Autopsy 2023 Rd 18 Bruising Blues shortcircuit Power

[The Sultan]

Just done my ladder predictor, got us finishing fifth. This can only happen if our winning run continues of course.
If we drop one, say to pies. We should still finish seventh, maybe.
What would really help our cause is dogs and cats stumbling once or twice against lesser ranked teams, you never know.
Teams that should inevitably finish above us are, in this order. Pies, Port, Lions, Dees.

think the cats are going to keep winning, especially with a good run at Kardinia Park. Think the saints and dogs are susceptible to a shocker and drop an game when they go in as favorites.

as long as we keep playing the way we have been, i will be happy. If we do that then we've got a very good chance to make finals, if we dont then we've got the blue print for next year.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

think the cats are going to keep winning, especially with a good run at Kardinia Park. Think the saints and dogs are susceptible to a shocker and drop an game when they go in as favorites.

as long as we keep playing the way we have been, i will be happy. If we do that then we've got a very good chance to make finals, if we dont then we've got the blue print for next year.

Hardly an easy run, could lose the three non home games and one at home!:

Lions (away) - Lions huge favourites with the bookies...
Freo (Kardinia)
Port (Kardinia)
Pies (MCG)
Saints (Marvel)
Dogs (Kardinia)

They've lost to Freo, the Giants and even Gold Coast this year.

Time will tell.

 

[The Sultan]

Hardly an easy run, could lose the three non home games and one at home!:

Lions (away) - Lions huge favourites with the bookies...
Freo (Kardinia)
Port (Kardinia)
Pies (MCG)
Saints (Marvel)
Dogs (Kardinia)

They've lost to Freo, the Giants and even Gold Coast this year.

Time will tell.

Freo - win
Port - should win
Pies: 50:50 on form
Saints - win
Dogs - win

 

[The Bighouse]

Freo - win
Port - should win
Pies: 50:50 on form
Saints - win
Dogs - win

IIRC, Dockers have (surprisingly) got the chocolates a few times down GMHBA way.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

View attachment 1742711

None of the teams around us, including us, have an easy ride home.
Effectively, we are all playing against each other also which makes it absolutely fascinating

It really is in each clubs own hands whether they make finals or not


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Arr0w]

Just win 5 of the last 6, * anyone else

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Last year finals were in our hands and we just failed!
This year, we’ve bravely come back from the dead, to again have a possible chance at a finals appearance and again it’s in our own hands to take it.
I’d like to think that we can learn from last year, grit the teeth and really show that mental resilience and not let the same thing which happened last year happen this year. Use the agony of last year to make sure we really drive it home

 

[JoeyPBLUES]

Just win 5 of the last 6, * anyone else

I like this plan

 

[katmanblue]

Just win 5 of the last 6, * anyone else

Just...

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

There is a play I'd like to highlight that I think is pivotal to how things have changed.

The ball goes in long to the goalsquare in an uncluttered forward line, courtesy of a stoppage at genuine wing being won and won clean, with mids bursting and running in numbers to hammer the ball deep before they could get set up. The ball spills out the back, with Cottrell, Doch and Fogarty all present with Cotts there first; Cotts runs onto the now loose ball, but overruns it.

In rounds before the bye, Cottrell's failure to pick the ball up would've resulted in an instant turnover, with opposition defense clearing the ball out the loose side of the ground. In this game, a Port player gathered the ball and looked for a target only to find nothing immediately obvious down the line; not even a ******* contest. He holds onto the ball whilst jogging forward, allowing Fogarty to catch him the second down the line appears; Fogarty's tackle takes his hips, turning him before he gets boot to ball and causing the ball to spill loose. Docherty is the last on the scene, but he gathers and handpasses to Cotts, but - and here's the important bit - blocks the chasing player from Cotts, who swings onto the snap and goals for his first.

Cripps and Doch - and Saad, and Charlie, and Weitering, and TDK, and Gov, and Acres, and Martin, and - are both playing a good deal less selfishly. They're both blocking, laying tackles. Plenty of people are noting the lower possession counts; Cerra after the Hawks game flagged much lower TOG figures for the mids, with more players moving through there and getting their turn to impact leading to more rests for everyone and - thus - lower possession counts, fresher players and better decisions and disposal. It also impacts how much defensive running we can do; if you're better rested, you run for longer obviously, but you also can go for desperate tackles and smothers and second/third/fourth efforts where you otherwise couldn't.

Players have gone from tiring themselves out chasing to more directed effort. Players have gone from 'It has to be me' to a team first ethos. Role players get more time to execute and more space to ensure they don't stuff it up.

The biggest difference is added by the inclusion of the following players: Cincotta, Boyd, Kemp, Cuningham, Fogarty. Kemp for Young has - frankly - completely transformed our back 6; we've gone from stagnant, stop start play from the back half to scything through a zone like a lightsaber through butter. Boyd, Saad and Cinc are all quick, and Boyd and Saad are fast. Gov's form has been nothing short of exceptional for a month now, but it's his defensive efforts instead of simply his disposal that stand out now; defensive tackling, smothering. I defy anyone who thinks Boyd isn't a significant out to suspension; his disposal, speed and hardness has been ******* stellar. Saad shines when he's not needed as a star; if he slips under the radar, he'll hurt you badly but if you focus on him you're going to struggle. The current method works because there's not a meaningful difference between him and the others; he doesn't stand out, so you don't notice him cutting you to pieces by foot or saving goals by taking 5m out of nowhere.

Plenty has been said about Cuningham's inclusion, and why the * not? He's been the player we've known he could be; tackles, breaking clear from congestion, neat clean disposal and a bit of class to complement the more workmanlike other smalls inside forward 50 in Fog and Owies/Motlop.

I've always had more than a soft spot for Fog. He's a coach's footballer; he's not going to win many awards, he'll never win a BnF, but what he'll do is work his arse off for you. His tackling and speed - meaning, the tackles he can make that others can't - has been nothing short of transformational in the front half of the field; legitimately, there's nowhere that's safe for opposition now. Cyril Rioli had the softest footfalls in sport because how the * did he blindsight so many players so suddenly; well, Fog's got a bit of the same sort of thing, a suddenness, a leaping smothering grasp that turns clean disposal into panic and error. His name is referred pressure; there's nowhere front of half back you can consider yourself clear of the possibility of his presence.

He's averaging 5.2 tackles and a goal a game. Drop him at your own risk.

The gravy for me is that we didn't just do it to Port, the club I hate the most. No; the real beauty of the thing is this victory has turned the tides. No longer are we outside chances for the 8. We can now beat any side with our best footy, and we've been consistent for a month; thinking we'll drop the ball is a bit of a forlorn hope. The only thing that could cruel us is injury, but even then we have the d word now in certain positions to cover them.

Bring on WC. They've been playing some better footy of late, but this game's over here. Let's see if - over the next two weeks - we can kill two birds with one stone.

Another one was I think a few minutes left in the 3rd. We were up by about 5 goals with Aliir about to clear our F50. Cripps comes across at the last second and smothers the kick, causing a throw in from our pocket. The resulting ruck contest ends with a free to SOS who slots the goal. That was again due to Cripps doing the little things. Lycett took the ball out of the ruck and Jack tackled him, but Cripps runs past and pulls the ball out of Lycett's hands, which results in the incorrect disposal.

You'd think that Cripps might have spent all his tickets in the previous 25+ minutes and would just be happy to see the end of the quarter.

 

[Magruder]

Another one was I think a few minutes left in the 3rd. We were up by about 5 goals with Aliir about to clear our F50. Cripps comes across at the last second and smothers the kick, causing a throw in from our pocket. The resulting ruck contest ends with a free to SOS who slots the goal. That was again due to Cripps doing the little things. Lycett took the ball out of the ruck and Jack tackled him, but Cripps runs past and pulls the ball out of Lycett's hands, which results in the incorrect disposal.

You'd think that Cripps might have spent all his tickets in the previous 25+ minutes and would just be happy to see the end of the quarter.

It's amazing how often success comes from the grind... the willingness to do make repeat efforts.

 

[The Bighouse]

None of the teams around us, including us, have an easy ride home.
Effectively, we are all playing against each other also which makes it absolutely fascinating

It really is in each clubs own hands whether they make finals or not


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

STK have 5 games at Marvel (if that helps them)
SYD have 3 away games in a row.
Giants play at Home @ Manuka where they’re on a 9 game losing streak.
There’s some quirks & some cross (8 point) games but teams will need to bank the gimme games (STK, WBD, ***, RFC have the most), breakdown below.

Is there another draw on the way..

 

[Accidental genius]

STK have 5 games at Marvel (if that helps them)
SYD have 3 away games in a row.
Giants play at Home @ Manuka where they’re on a 9 game losing streak.
There’s some quirks & some cross (8 point) games but teams will need to bank the gimme games (STK, WBD, ***, RFC have the most), breakdown below.

Is there another draw on the way..

View attachment 1744046

I’m dreading that suns game on the Goldie…it’s one of the must wins if we’re to make finals

 

[JustaBattler]

Pretty much every game is an elimination final for every team in the list above - going to make for a very interesting 6 weeks !

 

[I bleed Blue]

Just win 5 of the last 6, * anyone else

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Media saying we're back to the form of the start of last year, but it's more than that.

No 1-2 quarters of irresistible football and then just hang on for dear life.
No sledgehammer out of the clearance but then sliced open back in the other direction.
No taking the foot off the throat when the game's in hand.
We finally look like a team, instead of half a dozen stars covering for half a dozen witch's hats.
Best 4 quarter team effort I can remember in a long time.

Our form at the start was very flaky - we were lucky with who we played. This is very different - our defence for one is attacking rather than focussed on stopping - Weitering a case in point.

Not just a frustrated stopper - much more influential.

Add around him Newman, Saad, Gov, Kemp and Boyd taking it on - it’s a very different reality.

 

[The Bighouse]

I’m dreading that suns game on the Goldie…it’s one of the must wins if we’re to make finals

Hopefully we’ve won the 4 preceding games to make that trip a little less impactful on the W/L outcome - we’re playing good enough football ATM.

Suns have a tough schedule.

 

[TENACIOUS]

STK have 5 games at Marvel (if that helps them)
SYD have 3 away games in a row.
Giants play at Home @ Manuka where they’re on a 9 game losing streak.
There’s some quirks & some cross (8 point) games but teams will need to bank the gimme games (STK, WBD, ***, RFC have the most), breakdown below.

Is there another draw on the way..

View attachment 1744046

If we beat West Coast...
After this round we'll be a worst 9th and at best 6th...

 

[The Bighouse]

If we beat West Coast...
After this round we'll be a worst 9th and at best 6th...

Could be as high as =5th with some cricket scores being kicked by us & BL (draw between * & WBD).
GFC lose by 10 goals & we win by 15 goals if our % is then superior? 5 teams all on 38pts from 5th to 9th.
STK get burnt by Ratt’s & GWS lose.

 

[Bletch]

Could be as high as =5th with some cricket scores being kicked by us & BL (draw between * & WBD).
GFC lose by 10 goals & we win by 15 goals if our % is then superior? 5 teams all on 38pts from 5th to 9th.
STK get burnt by Ratt’s & GWS lose.

So...
Bris beat Cats by ~60 pts
Saints lose (or draw) v Norf
Dogs & * draw
GWS lose (or draw) v Suns
Car beat WCE by ~100 pts

is all we need to be 5th, get on it!

 

[The Bighouse]

So...
Bris beat Cats by ~60 pts
Saints lose (or draw) v Norf
Dogs & * draw
GWS lose (or draw) v Suns
Car beat WCE by ~100 pts

is all we need to be 5th, get on it!

Mick’s Multi…

Some poetic justice for Ratt’s too.
GWS have lost their last 9 “home” games at Manuka.

 

[thylacine60]

Mick’s Multi…

Some poetic justice for Ratt’s too.
GWS have lost their last 9 “home” games at Manuka.

shame we won't be playing honey at manuka..........

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Brisbane 60+
Nth Melb win
Dogs/*** draw
GoldCoast win
Carlton 100+

29,003.70 > $1
Gamble responsibly

Mick’s Multi…

Some poetic justice for Ratt’s too.
GWS have lost their last 9 “home” games at Manuka.

So...
Bris beat Cats by ~60 pts
Saints lose (or draw) v Norf
Dogs & * draw
GWS lose (or draw) v Suns
Car beat WCE by ~100 pts

is all we need to be 5th, get on it!

 

[Sector 7G]

That is great analysis.

One thing I think has also changed is we seem to be kicking inside 50 a lot flatter than we have in the past. Shout out to Newman, Cerra, TDK, Cuningham and Kemp. Doesn't give defenders time to get involved 3rd up, ball is more likely to get over the back (which resulted in walk in goals) and any spoil is more likely to go to a dangerous spot. Didn't always happen as George and Crippa still kicked some moon balls

 

[Blue and Blue]

Finally finished the replay.
That was a hammering but we wasted shots at goal. Could easily have been 80 point margin.