Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Pablito]

Poor man's Watson is a fairly apt comparison for mine. Plays very similar to Watson but not as gifted athletically and isn't as skilled imo.

He'd definitely be an improvement on some of our small forwards stocks but when comparing him to Butler, Neocleous and Prasad next year he doesn't really stick out as an enticing prospect for me.

I'd trade 9+11 for Butler in a heartbeat if he were in this draft. Elite speed, elite strength for a small, huge leap, tough as anything too and kicks bags on the regular.

Shocking take.

Top 3 of all time in the agility test.
4th this year in the running vertical jump.
5th this year in the vertical jump.

You could argue that he's not as skilled potentially, but he's definitely not a poor mans Watson. An upgrade athletically if anything.

 

[ctwenty1]

Suspected you may have been an early adopter

Jim is his own AI

 

[Pablito]

I think if our second pick moves down like we expect and we hold it into the mid-late teens. I'd go with Archie Ludowyke.

Fits a need, has fallen down the draft order as he missed a huge chunk of the year with a PCL. Lovely set shot and at 197cm moves really well.

I really like Dovaston and Lindsay also but not sure either are a need with what we've brought in during the off-season.

Also Gresham as a rookie would be an astute move.

 

[Stamos]

Yep, trade up for a higher pick plus later picks, then with that higher pick offer it up for a swap next year plus some later picks, then try and draft Dean and Ison with the leftovers... good in theory, but being able to execute it seems almost impossible.
Just my preference for our situation

The future picks on offer for a higher pick would be pretty similar as for #9. The only difference would be as a possible live trade, but then it would have to essentially be a 3-way live trade, which isn’t realistic. So rather than bother trying to trade up, you would just try to trade out.
It sounds like we want the extra player this year though.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Shocking take.

Top 3 of all time in the agility test.
4th this year in the running vertical jump.
5th this year in the vertical jump.

You could argue that he's not as skilled potentially, but he's definitely not a poor mans Watson. An upgrade athletically if anything.

I choose to use my eyes when judging a players athleticism rather than controlled testing. Look at Motlop... Apparently he's our fastest player according to GPS data, yet you watch him play and he has the acceleration of a 2 stroke lawnmower working it's way through knee high weeds.

Shai Bolton is another. Got beaten by players like Sam Powell Pepper and Matt Guelfi in the agility test... No test on earth would ever convince me that either of those players are more agile than Shai Bolton. They aren't accurate tests of genuine game day athleticism for a variety of reasons.

From games I've watched Dovaston doesn't have the same athletic talent as Watson, simple as that. Watson was faster, more agile, had more penetration in his kicks and could jump higher. Tests at the combine aren't going to change my opinion on that.

I have nothing against the kid but that's just the reality of my viewing experience over the course of this season.

 

[ctwenty1]

I wasn’t actually proposing it as a strategy Jimmae, I was responding to Blue Tongue’s specific query - what would we do with Pick 9 if Dean got there without being bid on.

“My dilemma is that if Dean makes it to our Pick 9 without a bid, will we use it on him, or Run the Gauntlet that Hawks wont use Pick 10 on him and we take him with 11.”

While you’ve presented a trade back strategy which is fine, you haven’t really considered the context of BTs question about what would we do with pick 9 if we still had it.

all comes back to how we order the players in this year's draft

ie if we have players rated ahead of Dean and Ison and no bid comes at eihter 9 or 11, then I would imagine we would take the best players availoable and then try to trade back into this draft for points to match any Dean and Ison (assuming that we still want them)

If we use pick 9 on another player but then the bid comes at 10, I'd imagine we would trade away pick 11 to get the points etc to match any bids, not just use it to pick Dean

 

[checkpoints]

Can Gresham and Clark be rookie listed as cat B rookies if they make it through to the rookie draft.

 

[Stamos]

Can Gresham and Clark be rookie listed as cat B rookies if they make it through to the rookie draft.

Only if we cut more players. Looks unlikely at this stage.

 

[Jimmae]

I wasn’t actually proposing it as a strategy Jimmae, I was responding to Blue Tongue’s specific query - what would we do with Pick 9 if Dean got there without being bid on.

“My dilemma is that if Dean makes it to our Pick 9 without a bid, will we use it on him, or Run the Gauntlet that Hawks wont use Pick 10 on him and we take him with 11.”

While you’ve presented a trade back strategy which is fine, you haven’t really considered the context of BTs question about what would we do with pick 9 if we still had it.

I mean I have covered that elsewhere, and in that scenario we'd have already got a very good sense of the top 15 on the night, and be geared to make a trade to an earlier pick, which we can do throughout proceedings.

 

[Jimmae]

Can Gresham and Clark be rookie listed as cat B rookies if they make it through to the rookie draft.

Our Cat B list is full, but yes they can be pre-listed as rookies prior to the rookie draft. I don't think we'll take them.

If the list sizes were increased again, different story.

 

[BlueTongue]

What’s the dilemma BT?

If there’s no early bid on Dean we will use #9 on the best available player.

It doesn’t matter if the Hawks bid on Dean at pick 10, we use #11 which will easily match the bid after you apply the 10% discount to #10 points value.

If Hawks don’t bid, we still end up using use #11 on Dean.

Yeah I just saw there's only 71 points between those picks (10 & 11). https://www.afl.com.au/draft/draft-order
FMD the AFL has brutalized the 2nd & 3rd round point values.

Another thing is if we get pushed back a couple of spots it loses us 150 points which forces us to use 43(45)

 

[katmanblue]

Hate to be a killjoy,

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Only if we cut more players. Looks unlikely at this stage.

Who are we cutting ahead of the draft?

 

[GoBlues!]

all comes back to how we order the players in this year's draft

ie if we have players rated ahead of Dean and Ison and no bid comes at eihter 9 or 11, then I would imagine we would take the best players availoable and then try to trade back into this draft for points to match any Dean and Ison (assuming that we still want them)

If we use pick 9 on another player but then the bid comes at 10, I'd imagine we would trade away pick 11 to get the points etc to match any bids, not just use it to pick Dean

I’m confident we will be prepared for all bid scenarios, well pretty sure …. I think.

 

[Jimmae]

Yeah I just saw there's only 71 points between those picks (10 & 11). https://www.afl.com.au/draft/draft-order
FMD the AFL has brutalized the 2nd & 3rd round point values.

Another thing is if we get pushed back a couple of spots it loses us 150 points which forces us to use 43(45)

The swings and roundabouts are that prospects in the 28-36 range are still relatively affordable, and everything after 36 is a free hit.

 

[bradfisher14]

Who are we cutting ahead of the draft?

Money permitting, I'm cutting McGovern, White, E. Hollands, Binns, and Boyd.

Extremely unlikely, but it would give us enough list spots to bring in three draftees and some SSP types.

 

[Stamos]

Who are we cutting ahead of the draft?

Most likely Lij, WW and Gov.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Will we do the "boring" thing and use 9 to match the Dean bid, pick up Dovaston with whatever our pick 11 becomes and then get Ison with remaining points would we be happy with that?

I think if no Dean bid comes by our first pick, we take Lindsay, use 11 to get Dean + Ison.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Will we do the "boring" thing and use 9 to match the Dean bid, pick up Dovaston with whatever our pick 11 becomes and then get Ison with remaining points would we be happy with that?

I think if no Dean bid comes by our first pick, we take Lindsay, use 11 to get Dean + Ison.

Doubt many would be 'happy' with that option as they'd be hoping we'd be able to do more with our picks.

But if that's the worst case scenario and we can't find a favourable pick swap to get a pick ahead of a Dean bid, it's certainly far from a disastrous outcome.

 

[bradfisher14]

Will we do the "boring" thing and use 9 to match the Dean bid, pick up Dovaston with whatever our pick 11 becomes and then get Ison with remaining points would we be happy with that?

I think if no Dean bid comes by our first pick, we take Lindsay, use 11 to get Dean + Ison.

I would be ecstatic with either outcome.

 

[BlueTongue]

AFL Phantom Draft 2025: Top 10 prospects, first round projections | Sporting News Australia

Now that the AFL trade period is over, it's time for focus on November's AFL National Draft.

www.sportingnews.com

I can see Richmond Bidding before Essendon. They've pretty much addressed Mids & Forwards last year, and I think they'll take great delight in making us match so early, being prepared to take Dean if we dont match.

 

[GoBlues!]

I can see Richmond Bidding before Essendon. They've pretty much addressed Mids & Forwards last year, and I think they'll take great delight in making us match so early, being prepared to take Dean if we dont match.

I think Richmond would take greater pleasure in bidding on thyGCS and Lions Academy players before a bid on Dean.

Rich bid could come in at pick 6 or 7, otherwise Essendon will be waiting at 8 or 9.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I can see Richmond Bidding before Essendon. They've pretty much addressed Mids & Forwards last year, and I think they'll take great delight in making us match so early, being prepared to take Dean if we dont match.

They haven't addressed their mids... this is why I think Grlj is a player they'll take... they need that outside, explosive speed he provides.

Their back stocks are fine with Miller, Balta, Gibcus, Gray... they just delisted Blight and traded Young.

They'd want to look at a Vlastuin replacement too...so Taylor a chance as well.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I would be ecstatic with either outcome.

Yep. And those are pretty much our "worst case" outcomes if we're unable to trade into a F1 for next year or trade up...

Great position to be in.

 

[skadoosh]

Just watched Pommy on BA. He's said his dream scenario is Dean and Lindsay with our first 2 picks. What are the chances of this actually happening?