List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[The Nostradamus]

my fave was when eagles supporters got excited when hawks traded away pick 14 cos they thought they stood their ground

 

[New_Roo]

Backing our system, staying the course and trying to build a core group of players around the clear ELITE prospects we have is not sitting on our arse.

This has to be the number 1 priority.

You know what will ensure we stay shit? Spending significant draft capital and recruiting someone 8 years older than this core of players who is long retired when they peak. In a position we have invested significant draft capital ourselves the last 4 years.


I have no idea why some are so allergic to attempting to trying to develop the significant talent we have on our list. Even in these positions.

Goater and Hardeman have barely scratched the surface at the club, yet we have to bring in not 1, not 2, but 3 players (Fisher, Daniel, Houston) in this position (Not to mention our Captain players there!!!). As well as having the ability to play both Harry Sheezel and Colby McKercher there if required.

If they aren't good enough, they aren't good enough. We replace them then. We don't even know yet....

We have so many other priorities than a player of this age, in this position.

If this was a young KPP, a young small forward or forward half player like Bolton, different story.


Here's another scenario - We recruit Houston and Daniel (ontop of Fisher last year).


Goater and Hardeman have complete breakout seasons, what then?

Goater should be pushing out Lmac.... hardemann needs to start smashing the VFL first. They have to earn the right to play afl, hardemann got games this year purely due to injuries and lack of depth


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[Themanbun]

Wing is a pretty specialised position at AFL level. I don't think it's easy to presume Goater/Hardeman could play it well when they haven't even locked down a half back role.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

I think we could have been used as a stalking horse by Houston's management when the Pies and Blues were still in the race, because the threat of our F1 might have motivated those clubs to make serious offers to Port .

But now they're out of the race, it doesn't make sense.

Weren't we Port's stalking horse? The ugly stepsister with the biggest dowry, hopefully pushing up the price from the more attractive options.
But now, it's a matter of **** off Cinderella, Dan's going to bone us all night!

 

[Tiberius]

How come the Eagles trade thread can go to 553 pages and ours get capped at 400?

 

[Sphynx]

In that scenario fisher plays twos pretty simple.

We need to take the heavy lifting off the kids and allow them to develop to the fullest, at present we run the risk of pushing them to play reactive conservative football in survival mode. Augmenting them with mature talent isn’t as bad as you make iut

My point there is, we have completely wasted list capital in a position we never needed in reality.

Houston is absolutely better than what we have. But the question is, in 2-3 seasons is he going to be that much better as a 30 year old than what Riley Hardeman is going to be for the next 200 games that we need to forgo picking one of the best KPF's or Small Forwards in this draft, a potential 200+ game player in a real list hole?

It's similar to what we probably have done with Goad, had we known Xerri was about to have a breakout season like he had. I doubt we make that pick in that position in the draft this season. Sometimes you need to wait and see what they are after 30-50 games.

If you invest draft capital (particularly top 20 picks), you have to spend the time developing them to determine if we need better, otherwise it's better spent elsewhere.

We have made this mistake continually over the last 10-15 years.

We go through periods of picking a glut of KPD's, then it's a glut of medium forwards, then it's a glut of midfielders, then it's a glut of half back flankers.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Makeshift Park]

Goater and Hardeman have barely scratched the surface at the club, yet we have to bring in not 1, not 2, but 3 players (Fisher, Daniel, Houston) in this position (Not to mention our Captain players there!!!). As well as having the ability to play both Harry Sheezel and Colby McKercher there if required.

If they aren't good enough, they aren't good enough. We replace them then. We don't even know yet....

One of the prevailing messages Clarko has made about our list build is that he prizes versatile players.

Pretty much the first thing Fisher said when he became a Roo was that Clarko sought him out because he could play different roles. Seems obvious he'll go forward next year, given our small forward stocks.

Houston has rotated between the back flank and midfield.

Goater and Hardeman will be able to rotate through the wing.

If anything, having Houston and Daniel around would boost their development.

 

[Flawed Genius]

Who are we talking about? Houston? He's not Luke Hodge is he? Who Brisbane acquired for a packet of chips btw.

Brisbane got Hodge at 32 or 33 years old. Houston is four or five years younger. He might not be a triple NS medalist but he's also not a slouch.

Is Hardeman going to learn more off Houston than LDU, or Sheezel, or Larkey, or Xerri? Possibly, because of the position.

Not possibly. Absolutely he will. Positioning, rebounding, where to run, where to kick it and to whom, all of that. I can scarcely think of a better mentor for Hardeman if you're talking a player in his prime that plays the same position that's available for us to pick up. Getting Houston does not make Hardeman irrelevant and certainly doesn't mean the two can't share the field at the same time. Goater is no guarantee to ever come back and be a great player and the idea is for him to end up a wingman anyway is it not.

But at what cost?

I love draft picks as much as anyone but in my view there comes a time when we have to stop hitting the magic beans button and actually put building blocks in place around our young stars and elite prospects. If the choice is - after five years of being hot rubbish - to trade an entirely speculative pick in a compromised draft for a genuinely elite HBF who can help teach Hardeman and Goater and Sheezel and Archer AND immediately contribute on field AND plug the gaps in our 25-30 year old age demographic, OR hold that pick and hope that our talent ID team manages to pick the eyes out of said compromised draft to take whatd likely be a KPF that isnt ready for 4-5 years anyway..

For me it is an easy choice

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Like when Eagles dropped from 2 to 8 to get Gibney, good luck to them if they can get two players they really wanted for the price of one pick. But - unlike us - they really need more quality young midfielders to develop with Reid, so the opportunity not to grab one of the best in a mid-heavy top end seems like a high cost.

 

[DocSholl]

One thing about Houston is he's impressive up the ground and has some good goal sense too.

Can defend as well. He's a very, very good player.

 

[New_Roo]

I actually didn't think it was that bad; they slid back 9 spots and got Baker and Owies. My understanding is that in this year's drafts, there isn't a significant difference between pick 2 and 10 anyway.

Yes and if going for Allan anyway they still can at 12


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[Sphynx]

Like when Eagles dropped from 2 to 8 to get Gibney, good luck to them if they can get two players they really wanted for the price of one pick. But - unlike us - they really need more quality young midfielders to develop with Reid, so the opportunity not to grab one of the best in a mid-heavy top end seems like a high cost.

They may view Allan as gettable there, who they may have higher on their board.

A big risk and not something I necessarily agree with for a few reasons.

 

[justroyal]

F1 + 25 for Caleb and Sanders, cmon brady

 

[Event Horizon]

I'd be furious about the trade if I was a West Coast fan.

it all depends on the draft. As we know this draft is very different with no clear standouts and is very deep. With the top 5 all being Victorian Mids, West Coast may well have someone in mind who will be there at pick 12. The deal isn't as bad as everyone is making it out to be IMO.

 

[nicko74]

did i cook?


NMFC give: pick 2

MELB give: pick 5/pick 9





NMFC give: pick 44

SYD give: Luke Parker





NMFC give: future first, pick 25

GC give: pick 13, pick 23







NMFC give: pick 23, future third

WB give: Caleb Daniel, pick 48







NMFC give: pick 5, pick 13

PA give: Dan Houston

2 first rounders for Houston?

 

[JGreezy]

Wing is a pretty specialised position at AFL level. I don't think it's easy to presume Goater/Hardeman could play it well when they haven't even locked down a half back role.

Sure, but we can cross that bridge when we have 4 gun HBFs. If they are that good that we regret having Houston then we will find a way to play them.

 

[New_Roo]

it all depends on the draft. As we know this draft is very different with no clear standouts and is very deep. With the top 5 all being Victorian Mids, West Coast may well have someone in mind who will be there at pick 12. The deal isn't as bad as everyone is making it out to be IMO.

Yes Allan then there is Gerryn


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[Merlin007]

saints obviously rate the depth in the draft

 

[Event Horizon]

Ralph wants to death ride us so hard next year.

If we do it for Pick 10 on it's own, we deserve everything that comes our way next year via the media.

Can't complain.

The highest pick that should be considered for that deal is GC's pick 6.

If that doesn't work, you don't dilute your assets.

Our F1 is one of the most valuable draft assets possible, particularly with so many Academy prospects. It seems Brady/Clarko are taking the opposite view which is possibly illogical, as our pick may be one of the one few that precede some or the best academy prospects.

or they can back themselves to finally win some games, making that future pick far less relevant.

 

[Sphynx]

I love draft picks as much as anyone but in my view there comes a time when we have to stop hitting the magic beans button and actually put building blocks in place around our young stars and elite prospects. If the choice is - after five years of being hot rubbish - to trade an entirely speculative pick in a compromised draft for a genuinely elite HBF who can help teach Hardeman and Goater and Sheezel and Archer AND immediately contribute on field AND plug the gaps in our 25-30 year old age demographic, OR hold that pick and hope that our talent ID team manages to pick the eyes out of said compromised draft to take whatd likely be a KPF that isnt ready for 4-5 years anyway..

For me it is an easy choice

Tell me what has been magic beans about top 14 picks where we have been concerned?

Other than Phillips in a Covid destroyed year.

These have been our top 14 picks (which is what Houston will cost + more)

McKercher (2)
Duursma (4)
Sheezel (3)
Wardlaw (4)
Horne-Francis (1)
Phillips (3)
Powell (13)
2019* (traded out of the strongest draft of the last 10 years ~ Caleb Serong taken at our natural pick)
Thomas (8)
LDU (4)
Simpkin (12)



What exactly is magic beans about the above? They make up a large majority of our current best players and best and fairest prospects.

 

[Disco Dew]

Tell me what has been magic beans about top 14 picks where we have been concerned?

Other than Phillips in a Covid destroyed year.

These have been our top 14 picks (which is what Houston will cost + more)

McKercher (2)
Duursma (4)
Sheezel (3)
Wardlaw (4)
Horne-Francis (1)
Phillips (3)
Powell (13)
2019* (traded out of the strongest draft of the last 10 years ~ Caleb Serong taken at our natural pick)
Thomas (8)
LDU (4)
Simpkin (12)



What exactly is magic beans about the above? They make up a large majority of our current best players and best and fairest prospects.

And yet we’re still anchored to the bottom of the ladder*


*not saying Houston changes that, just talking shit

 

[Makeshift Park]

Wing is a pretty specialised position at AFL level. I don't think it's easy to presume Goater/Hardeman could play it well when they haven't even locked down a half back role.

Agree, but its an option available, and an example that demonstrates how its a fallacy to suggest we definitely won't have space for them in the best 23 if Houston was traded in.

It seems to me that a lot of these debates are proxies for two distinct camps around here.

One wants us to become immediately competitive, sees that as a strategic priority in itself, and is prepared to use draft capital to make that happen.

The other wants to retain a draft-heavy focus at all costs because that's what we set out to do back in 2017 and they think any substantial deviation from that risks throwing the project further off-course.

There's obviously pros and cons for either, but clearly I'm in the former camp and Houston helps with that mission.

 

[Sphynx]

And yet we’re still anchored to the bottom of the ladder*


*not saying Houston changes that, just talking shit

Do you think it's the fault of the likes of LDU or Sheezel?

Is it quite possible we are where we are because we are still paying for mistakes made 10+ years ago?


I'd argue hitting the draft and the selections we have made in the last few years have mitigated the potential even bigger disaster.

 

[Kanga1996]

Gabelich saying Pick 25 for Caleb Daniel

5

Caleb Daniel

Age

29

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

is still a real chance.

F***ing hell.

That’s a shocking deal for us considering Geelong are offering pick 17 for Smith.


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