Draft Review 2023 - Re-do the draft

[HeHateMe]

They're all the same and weighted equally. Generally someone like Nick Blakey will score all round but his scores are lower in each model, Forwards and defenders are capable of getting big scores but not consistently enough. Treacey generally does more contested work than Gunston, but Jack has a bigger forward score.

I'd certainly be comparing apples with apples and with respect to forwards I am exploring a finishing model to compare forwards separately.

I think it's a flaw in the logic to compare say territory form a half back as the same as territory from a key forward for example. There could be key forwards that are elite at it for there position but they will only show if you only compare them to other key forwards.

Anyway appreciate your efforts.

 

[peak17]

I think it's a flaw in the logic to compare say territory form a half back as the same as territory from a key forward for example. There could be key forwards that are elite at it for there position but they will only show if you only compare them to other key forwards.

Anyway appreciate your efforts.

Thanks for your feedback. Comparing players apples for apples is something definitely worth investing time into and I'm certainly intending on doing so when it comes to evaluating players on a positional basis.

I agree that role-relative comparisons are useful, but that is a separate layer. The main AFLIA score is measuring absolute output. A key forward who generates territory is credited for it, but he is not normalised against key forwards only in the main table. That would answer a different question: “who is elite for their role?” rather than “who produced the most total value?”

 

[HeHateMe]

Thanks for your feedback. Comparing players apples for apples is something definitely worth investing time into and I'm certainly intending on doing so when it comes to evaluating players on a positional basis.

I agree that role-relative comparisons are useful, but that is a separate layer. The main AFLIA score is measuring absolute output. A key forward who generates territory is credited for it, but he is not normalised against key forwards only in the main table. That would answer a different question: “who is elite for their role?” rather than “who produced the most total value?”

Your ignoring that some roles and position's are more statistically heavy then others but that doesn't make them more valuable. It needs to be positional to be accurate. That's just my view.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

No one is doing close to what Reid has done in this draft if they were stuck in this WC side the last 2 and a half year. It's Reid -> Watson -> Morris then currently throw a blanket over a few. Trying to put Roberts with those first few names is certainly something...

 

[peak17]

Your ignoring that some roles and position's are more statistically heavy then others but that doesn't make them more valuable. It needs to be positional to be accurate. That's just my view.

Each block is standardized and for reference Jeremy Cameron has shown many times that a key forward is more than capable of outscoring midfielders. Key forwards aren't limited to Forward creation and that's the difference between Treacy and King.

That's not what my model is trying to achieve and it doesn't have to be equitable between positions and roles, what matters is how much they impact the game.

 

[RCAB]

Nick Watson has been underwhelming this year. 0.8 goals from a ready made top 10 forward pocket is underwhelming. He literally missed a goal from the goal square last week. He played his first decent game on the weekend.

Never become a recruiter.

 

[RCAB]

but missing his chances is literally what has been disappointing. His skills aren't that great. he's missed so many easy shots. He may turn into a good afl player but I've seen nothing that screams elite.

Watson not elite huh?

 

[RCAB]

I agree with your rankings Danny. They’re spot on.

How's that going for you Elixuh?

 

[RCAB]

2023 National Draft redraft - age-potential model

Formula:

Age-Potential Score =
0.70 × RollingScore + 0.30 × 2026 standardised score + 0.12 × (24 - AgeDecimal)
For players with rolling AFL output but no 2026 senior sample, I used 0.00 for the 2026 leg. If age was missing, I used 21.5 as the class-average fallback.

Redraft	Player	Original Pick	Club	Position	2026 Rank	Rolling Rank	Pot Score	Move
1	Nick Watson	5	Hawthorn	Gen. Forward	13	81	1.752	+4
2	Joel Freijah	45	Western Bulldogs	Mid-Forward	71	96	1.270	+43
3	Harley Reid	1	West Coast	Midfielder	42	124	1.259	-2
4	Shaun Mannagh	36	Geelong	Gen. Forward	28	46	1.012	+32
5	Logan Morris	31	Brisbane	Key Forward	123	155	0.821	+26
6	Archie Roberts	54	Essendon	Gen. Defender	92	295	0.647	+48
7	Lawson Humphries	63	Geelong	Gen. Defender	87	190	0.586	+56
8	Darcy Wilson	18	St Kilda	Mid-Forward	100	350	0.570	+10
9	Phoenix Gothard	12	GWS	Gen. Forward	140	258	0.565	+3
10	Hugo Garcia	50	St Kilda	Midfielder	66	591	0.514	+40
11	Harvey Thomas	59	GWS	Midfielder	135	449	0.439	+48
12	Connor O’Sullivan	11	Geelong	Key Defender	170	302	0.416	-1
13	Ryley Sanders	6	Western Bulldogs	Midfielder	117	492	0.381	-7
14	George Stevens	58	Geelong	Midfielder	—	260	0.376	+44
15	Tew Jiath	37	Collingwood	Gen. Defender	—	390	0.272	+22
16	Daniel Curtin	8	Adelaide	Midfielder	267	290	0.261	-8
17	Colby McKercher	2	North Melbourne	Gen. Forward	273	301	0.260	-15
18	Will Graham	26	Gold Coast	Mid-Forward	351	367	0.168	+8
19	Jake Rogers	14	Gold Coast	Gen. Forward	200	714	0.073	-5
20	Kane McAuliffe	40	Richmond	Midfielder	250	663	0.061	+20
21	Jordan Croft	15	Western Bulldogs	Key Forward	427	345	0.042	-6
22	William McCabe	19	Hawthorn	Key Forward	—	529	0.033	-3
23	Cooper Simpson	35	Fremantle	Gen. Defender	—	761	0.019	+12
24	Arie Schoenmaker	62	St Kilda	Gen. Defender	—	796	-0.012	+38
25	Nate Caddy	10	Essendon	Key Forward	260	786	-0.016	-15
26	Clay Hall	38	West Coast	Midfielder	—	803	-0.020	+12
27	Charlie Edwards	21	Adelaide	Midfielder	—	547	-0.049	-6
28	Luamon Lual	39	Essendon	Midfielder	—	854	-0.077	+11
29	Billy Wilson	34	Carlton	Gen. Defender	370	718	-0.085	+5
30	Bodie Ryan	46	Hawthorn	Gen. Defender	434	563	-0.089	+16

Biggest risers

Player	Original Pick	Redraft	Move
Lawson Humphries	63	7	+56
Archie Roberts	54	6	+48
Harvey Thomas	59	11	+48
Joel Freijah	45	2	+43
Hugo Garcia	50	10	+40
Arie Schoenmaker	62	24	+38
Shaun Mannagh	36	4	+32
Logan Morris	31	5	+26

Biggest slides among early picks

Player	Original Pick	Redraft	Move
Jed Walter	3	44	-41
Zane Duursma	4	42	-38
Caleb Windsor	7	31	-24
Colby McKercher	2	17	-15
Nate Caddy	10	25	-15

Clean top 10 redraft

Pick	Player
1	Nick Watson
2	Joel Freijah
3	Harley Reid
4	Shaun Mannagh
5	Logan Morris
6	Archie Roberts
7	Lawson Humphries
8	Darcy Wilson
9	Phoenix Gothard
10	Hugo Garcia

Nick Watson goes pick 1. He has the strongest 2026 rank from the class and with a clear lead.

Freijah at pick 2 is the WTF result. Pick 45 to redraft pick 2. Huge steal.

Harley Reid still stays top 3. He is not being punished badly; he just gets passed by Watson and Freijah in my model.

Mannagh is the mature-age chaos case. Age-potential penalises him because he is 29, but his 2026 output is so strong he still lands 4th.

Logan Morris at 5 is the key forward pick from this draft right now.

Huge value after picks 30: Morris, Mannagh, Freijah, Roberts, Humphries, Garcia and Thomas. Geelong killed it.


2023 Draft Club Rankings - Age-Potential Redraft Blend

Rank	Club	Main Reason
1	Geelong	Best overall haul: Mannagh, Humphries, O’Sullivan, Stevens
2	Western Bulldogs	Freijah at pick 45 looks like the biggest theft.
3	Hawthorn	Watson goes pick 1 in the redraft model
4	St Kilda	Strong value from Wilson, Garcia and Schoenmaker
5	GWS	Gothard and Harvey Thomas both beat draft position
6	Brisbane	Logan Morris at pick 31 is a major win
7	Essendon	Archie Roberts at pick 54 is excellent value
8	West Coast	Harley Reid still top 3, but less depth around him so far

Best clubs by model value

Rank	Club	Picks	Top 10 Redraft	Top 20 Redraft	Positive Value	Main Hits
1	Geelong	6	2	4	2.390	Mannagh, Humphries, O’Sullivan, Stevens
2	Hawthorn	4	1	1	1.785	Watson
3	Western Bulldogs	5	1	2	1.693	Freijah, Sanders
4	West Coast	4	1	1	1.259	Harley Reid
5	St Kilda	5	2	2	1.085	Wilson, Garcia
6	GWS	4	1	2	1.005	Gothard, Harvey Thomas
7	Brisbane	4	1	1	0.821	Logan Morris
8	Essendon	3	1	1	0.647	Archie Roberts

Best clubs by draft efficiency

Rank	Club	Surplus Score	Why
1	Geelong	+138	Mannagh at 36, Humphries at 63, Stevens at 58
2	St Kilda	+75	Darcy Wilson and Hugo Garcia both look like strong hits
3	Brisbane	+45	Logan Morris at 31 is a big win
4	Essendon	+44	Archie Roberts at 54 is excellent value
5	Western Bulldogs	+40	Freijah at 45 is the draft steal so far
6	GWS	+34	Gothard and Harvey Thomas both beat draft position
7	Hawthorn	+27	Watson is elite, but pick 5 already carried high expectation
8	Richmond	+25	McAuliffe helps, but not a huge haul yet

Club-by-club read

1. Geelong

Best highway robbery.

They got:

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Shaun Mannagh	36	4
Lawson Humphries	63	7
Connor O’Sullivan	11	12
George Stevens	58	14

That is ridiculous value. Mannagh being mature-age distorts the “youth prospect” angle a bit, but even if you discount him, Humphries at 63 and Stevens at 58 is excellent late-draft fishing.

2. Western Bulldogs

The Dogs are right near the top because of Joel Freijah.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Joel Freijah	45	2
Ryley Sanders	6	13
Jordan Croft	15	21

Freijah at pick 45 is probably the biggest steal in the class under this model. Tiny pick, big output, serious two-way profile.

3. Hawthorn

Hawthorn probably got the best individual player.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Nick Watson	5	1
Will McCabe	19	22
Bodie Ryan	46	30
Calsher Dear	56	46

Watson as the model’s pick 1 is a huge tick. The only reason Hawthorn is not clear #1 as a club is because the rest of the haul is still more speculative.

4. St Kilda

Very good value spread.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Darcy Wilson	18	8
Hugo Garcia	50	10
Arie Schoenmaker	62	24

Wilson at 18 is good. Garcia at 50 is the real little gold nugget in the floorboards.

5. GWS

Quietly strong.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Phoenix Gothard	12	9
Harvey Thomas	59	11

Gothard is tracking above his draft slot. Harvey Thomas at 59 is great value.

 

[Yoda_]

I am sorry if you felt like I was shitting on you, I was actually curious.

I don't really agree with Roberts being outstanding though, he is a great fantasy player and a great stat sheet player, but doesn't especially do a lot in my opinion.

How does the model / does the model value possession location, metres gained per disposal/kick/hb, threat, retention, kick ins, hb receives etc.? He's a guy that racks up almost all of his touches in the back half of the ground, doesn't especially contribute to scoring, doesn't contribute much defensively, etc. which can all be found in the stats.

Robertsl
10th in metres gained
1st in total disposals
11th in total rebound 50s
12th total marks
1st in effective disposals (per game)


he is going a bit better than most think or wish to acknowledge. I wouldn't be taking him number 1 however he is still clearly a top 5 player form this draft

 

[Sydney Kicker]

2023 National Draft redraft - age-potential model

Formula:

Age-Potential Score =
0.70 × RollingScore + 0.30 × 2026 standardised score + 0.12 × (24 - AgeDecimal)
For players with rolling AFL output but no 2026 senior sample, I used 0.00 for the 2026 leg. If age was missing, I used 21.5 as the class-average fallback.

Redraft	Player	Original Pick	Club	Position	2026 Rank	Rolling Rank	Pot Score	Move
1	Nick Watson	5	Hawthorn	Gen. Forward	13	81	1.752	+4
2	Joel Freijah	45	Western Bulldogs	Mid-Forward	71	96	1.270	+43
3	Harley Reid	1	West Coast	Midfielder	42	124	1.259	-2
4	Shaun Mannagh	36	Geelong	Gen. Forward	28	46	1.012	+32
5	Logan Morris	31	Brisbane	Key Forward	123	155	0.821	+26
6	Archie Roberts	54	Essendon	Gen. Defender	92	295	0.647	+48
7	Lawson Humphries	63	Geelong	Gen. Defender	87	190	0.586	+56
8	Darcy Wilson	18	St Kilda	Mid-Forward	100	350	0.570	+10
9	Phoenix Gothard	12	GWS	Gen. Forward	140	258	0.565	+3
10	Hugo Garcia	50	St Kilda	Midfielder	66	591	0.514	+40
11	Harvey Thomas	59	GWS	Midfielder	135	449	0.439	+48
12	Connor O’Sullivan	11	Geelong	Key Defender	170	302	0.416	-1
13	Ryley Sanders	6	Western Bulldogs	Midfielder	117	492	0.381	-7
14	George Stevens	58	Geelong	Midfielder	—	260	0.376	+44
15	Tew Jiath	37	Collingwood	Gen. Defender	—	390	0.272	+22
16	Daniel Curtin	8	Adelaide	Midfielder	267	290	0.261	-8
17	Colby McKercher	2	North Melbourne	Gen. Forward	273	301	0.260	-15
18	Will Graham	26	Gold Coast	Mid-Forward	351	367	0.168	+8
19	Jake Rogers	14	Gold Coast	Gen. Forward	200	714	0.073	-5
20	Kane McAuliffe	40	Richmond	Midfielder	250	663	0.061	+20
21	Jordan Croft	15	Western Bulldogs	Key Forward	427	345	0.042	-6
22	William McCabe	19	Hawthorn	Key Forward	—	529	0.033	-3
23	Cooper Simpson	35	Fremantle	Gen. Defender	—	761	0.019	+12
24	Arie Schoenmaker	62	St Kilda	Gen. Defender	—	796	-0.012	+38
25	Nate Caddy	10	Essendon	Key Forward	260	786	-0.016	-15
26	Clay Hall	38	West Coast	Midfielder	—	803	-0.020	+12
27	Charlie Edwards	21	Adelaide	Midfielder	—	547	-0.049	-6
28	Luamon Lual	39	Essendon	Midfielder	—	854	-0.077	+11
29	Billy Wilson	34	Carlton	Gen. Defender	370	718	-0.085	+5
30	Bodie Ryan	46	Hawthorn	Gen. Defender	434	563	-0.089	+16

Biggest risers

Player	Original Pick	Redraft	Move
Lawson Humphries	63	7	+56
Archie Roberts	54	6	+48
Harvey Thomas	59	11	+48
Joel Freijah	45	2	+43
Hugo Garcia	50	10	+40
Arie Schoenmaker	62	24	+38
Shaun Mannagh	36	4	+32
Logan Morris	31	5	+26

Biggest slides among early picks

Player	Original Pick	Redraft	Move
Jed Walter	3	44	-41
Zane Duursma	4	42	-38
Caleb Windsor	7	31	-24
Colby McKercher	2	17	-15
Nate Caddy	10	25	-15

Clean top 10 redraft

Pick	Player
1	Nick Watson
2	Joel Freijah
3	Harley Reid
4	Shaun Mannagh
5	Logan Morris
6	Archie Roberts
7	Lawson Humphries
8	Darcy Wilson
9	Phoenix Gothard
10	Hugo Garcia

Nick Watson goes pick 1. He has the strongest 2026 rank from the class and with a clear lead.

Freijah at pick 2 is the WTF result. Pick 45 to redraft pick 2. Huge steal.

Harley Reid still stays top 3. He is not being punished badly; he just gets passed by Watson and Freijah in my model.

Mannagh is the mature-age chaos case. Age-potential penalises him because he is 29, but his 2026 output is so strong he still lands 4th.

Logan Morris at 5 is the key forward pick from this draft right now.

Huge value after picks 30: Morris, Mannagh, Freijah, Roberts, Humphries, Garcia and Thomas. Geelong killed it.


2023 Draft Club Rankings - Age-Potential Redraft Blend

Rank	Club	Main Reason
1	Geelong	Best overall haul: Mannagh, Humphries, O’Sullivan, Stevens
2	Western Bulldogs	Freijah at pick 45 looks like the biggest theft.
3	Hawthorn	Watson goes pick 1 in the redraft model
4	St Kilda	Strong value from Wilson, Garcia and Schoenmaker
5	GWS	Gothard and Harvey Thomas both beat draft position
6	Brisbane	Logan Morris at pick 31 is a major win
7	Essendon	Archie Roberts at pick 54 is excellent value
8	West Coast	Harley Reid still top 3, but less depth around him so far

Best clubs by model value

Rank	Club	Picks	Top 10 Redraft	Top 20 Redraft	Positive Value	Main Hits
1	Geelong	6	2	4	2.390	Mannagh, Humphries, O’Sullivan, Stevens
2	Hawthorn	4	1	1	1.785	Watson
3	Western Bulldogs	5	1	2	1.693	Freijah, Sanders
4	West Coast	4	1	1	1.259	Harley Reid
5	St Kilda	5	2	2	1.085	Wilson, Garcia
6	GWS	4	1	2	1.005	Gothard, Harvey Thomas
7	Brisbane	4	1	1	0.821	Logan Morris
8	Essendon	3	1	1	0.647	Archie Roberts

Best clubs by draft efficiency

Rank	Club	Surplus Score	Why
1	Geelong	+138	Mannagh at 36, Humphries at 63, Stevens at 58
2	St Kilda	+75	Darcy Wilson and Hugo Garcia both look like strong hits
3	Brisbane	+45	Logan Morris at 31 is a big win
4	Essendon	+44	Archie Roberts at 54 is excellent value
5	Western Bulldogs	+40	Freijah at 45 is the draft steal so far
6	GWS	+34	Gothard and Harvey Thomas both beat draft position
7	Hawthorn	+27	Watson is elite, but pick 5 already carried high expectation
8	Richmond	+25	McAuliffe helps, but not a huge haul yet

Club-by-club read

1. Geelong

Best highway robbery.

They got:

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Shaun Mannagh	36	4
Lawson Humphries	63	7
Connor O’Sullivan	11	12
George Stevens	58	14

That is ridiculous value. Mannagh being mature-age distorts the “youth prospect” angle a bit, but even if you discount him, Humphries at 63 and Stevens at 58 is excellent late-draft fishing.

2. Western Bulldogs

The Dogs are right near the top because of Joel Freijah.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Joel Freijah	45	2
Ryley Sanders	6	13
Jordan Croft	15	21

Freijah at pick 45 is probably the biggest steal in the class under this model. Tiny pick, big output, serious two-way profile.

3. Hawthorn

Hawthorn probably got the best individual player.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Nick Watson	5	1
Will McCabe	19	22
Bodie Ryan	46	30
Calsher Dear	56	46

Watson as the model’s pick 1 is a huge tick. The only reason Hawthorn is not clear #1 as a club is because the rest of the haul is still more speculative.

4. St Kilda

Very good value spread.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Darcy Wilson	18	8
Hugo Garcia	50	10
Arie Schoenmaker	62	24

Wilson at 18 is good. Garcia at 50 is the real little gold nugget in the floorboards.

5. GWS

Quietly strong.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Phoenix Gothard	12	9
Harvey Thomas	59	11

Gothard is tracking above his draft slot. Harvey Thomas at 59 is great value.

There seems to be some glaring outliers in your model.

Will McCabe redraft rank is 22 while Clasher Dear is 46? These seem the wrong way round. McCabe has only played one senior game while Dear has a good body of work, admittedly mainly from 2 seasons ago.

Schoenmaker ahead of Nate Caddy? Schoenmaker has been delisted.

Tew Jaith (1 senior game) ahead of McKercher?

 

[danster168]

Watson not elite huh?

yeah, got this one wrong

tholstrup had his measure though

 

[RCAB]

There seems to be some glaring outliers in your model.

Will McCabe redraft rank is 22 while Clasher Dear is 46? These seem the wrong way round. McCabe has only played one senior game while Dear has a good body of work, admittedly mainly from 2 seasons ago.

Schoenmaker ahead of Nate Caddy? Schoenmaker has been delisted.

Tew Jaith (1 senior game) ahead of McKercher?

Fair.

But did St Kilda make the right decision on Schoenmaker?

Also, young player redrafts are always low-sample. If we remove everyone with limited AFL games, there’s barely a draft class left to compare.

Will re-run later in the year when the sample is less noisy.

 

[Orange crush]

Fonti at pick 44 needs more love …. Shaping very well as a smooth moving hb

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

2023 National Draft redraft - age-potential model

Formula:

Age-Potential Score =
0.70 × RollingScore + 0.30 × 2026 standardised score + 0.12 × (24 - AgeDecimal)
For players with rolling AFL output but no 2026 senior sample, I used 0.00 for the 2026 leg. If age was missing, I used 21.5 as the class-average fallback.

Redraft	Player	Original Pick	Club	Position	2026 Rank	Rolling Rank	Pot Score	Move
1	Nick Watson	5	Hawthorn	Gen. Forward	13	81	1.752	+4
2	Joel Freijah	45	Western Bulldogs	Mid-Forward	71	96	1.270	+43
3	Harley Reid	1	West Coast	Midfielder	42	124	1.259	-2
4	Shaun Mannagh	36	Geelong	Gen. Forward	28	46	1.012	+32
5	Logan Morris	31	Brisbane	Key Forward	123	155	0.821	+26
6	Archie Roberts	54	Essendon	Gen. Defender	92	295	0.647	+48
7	Lawson Humphries	63	Geelong	Gen. Defender	87	190	0.586	+56
8	Darcy Wilson	18	St Kilda	Mid-Forward	100	350	0.570	+10
9	Phoenix Gothard	12	GWS	Gen. Forward	140	258	0.565	+3
10	Hugo Garcia	50	St Kilda	Midfielder	66	591	0.514	+40
11	Harvey Thomas	59	GWS	Midfielder	135	449	0.439	+48
12	Connor O’Sullivan	11	Geelong	Key Defender	170	302	0.416	-1
13	Ryley Sanders	6	Western Bulldogs	Midfielder	117	492	0.381	-7
14	George Stevens	58	Geelong	Midfielder	—	260	0.376	+44
15	Tew Jiath	37	Collingwood	Gen. Defender	—	390	0.272	+22
16	Daniel Curtin	8	Adelaide	Midfielder	267	290	0.261	-8
17	Colby McKercher	2	North Melbourne	Gen. Forward	273	301	0.260	-15
18	Will Graham	26	Gold Coast	Mid-Forward	351	367	0.168	+8
19	Jake Rogers	14	Gold Coast	Gen. Forward	200	714	0.073	-5
20	Kane McAuliffe	40	Richmond	Midfielder	250	663	0.061	+20
21	Jordan Croft	15	Western Bulldogs	Key Forward	427	345	0.042	-6
22	William McCabe	19	Hawthorn	Key Forward	—	529	0.033	-3
23	Cooper Simpson	35	Fremantle	Gen. Defender	—	761	0.019	+12
24	Arie Schoenmaker	62	St Kilda	Gen. Defender	—	796	-0.012	+38
25	Nate Caddy	10	Essendon	Key Forward	260	786	-0.016	-15
26	Clay Hall	38	West Coast	Midfielder	—	803	-0.020	+12
27	Charlie Edwards	21	Adelaide	Midfielder	—	547	-0.049	-6
28	Luamon Lual	39	Essendon	Midfielder	—	854	-0.077	+11
29	Billy Wilson	34	Carlton	Gen. Defender	370	718	-0.085	+5
30	Bodie Ryan	46	Hawthorn	Gen. Defender	434	563	-0.089	+16

Biggest risers

Player	Original Pick	Redraft	Move
Lawson Humphries	63	7	+56
Archie Roberts	54	6	+48
Harvey Thomas	59	11	+48
Joel Freijah	45	2	+43
Hugo Garcia	50	10	+40
Arie Schoenmaker	62	24	+38
Shaun Mannagh	36	4	+32
Logan Morris	31	5	+26

Biggest slides among early picks

Player	Original Pick	Redraft	Move
Jed Walter	3	44	-41
Zane Duursma	4	42	-38
Caleb Windsor	7	31	-24
Colby McKercher	2	17	-15
Nate Caddy	10	25	-15

Clean top 10 redraft

Pick	Player
1	Nick Watson
2	Joel Freijah
3	Harley Reid
4	Shaun Mannagh
5	Logan Morris
6	Archie Roberts
7	Lawson Humphries
8	Darcy Wilson
9	Phoenix Gothard
10	Hugo Garcia

Nick Watson goes pick 1. He has the strongest 2026 rank from the class and with a clear lead.

Freijah at pick 2 is the WTF result. Pick 45 to redraft pick 2. Huge steal.

Harley Reid still stays top 3. He is not being punished badly; he just gets passed by Watson and Freijah in my model.

Mannagh is the mature-age chaos case. Age-potential penalises him because he is 29, but his 2026 output is so strong he still lands 4th.

Logan Morris at 5 is the key forward pick from this draft right now.

Huge value after picks 30: Morris, Mannagh, Freijah, Roberts, Humphries, Garcia and Thomas. Geelong killed it.


2023 Draft Club Rankings - Age-Potential Redraft Blend

Rank	Club	Main Reason
1	Geelong	Best overall haul: Mannagh, Humphries, O’Sullivan, Stevens
2	Western Bulldogs	Freijah at pick 45 looks like the biggest theft.
3	Hawthorn	Watson goes pick 1 in the redraft model
4	St Kilda	Strong value from Wilson, Garcia and Schoenmaker
5	GWS	Gothard and Harvey Thomas both beat draft position
6	Brisbane	Logan Morris at pick 31 is a major win
7	Essendon	Archie Roberts at pick 54 is excellent value
8	West Coast	Harley Reid still top 3, but less depth around him so far

Best clubs by model value

Rank	Club	Picks	Top 10 Redraft	Top 20 Redraft	Positive Value	Main Hits
1	Geelong	6	2	4	2.390	Mannagh, Humphries, O’Sullivan, Stevens
2	Hawthorn	4	1	1	1.785	Watson
3	Western Bulldogs	5	1	2	1.693	Freijah, Sanders
4	West Coast	4	1	1	1.259	Harley Reid
5	St Kilda	5	2	2	1.085	Wilson, Garcia
6	GWS	4	1	2	1.005	Gothard, Harvey Thomas
7	Brisbane	4	1	1	0.821	Logan Morris
8	Essendon	3	1	1	0.647	Archie Roberts

Best clubs by draft efficiency

Rank	Club	Surplus Score	Why
1	Geelong	+138	Mannagh at 36, Humphries at 63, Stevens at 58
2	St Kilda	+75	Darcy Wilson and Hugo Garcia both look like strong hits
3	Brisbane	+45	Logan Morris at 31 is a big win
4	Essendon	+44	Archie Roberts at 54 is excellent value
5	Western Bulldogs	+40	Freijah at 45 is the draft steal so far
6	GWS	+34	Gothard and Harvey Thomas both beat draft position
7	Hawthorn	+27	Watson is elite, but pick 5 already carried high expectation
8	Richmond	+25	McAuliffe helps, but not a huge haul yet

Club-by-club read

1. Geelong

Best highway robbery.

They got:

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Shaun Mannagh	36	4
Lawson Humphries	63	7
Connor O’Sullivan	11	12
George Stevens	58	14

That is ridiculous value. Mannagh being mature-age distorts the “youth prospect” angle a bit, but even if you discount him, Humphries at 63 and Stevens at 58 is excellent late-draft fishing.

2. Western Bulldogs

The Dogs are right near the top because of Joel Freijah.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Joel Freijah	45	2
Ryley Sanders	6	13
Jordan Croft	15	21

Freijah at pick 45 is probably the biggest steal in the class under this model. Tiny pick, big output, serious two-way profile.

3. Hawthorn

Hawthorn probably got the best individual player.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Nick Watson	5	1
Will McCabe	19	22
Bodie Ryan	46	30
Calsher Dear	56	46

Watson as the model’s pick 1 is a huge tick. The only reason Hawthorn is not clear #1 as a club is because the rest of the haul is still more speculative.

4. St Kilda

Very good value spread.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Darcy Wilson	18	8
Hugo Garcia	50	10
Arie Schoenmaker	62	24

Wilson at 18 is good. Garcia at 50 is the real little gold nugget in the floorboards.

5. GWS

Quietly strong.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Phoenix Gothard	12	9
Harvey Thomas	59	11

Gothard is tracking above his draft slot. Harvey Thomas at 59 is great value.

I like the analysis, just a couple of issues with Geelong. Stevens and Mannagh are obviously unique cases. Mannagh is based on him being likely to play at least five fewer seasons in his AFL career than others in the class, while Stevens is based on only playing two games, one of which he was almost BOG and yet, he's no certainty to play future games, due to clear deficiencies at AFL level.

Mitch Edwards however, our #1 ruck at the moment, was also taken in 2023, along with Oli Wiltshire, who hasn't done anything overly special, but is clearly ahead of Stevens in terms of getting an AFL game as it stands.

 

[Orange crush]

I like the analysis, just a couple of issues with Geelong. Stevens and Mannagh are obviously unique cases. Mannagh is based on him being likely to play at least five fewer seasons in his AFL career than others in the class, while Stevens is based on only playing two games, one of which he was almost BOG and yet, he's no certainty to play future games, due to clear deficiencies at AFL level.

Mitch Edwards however, our #1 ruck at the moment, was also taken in 2023, along with Oli Wiltshire, who hasn't done anything overly special, but is clearly ahead of Stevens in terms of getting an AFL game as it stands.

The ranking of Tew Jiath should tell you the whole system is pure fantasy

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Fair.

But did St Kilda make the right decision on Schoenmaker?

Also, young player redrafts are always low-sample. If we remove everyone with limited AFL games, there’s barely a draft class left to compare.

Will re-run later in the year when the sample is less noisy.

I think the market has spoken. No other club has picked him up.

 

[WN123]

Robertsl
10th in metres gained
1st in total disposals
11th in total rebound 50s
12th total marks
1st in effective disposals (per game)


he is going a bit better than most think or wish to acknowledge. I wouldn't be taking him number 1 however he is still clearly a top 5 player form this draft

Seems to be a standard thing on Bigfooty. Anybody who gets a lot of the ball clearly doesn’t have any hurt factor. Used to say the same thing about Sheezel.

 

[lordbob]

Thats fine. Watson can become the shots at goal king. It's his job to kick goals, and not become the shots at goal stat king. Missing goals, especially easy ones, is a clanger/turnover. It's nothing to be proud of. I think he'll become a decent player but I don't see elite AA calibre talent. And that's fine, I don't see AA calibre talent in Windsor either.

You might want to get your eyes checked out.

 

[Pencil case]

I can definitely see Harley Reid being clear #1 at this trajectory and by next season could be top 10 all round

Depends if he can stay consistent and put it all together.

At the moment there’s about 5 others I’d take ahead of him in a redraft, but like you said he could definitely end up the best.

 

[Pencil case]

2. Western Bulldogs

The Dogs are right near the top because of Joel Freijah.

Player	Pick	Redraft Rank
Joel Freijah	45	2
Ryley Sanders	6	13
Jordan Croft	15	21

Freijah at pick 45 is probably the biggest steal in the class under this model. Tiny pick, big output, serious two-way profile.

Sanders wouldn’t make it past pick 5 you’d think based on his form this year.

Likewise I think Freijah has slid slightly from pick 1 contender with Morris, to about that 5-10 range.

 

[Warhorse]

I have been working on a player ratings projects which I outlined in the statistics forum. Here is the list of players from 2023 ranked by my player rating based on the four models for 2026. Lawson Humphries has been a huge improver.

2023 National Draft — AFLIA Top 20 in 2026
Players filtered by draft_year = 2023 and draft_type = nationalDraft.
Table uses 2026 AFLIA average to Round 11.

If you want details how the player ratings work, go to the statistics forum and read my thread.


Stay at home forwards generally have high forward totals but not elsewhere but CAN and DO still achieve very high scores but are never consistent enough.

Thread 'Peak17 Ratings - My new stat project'

Wednesday at 10:00 PM

​

I’ve been working on a player rating system that tries to separate three things that often get mashed together in normal football discussion:

1. Who has produced the strongest body of work?
2. Who has the highest demonstrated ceiling?
3. Who is currently trending up or down?

The system is built around AFL player-game data from 2024 onwards. The current outputs use a rolling 46-game window, which roughly captures the modern two-season sample while still moving every week as teams play. If a player misses a game, the window still moves. That matters, because...

• peak17
• Replies: 4
• Forum: Football Statistics

• 

2023 National Draft — Top 20 by 2026 AFLIA Average

Rank	Player	Team	Position	Draft Pick	Games	AFLIA Avg	Gain Avg	Territory Avg	Forward Avg	Defence Avg
1	archie roberts	Essendon	MEDIUM_DEFENDER	54	11	4.24	1.29	1.83	0.11	1.01
2	harley reid	West Coast	MIDFIELDER	1	11	2.91	1.58	0.95	0.82	-0.43
3	lawson humphries	Geelong	MEDIUM_DEFENDER	63	11	2.46	0.09	1.26	0.17	0.94
4	kane mcauliffe	Richmond	MIDFIELDER	40	6	1.78	0.10	0.94	0.09	0.65
5	ryley sanders	Western Bulldogs	MIDFIELDER	6	10	1.50	1.54	-0.25	0.26	-0.06
6	hugo garcia	St Kilda	MIDFIELDER	50	11	1.41	1.19	0.13	0.52	-0.43
7	darcy wilson	St Kilda	MIDFIELDER_FORWARD	18	10	1.13	0.01	0.45	0.64	0.03
8	koltyn tholstrup	Melbourne	MEDIUM_DEFENDER	13	11	1.04	0.03	0.65	-0.28	0.65
9	harvey thomas	GWS	MIDFIELDER	59	11	0.97	0.50	0.10	0.23	0.13
10	joel freijah	Western Bulldogs	MIDFIELDER_FORWARD	45	11	0.96	0.49	-0.03	0.51	-0.01
11	connor osullivan	Geelong	KEY_DEFENDER	11	10	0.90	-0.03	0.17	-0.69	1.45
12	joseph fonti	GWS	MEDIUM_DEFENDER	44	10	0.80	-0.02	0.29	-0.65	1.17
13	shaun mannagh	Geelong	MEDIUM_FORWARD	36	11	0.57	-0.35	0.65	1.01	-0.74
14	colby mckercher	North Melbourne	MEDIUM_DEFENDER	2	11	0.46	0.01	0.66	0.19	-0.41
15	nick watson	Hawthorn	MEDIUM_FORWARD	5	11	0.43	-0.04	-0.08	1.02	-0.47
16	caleb windsor	Melbourne	MIDFIELDER	7	10	0.12	-0.15	0.37	0.10	-0.20
17	logan morris	Brisbane	KEY_FORWARD	31	10	-0.32	-0.62	-0.40	1.65	-0.96
18	nate caddy	Essendon	KEY_FORWARD	10	10	-0.67	-1.05	-0.01	1.10	-0.70
19	phoenix gothard	GWS	MEDIUM_FORWARD	12	11	-0.75	-0.28	-0.41	0.59	-0.66
20	charlie edwards	Adelaide	MEDIUM_DEFENDER	21	2	-0.81	-0.57	0.44	-0.37	-0.30

Your model needs an overhaul. Its dogshit if Watson is 15

 

[JHF1870]

Your model needs an overhaul. Its dogshit if Watson is 15

He did say it was "2026" scores on his model. Not a re ranking

 

[RCAB]

He did say it was "2026" scores on his model. Not a re ranking

I think you'll find nobody has Watson 15th amongst that cohort in 2026.

My model has Watson first in that group, and in the top 10 in the AFL in 2026. Where does he sit in your model JHF1870 in 2026.

 

[lordbob]

He did say it was "2026" scores on his model. Not a re ranking

If its for 2026, then its an even worse take. Watson is elite AA lock so far this year.