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2024 Ladder Predictions

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Ctracks said:
Carlton supporters, is it true that only Carlton will improve?
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No and nor have any of us said that. Most on our board think GWS, Brisbane, Sydney and us have plenty of upside amongst other teams, but Collingwood being on average older than Geelong in 2022 doesn't really scream youthful improvement.

In contrast we name some new faces and young players we're expecting to see improvement from given their performances through pre season so far and just get told they wont improve by Pies nuffs because... They won't...
 
Ctracks said:
There are plenty of Carlton nuffs too though.
How many young players can improve in one season? Is it common for more than 2-4 in any one team to improve in a single season?
Click to expand...
How many young players have people named? Motlop, Hollands x2 and Walsh? Maybe Cottrell too? The rest are either injury afflicted vets finally having a clean bill of health through the pre season and a KPF fixing his kicking action which given he's averaged around 60% most of his career and dropped to 38% this season I don't think is that unreasonable re expectations of improving.

Motlop
Hollands
Hollands
Walsh

McKay fixing his kicking

Williams back after his ACL

Fantasia, McGovern, Marchbank, and Martin all having full pre seasons after ending the season playing good footy and finally having some consistency in their bodies after years of setbacks and niggles.

Doesn't seem that outlandish to me
 
The Pies are without shortage of reasons to uphold their status as top dog.

The Magpies' best player is 21 years old and in the 8 games he has played predominantly in the guts, he has played as many 3 vote games as he hasn't. The sky is the limit as to what he could produce in full seasons in the midfield.

Bobby Hill displayed his arsenal in the finals series with a Norm Smith-winning performance and a top 3 performance against Melbourne. In a role that can struggle in the biggest of games, Bobby stood up and with just 65 games under his belt, who knows what could come from here? Charlie Cameron kicked 5 in a final at the same age and never looked back.

At 23 years old, Quaynor is statistically one of the finest general defenders in the game and a weapon in the Magpies' quick and slick ball movement. An All-Australian guernsey may beckon with more experience in the role.

It's no coincidence that Nathan Murphy has played an 80% W/L record over the last two years. He is an outstanding foil for Darcy Moore and rarely does the footy get past him. Only has 57 games under his belt and at 24, his best footy lies ahead with any injury luck.

Beau McCreery's explosive runs forward and impressive strength around the footy suggests he could play wing minutes and get the occasional centre bounce. A confident Beau is scary for defenders. More so Reef McInnes has bided his time in the VFL and looks a chance to be a mainstay in Collingwood's forward line in 2024 following a terrific pre-season. May finally have the tank to play the big minutes up forward. He was a top 10 prospect in the eyes of some in his draft year.

Ed Allan is 193cm and runs like the wind blows. Expect a Rising Star nomination in his first handful of games. Finlay Macrae's life in the last few years has been cruelled by bad fate. An impressive pre-season suggests he may finally unearth his ball-winning ability on the AFL stage.

And of course Lachie Schultz is an upgrade on the departing Jack Ginnivan and Taylor Adams. An efficient marking target and strong crumber, Schultz may be rewarded by the Magpies' ball movement and kick 40 goals.
 

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WalshistheGOAT said:
How many young players have people named? Motlop, Hollands x2 and Walsh? Maybe Cottrell too? The rest are either injury afflicted vets finally having a clean bill of health through the pre season and a KPF fixing his kicking action which given he's averaged around 60% most of his career and dropped to 38% this season I don't think is that unreasonable re expectations of improving.

Motlop
Hollands
Hollands
Walsh

McKay fixing his kicking

Williams back after his ACL

Fantasia, McGovern, Marchbank, and Martin all having full pre seasons after ending the season playing good footy and finally having some consistency in their bodies after years of setbacks and niggles.

Doesn't seem that outlandish to me
Click to expand...
wew relying on players whose entire career has been defined by being inconsistent and unreliable to improve

way more belief in collingwood somehow improving than you lot tbh

schultz and hill are more likely to have a better year than motlop and fantasia - no one can argue that right?
daicos as a full time mid > walsh racking up empty touches
murphy and quanyor continue to improve out of sight of mcgovern and marchbank
josh daicos backs up his AA year > a bloke from the suns whose got drug charges
 
Mags98 said:
wew relying on players whose entire career has been defined by being inconsistent and unreliable to improve

way more belief in collingwood somehow improving than you lot tbh

schultz and hill are more likely to have a better year than motlop and fantasia - no one can argue that right?
daicos as a full time mid > walsh racking up empty touches
murphy and quanyor continue to improve out of sight of mcgovern and marchbank
josh daicos backs up his AA year > a bloke from the suns whose got drug charges
Click to expand...
Meanwhile the Pies have 9 players over 30 this season and are the oldest team in the competition... I'm sure not a single one of them will slow down though...

Blues have 2 players on the whole list over 30 and they are 30 and 31 respectively. Nearly everyone else is in their prime age bracket of 23-28.

Would think it's a safer bet to have nearly all your players still in their sweet spot and only need moderate improvement from a few role players to take you up a level than it is to maintain the level with almost half your b22 at the back end of their careers and every teams out to get you. Geelong found that out last year pretty quickly.
 
Mags98 said:
wew relying on players whose entire career has been defined by being inconsistent and unreliable to improve
Click to expand...
We’re not. You’re just ignoring anyone who doesn’t fit into that mould.

Mags98 said:
way more belief in collingwood somehow improving than you lot tbh
Click to expand...

Good for you. Nothing wrong with that.

Mags98 said:
schultz and hill are more likely to have a better year than motlop and fantasia - no one can argue that right?
Click to expand...

They’re currently better footballers than the Carlton duo.

Of course it isn’t a fait accompli that they have better seasons in 2024. A lot can happen.

Mags98 said:
daicos as a full time mid > walsh racking up empty touches
Click to expand...

And this is where you lose credibility. Where are all these Pies numpties coming from?

Daicos is a star. But it is ok to admit you’ve never seen Sam Walsh play.

He was literally just voted player of the finals series despite not playing in the grand final.

He too is a star. And no, he doesn’t rack up “empty touches”.

Mags98 said:
murphy and quanyor continue to improve out of sight of mcgovern and marchbank
Click to expand...
Out of sight based on anything other than ‘it’s Collingwood”?

What if Murphy cops a head knock in round 1?

Mags98 said:
josh daicos backs up his AA year > a bloke from the suns whose got drug charges
Click to expand...

Nice childish finish there. Didn’t school go back today?

Do you reckon no Pies have ever done recreational drugs? Boy have I got news for you!
 
adammania9 said:
The Pies are without shortage of reasons to uphold their status as top dog.

The Magpies' best player is 21 years old and in the 8 games he has played predominantly in the guts, he has played as many 3 vote games as he hasn't. The sky is the limit as to what he could produce in full seasons in the midfield.

Bobby Hill displayed his arsenal in the finals series with a Norm Smith-winning performance and a top 3 performance against Melbourne. In a role that can struggle in the biggest of games, Bobby stood up and with just 65 games under his belt, who knows what could come from here? Charlie Cameron kicked 5 in a final at the same age and never looked back.

At 23 years old, Quaynor is statistically one of the finest general defenders in the game and a weapon in the Magpies' quick and slick ball movement. An All-Australian guernsey may beckon with more experience in the role.

It's no coincidence that Nathan Murphy has played an 80% W/L record over the last two years. He is an outstanding foil for Darcy Moore and rarely does the footy get past him. Only has 57 games under his belt and at 24, his best footy lies ahead with any injury luck.

Beau McCreery's explosive runs forward and impressive strength around the footy suggests he could play wing minutes and get the occasional centre bounce. A confident Beau is scary for defenders. More so Reef McInnes has bided his time in the VFL and looks a chance to be a mainstay in Collingwood's forward line in 2024 following a terrific pre-season. May finally have the tank to play the big minutes up forward. He was a top 10 prospect in the eyes of some in his draft year.

Ed Allan is 193cm and runs like the wind blows. Expect a Rising Star nomination in his first handful of games. Finlay Macrae's life in the last few years has been cruelled by bad fate. An impressive pre-season suggests he may finally unearth his ball-winning ability on the AFL stage.

And of course Lachie Schultz is an upgrade on the departing Jack Ginnivan and Taylor Adams. An efficient marking target and strong crumber, Schultz may be rewarded by the Magpies' ball movement and kick 40 goals.
Click to expand...
I think the biggest issue here is that at September 2023 age will be against 36% of your best 22:

Pendlebury 36
Howe 34
Sidebottom 33
Cox 32
Elliot 32
Mihocek 31
Mitchell 31
Crisp 31

Keep in mind this is off the back of going deep into two finals series in a row. That effect can't be discounted. For reference, "Dads Army" of Geelong won their flag with a core group of:

Selwood 34
Hawkins 34
Smith 33
Dangerfield 32
Blicavs 31
Duncan 31
Stewart 29
Cameron 29

With reference to your points.
  • I think Daicos is close to his ceiling if not there already. If he does improve, which he very well could, I wouldn't be relying on that to offset the natural decline of aging players.
  • I personally don't think Murphy will make it through the year as harsh as that sounds.
  • Ed Allen hasn't played a game. I wouldn't be relying on that.
  • Lachie Schultz is an improvement I will give you that.

The reality of the matter is that Collingwood won a prelim at home against GWS by one point and a grand final against Brisbane by four points. Some posters are carrying on like they're as dominant as Hawthorn after 2014, Melbourne after 2021 or Richmond after 2019. The reality is they're not that far ahead.

I'm just not sure the improvements will offset the natural decline of aging players. Feel free to hold this against if Collingwood go back to back, whatever. Just my opinion.
 
CarnTheScray said:
Genuine request, can a Carlton supporter, if willing, provide with the areas of improvement they see that will put them into the top 4? Talking list improvements etc.
Click to expand...
Does making PF not constitute top 4
adammania9 said:
The Pies are without shortage of reasons to uphold their status as top dog.

The Magpies' best player is 21 years old and in the 8 games he has played predominantly in the guts, he has played as many 3 vote games as he hasn't. The sky is the limit as to what he could produce in full seasons in the midfield.

Bobby Hill displayed his arsenal in the finals series with a Norm Smith-winning performance and a top 3 performance against Melbourne. In a role that can struggle in the biggest of games, Bobby stood up and with just 65 games under his belt, who knows what could come from here? Charlie Cameron kicked 5 in a final at the same age and never looked back.

At 23 years old, Quaynor is statistically one of the finest general defenders in the game and a weapon in the Magpies' quick and slick ball movement. An All-Australian guernsey may beckon with more experience in the role.

It's no coincidence that Nathan Murphy has played an 80% W/L record over the last two years. He is an outstanding foil for Darcy Moore and rarely does the footy get past him. Only has 57 games under his belt and at 24, his best footy lies ahead with any injury luck.

Beau McCreery's explosive runs forward and impressive strength around the footy suggests he could play wing minutes and get the occasional centre bounce. A confident Beau is scary for defenders. More so Reef McInnes has bided his time in the VFL and looks a chance to be a mainstay in Collingwood's forward line in 2024 following a terrific pre-season. May finally have the tank to play the big minutes up forward. He was a top 10 prospect in the eyes of some in his draft year.

Ed Allan is 193cm and runs like the wind blows. Expect a Rising Star nomination in his first handful of games. Finlay Macrae's life in the last few years has been cruelled by bad fate. An impressive pre-season suggests he may finally unearth his ball-winning ability on the AFL stage.

And of course Lachie Schultz is an upgrade on the departing Jack Ginnivan and Taylor Adams. An efficient marking target and strong crumber, Schultz may be rewarded by the Magpies' ball movement and kick 40 goals.
Click to expand...
Great- you’ve added some room for improvement which sounds somewhat reasonable, with of course your customary mayo added

Now, times that by double the amount of players that could improve Carlton for the myriad reasons already discussed 😉💙
 
Jeremias said:
We’re not. You’re just ignoring anyone who doesn’t fit into that mould.



Good for you. Nothing wrong with that.



They’re currently better footballers than the Carlton duo.

Of course it isn’t a fait accompli that they have better seasons in 2024. A lot can happen.



And this is where you lose credibility. Where are all these Pies numpties coming from?

Daicos is a star. But it is ok to admit you’ve never seen Sam Walsh play.

He was literally just voted player of the finals series despite not playing in the grand final.

He too is a star. And no, he doesn’t rack up “empty touches”.


Out of sight based on anything other than ‘it’s Collingwood”?

What if Murphy cops a head knock in round 1?



Nice childish finish there. Didn’t school go back today?

Do you reckon no Pies have ever done recreational drugs? Boy have I got news for you!
Click to expand...
Mags98 is a Fremantle supporter
 
smish said:
I think the biggest issue here is that at September 2023 age will be against 36% of your best 22:

Pendlebury 36
Howe 34
Sidebottom 33
Cox 32
Elliot 32
Mihocek 31
Mitchell 31
Crisp 31

Keep in mind this is off the back of going deep into two finals series in a row. That effect can't be discounted. For reference, "Dads Army" of Geelong won their flag with a core group of:

Selwood 34
Hawkins 34
Smith 33
Dangerfield 32
Blicavs 31
Duncan 31
Stewart 29
Cameron 29

With reference to your points.
  • I think Daicos is close to his ceiling if not there already. If he does improve, which he very well could, I wouldn't be relying on that to offset the natural decline of aging players.
  • I personally don't think Murphy will make it through the year as harsh as that sounds.
  • Ed Allen hasn't played a game. I wouldn't be relying on that.
  • Lachie Schultz is an improvement I will give you that.

The reality of the matter is that Collingwood won a prelim at home against GWS by one point and a grand final against Brisbane by four points. Some posters are carrying on like they're as dominant as Hawthorn after 2014, Melbourne after 2021 or Richmond after 2019. The reality is they're not that far ahead.

I'm just not sure the improvements will offset the natural decline of aging players. Feel free to hold this against if Collingwood go back to back, whatever. Just my opinion.
Click to expand...
Credible opinion. I can see why the comparisons can be made to Geelong based on age. However,

I think the main difference between Geelong '23 and the Pies '24 is our midfield is significantly deeper and could cover hypothetical injuries. Their midfield was average-above average at best in '22 and then Guthrie missed most of the year and Dangerfield missed 5 games in '23. This resulted in Atkins and Blicavs playing massive midfield minutes and neither are world beaters in the guts. Collingwood's two best midfielders are 21 and 27. Our best winger is 25. Geelong's best wingers were 34 and 32. From those listed older players, 6 of them made up Geelong's top 10 best and fairest including the top 3 in 2022. Collingwood's top 10 had 4 of those listed, and the top three were 25, 21 and 27. Collingwood have more of a core group in their prime than Geelong did.

Pendlebury and Sidebottom are irreplaceable following retirement, but we firmly believe they will be producing quality footy until the day they call it quits. They have exceptional football minds and they have remained influential despite their athletic profile lessening. It's hard to see them "dropping off" per se.

The Pies' defence rolled on just fine without Howe for much of last year when he was injured. He's a solid contributor still, but he's now the weakest and most replaceable of our established best 22 defenders. Mason Cox has a unique footballing profile in that he picked up the game at a late age enabling him to his his physical peak much later. He's coming off a career best season and I expect his output to remain the same. Brody Mihocek I always fear isn't far from the drop but he too produced a career-best season so he's likely to continue contributing.

Mitchell's importance to the side is paramount but at the same time, he isn't a top level inside mid and Macrae and Allan have had the time to work with him and Pendlebury etc to become strong ball winners. Mitchell is one of the more likely to drop off in '24. Elliott I can also see age starting to catch up to. It did in the first half of the year but then he had an 28 goal patch in 6 games after the bye so who knows? We might get another season of the same. Crisp not worried about at all. He was a spare parts man across midfield, wing and half-back all year and similar output is highly likely.
 

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The Feeder Club said:
It's not, it's the ******* Carlton Collingwood who has the biggest dick thread and it's utterly tiresome. The fact that two mods have contributed to derailing it, rather than deleting or moving the posts to the already established biggest dick thread, makes it even worse
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There will be more input from the other team’s supporters as the season goes on.
 

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BennyGFunk said:
Any team with Dusty (and Bolton) still in it & fit aren’t finishing 17th

I do agree you’re on a reset of sorts though
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I disagree vehemently with this statement on the basis that 2 suprrstars cannot carry a footy team.
In other sports, much more yes, but not in the greatest game on earth

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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