List Mgmt. 2023 Trade & List Management Thread

[King Corey]

Edit: will update if ppl happy for this to sticky

Ok starting the hit list of names mentioned in any rumour as linked to us for 2023 trade period.

• Mac Andrew
• Hunter Clark
• Zac Fisher
• Sam Flanders
• Mitch Georgiades
• Liam Henry
• Dougal Howard
• Lewis Melican
• Jack Silvagni
• Dylan Stephens
• Adam Tomlinson

 

[The Nostradamus]

NORTH NOW ‘SMOKING THE PIPE’ AS PATH TO MIND-BLOWING DRAFT HAND EMERGES

Maybe we should’ve taken more notice of Eagles list boss Rohan O’Brien earlier this month, when he suggested: “We may not even end up with it (Pick 1).”

A series of dramatic Round 23 results blew up an already nuts finals race – in particular West Coast’s shock defeat of the Western Bulldogs, which secured September berths for both St Kilda and Sydney.

But just as intriguing on Sunday was the fact the Eagles – who’d occupied 18th spot for 13 consecutive rounds – leapfrogged fellow cellar dwellers North Melbourne on the AFL ladder.

Subsequently – or consequently, depending on your viewpoint – the Kangaroos now hold Pick 1 with one home and away round left.

“Put tanking to bed forever,” Melbourne legend Garry Lyon told Fox Footy. “The No.1 pick has just wandered off from the West Coast Eagles right now and it’s in North Melbourne’s hands.

“Well done to the West Coast Eagles. You wonder where it’s been.

“Now the Kangaroos are sitting back smoking the pipe.”

The ladder flip is a dramatic late twist ahead of one of the more intriguing first rounds of a draft in many years.

As West Coast sat on the bottom of the ladder for months, the footy industry was bubbling with speculation around how willing star Bendigo Pioneers prospect Harley Reid – rated by most AFL recruiters as this year’s No. 1 draft prospect – would be to start his career in an Eagles jumper. And, subsequently, how willing West Coast would be to trade its first pick, with rival clubs suggesting the Eagles might be prepared to slide down the order but only if they could ‘guarantee’ top WA prospect Daniel Curtin would still be available at their new pick.

The sense among scouts spoken to by foxfooty.com.au has always that been Reid will be taken with Pick 1. Which club holds the pick come draft night, though, has remained less certain.

Now North Melbourne holds the first pick in the draft, as well as Port Adelaide’s first-rounder as a result of last year’s mega deal involving Jason Horne-Francis.

There are several layers to this significant development.

Firstly, it mightn’t be the only top-10 pick North will hold come late November. In fact there’s a scenario in which the club could have the first two picks in the draft.

It’s widely expected the Roos will lose key defender Ben McKay via free agency and, subsequently, be handed a compensation selection. Where that selection lands, though, would depend on the rival club offer McKay would sign.

If it was worthy of ‘Band 1’ compensation, the compo pick would be after North’s natural first-rounder. So, after the Round 23 results, that would be Pick 2.

Bonkers.

But complicating the AFL’s compensation call – and its secret herbs and spices free agency formula – is that North Melbourne is in the process of applying for a priority draft assistance this year, given it’s won just 11 of its past 81 games.

The Roos last year received one future second and one future third-round pick – which they had to trade – as part of an assistance package. But the more likely outcome, according to draft sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au, is the AFL will allow North to pre-list star Tasmanian midfield prospect Ryley Sanders, who the Kangaroos are hoping will be added to their Next Generation Academy after he recently his certificate of Aboriginality this year. Sanders, who kicked one goal from 35 disposals for Sandringham in the Coates Talent League on Saturday, is widely considered a prospect worthy of a top-10 selection.

So with North now holding Pick 1 instead of Pick 2 – plus the prospect of pre-listing a top-10 talent like Sanders – the McKay compensation pick could be an end-of-first-round or early second-round selection. After all, handing North Pick 2 instead of Pick 3 for losing McKay would be a far harder sell for the AFL.

But if the Kangaroos do ultimately get their hands on the first two picks of the draft, could they spoil West Coast’s plans and pinch Curtin from the WA-based club?

North Melbourne last month indicated it was keen to draft a key defender this year, with list boss Brady Rawlings telling members he was “aware we haven’t picked very tall over recent seasons”. And rival clubs, prior to this weekend, said they could see the Kangaroos taking Curtin with a top pick.

So could the Roos take Reid with Pick 1 and Curtin with Pick 2 – or Pick 3, if they put in a bid for star Suns academy prospect Jed Walter – and make West Coast ‘pay’ for its Round 23 win?

The AFL, last year, confirmed North Melbourne’s assistance package in mid-September. According to Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph, the league in the past has made decisions on priority picks deep in the finals series.


There’s still a long way to go.

But as it stands, there’s a way the Roos end up with Picks 1 and 2 and Sanders – and Reid would almost certainly remain in Victoria.

Hidden loser in finals-altering AFL blunder; boilover may gift North top TWO picks: Talking Pts

‘Everyone goes home happy’: Bold plan to reunite Dusty, Dimma at new club explained - Talking Pts

www.foxsports.com.au

should be picks 1-3 (if we lose McKay) instead of the cop out nga prelisting

A first round priority pick is what should happen

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Article was going fine until this point. This is the only real part of it the AFL has little choice over. If they think we won't ensure the financials work for a band 1 they are kidding themselves. The AFL doesn't get to choose on this one.

The don’t have to ‘sell’ anything. The other clubs have no say. Their ‘feelings’ are irrelevant. The efforts to conflate any McKay compensation with priority selections is entirely disingenuous and purposefully misleading. The fact they have occurred at the same time should have zero bearing on what is offered.
They need to apply the same parameters that they have before.

It’s that simple.

 

[My Left Foote]

It'd be hard for them to pull it off with straight faces.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

I'm not so sure about that, these guys look pretty serious to me.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

I'm not so sure about that, these guys look pretty serious to me.
View attachment 1780864

"Gettable - the shared Tinder profile of two dweebs".

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Would definitely enquire about Caleb Marchbank from the blues. Finally got his body right and is back playing in Carlton's best 22. OOC at the end of the year.

Bit of a dour defender, but he uses it well and often competes well against the bigger bodied key forwards.

Only risk is his injury history.

I think a combination of either one of Melican/Marchbank then rookie listing Ethan Phillips and taking a developing KPD draftee would go a long way to giving us some security in the back half.

 

[Roo202]

The don’t have to ‘sell’ anything. The other clubs have no say. Their ‘feelings’ are irrelevant. The efforts to conflate any McKay compensation with priority selections is entirely disingenuous and purposefully misleading. The fact they have occurred at the same time should have zero bearing on what is offered.
They need to apply the same parameters that they have before.

It’s that simple.

It actual sets a really bad precedent if they try and link FA comp and assistance. They are potentially saying that a top 3 comp pick is part comp, part assistance, so in the future, if a team doesn't need assistance, surely they can't have a high pick? What happens if in the next couple of years a team in the bottom two, that is just having a poor year, not the in any way in the conversation for assistance, loses a player to band one free agency, are they going to water down the compensation?

Just because we a likely losing a band one FA in the same year they almost certainly can't ignore that we are in need of proper assistance, shouldn't mean they are connected. Linking any assistance we possibly get to our FA comp is a bit like the poor kid who has a birthday near Christmas, this counts as your birthday AND Christmas present!

 

[Ball Dont Lie]

Would definitely enquire about Caleb Marchbank from the blues. Finally got his body right and is back playing in Carlton's best 22. OOC at the end of the year.

Bit of a dour defender, but he uses it well and often competes well against the bigger bodied key forwards.

Only risk is his injury history.

I think a combination of either one of Melican/Marchbank then rookie listing Ethan Phillips and taking a developing KPD draftee would go a long way to giving us some security in the back half.

If we are entertaining anything with GC I would be after Mac Andrews.

 

[Shinboner1]

Would definitely enquire about Caleb Marchbank from the blues. Finally got his body right and is back playing in Carlton's best 22. OOC at the end of the year.

Bit of a dour defender, but he uses it well and often competes well against the bigger bodied key forwards.

Only risk is his injury history.

I think a combination of either one of Melican/Marchbank then rookie listing Ethan Phillips and taking a developing KPD draftee would go a long way to giving us some security in the back half.

Marchbank won't be leaving

 

[Shinboner1]

If we are entertaining anything with GC I would be after Mac Andrews.

And flanders

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Marchbank won't be leaving

He won't be getting much $$$ at Carlton. We could easily offer him more.

 

[hoffseason gains]

Would definitely enquire about Caleb Marchbank from the blues. Finally got his body right and is back playing in Carlton's best 22. OOC at the end of the year.

Bit of a dour defender, but he uses it well and often competes well against the bigger bodied key forwards.

Only risk is his injury history.

I think a combination of either one of Melican/Marchbank then rookie listing Ethan Phillips and taking a developing KPD draftee would go a long way to giving us some security in the back half.

Baldwin has to be one we go after. Maybe a bit too similar to Dawson and Curtin in terms of role if we draft him, but they allow us to play a more modern backline.

 

[New_Roo]

Baldwin has to be one we go after. Maybe a bit too similar to Dawson and Curtin in terms of role if we draft him, but they allow us to play a more modern backline.

And he was dropped after the game against us too?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[shintemaster]

Just because we a likely losing a band one FA in the same year they almost certainly can't ignore that we are in need of proper assistance, shouldn't mean they are connected. Linking any assistance we possibly get to our FA comp is a bit like the poor kid who has a birthday near Christmas, this counts as your birthday AND Christmas present!

Speaking from personal experience we all know the rule book is that I get the best toys because I can combine them into a mega present. And so should it be for NMFC.

 

[chickenonachain]

One thing that worries me is the AFL go out of their way to screw us over on just about everything and I reckon they will be trying to do the same come this draft. I don’t know how they will do it but I have a bad feeling about this.

 

[giantroo]

 

[RHLK]

Haha, what's this bullsh:t about the AFL having to 'sell' anything?

Their MO is to announce whatever half-arsed or fully-arsed decision they've made, and everyone has to just suck it up.

 

[Chadwiko]

Can you post that article? Herald Sun website is utterly broken for me.

 

[leighlee13]

Can you post that article? Herald Sun website is utterly broken for me.

Wreck it Ralph: Every free agent — where is your club placed with its players​

Ben McKay is the biggest fish in the free agency pool, but a lot more players remain unsigned. Jon Ralph checks in on every free agent in the AFL and gives an update on their future.

Jon Ralph
@RalphyHeraldSun

August 21, 2023 - 1:50PM

Alastair Clarkson needs to call in every favour he has ever accumulated over 36 years in the AFL industry.
North Melbourne is close to securing the No.1 draft pick, but whether the Kangaroos also get pick 2 depends on the value of the hottest free agent left, Ben McKay.

Someone has to pay McKay up to $800,000 a season to trigger the first-round free agency compensation that would see that selection follow the No.1 overall pick.

Sydney, Port Adelaide and Essendon are all keen on defenders, but the Dons don’t believe McKay is worth that much.

The AFL has confirmed the Roos cannot top up the McKay salary to trigger first-round compo – clubs can only pay a portion of existing contracts in trades, not future deals.

So Clarkson has to plead and hope and cajole a rival into stumping up the cash.

How much exactly would the contract need to be?

Essendon secured first-round compensation for a three-year $750,000 deal for Joe Daniher in Brisbane, with the key forward then signing a two-year extension only a year later.

The AFL eventually ticked off that subsequent deal (which would have smoothed out the salary over five seasons), so surely there is a club that might follow a similar formula even as it skirts close to the league’s rules.

Under the AFL’s formula every player 25 and over has their salaries listed by the AFL, with a contract in the top 5 per cent earning first-round compensation for a free agency move.

Daniher’s deal was signed in 2020, so McKay’s salary might need to be over $800,000 given pay rises since that date.

On the same weekend as the Roos inherited the No.1 pick, Jesse Hogan annihilated Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (who, to be fair, got no help from his midfield) in a nine-goal performance.

Clarkson will have to hope an Essendon side that has given up six goals twice this year to Tom Hawkins might believe McKay’s price is worth it.

ADELAIDE​

Tom Doedee is the main concern with round 24 in coming days and he still hasn’t signed the club’s long-term offer.

Why wouldn’t he stay, given the Crows are going places, he has a nice little radio and TV side gig with Adelaide media and there is a clear role for him in the Crows defence.

Brisbane is the only confirmed suitor right now.

Matt Crouch would ideally stay in Adelaide but has played five excellent games in a row, enough to get a two-year deal at a club desperate for clearance power.

He surely cannot believe he is certain to remain in the first-choice midfield at Adelaide.

Rory Sloane has just signed a one-year deal, while Paul Seedsman has retired with concussion issues.

Tyler Brown has played 17 mostly excellent SANFL games, averaging 97 SuperCoach points and 22 possessions, so will hope for another one-year deal.

BRISBANE LIONS​

Daniel Rich is 33 and likely out of chances as the new breed come through, so will strongly consider retirement, while Dayne Zorko would believe he has another season in him despite turning 35 in February.

He is uncontracted, but his issues are body rather than form-related.

Nakia Cockatoo’s VFL form has been encouraging in 17 games, so he is hopeful of another one-year deal.

Rhys Mathieson missed six games mid-year with a hamstring issue but hasn’t played a single AFL game and hits free agency, so his future might be elsewhere.

Irish defender Darragh Joyce has played only five AFL games and none since round 6.

CARLTON​

There are teams in the AFL who need a clever mid-sized forward who can go into the centre square to relieve a first-choice ruckman.

Carlton just isn’t one of those sides.

So Jack Silvagni’s manager is assessing rival interest although it’s not out of the realms of possibility Carlton would re-sign him on a modest deal.

But if he can find a club like Richmond or Melbourne (if they trade Brodie Grundy) who will play him, it would be clever business to move on.

David Cuningham will be re-signed, Lachie Plowman is in trouble, Ed Curnow was the last man signed last year but has played 17 games (often as the sub), so might get one last year.

There is enough defensive depth that key back Sam Durdin might be nervous.

COLLINGWOOD​

Oleg Markov is a required player after being overlooked in the summer rookie draft for Oscar Steene then securing a one-year deal when Charlie Dean was injured again.

Despite his strong form it might only be a one-year deal, while Cooper Murley has kicked 13 goals in 18 games in the VFL as a free agent delisted last year then relisted by the Pies.

ESSENDON​

Darcy Parish wants to stay but also wants to get paid.

Which is entirely fair enough as a restricted free agent who has put together two seasons of excellent form.

Geelong’s interest seems to have cooled, so Parish might have to accept excellent rather than outrageous money.

It would be smart business for Essendon to re-sign him if they are truly keen on Ben McKay, given the McKay deal would neutralise any Parish free agency compensation if he departed.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will retire, and three goals in the past eight weeks in the VFL makes it harder to give him a farewell game against the Pies.

Dyson Heppell should sign another one-year deal after 12 weeks of consistently strong form in defence.

Will Snelling only has six goals in 14 AFL games but should be at the Hangar next year.

FREMANTLE​

Joel Hamling is the Dockers’ only free agent, finally fit after a horror injury run and keen to extend his career at a rival club given he is unlikely to win a new deal with the Dockers.

As revealed by the Herald Sun in March, Liam Henry, who is not a free agent, is considering his future, but he is the only real list issue as long as Sean Darcy signs a long-term pre-agency deal over summer.

GEELONG​

Isaac Smith timed his retirement perfectly instead of pushing on for one more year at a Cats outfit that knows it needs to play more kids.

Jon Ceglar’s injury-prone season means his two-year stint could come to a close while Sam Menegola wants to play on after knee issues and has put together six increasingly strong games.

That is likely to be at another club.

Tom Hawkins will sign on for another one-year deal, while Rhys Stanley is also on track to play on unless the Cats shock with a Sean Darcy-style ruck acquisition.

GOLD COAST​

Levi Casboult is footy’s great survivor, about to win a third season at the Suns after his strong career at Carlton.

Sam Day is only 30 and has averaged 2.2 goals in the VFL but the Suns might have enough key-position cover to moved gone past him.

Ditto for ex-Giants defender Jake Stein.

Connor Blakely and Charlie Constable were also brought in as cover and given Constable played only two senior games (rounds 1 and 2), Damien Hardwick might move on all of his free agents bar Casboult.

GWS GIANTS​

Daniel Lloyd can feel rightly proud to have eked out a solid AFL career before retiring last week, while Phil Davis was a foundation Giant who did so much to forge this club’s identity and also retired on Monday.

Lachie Keeffe continues to be a valuable role player who adds valuable depth and, while he is 33, the Giants should strongly consider handing him another season.

Matthew Flynn has had his thunder stolen by fellow ruckman Kieren Briggs and will have interest elsewhere, but there are plenty of back-up ruckmen looking for new homes in a crowded landscape.

He is averaging excellent numbers in the VFL – 16 possessions, 109 SuperCoach points, 4.4 clearances.

HAWTHORN​

Just the one free agent for the Hawks – Fergus Greene.

The former Bulldogs-listed player and VFL success story kicked 15 goals in 11 AFL games.

His VFL form is strong and unless they can find a foil for Mitch Lewis (trade target Jake Riccardi just re-signed at GWS) he’s valuable insurance for a young side.

MELBOURNE​

James Jordon is a free agent after being delisted and then relisted, and clubs including Essendon, Gold Coast and Sydney are interested.

The Demons want to re-sign him, but he would get a long-term deal and a more prominent role elsewhere.

Jake Melksham had 15 goals in nine games before a goalless past two games, then bounced back with 3.4 against Hawthorn.

He turns 33 in the next fortnight and would believe he can secure a one-year deal.

Michael Hibberd turns 34 in January, so his age is against him, but in 11 games he is shown he is still a tight-checking defender in an excellent backline, so he’s a chance to play on.

NORTH MELBOURNE​

If rivals only offer Ben McKay $700,000the Roos will match the bid, so they will be desperate for a bidding war between Sydney, Port Adelaide and Essendon to get his free agency deal to that magical threshold for first-round compensation (which under current ladder position would get them pick 2).

Jack Ziebell has just retired, Kayne Turner’s career would seem likely to come to a close despite 11 senior games, and Todd Goldstein is likely to sign one more single-season deal.

If he isn’t re-signed he will play on elsewhere as ruck cover.

Liam Shiels and Dan Howe are also free agents, so it is a Clarko call on Shiels who has played 16 reasonable games and provided key off-field leadership.

PORT ADELAIDE​

Scott Lycett will likely look elsewhere for a two-year deal as his $650,000 a season five-year deal expires.

Charlie Dixon will play on with a one-year deal yet to be brokered, while Travis Boak wants to play on and will be given the chance on a one-year deal.

Tom Jonas looks more likely to retire, especially if the Power can land another key defender, while Riley Bonner will have to wait for a new deal after 11 games in the AFL as a wingman but excellent SANFL form when he has been demoted to the lower level.

RICHMOND​

Kamdyn McIntosh is technically a free agent, but has hit a games-based trigger so will be at Punt Rd in 2024.

Free agents Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt just joined Robbie Tarrant in retirement, so $1 million or more of cap space will be freed up, although much of it will be swallowed up when Shai Bolton’s seven-figure deal kicks in next year.

Bigoa Nyuon is also a free agent after being delisted and relisted. He has played only one AFL game but after strong VFL form as a ruckman and defender he will be confident of another contract.

ST KILDA​

Mason Wood is a free agent, but has hit a games-based trigger that means he will be at RSEA Park for 2024.

Jade Gresham has been strongly linked to Carlton but that deal is not yet done, and if nothing else has last eight weeks of improved form have helped his contract price.

Will another suitor apart from the Blues emerge, with the Saints seemingly happy to take the compo pick and go back to the draft?

Liam Stocker can expect a multi-year deal after climbing off footy’s scrap heap while Jimmy Webster is an automatic selection each week and can also expect a new deal after strong form since returning from a fractured cheekbone.

Dan McKenzie is also an unrestricted free agent but has had a torrid run with injury, so should stay at the club under Ross Lyon.

Tom Campbell’s future depends on finding more ruck insurance for Rowan Marshall. His VFL form is excellent, so he could stay on the list.

SYDNEY​

Lance Franklin has retired and Sam Reid’s season was decimated by injury.

He is about to turn 32 but did play 18 games last year, so his future depends upon how much John Longmire believes he needs key-position cover.

Defender Lewis Melican has been linked to the Roos and he is an unrestricted free agent. He would be a low-risk, high-reward prospect at Arden St.

WEST COAST​

Luke Shuey and Shannon Hurn have just retired, with Isiah Winder the only other free agent on the list.

Winder has played only five WAFL games this year after a troublesome summer, banished by the club from training with his teammates then avoiding an assault charge after an altercation during a Geelong indigenous players summit.

He would need everything to go right to secure another deal.

WESTERN BULLDOGS​

Bailey Williams is close to a new deal after playing every game this year, but given it’s round 24 rivals will be asking questions.

Other clubs should circle Toby McLean who has produced huge VFL numbers but managed only five AFL games.

Tim O’Brien is hopeful of a one-year deal, and Taylor Duryea is expected to get another one-year deal after 20 solid games as a lock-down defender.

 

[Chadwiko]

​

Daniher’s deal was signed in 2020, so McKay’s salary might need to be over $800,000 given pay rises since that date.

Thanks

Most of what Ralphy writes here is more or less accurate, except the bit I've quoted there. He's gone too high in his estimate of what will trigger band 1 compensation for a 25 year old free agent.

It's closer to 700/750k~ base for two years.

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Haha, what's this bullsh:t about the AFL having to 'sell' anything?

Their MO is to announce whatever half-arsed or fully-arsed decision they've made, and everyone has to just suck it up.

Yep. That's what leadership is. It isn't asking permission.

 

[spurs]

No mention of Clark?

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Thanks

Most of what Ralphy writes here is more or less accurate, except the bit I've quoted there. He's gone too high in his estimate of what will trigger band 1 compensation for a 25 year old free agent.

It's closer to 700/750k~ base for two years.

$ amount per year, length of contract, and age of player are the three variables IIRC. And nobody outside of the AFL executive (and Brad Scott) knows was the $ trigger is or how much weight is given to a longer contract or the age of the player. But with Ben McKay being 25, and possibly asking for more than 2 years, then surely $700-750k is the trigger point. And surely once an offer is on the table, the AFL informs North Melbourne whether Band 1 has been triggered or whether they should consider matching the offer.

 

[Harris 10]

CARLTON​

There is enough defensive depth that key back Sam Durdin might be nervous.

We could get Sammy back to finish where it started.

 

[King Corey]

He won't be getting much $$$ at Carlton. We could easily offer him more.

Somehow I think Carlton will look after him if they want to keep him.

Who have they ever lost that they wanted to keep? And they've been non-contenders for just about the whole of the last 2 decades.

 

[The Nostradamus]

He won't be getting much $$$ at Carlton. We could easily offer him more.

Yeah plus they have Mitch McGovern who will come back and take his spot who coincidentally is also out of contract