Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I’ve heard we are putting pressure on with a Dean bid to trade 6 plus seconds for 9 and 11. Probably a win win for both clubs but you’d think would happen live on the night so as to protect you from a Richmond bid before just in case.

How do you get your academy players if you give away a couple of your second rounders?

 

[Jimmae]

Not as a Junior. He was stick thin. Watching Fyfe as a junior I couldn't have imagined he would turn into the brute he did. He looked like a guy who would float through HF and Wing and was strong above his head.

Fyfe was putting up absurd numbers in the WAFL Colts, just wasn't getting as much of a look in at Champs level with Morabito, Lucas, Dunstan, and Swallow being their midfield core, along with Matera, Fasolo, Colyer, and Jamie Cripps in the squad for attacking mobility.

I think one game he had was 34 disposals and 8 goals? Guess enough recruiters didn't see how his mobility and strength would work at AFL level, while not being fond of his kicking technique.

 

[Jimmae]

Wonder if we can turn that Dons trade into something involving pick 5, then produce something that turns West Coast's head. Would likely require some pretty radical thinking from the Essendon camp in terms of their targets, as you'd imagine Sharp, Robey, and Cumming would be off the board by the time they pick with 6 (then 8).

I think between the two of them and maybe a future pick swap with West Coast, we could net enough points to get everything done, but again the only issue would be Melbourne. If the above rumour is right, then after that he could slip all the way to 17 (Dogs' pick once it's live), but probably 15 (GWS pick).

 

[Jimmae]

Moving up in the draft may well be what we end up doing given the anomaly of having two good picks and a strong F/S prospect. However, we need only look 12 months back for how that can backfire, too. We used a TON of capital to get Jagga - and he may well prove to be worth it - and the he went and hurt himself so we got nothing for 2025.

Distilling picks up to get top shelf stuff can get access to the best talents, but also thins out the list. Clearly the Blues need more quality everywhere, more depth.

It’s a bit sexy and exciting to trade up to get some future superstar, but it is putting a lot of chips on just one guy. I hope if we do it we also maintain some balance to keep multiple good talents flowing in for now and the future. Same applies to any potential pursuit of Butters (or similar). It gives us the high of “getting” the superstar, but the opportunity cost is just massive and we might be better to use our cache of draft picks differently.

In this case it's about taking advantage of the bidding system during the live draft to position ourselves as best we can for a bag of picks to rise up in the order by the time we need to use them, while having value prior to the bid.

It's not throwing everything at the kitchen sink like we did last year, it's getting ahead of a wave and paying as little as possible for the two academy players by correctly coordinating with teams looking to move up and down the order in various ways.

 

[bradfisher14]

Not really.
As long as we plan to draft a 3rd player, and Dean is not bid on before 6 (9), we would get an earlier choice of player, plus extra points which would filter from the Dean bid to extra coverage for a Ison bid.

Even if our preferred players go in the first 5 live picks, it would still be a win/win. Unless we want to trade out one of our firsts for a 26R1.

I just really don't want to draft CDT/Sharp. That's what is scaring me about trading up to 6.

 

[Le Archie]

How’s that protect us from a Richmond bid?
Why would you want to pressure clubs when you also have Bewick next year?
Just curious…
Richmond won’t bidding on Dean, so it sounds like “your club” possibly have its own agenda…

I would suggest its not an empty threat and we like Dean at our selection which will be 8/9 on the night after the other academy kids get bid on. We also like your picks 9 and 11. After all none of our key defenders seem to stay on the park for much of the season anyway!

Not sure what Bewick has to do with this? No one is going to pass on Bewick because we didnt bid on your F/S two years prior. If Bewick is rated as a pick 1 a club will bid then. Melbourne for instance did the exact same thing to us last year with Kako, they told us if we didnt trade our pick 9 they would bid at 6. Worked out to everyones benefit in the end.

 

[Le Archie]

Just gets down to what ess want more so than Carlton. I think we'd do that deal in a heartbeat. I can't see anyone bidding on Dean prior to 6. It would just be a bastard act with no particular upside to the club doing it.

Tom Greene for example was rated top 3 in his draft. Slid all the way to 10 I think.

But do ess want 3 picks in the top 11 or 2 picks in the top 6? They might decide the talent doesn't run that deep.

I think its the opposite. The talent is super even from 6-15 and then it drops off that I think they may prefer three cracks in that range instead of two at 5&6.

 

[Bjchan13]

I’ve heard we are putting pressure on with a Dean bid to trade 6 plus seconds for 9 and 11. Probably a win win for both clubs but you’d think would happen live on the night so as to protect you from a Richmond bid before just in case.

 

[Le Archie]

How do you get your academy players if you give away a couple of your second rounders?

I imagine we are going to do some pic splitting of our seconds (we have three) to ensure we can match in the 20s/30s. There is also talk that El Achkar may not be bid on till quite late so only Sweid would require the points.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Not sure I'm following...

So the bombres say - we will bid on Dean so trade pick 6 for pick 9 and 11? If they bid on Dean at 6 we'd still get him but 11 would slide back a bit.

So there's not much pressure being applied. They'd still have to include later picks to make it work.

It takes us out of any chance of using another first round pick, no matter how we intend on using it this year or trading it out for a future first round pick…
Understanding that they have every right to do as they please when nominating a draftee, that’s the way it’s tactically played at times…

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

There is no way to "protect" from a Richmond bid that I can see. If want to they can.

I would rate the chances of rich bidding on Dean at somewhere between 0 and 1%.

Agree totally that’s my point, it’s a hypothetical comment which makes zero sense

 

[Le Archie]

Agree totally that’s my point, it’s a hypothetical comment which makes zero sense

It protects in the sense there’s no point doing the trade pre draft in the event you run the risk of Richmond choosing to bid to mess you around. You don’t do the trade with Essendon until they have passed. That’s all I’m saying.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

 

[ctwenty1]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

Which is why unlikley to be bid on before our pick 9

 

[marcmurphy3]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

Nah.

Wilkie, May, Rance. Plenty of good key defenders around that size. So long as he can become big and strong he'll be fine. Has the frame for it so no great concern there. Also, long arms so no issues with reach.

Worst case scenario he has all the attributes to be a gun 3rd tall with his intercepting and ball use. That said I expect him to become a CHB.

 

[sweethoney]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

Only 2cm shorter than Jacob. Hopefully Harry has a little growing left

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

We're not. Pick 11 will become pick 14 on the night and we'll most likely split it for points unless no one bids on him till that pick... in that case, we'd have some interesting decisions to make...

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

It protects in the sense there’s no point doing the trade pre draft in the event you run the risk of Richmond choosing to bid to mess you around. You don’t do the trade with Essendon until they have passed. That’s all I’m saying.

Okay it protects us incase of a Richmond bid on the night, thanks for clarifying that bit, obviously the chances of this happening are zero percent happening imo…

In your original post i was responding to, your words are, that you are looking to pressure us into a trade swap, that you want our first round picks…

No need to explain waiting until trade night, this i understand it’s commonsense, so basically you will bid on Dean to gain an extra first round pick for yourselves, that’s how I’m seeing it, which is entirely up to your club..

My point being, although you may like Dean, the fact is you will be bidding on a father/son who you know the club will certainly match, therefore some goodwill which may exist between our clubs might take a turn in the future...

All good, cheers…

 

[Bjchan13]

Okay it protects us incase of a Richmond bid on the night, thanks for clarifying that bit, obviously the chances of this happening are zero percent happening imo…

In your original post i was responding to, your words are, that you are looking to pressure us into a trade swap, that you want our first round picks…

No need to explain waiting until trade night, this i understand it’s commonsense, so basically you will bid on Dean to gain an extra first round pick for yourselves, that’s how I’m seeing it, which is entirely up to your club..

My point being, although you may like Dean, the fact is you will be bidding on a father/son who you know the club will certainly match, therefore some goodwill which may exist between our clubs might take a turn in the future...

All good, cheers…

The original post you are responding to is a made up hypothetical that would never happen

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

He measured in at 194cm at the combine recently, but more importantly why would we be concerned?

 

[Blugazi]

If I was West Coast, i'd try and trade Pick 1 to Essendon for 5 and 6, and 2 to Melbourne for 7 and 8. A few second rounders going back the other way perhaps.

I reckon Essendon will be after Duursma, and the Dees were keen on Robey but could also use Duff-Tytler.

West Coast just need to get more talent through the door, like Richmond last year.

 

[ctwenty1]

If I was West Coast, i'd try and trade Pick 1 to Essendon for 5 and 6, and 2 to Melbourne for 7 and 8. A few second rounders going back the other way perhaps.

I reckon Essendon will be after Duursma, and the Dees were keen on Robey but could also use Duff-Tytler.

West Coast just need to get more talent through the door, like Richmond last year.

I reckon essendon and, to a lesser extent, melbourne also need quality players coming through the door

Woudl imagine WCE may only do one of these deals as opposed to both

 

[Jimmae]

The original post you are responding to is a made up hypothetical that would never happen

Exactly, you'd be giving us 5, 21 and 30 for 9, 11, and 43... right? Right?

That would actually be fair if you did want to capitalise on the talent spread that does exist in this section of the draft. You need quality inside mids but I think you're at best getting access to one of the top tier ones at your pick.

 

[agro]

He measured in at 194cm at the combine recently, but more importantly why would we be concerned?

At least he’s not 189cm.

 

[Bletch]

Exactly, you'd be giving us 5, 21 and 30 for 9, 11, and 43... right? Right?

That would actually be fair if you did want to capitalise on the talent spread that does exist in this section of the draft. You need quality inside mids but I think you're at best getting access to one of the top tier ones at your pick.

A lot would depend on what Cold Goats and Brissy have done with their picks. If they've traded out 15, 17 and 18, suddenly that pick 21 is 24. So we'd have 24 and ~29 to match Dean. A bid earlier than 11 would then eat in to 54 (which by then might be in the early 40s). We'd get something back, but probably not enough to match Ison.

I think we might need to get a third club involved. Not sure what that would look like though.