Strategy 2024 Midprice Madness

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We should change the name of this board from ‘Mid Priced Madness’ to ‘Pre-Season Madness Speculation Picks’.

Just for the hell of it I will add Will Brodie to the speculation mix.
We know what he can do and what he didn’t do last season. Waiting for preseason games and lineups.
 
On another point, who here has decided not to post anything publicly about side and structure, say within RMT threads here or elsewhere.

Trying a new structure this year as I guess many are with the lack of FWD options.

Keeping research on the right mid pricers or break out candidates is worth its weight in gold and keeping player choices cards close to the chest is something I have found a lot more doing.
Also not listening or watching the wrong YouTube experts who are just responding to speculation posted here by medium experts not inside club sources.

I would hate to make a team full of bench subs which is the risk in the MPM and rookie range.
 
dabombers said:
On another point, who here has decided not to post anything publicly about side and structure, say within RMT threads here or elsewhere.

Trying a new structure this year as I guess many are with the lack of FWD options.

Keeping research on the right mid pricers or break out candidates is worth its weight in gold and keeping player choices cards close to the chest is something I have found a lot more doing.
Also not listening or watching the wrong YouTube experts who are just responding to speculation posted here by medium experts not inside club sources.

I would hate to make a team full of bench subs which is the risk in the MPM and rookie range.
Click to expand...
Most years I don't post my team in the last week or so before the season starts. It does not matter so much now but when we start getting actual scores from preseason games it starts to matter.
Any structure you pick right now is probably going to change after every preseason game. I wouldn't stress just yet.
If for example ssp gives us 3 Nick Martin's for 102k it changes your team completely
 

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buttox said:
Most years I don't post my team in the last week or so before the season starts. It does not matter so much now but when we start getting actual scores from preseason games it starts to matter.
Any structure you pick right now is probably going to change after every preseason game. I wouldn't stress just yet.
If for example ssp gives us 3 Nick Martin's for 102k it changes your team completely
Click to expand...
Ok so maybe I should have made my idea a little bit clearer.

Take an example of picking a mid- pricer from last season from the start. Who was at a low percentage ownership even after preseason games but you took the madness risk and he became a real premium 105+SC avg scores.
i don’t have many examples at the moment maybe Ziebell is a good one or not.

Now for every time someone does a ‘Show and Tell’ on their RMT, confirmation bias or people just being ‘Sheeple’ steps in.
In game theory it is the
Ctrl-C > Ctrl V version of thinking.

Say you have a list of 20-30 viable Mid pricers and you are adding them to your team to play around with structure etc.
Odds are you are not the only one thinking this at the same time with 100k+ players.
So the percentage of ownership rises from say 4-8% to then 15-20% on the SC site.

Now any knowledge advantage or risk assessment is gone. As in the ‘cat is out of the bag’ and this player will now be on everyone’s radar going forward.

I am not trying to cancel discussions or sharing ideas on players to gather feedback. Thats what this community is about.
Though maybe the secret formula for ‘Coke’ is kept in a vault for a reason.
 
dabombers said:
Ok so maybe I should have made my idea a little bit clearer.

Take an example of picking a mid- pricer from last season from the start. Who was at a low percentage ownership even after preseason games but you took the madness risk and he became a real premium 105+SC avg scores.
i don’t have many examples at the moment maybe Ziebell is a good one or not.

Now for every time someone does a ‘Show and Tell’ on their RMT, confirmation bias or people just being ‘Sheeple’ steps in.
In game theory it is the
Ctrl-C > Ctrl V version of thinking.

Say you have a list of 20-30 viable Mid pricers and you are adding them to your team to play around with structure etc.
Odds are you are not the only one thinking this at the same time with 100k+ players.
So the percentage of ownership rises from say 4-8% to then 15-20% on the SC site.

Now any knowledge advantage or risk assessment is gone. As in the ‘cat is out of the bag’ and this player will now be on everyone’s radar going forward.

I am not trying to cancel discussions or sharing ideas on players to gather feedback. Thats what this community is about.
Though maybe the secret formula for ‘Coke’ is kept in a vault for a reason.
Click to expand...
Podcasts, Vodcasts, social media, Club media, AFL media ....people are getting their player ideas from a variety of sources ....so I hardly think posting a team in the RMT thread has much bearing

In fact we probably offer more critiques of players & structures than "being talked too" by those other sources

But you simply cannot hide any player / role change now in this game .....impossible

As we always say though .....accept the information, do your own research .....and follow your own gut
 
dabombers said:
Though maybe the secret formula for ‘Coke’ is kept in a vault for a reason.
Click to expand...

Mild amphetamines, battery acid and a caramel colouring that causes cancer.

I thought everyone knew. 🤔
 
dabombers said:
On another point, who here has decided not to post anything publicly about side and structure, say within RMT threads here or elsewhere.

Trying a new structure this year as I guess many are with the lack of FWD options.

Keeping research on the right mid pricers or break out candidates is worth its weight in gold and keeping player choices cards close to the chest is something I have found a lot more doing.
Also not listening or watching the wrong YouTube experts who are just responding to speculation posted here by medium experts not inside club sources.

I would hate to make a team full of bench subs which is the risk in the MPM and rookie range.
Click to expand...

For me I don’t think it matters. There are plenty of valuable structures

3/6/2/2 and 4/5/2/2 being the most common. No winning team is perfect and often it’s less about structure and more about who you have within it.

I also saw something a former winner said which is that going with an extreme POD (say less than 3% ownership) is betting that you know better than players within the 97th percentile or better. It’s a pretty arrogant choice.

By all means back yourself and your reasoning but all your doing is getting a 1 week head start because if that player is nessecary then every other top player will have them within a few weeks.

All the top players have the same data as everyone else and winning seems to be a combination of luck and being able to avoid disaster the best.
 
Who are the midpriced players you're keen on but keep talking yourself out of when you look at it neutrally?
Have a little bit of interest in Liam Baker.
Fyfe floats in and out.
Budarick I guess might present, but I like Secco a heap better at the lower price point.
Charlie Comben could be Liam Jones Mk II, could be super-handy with a few kick-ins.
Xerri has prospects, but no real exit strategy
Who do you have on your list?
 
gutsroy said:
Who are the midpriced players you're keen on but keep talking yourself out of when you look at it neutrally?
Have a little bit of interest in Liam Baker.
Fyfe floats in and out.
Budarick I guess might present, but I like Secco a heap better at the lower price point.
Charlie Comben could be Liam Jones Mk II, could be super-handy with a few kick-ins.
Xerri has prospects, but no real exit strategy
Who do you have on your lisf
Click to expand...
Fyfe for me.
If he plays 10 rounds like the old days my season is over. Yeo is similar but less likely he is a keeper.
Fyfe could do 90+ easily as a forward
 
dabombers said:
Ok so maybe I should have made my idea a little bit clearer.

Take an example of picking a mid- pricer from last season from the start. Who was at a low percentage ownership even after preseason games but you took the madness risk and he became a real premium 105+SC avg scores.
i don’t have many examples at the moment maybe Ziebell is a good one or not.

Now for every time someone does a ‘Show and Tell’ on their RMT, confirmation bias or people just being ‘Sheeple’ steps in.
In game theory it is the
Ctrl-C > Ctrl V version of thinking.

Say you have a list of 20-30 viable Mid pricers and you are adding them to your team to play around with structure etc.
Odds are you are not the only one thinking this at the same time with 100k+ players.
So the percentage of ownership rises from say 4-8% to then 15-20% on the SC site.

Now any knowledge advantage or risk assessment is gone. As in the ‘cat is out of the bag’ and this player will now be on everyone’s radar going forward.

I am not trying to cancel discussions or sharing ideas on players to gather feedback. Thats what this community is about.
Though maybe the secret formula for ‘Coke’ is kept in a vault for a reason.
Click to expand...
The better content creators / coaches can often point to having been on-board < insert midpricer who pops off here > earlier than the crowd, but starting teams have been converging for a while. (Rd 0 with the free look will also see starting sides converge, I guess.)
Nothing nefarious in it, there are just a number of good content creators who have gotten to where they have gotten by virtue of their research and analysis, the majority of which they pass on to their followers. And because their analysis tends to be good, they all tend to identify similar players. Think about the early talk around H Young, reconsidering Fyfe / Wines / Crouch value propositions in the mooted roles vs recent times etc..
Those followers are sometimes in multiple communities, and then you have the more generic content for the masses, like the official SC podcast or whatever, so it all diffuses gradually and they all get on to similar trends, some just with a touch more offset.
The real advantage you and other good coaches are going to have throughout the year is when the real stuff gets going and the gap between decisions gets shorter.
That means less time for info to trickle through, so some people don't even find out about some developments in time to take action, whereas the serious coaches tend to be across it. Then there are late outs, there are degrees of C / VC analysis etc.
Nothing wrong with keeping your cards closer to your chest.
If a midpricer is any good, people will start to take notice and bring him in as well, so your advantage on that front is the 2-3 weeks earlier you had him to yourself in comparative terms. Thereafter, you want them to keep shooting the lights out anyway, because more and more people get on them at a higher outlay than you and the higher the ownership, the less downside risk you have if they come a gutser.
I guess keeping a lid on it might mean less bandwagoners or at least a slower bandwagoner uptick rate. Fair enough, but there are pretty strong limitations on the influence any one individual is going to have either way, unless they have a following.
 
Last edited:
buttox said:
Fyfe for me.
If he plays 10 rounds like the old days my season is over. Yeo is similar but less likely he is a keeper.
Fyfe could do 90+ easily as a forward
Click to expand...
Yeo in full flight is great, just so hard to select at what is a pretty high price in that bracket with his recent durability struggles.
Fyfe has a bit of an advantage there that even if he blows up after 6 weeks, if he plays anything like the Fyfe of old, he will have given you good points and solid cash gen.
 

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gutsroy said:
Who are the midpriced players you're keen on but keep talking yourself out of when you look at it neutrally?
Have a little bit of interest in Liam Baker.
Fyfe floats in and out.
Budarick I guess might present, but I like Secco a heap better at the lower price point.
Charlie Comben could be Liam Jones Mk II, could be super-handy with a few kick-ins.
Xerri has prospects, but no real exit strategy
Who do you have on your list?
Click to expand...
In def line, NWM.
In mid, Martin.
In fwd line, Baker.
 
jdstorm said:
For me I don’t think it matters. There are plenty of valuable structures

3/6/2/2 and 4/5/2/2 being the most common. No winning team is perfect and often it’s less about structure and more about who you have within it.

I also saw something a former winner said which is that going with an extreme POD (say less than 3% ownership) is betting that you know better than players within the 97th percentile or better. It’s a pretty arrogant choice.

By all means back yourself and your reasoning but all your doing is getting a 1 week head start because if that player is nessecary then every other top player will have them within a few weeks.

All the top players have the same data as everyone else and winning seems to be a combination of luck and being able to avoid disaster the best.
Click to expand...
So that is not exactly how statistics, bell curves and game theory works.

This is not a gambling game based on odds which works with your assessment and use of an analogy from someone else.
SuperCoach is an exercise in statistics and strategy.
Though i agree with Luck being a major part.

There will be obvious reasons why certain players are picked by 20-40% and then the extremes at 40% and above. For a player to be picked at above 75% is an anomaly.

For anyone who plays No-Limit Holdem Poker.
Imagine you draw Pocket Kings in first position (you would be happy), I see your previous plays and call you with 9-10 suited, then the small blind gets pocket Aces and just slow plays them with a call.
“This is how we are starting pre-season” there is no information except from previous hands (analogy for previous seasons).
Now statistically pre flop my hand is the worst (riskiest), your hand with pocket Kings is sort of dead in the water with only 2 cards in the deck to improve your hand and small blind with pocket Aces is favourite by a long way.

MPM is like playing the game with
9-10 suited every hand. And hoping to suck out with either a full-house, flush, straight, Trips or even 2 pair.

So many more cards in the deck to improve hand over both the Aces and Kings.

But also a good chance to fold, now back to SuperCoach, change strategies.

Out of the 780 total players listed in Supercoach 449 of them fall within the Mid-Pricer tier (200k-520k).
69 players are above 520k and 262 players are below 200k.

So the greatest range of players are Mid-Pricers.
My original point of post was to point out percentage of ownership and how trends by this factor dictate game play.

At the moment we can see who is trying to play with Aces and Kings as ownership is showing us that.

Though not as many can see who is or how many people are playing with 9-10 or 7-2 or other garbage poker starting hands, but could win massive pots on the right flop.

Or I could just announce to table my cards and hope for the best.
 
dabombers said:
So that is not exactly how statistics, bell curves and game theory works.

This is not a gambling game based on odds which works with your assessment and use of an analogy from someone else.
SuperCoach is an exercise in statistics and strategy.
Though i agree with Luck being a major part.

There will be obvious reasons why certain players are picked by 20-40% and then the extremes at 40% and above. For a player to be picked at above 75% is an anomaly.

For anyone who plays No-Limit Holdem Poker.
Imagine you draw Pocket Kings in first position (you would be happy), I see your previous plays and call you with 9-10 suited, then the small blind gets pocket Aces and just slow plays them with a call.
“This is how we are starting pre-season” there is no information except from previous hands (analogy for previous seasons).
Now statistically pre flop my hand is the worst (riskiest), your hand with pocket Kings is sort of dead in the water with only 2 cards in the deck to improve your hand and small blind with pocket Aces is favourite by a long way.

MPM is like playing the game with
9-10 suited every hand. And hoping to suck out with either a full-house, flush, straight, Trips or even 2 pair.

So many more cards in the deck to improve hand over both the Aces and Kings.

But also a good chance to fold, now back to SuperCoach, change strategies.

Out of the 780 total players listed in Supercoach 449 of them fall within the Mid-Pricer tier (200k-520k).
69 players are above 520k and 262 players are below 200k.

So the greatest range of players are Mid-Pricers.
My original point of post was to point out percentage of ownership and how trends by this factor dictate game play.

At the moment we can see who is trying to play with Aces and Kings as ownership is showing us that.

Though not as many can see who is or how many people are playing with 9-10 or 7-2 or other garbage poker starting hands, but could win massive pots on the right flop.

Or I could just announce to table my cards and hope for the best.
Click to expand...

I mean I think this analogy doesn’t quite work due to the meta.

There are people who financially benefit from providing players with statistical analysis and information about the game far more than the 50k grand prize.

So for the most part there’s a lot of good information out there. For the most part The best most reliable players are known and they can be categorised in 2 ways .

1 keepers, 2 money makers. From there the game becomes about risk management and the risk you are taking is on players with changing roles as for the most part it’s roles that are worth points more than specific players.

the best players are known. Aside from a few surprises everyone knows who the best players and who the most likely best value players are and will be and it’s the puzzle/correct combination that matters more then
 
dabombers said:
So that is not exactly how statistics, bell curves and game theory works.

This is not a gambling game based on odds which works with your assessment and use of an analogy from someone else.
SuperCoach is an exercise in statistics and strategy.
Though i agree with Luck being a major part.

There will be obvious reasons why certain players are picked by 20-40% and then the extremes at 40% and above. For a player to be picked at above 75% is an anomaly.

For anyone who plays No-Limit Holdem Poker.
Imagine you draw Pocket Kings in first position (you would be happy), I see your previous plays and call you with 9-10 suited, then the small blind gets pocket Aces and just slow plays them with a call.
“This is how we are starting pre-season” there is no information except from previous hands (analogy for previous seasons).
Now statistically pre flop my hand is the worst (riskiest), your hand with pocket Kings is sort of dead in the water with only 2 cards in the deck to improve your hand and small blind with pocket Aces is favourite by a long way.

MPM is like playing the game with
9-10 suited every hand. And hoping to suck out with either a full-house, flush, straight, Trips or even 2 pair.

So many more cards in the deck to improve hand over both the Aces and Kings.

But also a good chance to fold, now back to SuperCoach, change strategies.

Out of the 780 total players listed in Supercoach 449 of them fall within the Mid-Pricer tier (200k-520k).
69 players are above 520k and 262 players are below 200k.

So the greatest range of players are Mid-Pricers.
My original point of post was to point out percentage of ownership and how trends by this factor dictate game play.

At the moment we can see who is trying to play with Aces and Kings as ownership is showing us that.

Though not as many can see who is or how many people are playing with 9-10 or 7-2 or other garbage poker starting hands, but could win massive pots on the right flop.

Or I could just announce to table my cards and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
The biggest trap in regards to structure for seasoned sc players is to try to recreate previous years structures.
I see a lot of folks taking guys like harmes and billings because there forward line feels weak with one premo.
Be open to different mixes would be my advice. Some crazy starting teams have won sc before. 2 premo mids being the obvious case in point.
Take the value were it presents don't lock yourself in with pre conceived notions of what a team should look like
40 trades this year opens up even more viable structures imo.
Anyways that's my 2c
 
Further to my above post.
I've been playing sc a long time.
I have seen some crazy structures work.
I try them every year and take a look to see if they are viable.
1 premo ruck, defender or forward for example.
2 premo mids.
It costs you nothing to take a look and see what it does to the rest of your team.
 
buttox said:
Further to my above post.
I've been playing sc a long time.
I have seen some crazy structures work.
I try them every year and take a look to see if they are viable.
1 premo ruck, defender or forward for example.
2 premo mids.
It costs you nothing to take a look and see what it does to the rest of your team.
Click to expand...

I think the really interesting thing this year is how the extra trades affect the game. You could have more midpricers and less premiums and still end up complete last year.

You could also say that assuming the value of a trade is 150k then CD just gave us an extra 600k and the best teams should expect to finish at around 16 Million total value.

Now if all your best 22 we’re worth 650k and bench = 1M that still leaves you 800k for bench upgrades
 
jdstorm said:
I mean I think this analogy doesn’t quite work due to the meta.

There are people who financially benefit from providing players with statistical analysis and information about the game far more than the 50k grand prize.

So for the most part there’s a lot of good information out there. For the most part The best most reliable players are known and they can be categorised in 2 ways .

1 keepers, 2 money makers. From there the game becomes about risk management and the risk you are taking is on players with changing roles as for the most part it’s roles that are worth points more than specific players.

the best players are known. Aside from a few surprises everyone knows who the best players and who the most likely best value players are and will be and it’s the puzzle/correct combination that matters more then
Click to expand...
Ok the analogy wasn’t my best piece of work. It did start to become a bit of a ramble which I admit.

Totally agree that the money in SuperCoach and any fantasy sport (NBA, NFL, FPL etc) worldwide is made by supporting content creators be it YouTube, Patreon or subscription based websites.

The odds of being the one guy to win the big prize doesn’t matter.

Most people now play just to win their cash leagues or against themselves just for a fun hobby to enjoy the great game. With a bit of optimistic dream they can be ‘Highlander’ - There can be only one !!

Some are also obsessed to a OCD type level, and this is where we gather to discuss our addiction.

Every year I say it will be my last but the challenge of being better than last year keeps me trying yet again.

For the content creators I always send appreciation for their work they do and the entertainment some of them provide.

On your point that any combination of strategy could be the special sauce, yeah it changes each year and shows how many different ways there is to play this game.

Loving the healthy debate of different perspectives no bad feelings even if we all don’t 100% see ‘eye to eye’ with each other.
 
jdstorm said:
I think the really interesting thing this year is how the extra trades affect the game. You could have more midpricers and less premiums and still end up complete last year.

You could also say that assuming the value of a trade is 150k then CD just gave us an extra 600k and the best teams should expect to finish at around 16 Million total value.

Now if all your best 22 we’re worth 650k and bench = 1M that still leaves you 800k for bench upgrades
Click to expand...
Another approach which I think the extra trades affords is to go early on some upgrades.

Jumping from a BE of -16 and a 100k price rise to the next player with a BE of -50 or less and add some extra fuel to growing team value as quickly as possible.
Shorting Stocks!

If you did this with 10 trades on rookies between round 5 to 12 while upgrading when bank allows you may get to the finished side quicker and also then allow some sideways trades for getting best 18 during the big bye season (Rounds 12-15).

I think the value of $150k is outdated ‘old school’ and ‘Break Even’ chasing is the ‘New School’.

Improving Points by 20-40 points per player each round during upgrade season will be what I expect others to do with the idea of extra trades.

Patient players may catch up in the post bye part of the season but how far behind will they be?
 
dabombers said:
Ok the analogy wasn’t my best piece of work. It did start to become a bit of a ramble which I admit.

Totally agree that the money in SuperCoach and any fantasy sport (NBA, NFL, FPL etc) worldwide is made by supporting content creators be it YouTube, Patreon or subscription based websites.

The odds of being the one guy to win the big prize doesn’t matter.

Most people now play just to win their cash leagues or against themselves just for a fun hobby to enjoy the great game. With a bit of optimistic dream they can be ‘Highlander’ - There can be only one !!

Some are also obsessed to a OCD type level, and this is where we gather to discuss our addiction.

Every year I say it will be my last but the challenge of being better than last year keeps me trying yet again.

For the content creators I always send appreciation for their work they do and the entertainment some of them provide.

On your point that any combination of strategy could be the special sauce, yeah it changes each year and shows how many different ways there is to play this game.

Loving the healthy debate of different perspectives no bad feelings even if we all don’t 100% see ‘eye to eye’ with each other.
Click to expand...

For me I just do it to beat my partners dad. But also I’m someone who likes to mess with systems and structures and throws myself deep into my hobbies so I’m getting better. Getting near the top last year (finished just outside the top 1000) I’d love to end up in the top 1000 or better at some point.

No hard feelings. I’m just a deeper thinker and when I’ve put a decent amount of thought into an idea I tend to hold quite strongly towards it.

In terms of shorting premiums… I think you’re right. It was something better coaches have done the past few years when premiums got injured and it’s not wasting a trade if you’re maintaining the value of a trade. Ie finding 150k combined value of higher priced player being overpriced and the lower priced player being underpriced seems fair.

I think this year the season is really going to have 5 distinct phases. That everyone will need a plan for.

Rd1-6 opening phase, best 18 4/6 weeks
Rd 7-12 upgrade season. Players racing to full premo as quickly as possible
Phase 3 Byes
Phase 4 holding pattern
Phase 5 finals

I think that’s why finding those cheap midprice premiums is super important.

Having a secure best 18 for Rds 4-6 then boost in rds 7&8 and you can be virtually complete in 10-12 trades via rd 8

Assuming you get lucky, you could have 16 premiums by then (start 12 + 4 upgrades via 6 trades) 6 decent midpricers plus 28 trades out of 38 total trades remaining. (Say 34 since I’m assuming no rd 12 trades)

It’s going to be interesting to try and work out a plan going forward how to find real value if you do start well.
 
Makeshift Park said:
In def line, NWM.
In mid, Martin.
In fwd line, Baker.
Click to expand...
I'm really, really tempted by Izak Rankine but to get him will require to shift my structure massively. I think he will be AA this year, and my gut is he just comes out to start the season and plays some huge games. Sounds like he'll get midfield time without significantly taking away from his time around the goals. I don't really see why he can't get near Shai Bolton's scoring output.
 
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