Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

It may actually make sense for WCE though.

They'll know that we're committed to taking Dean in the draft. We match and it chews up 9 and 11, as well as pushing our next pick until after their pick 13.

It's not pick 2 they're worried about cos we'll match it, it'd be their following pick they're trying to push up the order.

Although if the bid is at 2 proper, it could backfire on them, if we trade both 9 and 11 out for points. They would move backwards a pick.

If their strategy is purely to move 13 up, they’d be better off bidding on the 3 Suns and Lions players and hoping Tigers or Essendon bid on Dean, late enough for it to be worth us matching without trading out, but early enough to knock our 2nd pick past theirs.

If their strategy threat is just so that we trade 9 for 13, they would have to offer juicy extra points, because we straight up lose 275 points, but also lose 140 odd points on the 1st pick matching, which damages our 2nd pick further.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Although if the bid is at 2 proper, it could backfire on them, if we trade both 9 and 11 out for points. They would move backwards a pick.

If their strategy is purely to move 13 up, they’d be better off bidding on the 3 Suns and Lions players and hoping Tigers or Essendon bid on Dean, late enough for it to be worth us matching without trading out, but early enough to knock our 2nd pick past theirs.

If their strategy threat is just so that we trade 9 for 13, they would have to offer juicy extra points, because we straight up lose 275 points, but also lose 140 odd points on the 1st pick matching, which damages our 2nd pick further.

I swear Stamos, you should be working for Carlton's List Management Team

 

[ThePuma #9]

Although if the bid is at 2 proper, it could backfire on them, if we trade both 9 and 11 out for points. They would move backwards a pick.

If their strategy is purely to move 13 up, they’d be better off bidding on the 3 Suns and Lions players and hoping Tigers or Essendon bid on Dean, late enough for it to be worth us matching without trading out, but early enough to knock our 2nd pick past theirs.

If their strategy threat is just so that we trade 9 for 13, they would have to offer juicy extra points, because we straight up lose 275 points, but also lose 140 odd points on the 1st pick matching, which damages our 2nd pick further.

I hope I’m not intruding and I’m not looking to piss anyone off. Just wondered how you’d all feel about this scenario.

Clearly the Eagles are keen on pick 9 and this is just postering in the hopes of getting you to trade it.

We could put a bid on Dean at 1,2 3, 4 or 5 and with any of those options both 9 and 11 are swallowed up with a later pick coming back.

This improves the Eagles pick 13 by two spots but a trade to 9 improves it four spots so how about this deal?


Pick 9 (1355 points)

for

Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

 

[ctwenty1]

I hope I’m not intruding and I’m not looking to piss anyone off. Just wondered how you’d all feel about this scenario.

Clearly the Eagles are keen on pick 9 and this is just postering in the hopes of getting you to trade it.

We could put a bid on Dean at 1,2 3, 4 or 5 and with any of those options both 9 and 11 are swallowed up with a later pick coming back.

This improves the Eagles pick 13 by two spots but a trade to 9 improves it four spots so how about this deal?


Pick 9 (1355 points)

for

Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

So two latish first rounders for a pick 6?

No wonder clubs are pushing back against further changes for 2026

Already pretty tough

 

[ThePuma #9]

So two latish first rounders for a pick 6?

No wonder clubs are pushing back against further changes for 2026

Already pretty tough

West Coast do also have pick 34 currently which after matching other academy picks will be 29. That could be offered instead of the other pick and would give Carlton a better pick and another 100 plus points in the draft index but either way it seems the Blues will probably lose both 9 & 11 one way or the other. If I was to guess I’d say we are posturing in the hopes to trade with you but I suspect the Tigers will 100 percent throw a bid your way.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I hope I’m not intruding and I’m not looking to piss anyone off. Just wondered how you’d all feel about this scenario.

Clearly the Eagles are keen on pick 9 and this is just postering in the hopes of getting you to trade it.

We could put a bid on Dean at 1,2 3, 4 or 5 and with any of those options both 9 and 11 are swallowed up with a later pick coming back.

This improves the Eagles pick 13 by two spots but a trade to 9 improves it four spots so how about this deal?


Pick 9 (1355 points)

for

Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

Why would we want to do a deal with a team actively threatening to butt **** us?

 

[ThePuma #9]

Why would we want to do a deal with a team actively threatening to butt **** us?

Genuinely fair point but if it’s not us so to speak then it’s probably the Tigers.

The biggest issue for the Blues as far as I can tell is you can’t really trade up. If you tried to do a deal with the Bombers for their second rounders then you’d risk going into deficit in next year years draft with Walker. No chance the club lets that happen.

Highly unlikely Bombers will want to do a deal anyways as they themselves have a couple of academy boys expected to go late first, early second round.

You wouldn’t bother moving up with the Demons as a few spots doesn’t change anything for you and I doubt the Tigers will look to trade one of their picks to you for 9 and 11 and that would be a disaster for the Blues if the Eagles did throw a bid in early and again you risk going into deficit next year when you match for Dean which will hurt chasing Walker next year.

The last option would be North but you wouldn’t make up any additional points really with 9 for their two seconds so it’s rather a pointless exercise.

If it’s not West Coast bidding then it’s probably the Tigers but either way 9 & 11 are probably not going to be used to move up the order or take another first after Dean.

The Eagles can burn a lot of other clubs picks which does help the Carlton with their later picks, they can offer additional points in the deal that would be fair from a points index point of view and at least get Dean through to pick 6 at the very worst.

Blues can probably still get their academy boy as well and move a pick or two into next years draft.

Perhaps pick 34 would be fair for all involved as it will come into pick 29ish and net the Blues a couple of hundred points for the trade but either way the Blues probably don’t get to use picks 9 or 11 in the draft.

 

[ctwenty1]

West Coast do also have pick 34 currently which after matching other academy picks will be 29. That could be offered instead of the other pick and would give Carlton a better pick and another 100 plus points in the draft index but either way it seems the Blues will probably lose both 9 & 11 one way or the other. If I was to guess I’d say we are posturing in the hopes to trade with you but I suspect the Tigers will 100 percent throw a bid your way.

Yeah, Richmond could do that but ultimately what do they gain, especially if they feel he isn’t a true pick 6? their third pick is 38 which will come in a bit with all the bid matching but would that be the strategy?

Anyway, who do you wnat with your first two picks?

 

[ThePuma #9]

Yeah, Richmond could do that but ultimately what do they gain, especially if they feel he isn’t a true pick 6? their third pick is 38 which will come in a bit with all the bid matching but would that be the strategy?

Anyway, who do you wnat with your first two picks?

Valid point, they have nothing to gain from making you bid but it’s the Tigers after all so….

I think we will take Duursma with pick 1 and will not trade the pick.

The general consensus is we’d like to split pick 2 if we could entrap the Bombers for 5 & 6 but this appears unlikely as no one seems willing to overpay.

We could really use Sharp but will probably refuse to reach and just take best available.

It’s probably CDT but who knows, maybe Robey has some admirers at the club.

If we can’t split my gut says take Duursma and CDT and hope Duff-Tytper can grow a few more cm’s and become the “Luke Jackson” type ruckman they project him to be.

 

[Jimmae]

FWIW, I've spoken to two former players and we're expected to take Picks 9 & 11 into the draft as is and use 3 selections in total. Make of that what you will.

Also odd that report says we are planning on taking 3 + Dean at the draft. Don't see how that would be ppossible if we have to match a bid that early. Unless we are trading a future pick into this year's draft ofc

My expectation is that we'll start the draft with 4 or 5 active selections, but take 3 players total.

Swap their 41 for 43 while we're at it

Their 41 was originally ours, so I'm not sure we can trade for it until the draft starts? Perhaps not directly at all.

I hope I’m not intruding and I’m not looking to piss anyone off. Just wondered how you’d all feel about this scenario.

Clearly the Eagles are keen on pick 9 and this is just postering in the hopes of getting you to trade it.

We could put a bid on Dean at 1,2 3, 4 or 5 and with any of those options both 9 and 11 are swallowed up with a later pick coming back.

This improves the Eagles pick 13 by two spots but a trade to 9 improves it four spots so how about this deal?


Pick 9 (1355 points)

for

Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

If we flip 9, 11, and 43 into 5, 21, and 30 from the Dons, do you think your mob would go for 5, 21 and Sydney's 2027 1st for 2, 34, 53 and 58 your 2027 2nd?

I don't think your academy and F/S prospects will draw much interest until the 30s, if that, so you might want to bank the capital and shake points out as you go. Clubs will clamour for that end of first as the first twist and turns appear in the order.

 

[ThePuma #9]

My expectation is that we'll start the draft with 4 or 5 active selections, but take 3 players total.

Their 41 was originally ours, so I'm not sure we can trade for it until the draft starts? Perhaps not directly at all.


If we flip 9, 11, and 43 into 5, 21, and 30 from the Dons, do you think your mob would go for 5, 21 and Sydney's 2027 1st for 2, 34, 53 and 58 your 2027 2nd?

I don't think your academy and F/S prospects will draw much interest until the 30s, if that, so you might want to bank the capital and shake points out as you go. Clubs will clamour for that end of first as the first twist and turns appear in the order.

No we wouldn’t I’m afraid.

We only have 5 list spots available to use.

We will need to match an academy boy (Tylar Williams) and a father and son (Banfield) in the second round onwards which only leaves us with 3 live picks. Since we already have 1,2 & 13 we would only be looking to split 2 for top ten picks.

Pick 21 would have no value to us as we’d never get to use it and the Swans future first probably ends up in the 20’s as well now they have the traitor Curnow lining up for them.

 

[Jimmae]

No we wouldn’t I’m afraid.

We only have 5 list spots available to use.

We will need to match an academy boy (Tylar Williams) and a father and son (Banfield) in the second round onwards which only leaves us with 3 live picks. Since we already have 1,2 & 13 we would only be looking to split 2 for top ten picks.

Pick 21 would have no value to us as we’d never get to use it and the Swans future first probably ends up in the 20’s as well now they have the traitor Curnow lining up for them.

You have 3 additional rookie slots, no? You can't delist anyone with a commitment to re-draft?

Plus, you might find a suitor to trade into 2026 while securing points for 2025 with given the frenzy that might occur at that draft range.

I don't think Williams and Banfield will draw that much interest, neither will the Essendon next-gen prospects, at least anything that would necessitate multiple picks in the 30s and 20s respectively.

I get that it's not a the best looking upgrade in 2027 either, but it's very much in the range of where the gap would otherwise be in this trade.

 

[ThePuma #9]

You have 3 additional rookie slots, no? You can't delist anyone with a commitment to re-draft?

Plus, you might find a suitor to trade into 2026 while securing points for 2025 with given the frenzy that might occur at that draft range.

I don't think Williams and Banfield will draw that much interest, neither will the Essendon next-gen prospects, at least anything that would necessitate multiple picks in the 30s and 20s respectively.

I get that it's not a the best looking upgrade in 2027 either, but it's very much in the range of where the gap would otherwise be in this trade.

We have 4 but we have already committed two of those spots already. We need to select a few senior players to also help our struggling WAFL side.

It doesn’t help us much with developing when the kids are getting thumped in the twos each week.

The other issue is with the trade you proposed we wouldn’t have enough capitol to match our academy boy and father and son so would have to split pick 21 to make that happen. We wouldn’t get much in the way of a return for a future pick plus one in the 30’s this year so it’s just making our life’s that little bit harder.

We’re trading 2 for 5 with the future pick thrown in but now need to split 21 just to have the picks again to be able to select and match Williams and Banfield.

It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for us to do it really.

 

[Abers]

I hope I’m not intruding and I’m not looking to piss anyone off. Just wondered how you’d all feel about this scenario.

Clearly the Eagles are keen on pick 9 and this is just postering in the hopes of getting you to trade it.

We could put a bid on Dean at 1,2 3, 4 or 5 and with any of those options both 9 and 11 are swallowed up with a later pick coming back.

This improves the Eagles pick 13 by two spots but a trade to 9 improves it four spots so how about this deal?


Pick 9 (1355 points)

for

Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

Alternatively if you bid on Dean at Pick 2 you lose pick 2 and get Harry Dean.

 

[Manhattanite]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft has Dean still at 8, Lindsay at 14, Dovaston at 18 and Ison at 26.

For now 9 and 11 plus the late picks should get us Dean, Ison and one of Lindsay or Dovaston

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft has Dean still at 8, Lindsay at 14, Dovaston at 18 and Ison at 26.

For now 9 and 11 plus the late picks should get us Dean, Ison and one of Lindsay or Dovaston

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2025 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Latrelle Sumner-Pickett into 24 too.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Just use 9 on Dean and draft Harley Barker with whatever 11 slides to.....easy, done.

 

[Bluebag13]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft has Dean still at 8, Lindsay at 14, Dovaston at 18 and Ison at 26.

For now 9 and 11 plus the late picks should get us Dean, Ison and one of Lindsay or Dovaston

Would be very happy with this.
Especially Lindsay, for 2 reasons; i don't see the logjam that others see at HB and think JL provides a PoD to our other HBs, and secondly if we select him our backline is largely set for the foreseeable future across all levels and we can then focus over the next 2 offseasons on the midfield and forward line

 

[Soapy V]

Only watching videos and reading reports but Latrell Pickett looks very good. Not sure why not rated higher. He is the type we need. Be a smokey at 9?

 

[ThePuma #9]

Alternatively if you bid on Dean at Pick 2 you lose pick 2 and get Harry Dean.

We wouldn't bid on Dean at 2. I half suspect we will bid on Uwland though.

 

[Big Delut]

Only watching videos and reading reports but Latrell Pickett looks very good. Not sure why not rated higher. He is the type we need. Be a smokey at 9?

I'm assuming it has at least something to do with him turning 20 shortly but still mostly playing SANFL reserves.

 

[Bletch]

We wouldn't bid on Dean at 2. I half suspect we will bid on Uwland though.

Do you think there's any chance you'd go:
2. Uwland
3. Annable
4. Patterson
5. Dean
6. ??

or some variation of above? Would clear a lot of picks out of the draft (bringing your later picks into something more reasonable). I'm not advocating for it (of course), just wondering what the view of a WC supporter would be on this strategy.

 

[Coona Blues]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft has Dean still at 8, Lindsay at 14, Dovaston at 18 and Ison at 26.

For now 9 and 11 plus the late picks should get us Dean, Ison and one of Lindsay or Dovaston

Yep. We have been linked with Dovaston, and given the age of our better small forwards, it is sensible. Have had Lindsay as my preferred open pool player for a long time. Upgrade on what we have disposal wise, but we are well served for developing half backs (and now wingers), so we perhaps have greater needs.

We have resigned McGovern for tall coverage at both ends, but he is not a KPP. There are players in the pick range who are potential KPP who, on needs are perhaps more suitable targets. Schubert might go too early, but Ludowyke, Emmett, Hetherton, Curtin, and perhaps a couple of others are viable project talls.

It is a fascinating off season.

 

[We may never win again]

Deans grown another cm according to the rankings, with any luck he could get to 195 or 196

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Only watching videos and reading reports but Latrell Pickett looks very good. Not sure why not rated higher. He is the type we need. Be a smokey at 9?

I think being an 'over-ager' perhaps works against him? IE he's already been overlooked but has got back into contention via some good performances this year.
No idea what his game is like outside his highlights either