2024 Ladder Predictions

[adammania9]

st kilda finished top 8 whilst having their most important player in king be a non-event and their captain steele playing under duress in 2023. i think theres more scope for them to improve than some of the other teams they were competing with for spots in the bottom half of the 8 this year (footscray, geelong, freo....)

Furthermore, Owens is a stud and in the top handful of young players in the league. Phillipou has extreme untapped potential, Wanganeen-Milera had an outstanding second season and will continue to progress. Caminiti and Sharman look capable support for King. Windhager could be brilliant too. There’s heaps to build on at the Saints. I’d be stunned if they went backwards.

They need Steele to return to his best footy so they have at least one top line midfielder, King to break through for 60 goals which is very attainable with his consistently linear improvement throughout his career. Sinclair, Wilkie and Marshall to hold their form whilst they’re middle-age. This list has the makings of one that can finish top four, but should finish 5-8 at worst.

 

[austinnn]

Furthermore, Owens is a stud and in the top handful of young players in the league. Phillipou has extreme untapped potential, Wanganeen-Milera had an outstanding second season and will continue to progress. Caminiti and Sharman look capable support for King. Windhager could be brilliant too. There’s heaps to build on at the Saints. I’d be stunned if they went backwards.

They need Steele to return to his best footy so they have at least one top line midfielder, King to break through for 60 goals which is very attainable with his consistently linear improvement throughout his career. Sinclair, Wilkie and Marshall to hold their form whilst they’re middle-age. This list has the makings of one that can finish top four, but should finish 5-8 at worst.

They won't regress, what's unsure is if a number of teams who finished under them in 2023 will improve enough to overtake them. I don't think that will happen but who knows.

What is funny is looking at a lot of predictions on this thread, all but a handful predicted finals in 2024 for all of Carlton, GWS and Sydney. Carlton finished the H&A season one draw ahead of the Saints, the two NSW clubs both finished below. The Giants and Blues started slowly and ended the season with a ton of momentum, whereas St Kilda started on fire, spluttered in the mid season before shoring up at the end. I'm not whining, but it is funny how so many people see GWS and Carlton in the top 4 and Saints near the bottom on the basis of fairly similar years. All those 3 clubs underperformed and the Saints overperformed or is it just recency bias?

 

[Fadge]

1. Carlton
2. Brisbane
3. Adelaide
4. GWS
5. Sydney
6. Collingwood
7. Gold Coast
8. Richmond

9. Port
10. Bulldogs
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Geelong
14. Essendon
15. West coast
16. Hawthorn
17. Fremantle
18. North

I'm not sure what's funnier/less likely - Carlton on top or Richmond in the top 8...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm not sure what's funnier/less likely - Carlton on top or Richmond in the top 8...

Carlton being minor premiers isn’t that hard to see.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Carlton being minor premiers isn’t that hard to see.

At the very least, they would need at least three forwards whose names aren't Curnow to start pulling their weight in the forward line.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton being minor premiers isn’t that hard to see.

Need I remind you they won 12 games in 2022 and 13.5 (from 23) in the 2023 home and away season?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Need I remind you they won 12 games in 2022 and 13.5 (from 23) in the 2023 home and away season?

And?

 

[Caligo]

At the very least, they would need at least three forwards whose names aren't Curnow to start pulling their weight in the forward line.

It isnt hard to imagine mckay re-finding a bit of form and small forwards can generate a lot of value just with forward pressure. I can definitely see Carlton managing to put it together. I really like their back 6.

 

[Fadge]

And?

Sorry. Pigs might learn to fly one day too...

 

[Makeshift Park]

It isnt hard to imagine mckay re-finding a bit of form and small forwards can generate a lot of value just with forward pressure. I can definitely see Carlton managing to put it together. I really like their back 6.

I can confidently envisage them in the 8, and its possible they might even make the top 4, but for them to go minor premiers I have to start factoring in things like substantial injuries to multiple key players at GWS and the Pies.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Sorry. Pigs might learn to fly one day too...

Seems like you’re just upset not everyone has Collingwood on top.

 

[Caligo]

I can confidently envisage them in the 8, and its possible they might even make the top 4, but for them to go minor premiers I have to start factoring in things like substantial injuries to multiple key players at GWS and the Pies.

GWS are flakey (see 2022) and the Pies could have dropped so many tight games. I dont see any clear favourite.

Sure, Carlton have problems, but I think every team does.

The league just feels more even than I can ever remember. But confirmation bias is strong.

 

[88mph]

I'm not sure what's funnier/less likely - Carlton on top or Richmond in the top 8...

Fremantle at 17 is the genuine lol here.

We will be top 8 easily this year.

 

[Fadge]

Seems like you’re just upset not everyone has Collingwood on top.

Yeah, of course...

 

[Makeshift Park]

GWS are flakey (see 2022) and the Pies could have dropped so many tight games. I dont see any clear favourite.

Under Kingsley they haven't been, that's the key bit.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Fremantle at 17 is the genuine lol here.

We will be top 8 easily this year.

I confidently predict Freo won't make the 8

 

[BrutThough]

st kilda finished top 8 whilst having their most important player in king be a non-event and their captain steele playing under duress in 2023. i think theres more scope for them to improve than some of the other teams they were competing with for spots in the bottom half of the 8 this year (footscray, geelong, freo....)

Membrey back and fit should make a huge difference as well. Reliable for at least 30 goals a season plus works really well with King.

Our forward line was a mess for the majority of the season so getting 2 good targets back should mean we aren't the least efficient forward line again.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Fremantle at 17 is the genuine lol here.

We will be top 8 easily this year.

Easily?

You are a chance, but it's an outside chance.

Would need most things to go right.

 

[WeaponX]

Fremantle at 17 is the genuine lol here.

We will be top 8 easily this year.

Quoted for future reference.

 

[Lsta062]

Sorry. Pigs might learn to fly one day too...

Carlton made a PF and had a record of 11-2 since Round 13. It’s not unreasonable to think that they’ll finish 1st on the ladder next year.

I personally don’t have them finishing first, but it’s not a “pigs might fly” situation.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton made a PF and had a record of 11-2 since Round 13. It’s not unreasonable to think that they’ll finish 1st on the ladder next year.

I personally don’t have them finishing first, but it’s not a “pigs might fly” situation.

So they had a good record for half a season in 2023, in the same way as they had a good record for half a season in 2022?

They are a mentally and physically fragile football club... not a good combination, and not a combination that enables a club to genuinely contend for a premiership.

 

[Mr Meow]

Carlton made a PF and had a record of 11-2 since Round 13. It’s not unreasonable to think that they’ll finish 1st on the ladder next year.

I personally don’t have them finishing first, but it’s not a “pigs might fly” situation.

For whatever reason, most sides that make a grand final or prelim from outside the top 4 don't tend to back it up the next season.

Collingwood 2007, Bulldogs 2016, Kangaroos 2014, Port 2014, GWS 2019 and Bulldogs 2021 all declined in ladder position the next season - with a few of them missing finals. North to their credit went on another good finals run, but we're talking about the ladder position here.

Brisbane were an exception 2022-2023. But it's not the clear path to a top 4 follow up position some might assume.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Membrey back and fit should make a huge difference as well. Reliable for at least 30 goals a season plus works really well with King.

Our forward line was a mess for the majority of the season so getting 2 good targets back should mean we aren't the least efficient forward line again.

How's Membrey going?
Had a tough year last year

 

[Gavin Excell]

For whatever reason, most sides that make a grand final or prelim from outside the top 4 don't tend to back it up the next season.

Collingwood 2007, Bulldogs 2016, Kangaroos 2014, Port 2014, GWS 2019 and Bulldogs 2021 all declined in ladder position the next season - with a few of them missing finals. North to their credit went on another good finals run, but we're talking about the ladder position here.

Brisbane were an exception 2022-2023. But it's not the clear path to a top 4 follow up position some might assume.

Interesting observation
Suggest flash in the pan doesn't it

 

[Fadge]

Brisbane were an exception 2022-2023. But it's not the clear path to a top 4 follow up position some might assume.

Brisbane had also been top 4 or thereabouts the previous three seasons between 2019 and 2021.