Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

So if pick 26 is worth 729 and north bids on -10% that = 656.1 and our pick 28 is worth 677 so at this stage we have enough with that pick alone? And ideally nobody bids on him next 2 picks and we can pick a player and then take Ison when he is bid on after that?

84 point discount, not 10% after pick 18.

 

[josephone]

It is not really growing bananas in the desert. GC Academy is now a stronger draft pool than WA, SA and Vic Country and only getting stronger. They have exclusive access.

It was a desert, but it isn't now. And that's thanks to the work they have put in.

And they don't have exclusive access. They have first right of refusal, and they have to pay a price for that right. The benefits flow to other clubs as has been detailed on the last few pages. Draft picks, traded players etc.

 

[Sector 7G]

No argument about the advantage, Opium. But it is a growth region and for the good of the game it can’t be allowed to regress. So how do you maintain the health of the game in southeast Queensland if the academies are disbanded?

Who said that the Academies need to be disbanded? They can easily be funded and run by the AFL.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The underlying issue is also money & Govt influence. This is rarely discussed or known but one of the biggest departments in the AFL is "Government Relations" They have a large team of ex Power Brokers, Advisors etc that all they do is converse with Fed & State MPs daily to get money and things like grounds, training facilties. It's massive

For this it is always quid pro quo. Government will ask for things like Teams in areas (marginal seats), Indigenous support, TV coverage and things they can promote and the AFL will get things and money for what they want

Because of this the AFL system is massively comprimised and always will be

I don't think many realise how huge it is. Nothing is done by accident

Only need to look at Albo and Allen turning up at Dingley last week.. Our taxes have funded this development with some perceived benefit to the community which always ends up a complete load of BS..

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

Flanders got them pick 7.
Ainsworth got them pick 29.

Budarick + 70 got them pick 37.

Pick 7 + 8 + 37 + F1 + F2 got them Trac + 24 + 28

Last year, they gave up Lukosius + Atkins + pick 13 + pick 29 + pick 50
for
Noble + pick 39 + Port & Pies 1st pick for this year.

All up they lost:

Port's 1st
Pies 1st
Saints 1st
Their 1st
Their F1
Pick 29
Pick 37

So let's not pretend they got Trac + 4 top 20 picks this year for peanuts...

As for us, yes we might have lost TDK for less than what we might've got in a trade. But we got more than what we would've got for Jack, that's for sure.

Then look at everything we've brought in, we actually did something similar to GC with pick 9 - traded it for a bunch of picks that net us more points...

We now have more than enough to match a bid on Ison, if he isn't bid on before our next pick, we get another top 30 player in this year's draft, plus we have North's F2 as well.

What exactly would you have preferred here?

This post shows how much better the suns list management team is than ours, over the last two years they traded out players like Lukosious, Ainsworth, Flanders and Budarick for maximum value (Atkins purely a salary dump).

I could argue none of those players would be in their best 22 from next year. At the same time they added two stars in Rioli and Petracca plus another player of need in Noble. Yet they still managed to bring in 5 top 18 picks over 2 years including a picks 2 and 4 this year.

We on the other hand have lost Curnow, Dekoning, Silvagni and Kennedy over two years and only have Dean, O’ffarrell, Hayward and minor pick upgrades to show for it.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Allow the other states to have these academies as well.. They work, why would you take it away, but give the Vic, WA & SA clubs zones they can pull from. Say North could have the entire NT, imagine what that would do for indigenous development.

There's an attitudinal issue with the VIC clubs that prevents it from working that way - give the VIC clubs academy zones (ala NGA...) and they'll just sit on their hands and wait for a gun player to fall in their lap. They're not going to see a massive investment in the academy as an efficient use of time and funds, insofar as how much they'll benefit, and as such they're not going to try. Token effort, take the occasional windfall.

The northern clubs are combating the consistent "go-home" factor that seems to pull quality players they draft back to VIC. They know the best way to combat that is to improve the pool of draftworthy local players, and getting priority access to those players is the extra carrot.

As long as the DVI is set up in a way that ensure a mid-table club who want to secure multiple first rounders has to either kick in either picks from multiple years, or picks garnered by trading out AFL-standard talent, then it's working. A top-ranked side will need to work harder again, while lower-ranked sides will have an easier time of it. Fair.

 

[Blue__Balls]

This post shows how much better the suns list management team is than ours over the last two years they traded out players like Lukosious, Ainsworth, Flanders and Budarick for maximum value (Atkins purely a salary dump).
I could argue none of those players would be in their best 22 from next year. At the same time they added two stars in Rioli and Petracca plus another player of need in Noble. Yet they still managed to bring in 5 top 18 picks over 2 years including a picks 2 and 4 this year.

We on the other hand have lost Curnow, Dekoning, Silvagni and Kennedy over two years and only have Dean, O’ffarrell, Hayward and minor pick upgrades to show for it.

And Ainsworth, and Florent, and Jagga, and Chesser, and the Campos, and Ison, and multiple future first round picks...

But don't let that get in the way of a good tanty.

 

[Stamos]

Who said that the Academies need to be disbanded? They can easily be funded and run by the AFL.

How do you figure?

 

[marcmurphy3]

Who said that the Academies need to be disbanded? They can easily be funded and run by the AFL.

Then it would just be like the normal talent pathways everywhere else. And evidence has shown the club run academies develop talent much better.

 

[katmanblue]

I’m warming to taking Phillipou as payback.

Bid on tylah Williams first or Wes walley

 

[Blue and Silver]

Personally I think we need to go tall if we get a natural pick at 28.

Preference would be Ludowyke then Hetherton and then Emmett based on very limited viewing.

Hmmm.

I thought Ludowyke missed most of the champs, but he played three games, injured in the third, and was a non-factor in the first two.

A bit concerning actually.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Hmmm.

I thought Ludowyke missed most of the champs, but he played three games, injured in the third, and was a non-factor in the first two.

A bit concerning actually.

Did Harry Dean ice him out of one of those?

 

[Sector 7G]

Then it would just be like the normal talent pathways everywhere else. And evidence has shown the club run academies develop talent much better.

The AFL haven't run academies in QLD /NSW so I am not sure what evidence there is? If the AFL does nothing we see that development flounders like it has in WA (pretty sure that is because the WAFL handle it) but what if they actively did something? The AFL needs could easily spend the money and develop players in the Northern states but choose to put it onto the Northern clubs, that they prop up anyways, to spend the money.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Did Harry Dean ice him out of one of those?

Didn't play Country.

Played against SA (blown out) and WA pretty big win.

Not going to count the Allies game as I don't think he was out there that long

 

[KnaveyBlue]

This is just my opinion,
I believe that the academies are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
My concern is that F/S are being categorised as the same, which they are not. As mentioned the academies have 40-60 players at any stage in any year. They produce 4-10 players every draft. How many F/S every draft? 2-4.
I believe that the discount should be different (as in more) for those teams finishing below 8.
Also F/S should not be considered as NGA as that is not what the NGA is supposed to generate.

Yep, the AFL need to decouple F/S from Academies when it comes to compo. The AFL would never do that though because their academies would then be scrutinised in isolation for their impact on compromising drafts. It's much easier AFL to throw F/S in there as well to muddy the water and make it look like some kind of shared issue.

F/S are a comparative rarity, luck of the draw, and a long-established and accepted part of the game. Your old man either played enough games for the club, or he didn't. End of story.

Academies on the otherhand are a complete separate system open to all sorts of manipulation.

The two groups really shouldn't be sharing the same compensation formula.

 

[SurreyBlue]

I see Ritchmond being vocal about missing out on the NGA's and demanding a change.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I see Ritchmond being vocal about missing out on the NGA's and demanding a change.

Last ditch attempt for Cody. Lol

 

[Bluebag13]

I see Ritchmond being vocal about missing out on the NGA's and demanding a change.

bet they wouldnt be saying that if Walker nominated them

 

[Ezayyak]

This is just my opinion,
I believe that the academies are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
My concern is that F/S are being categorised as the same, which they are not. As mentioned the academies have 40-60 players at any stage in any year. They produce 4-10 players every draft. How many F/S every draft? 2-4.
I believe that the discount should be different (as in more) for those teams finishing below 8.
Also F/S should not be considered as NGA as that is not what the NGA is supposed to generate.

My thoughts, exactly. They are not the same and shouldn't be treated as such.

 

[Bfevola]

And the NGA is different to the tradition of father son. No where near as many father sons.

NGA's are getting out of hand. So hope AFL dont look at them as being the same.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Who said that the Academies need to be disbanded? They can easily be funded and run by the AFL.

The same AFL who are roundly criticised around here for mismanagement of the game in many different ways? It would require a massive reorganisation by them to develop the capability to take on the grassroots player development being performed by the academies. I just don’t see them developing the capability to do it.

I do think it might be worth exploring whether the universities could do it, just like the colleges in the States. Working in the tertiary sector, it’s fair to say the universities have never met a dollar they didn’t like. The question might be around development in country areas. But I’d bet the regional campuses would still love a high performance centre attached to them.

 

[DZ4]

Then it would just be like the normal talent pathways everywhere else. And evidence has shown the club run academies develop talent much better.

Do they develop the talent better or do they develop them to their own systems so they slot in seamlessly?

 

[Monty1978]

I sat next to him at a Spirit of Carlton meeting couple of weeks ago, had the jacket and collar up, it's the signature look.

Had a good chat, very nice person, clearly intelligent and funny as well. Club has chosen well by the looks of it.

I heard from a reliable source , person works for the AFL .. Dean is one of the nicest kids you will ever met … I don’t think that’s surprising being Peter Deans son.

 

[BRADLESTICKS]

And Ainsworth, and Florent, and Jagga, and Chesser, and the Campos, and Ison, and multiple future first round picks...

But don't let that get in the way of a good tanty.

Those deals were done separately from the Curnow, Dekoning, Silvagni and Kennedy losses if you want to add those players then maybe mention the F2 for Ainsworth the F3 for Florent plus his terrible contract, 2 first round picks for Jagga, pick 41 for Chesser pick 43 and 54 for the campos plus whatever Ison costs tonight but don’t let FACTS get in the way of your false narrative.

As for the future first rounders if the swans are a top 6 side both years the picks will roughly be an early 20s pick in 2027 and a pick in the mid 30s in 2027, however that doesn’t include the 10 or so players taken out of that draft as pre-listed 17 year olds and up to 4 auctioned off in a mini draft as part of Tasmania’s concessions so in reality we will be getting a player in their 18th year who would normally be ranked as a mid 40s pick.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Do they develop the talent better or do they develop them to their own systems so they slot in seamlessly?

Better.