He's so slow he is almost sure he's going to get tackled. So he looks for the U-turn to make sure he doesn't get pinged.

A couple of times he threw the ball on his boot even when he had space. One of them lobbed in Charlie's lap but not through skill.

Dow being quicker is going to beat the opposition to the ball meaning he'll get tackled more whereas George is slow as a wet week so led to the ball more. A bit like Owies who gets good tackle numbers but I'd prefer he was in first for the ball and the tacklee rather than the tackler.

Having said all that Hewett is very strong and reliable which Voss likes - for good reason.
 
Pretty sure that David King said that we are 7 wins and 0 losses when we kick 11 goals this season, on first crack last night.

Yep, was saying he couldn't understand why we wouldn't be a team that is open to a shoot out given our weapons.

Gotta agree, don't know why the coaches came into this season with a slow, defensive game plan that was all about finding chip kicks and going along the boundary...really dumb.

First Crack showed the big jump in our corridor use and fast transition the last month and we've looked like a top 4 team playing this way.
 
Think it may come down to the GWS game. Thanks the gods old and new it’s in Melbourne

I’m travelling up with the fam to the GC game (Dad lives up there). Booked six weeks ago as more of a winter break and excuse to catch the game. Half checked out thinking we would be well and truly out of the mix… what difference a month makes!

Oh boy those last two games will now be pivotal. They all are!!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
If you want an example of how bad the umpiring was, I am watching the replay and I saw this happen at the game.
In the 2nd quarter after Cottrell's goal, Port do not have a winger and you can see Blake Acres yelling at the umpire who is 2 metres away from and just ignores the 666 rule.
Noticed that, was directly seated on that wing…
Apparently only 17 on the field, extra player was still on the bench, so i was told at the game…
About to watch the replay for the first time, see how that pans out…
 
Media saying we're back to the form of the start of last year, but it's more than that.

No 1-2 quarters of irresistible football and then just hang on for dear life.
No sledgehammer out of the clearance but then sliced open back in the other direction.
No taking the foot off the throat when the game's in hand.
We finally look like a team, instead of half a dozen stars covering for half a dozen witch's hats.
Best 4 quarter team effort I can remember in a long time.

Lol we are playing nothing like we were at the start of the season...we are playing way better, a style that looks capable of going deep into September.

Start of the year, while we didn't lose, we were playing that slow, conservative brand of footy.
 
There is a play I'd like to highlight that I think is pivotal to how things have changed.

The ball goes in long to the goalsquare in an uncluttered forward line, courtesy of a stoppage at genuine wing being won and won clean, with mids bursting and running in numbers to hammer the ball deep before they could get set up. The ball spills out the back, with Cottrell, Doch and Fogarty all present with Cotts there first; Cotts runs onto the now loose ball, but overruns it.

In rounds before the bye, Cottrell's failure to pick the ball up would've resulted in an instant turnover, with opposition defense clearing the ball out the loose side of the ground. In this game, a Port player gathered the ball and looked for a target only to find nothing immediately obvious down the line; not even a ******* contest. He holds onto the ball whilst jogging forward, allowing Fogarty to catch him the second down the line appears; Fogarty's tackle takes his hips, turning him before he gets boot to ball and causing the ball to spill loose. Docherty is the last on the scene, but he gathers and handpasses to Cotts, but - and here's the important bit - blocks the chasing player from Cotts, who swings onto the snap and goals for his first.

Cripps and Doch - and Saad, and Charlie, and Weitering, and TDK, and Gov, and Acres, and Martin, and - are both playing a good deal less selfishly. They're both blocking, laying tackles. Plenty of people are noting the lower possession counts; Cerra after the Hawks game flagged much lower TOG figures for the mids, with more players moving through there and getting their turn to impact leading to more rests for everyone and - thus - lower possession counts, fresher players and better decisions and disposal. It also impacts how much defensive running we can do; if you're better rested, you run for longer obviously, but you also can go for desperate tackles and smothers and second/third/fourth efforts where you otherwise couldn't.

Players have gone from tiring themselves out chasing to more directed effort. Players have gone from 'It has to be me' to a team first ethos. Role players get more time to execute and more space to ensure they don't stuff it up.

The biggest difference is added by the inclusion of the following players: Cincotta, Boyd, Kemp, Cuningham, Fogarty. Kemp for Young has - frankly - completely transformed our back 6; we've gone from stagnant, stop start play from the back half to scything through a zone like a lightsaber through butter. Boyd, Saad and Cinc are all quick, and Boyd and Saad are fast. Gov's form has been nothing short of exceptional for a month now, but it's his defensive efforts instead of simply his disposal that stand out now; defensive tackling, smothering. I defy anyone who thinks Boyd isn't a significant out to suspension; his disposal, speed and hardness has been ******* stellar. Saad shines when he's not needed as a star; if he slips under the radar, he'll hurt you badly but if you focus on him you're going to struggle. The current method works because there's not a meaningful difference between him and the others; he doesn't stand out, so you don't notice him cutting you to pieces by foot or saving goals by taking 5m out of nowhere.

Plenty has been said about Cuningham's inclusion, and why the * not? He's been the player we've known he could be; tackles, breaking clear from congestion, neat clean disposal and a bit of class to complement the more workmanlike other smalls inside forward 50 in Fog and Owies/Motlop.

I've always had more than a soft spot for Fog. He's a coach's footballer; he's not going to win many awards, he'll never win a BnF, but what he'll do is work his arse off for you. His tackling and speed - meaning, the tackles he can make that others can't - has been nothing short of transformational in the front half of the field; legitimately, there's nowhere that's safe for opposition now. Cyril Rioli had the softest footfalls in sport because how the * did he blindsight so many players so suddenly; well, Fog's got a bit of the same sort of thing, a suddenness, a leaping smothering grasp that turns clean disposal into panic and error. His name is referred pressure; there's nowhere front of half back you can consider yourself clear of the possibility of his presence.

He's averaging 5.2 tackles and a goal a game. Drop him at your own risk.

The gravy for me is that we didn't just do it to Port, the club I hate the most. No; the real beauty of the thing is this victory has turned the tides. No longer are we outside chances for the 8. We can now beat any side with our best footy, and we've been consistent for a month; thinking we'll drop the ball is a bit of a forlorn hope. The only thing that could cruel us is injury, but even then we have the d word now in certain positions to cover them.

Bring on WC. They've been playing some better footy of late, but this game's over here. Let's see if - over the next two weeks - we can kill two birds with one stone.
Good summary, thanks.
Just on the Fog. When he came from Geelong, he came with a great reputation as a high pressure tackle beast. High footy IQ and a really dangerous player.
Even some of the Cats fans were sorry to lose him so early. He has had a shocking run with injury, form, injury, form....
We got a glimpse of his earlier promise in the PA game. I hope he gets a decent crack at it. He will only improve. He could be another valuable cog in our half forward mosquito fleet. Pressure on rebound defenders, lock into the forward line, high score involvements and hit the scoreboard. Go Fog.
 
I have no idea why these umpires make such blatant mistakes..........

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Lol we are playing nothing like we were at the start of the season...we are playing way better, a style that looks capable of going deep into September.

Start of the year, while we didn't lose, we were playing that slow, conservative brand of footy.
Start of last year mate. Even then I still agree with your point. This is our game plan from last year taken to another level.
 
Start of last year mate. Even then I still agree with your point. This is our game plan from last year taken to another level.

Ah misread, but yeah even then in terms of what media are saying, while we were in winning form start of last year, it was pretty much all off the back of clearances.

Right now, every facet is working well...our ability to transition the ball, link up with handballs and overlap run, and score on turnover is the best I've seen from Carlton in as long as I can remember.
 
Yes it was but 3 Clubs in the 8 have a lesser % than us.

Just adding to the discussion.
For me, percentage has several roles. The obvious, and objective one, is it can determine position on ladder. But at another level it can also be an indicator of how gettable a side may be. The higher the percentage, the better the wins and the loses aren't so bad which is a sign that a team is playing a better brand of footy. Of course, the type of opposition also needs to be taken into account. If anyone plays WC and North twice you'd expect a higher percentage than versus say playing the likes of Brisbane and Pies twice. For me, we're currently 7th on a percentage ladder, and that gives me succour that we can make the 8, and that teams like SK, WB and * are vulnerable. Of course, the best thing is to keep on winning. Win 4 out of last 6 games we can/might make the 8. Win 5 out of 6 we will make the 8.
 
I’m travelling up with the fam to the GC game (Dad lives up there). Booked six weeks ago as more of a winter break and excuse to catch the game. Half checked out thinking we would be well and truly out of the mix… what difference a month makes!

Oh boy those last two games will now be pivotal. They all are!!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
I am also going to the GC game. Only going for a few days and was finally able to use up my last flight credit from 3 years ago.
Looks like being a must win game at this stage.
 
Just done my ladder predictor, got us finishing fifth. This can only happen if our winning run continues of course.
If we drop one, say to pies. We should still finish seventh, maybe.
What would really help our cause is dogs and cats stumbling once or twice against lesser ranked teams, you never know.
Teams that should inevitably finish above us are, in this order. Pies, Port, Lions, Dees.
 
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