Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I just don’t understand how a 193cm key defender is suddenly a top 10 lock. There hasn’t been a key defender under 195cm taken in the draft in the past 10 years.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I just don’t understand how a 193cm key defender is suddenly a top 10 lock. There hasn’t been a key defender under 195cm taken in the draft in the past 10 years.

Because he's a gun.

But also, Alex Tauru is 193cm and went at 10 just last year

 

[bendigoblues]

Im more than a little annoyed about this possible decision to change father son rules - if its going to change, you have to announce it years in advance, no diff than brining in a new team. Teams plan with pick swaps, draft strategies etc years in advance and of course the fact that as soon as Carlton get a chance to get a gun they want to change things.

a side note, St Kilda suddenly my second least liked team behind Ess.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Because he's a gun.

But also, Alex Tauru is 193cm and went at 10 just last year

Taura was generally a bit of everything though. He'd played back, forward, even on ball in his U/18s year. He was generally viewed as a high upside, could be anything type. We'll see what he becomes over time. He could well be that Jeremy Howe type who settles into primarily being a defender who plays above his height.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Taura was generally a bit of everything though. He'd played back, forward, even on ball in his U/18s year. He was generally viewed as a high upside, could be anything type. We'll see what he becomes over time. He could well be that Jeremy Howe type who settles into primarily being a defender who plays above his height.

Either way, Dean is easily the best KPD in this draft and his rankings of late are more than fair.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if he'd shot up to 195-196cm either, he looked far bigger than 193 in the games I watched him in. Could have just been his fantastic leap playing tricks though.

 

[Coona Blues]

Either way, Dean is easily the best KPD in this draft and his rankings of late are more than fair.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if he'd shot up to 195-196cm either, he looked far bigger than 193 in the games I watched him in. Could have just been his fantastic leap playing tricks though.

Late birthday, almost guaranteed to grow a bit. With Weitering and O’Farrell, we don’t need a 200cm type anyway. His athleticism beside HOF in a similar vein is team shaping. HOF getting a bit of love, but very few posters have twigged just how good he is. Will retire discussed in the same pantheon as Doull, Southby and he who must not now be named.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

I just don’t understand how a 193cm key defender is suddenly a top 10 lock. There hasn’t been a key defender under 195cm taken in the draft in the past 10 years.

"IF" he gets through the preseason without incident, I'd expect him to start Round 1.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Coona Blues & WalshistheGOAT I'd like to run these thoughts by you. I'm becoming pretty pissed at the AFL continually destroying the draft, with some nut job rule changes, but I do agree the draft needs fixing.

1. Father/Son rule remains the same. It should be enshrined in stone and never touched again. That said, if a F/S candidate is bid on in the 1st Round the club MUST use a 1st Round Pick to acquire that candidate. It can't be a mish-mash of 2nd, 3rd & 4th round selections to acquire a 1st Round candidate. It may require a combo of 1st Round and 2nd Round Selection to provide enough points, but so be it. All clubs should be limited to 1 Father/Son selection per round in any one Draft.
2. NGA needs adjustment. Players such as Liam Henry & Ugle-Hagan should not be eligible to quality as NGA prospects. They were indigenous kids who had played footy as kids and were always going to play AFL. Should be reserved for Sudanese, Irish, Fijian, etc. Feel free to expand if you wish.
3. Compo picks for Restricted Free Agents. This adds a genuine impediment to to clubs trying to rebuild. TDK's move results in a 1st Round compo pick to us, but pushes clubs back another notch in the pecking order, yet the club acquiring TDK still retains their 1st Round pick. A better alternative might be that the club acquiring TDK is required to surrender their 1st Round Pick to acquire that player. Clubs can still haggle for a better deal (2 1st Rounders if they can match deal or player & picks etc).
4. Compo picks for Unrestricted Free Agents should be abolished. Full Stop. The End. Clubs have had fair use and access to these players for 10 years. The trade of Unrestricted Free Agents should be exactly that.....unrestricted. No doubt this will wind some people up on here, but the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
5. Northern Academies. Clubs from the Northern States should be entitled to one player from each round based on a Picks/Points scenario. Where more than one candidate in bid on each round would result in the Northern State Club having forfeit on any other bids in that round. Gold Coast now has a very strong list and should now have all extra entitlements withdrawn including list size, cap size and academy territory size.
6. Too many clubs. The current amount of clubs makes it more or less impossible for a club with a poor list to rebuild in a reasonable amount of time. I think 14 would be more sensible amount. I'd strip one out of NSW, QLD, 2 from VIC and forget about Tassie. I think the genuine talent is just being spread too thin and it's affecting the quality of the footy we're seeing. Just my thoughts.

Conclusion.
These suggestions won't solve every issue with the draft and nor will I be ever be able to satisfy everyone's wishes, but it's a starting point. I see the current setup with compo picks, NGA picks, academy picks and the amount of clubs like bloatware on a computer. It slows everything down. This way everyone gets something but it does come at some cost. As for anyone else reading this, feel free to add your own thoughts.

 

[djw1952]

I just don’t understand how a 193cm key defender is suddenly a top 10 lock. There hasn’t been a key defender under 195cm taken in the draft in the past 10 years.

There probably are not that many KPD in this daft that are as good as him, and they say he plays above his height anyway because of his athleticism. His birthday is late in the year so he might make it to 196cm down the track hopefully, and look how Cripps took off after he joined the club, as he was supposed to be 191cm in his draft year and made it to 195cm after his first season or so.

 

[SurreyBlue]

The Smoking Gun - I won’t answer for the 2 you’ve asked but I would like to add my 2 cents.
I like all your suggestions, except for the last, although I agree we have too many clubs.
Unfortunately, to be a national competition, you need all the states with at least two teams.

Father sons pick in the same round won’t work if the FS is picked after you’ve already used the pick for that round. Although I lie it, it’s a big hurdle for this suggestion and can be manipulated.

My suggestion on the last point is more brutal and will not be liked by many but we need to lose Vic teams.
Teams that can’t support themselves. If that is us, so be it. Luckily though, we have the pokies revenue keeping us in the positive but for how long? That money is providing us a profit after it cleared our debt. Sad but it’s all there in black.

If I were a Victorian president in a team struggling to compete financially, I would look at merging.
Would have been smart for one to look at the Tassie option.

 

[Coona Blues]

Coona Blues & WalshistheGOAT I'd like to run these thoughts by you. I'm becoming pretty pissed at the AFL continually destroying the draft, with some nut job rule changes, but I do agree the draft needs fixing.

1. Father/Son rule remains the same. It should be enshrined in stone and never touched again. That said, if a F/S candidate is bid on in the 1st Round the club MUST use a 1st Round Pick to acquire that candidate. It can't be a mish-mash of 2nd, 3rd & 4th round selections to acquire a 1st Round candidate. It may require a combo of 1st Round and 2nd Round Selection to provide enough points, but so be it. All clubs should be limited to 1 Father/Son selection per round in any one Draft.
2. NGA needs adjustment. Players such as Liam Henry & Ugle-Hagan should not be eligible to quality as NGA prospects. They were indigenous kids who had played footy as kids and were always going to play AFL. Should be reserved for Sudanese, Irish, Fijian, etc. Feel free to expand if you wish.
3. Compo picks for Restricted Free Agents. This adds a genuine impediment to to clubs trying to rebuild. TDK's move results in a 1st Round compo pick to us, but pushes clubs back another notch in the pecking order, yet the club acquiring TDK still retains their 1st Round pick. A better alternative might be that the club acquiring TDK is required to surrender their 1st Round Pick to acquire that player. Clubs can still haggle for a better deal (2 1st Rounders if they can match deal or player & picks etc).
4. Compo picks for Unrestricted Free Agents should be abolished. Full Stop. The End. Clubs have had fair use and access to these players for 10 years. The trade of Unrestricted Free Agents should be exactly that.....unrestricted. No doubt this will wind some people up on here, but the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
5. Northern Academies. Clubs from the Northern States should be entitled to one player from each round based on a Picks/Points scenario. Where more than one candidate in bid on each round would result in the Northern State Club having forfeit on any other bids in that round. Gold Coast now has a very strong list and should now have all extra entitlements withdrawn including list size, cap size and academy territory size.
6. Too many clubs. The current amount of clubs makes it more or less impossible for a club with a poor list to rebuild in a reasonable amount of time. I think 14 would be more sensible amount. I'd strip one out of NSW, QLD, 2 from VIC and forget about Tassie. I think the genuine talent is just being spread too thin and it's affecting the quality of the footy we're seeing. Just my thoughts.

Conclusion.
These suggestions won't solve every issue with the draft and nor will I be ever be able to satisfy everyone's wishes, but it's a starting point. I see the current setup with compo picks, NGA picks, academy picks and the amount of clubs like bloatware on a computer. It slows everything down. This way everyone gets something but it does come at some cost. As for anyone else reading this, feel free to add your own thoughts.

It is late, but I will respond.

Father/Son has been a rort for many clubs at the pointy end under the recent system. My belief is that the AFL has it very close to right with the set up we will experience for the first time this year. The revised DVI is good, to perhaps a little harsh. Time will prove or otherwise the scale (my view is it has been a little over corrected, but is fairer than previous). The 10% discount I believe to be fair, given a player’s position can be dictated by a vindictive opposition bid which can be mischievous as opposed to genuine.

Absolutely clubs should be forced to match a bid with comparative draft picks, not the combination of token picks that has been the norm in recent years. The ability to trade premium picks for a plethora of late picks to match bids while banking a top pick before a bid is the biggest rort. Having said that a club should be able to utilise its natural pick prior to a bid if that is the way it falls. Not sure how to word any restrictions beyond a club’s natural picks.

The NGA classifications need to be tightened. The one parent qualification for ethnicity is on the nose if the other parent has history in the game. Similarly the indigenous component should only apply to players identified from remote communities, nit urban dwelling kids with dramatically diluted ethnicity. The ridiculous concept of Cody Walker being NGA eligible just should not happen.

I am more in favour of the Northern Academies than most. The draft hand enjoyed by the Gold Coast Suns has been skewed as they came off the back of increased list concessions up until very recently. The ability to bank late picks to grab a ludicrous amount of premium players was somewahat a rort. Their list size is now in line with other clubs and as with F/S, the draft index has been updated quite severely. Equity should exist from this year with the new index.

I am not in favour of limiting father/son or academy candidates. If a club has multiple eligible players there should be no restriction. The revised index ensures they pay for their prospects. To get that draft capital, they must give up players or restructure from future picks. A little creativity should be OK as it will come home to roost eventually. Trading out of a future draft or sacrificing players who draw picks deemed to have draft value should be equitable and permitted in my opinion.

Clearly for clubs like Brisbane and Sydney who have access to both academy and father son players the players should be treated the same. Clearly there is some scope for academy and indeed father/sons to be “hidden” from other clubs through their junior careers to obtain a discount. The proposed scrapping of father son or academy eligibility at the pointy end of the draft is total garbage. It should be luck of the draw. The legacy father son candidates should not be excluded from joining their father’s club because they show greater promise as a youngster. This just promotes “tanking” and will detract from the pathways.

It could be argued to restrict the Northern Academies haul of players off the back of the Suns recent bounty, but I believe the rules and index taking effect this year will balance the situation. Let’s not forget that the Brisbane Lions off F/S and academy picks have banked multiple premium midfielder ps in recent drafts and get another this year. Let us not also forget that while they are stockpiling mids, they are missing KPP, rucks, specialist flankers etc that they subsequently will have to utilise trade or free agency to acquire.

Compensation for free agents is a contentious thing. I don’t think clubs should receive compensation as currently after their natural picks. The financial components from deals can be skewed ridiculously. Conversely, it could be argued that the $1.8m for TDK over eight years should tally two first rounders given previous compensation. It is a mine field. Given that it takes eight years to reach free agency, it is perhaps prudent that compensation only kicks in at the end of the first round, so as not to disadvantage other clubs. Having said that situations that allow St Kilda with a war chest to put a ludicrous deal to a slow developing ruckman entering his prime in his eighth year of footy as an investment matures as opposed to a running player of the NWM ilk who peaks in his second or third year is incongruous.

It is very untidy. There is a strong argument that deals such as the TDK one which blow the thresholds away should produce more compensation. (I hope the AFL calculate nett loss with TDK and SOS which would absolutely give us two band one picks)

I would have no great problem if the system corrected to what it will be this year remains as is for a decent period, with the exception of NGA qualification guidelines which are too loose around one parent and (potentially) diluted ethnicity.

 

[Stamos]

Absolutely clubs should be forced to match a bid with comparative draft picks, not the combination of token picks that has been the norm in recent years. The ability to trade premium picks for a plethora of late picks to match bids while banking a top pick before a bid is the biggest rort. Having said that a club should be able to utilise its natural pick prior to a bid if that is the way it falls. Not sure how to word any restrictions beyond a club’s natural picks.

Totally disagree with this.

If you're holding a pick that other clubs value enough to trade you excess points for, why shouldn't you be able to trade? The AFL shouldn't be restricting trade when there are willing buyers.
Again, this is an 'issue' created by the previous DVI being so incorrectly valued. With the new points market means it is much harder to get these sorts of trades done, and late picks have little to no value.

People suggesting certain restrictions on types of matching are missing the whole reason of having the DVI, and the points market. If the DVI is set correctly (and it looks a hell of a lot better now), then other restrictions are irrelevant.

 

[Sector 7G]

I just don’t understand how a 193cm key defender is suddenly a top 10 lock. There hasn’t been a key defender under 195cm taken in the draft in the past 10 years.

Because it is a weak draft and he probably would have gone in the 20s last year. This year we have a ruck forward that didn't do much in the Champs and is tipped to go 2. Last year the AA FF who dominated in the VFL games he played when in the 30s

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Totally disagree with this.

If you're holding a pick that other clubs value enough to trade you excess points for, why shouldn't you be able to trade? The AFL shouldn't be restricting trade when there are willing buyers.
Again, this is an 'issue' created by the previous DVI being so incorrectly valued. With the new points market means it is much harder to get these sorts of trades done, and late picks have little to no value.

People suggesting certain restrictions on types of matching are missing the whole reason of having the DVI, and the points market. If the DVI is set correctly (and it looks a hell of a lot better now), then other restrictions are irrelevant.

Not to mention to require certain picks/range to be held is unfair if a trade can't be done.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Coona Blues & WalshistheGOAT I'd like to run these thoughts by you. I'm becoming pretty pissed at the AFL continually destroying the draft, with some nut job rule changes, but I do agree the draft needs fixing.

1. Father/Son rule remains the same. It should be enshrined in stone and never touched again. That said, if a F/S candidate is bid on in the 1st Round the club MUST use a 1st Round Pick to acquire that candidate. It can't be a mish-mash of 2nd, 3rd & 4th round selections to acquire a 1st Round candidate. It may require a combo of 1st Round and 2nd Round Selection to provide enough points, but so be it. All clubs should be limited to 1 Father/Son selection per round in any one Draft.
2. NGA needs adjustment. Players such as Liam Henry & Ugle-Hagan should not be eligible to quality as NGA prospects. They were indigenous kids who had played footy as kids and were always going to play AFL. Should be reserved for Sudanese, Irish, Fijian, etc. Feel free to expand if you wish.
3. Compo picks for Restricted Free Agents. This adds a genuine impediment to to clubs trying to rebuild. TDK's move results in a 1st Round compo pick to us, but pushes clubs back another notch in the pecking order, yet the club acquiring TDK still retains their 1st Round pick. A better alternative might be that the club acquiring TDK is required to surrender their 1st Round Pick to acquire that player. Clubs can still haggle for a better deal (2 1st Rounders if they can match deal or player & picks etc).
4. Compo picks for Unrestricted Free Agents should be abolished. Full Stop. The End. Clubs have had fair use and access to these players for 10 years. The trade of Unrestricted Free Agents should be exactly that.....unrestricted. No doubt this will wind some people up on here, but the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
5. Northern Academies. Clubs from the Northern States should be entitled to one player from each round based on a Picks/Points scenario. Where more than one candidate in bid on each round would result in the Northern State Club having forfeit on any other bids in that round. Gold Coast now has a very strong list and should now have all extra entitlements withdrawn including list size, cap size and academy territory size.
6. Too many clubs. The current amount of clubs makes it more or less impossible for a club with a poor list to rebuild in a reasonable amount of time. I think 14 would be more sensible amount. I'd strip one out of NSW, QLD, 2 from VIC and forget about Tassie. I think the genuine talent is just being spread too thin and it's affecting the quality of the footy we're seeing. Just my thoughts.

Conclusion.
These suggestions won't solve every issue with the draft and nor will I be ever be able to satisfy everyone's wishes, but it's a starting point. I see the current setup with compo picks, NGA picks, academy picks and the amount of clubs like bloatware on a computer. It slows everything down. This way everyone gets something but it does come at some cost. As for anyone else reading this, feel free to add your own thoughts.

Frankly I think the whole system is broken and I'd rather go back to zones. Don't mind some of the changes but it's never going to be a perfect system when the inequality between clubs is as large as it is.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Frankly I think the whole system is broken and I'd rather go back to zones. Don't mind some of the changes but it's never going to be a perfect system when the inequality between clubs is as large as it is.

Careful, you know the zone allocation will be done by the AFL and won’t be our old zone. Our NGA zone should give you a good indication of what may be given.

 

[bradfisher14]

Careful, you know the zone allocation will be done by the AFL and won’t be our old zone. Our NGA zone should give you a good indication of what may be given.

Do you have a map of the current zones? I can't find one anywhere.

 

[Pablito]

Grlj, Cumming and Farrow will all be around our pick. Would be happy with any of them.

Farrow a no go for me. His kicking is overrated. And considering that's his one wood its a worry.

Grilj and Cumming i really like. Both aren't above average kicks but they've got other attributes that you can see make them elite prospects.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

There probably are not that many KPD in this daft that are as good as him, and they say he plays above his height anyway because of his athleticism. His birthday is late in the year so he might make it to 196cm down the track hopefully, and look how Cripps took off after he joined the club, as he was supposed to be 191cm in his draft year and made it to 195cm after his first season or so.

188cm in his draft year from memory, I’d have to look it back up…

188cm 88kg rookie me central draft profile…

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

The Smoking Gun - I won’t answer for the 2 you’ve asked but I would like to add my 2 cents.
I like all your suggestions, except for the last, although I agree we have too many clubs.
Unfortunately, to be a national competition, you need all the states with at least two teams.

Father sons pick in the same round won’t work if the FS is picked after you’ve already used the pick for that round. Although I lie it, it’s a big hurdle for this suggestion and can be manipulated.

My suggestion on the last point is more brutal and will not be liked by many but we need to lose Vic teams.
Teams that can’t support themselves. If that is us, so be it. Luckily though, we have the pokies revenue keeping us in the positive but for how long? That money is providing us a profit after it cleared our debt. Sad but it’s all there in black.

If I were a Victorian president in a team struggling to compete financially, I would look at merging.
Would have been smart for one to look at the Tassie option.

Plus 1…
There will be another team also added in the future 20 team competition, then everyone plays each other once…
Gather round most likely stays on a rotating basis all clubs play a different team every year…

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'm heading off on a big overseas adventure today so not sure I'll be able to get much reception to do such a list in coming weeks. As it currently stands this would be my rankings for this years draft.

1- Cooper Duff-Tytler
2- Zeke Uwland
3- Willem Duursma
4- Dylan Patterson
5- Josh Lindsay
6- Dan Annable
7- Harry Dean
8- Sam Grlj
9- Sam Cumming
10- Aiden Schubert
11- Oliver Greeves
12- Jacob Farrow
13- Mitch Marsh
14- Jevan Philippou
15- Dyson Sharp
16- Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves
17 - Louis Emmett
18 - Jack Ison
19 - Sam Swadling
20 - Max Kondogiannis
21 - Cameron Nairn
22 - Max King

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

23 - Lachie Dovaston
24 - Xavier Taylor
25 - Beau Addinsall
26 - Lachie Carmichael
27 - Talor Bryne
28 - Jesse Mellor
29 - Taj Murray
30 - Harley Barker

Those in bold are players I think would fit our list needs well this off season if we got the chance to draft them.

 

[Coona Blues]

I'm heading off on a big overseas adventure today so not sure I'll be able to get much reception to do such a list in coming weeks. As it currently stands this would be my rankings for this years draft.

1- Cooper Duff-Tytler
2- Zeke Uwland
3- Willem Duursma
4- Dylan Patterson
5- Josh Lindsay
6- Dan Annable
7- Harry Dean
8- Josh Lindsay
9- Sam Grlj
10- Sam Cumming
11- Aiden Schubert
12- Oliver Greeves
13- Jacob Farrow
14- Mitch Marsh
15- Jevan Philippou
16- Dyson Sharp
17- Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves
18 - Louis Emmett
19 - Jack Ison
20 - Sam Swadling
21 - Max Kondogiannis
22 - Cameron Nairn
23 - Max King
24 - Lachie Dovaston
25 - Xavier Taylor
26 - Beau Addinsall
27 - Lachie Carmichael
28 - Talor Bryne
29 - Jesse Mellor
30 - Taj Murray

Those in bold are players I think would fit our list needs well this off season if we got the chance to draft them.

Lindsay gets two gigs. Sharp at #16, wow. Couple of others too low, you don’t like inside mids?

Going to be a very subjective year other than that so reluctant to knock some of the others I disagree with a bit.

Enjoy your trip, will be strange if you aren’t around approaching the draft mate.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

gets two gigs. Sharp at #16, wow. Couple of others too low, you don’t like inside mids?

Going to be a very subjective year other than that so reluctant to knock some of the others I disagree with a bit.

Enjoy your trip, will be strange if you aren’t around approaching the draft mate.

Oops, fixed up the Lindsay double up

Sharp and some of the other inside mids I consider a bit too vanilla for the way the games going. No doubt a quality kid but not sure slow inside ball winners are going to be held in as high regard as previous years.

Should be back in time for the draft but we'll see how we go!

 

[No1Suspect]

Frankly I think the whole system is broken and I'd rather go back to zones. Don't mind some of the changes but it's never going to be a perfect system when the inequality between clubs is as large as it is.

The comp is even enough now that all academies should be simply afl affiliated. Keep the fs rule but that's it.

 

[navybluesince75]

Because it is a weak draft and he probably would have gone in the 20s last year. This year we have a ruck forward that didn't do much in the Champs and is tipped to go 2. Last year the AA FF who dominated in the VFL games he played when in the 30s

While i agree with your assessment of it being a weak draft the player you are referring to here sliding to 30 is on Richmond they effectively passed on him 6 times

if the eagles take Duff Tyler at pick 2 they are crazy because they need mids not talls