Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Soapy V]

Yep. We have been linked with Dovaston, and given the age of our better small forwards, it is sensible. Have had Lindsay as my preferred open pool player for a long time. Upgrade on what we have disposal wise, but we are well served for developing half backs (and now wingers), so we perhaps have greater needs.

We have resigned McGovern for tall coverage at both ends, but he is not a KPP. There are players in the pick range who are potential KPP who, on needs are perhaps more suitable targets. Schubert might go too early, but Ludowyke, Emmett, Hetherton, Curtin, and perhaps a couple of others are viable project talls.

It is a fascinating off season.

Going to be very interesting. Before trade period I was told we are keen to get up order but with what we acheived and having 9 & 11 things get interesting.

If Dean isn't bid on could we use both 9 & 11 on other players? A tall and a small? Then we have Ison who many rate very highly. That would be 4 picks

If we do this we have a LOT of youth on our list but also looks like a very talented and balanced group that could set up up for a decade or more

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Only watching videos and reading reports but Latrell Pickett looks very good. Not sure why not rated higher. He is the type we need. Be a smokey at 9?

Overager, playing in the 2s, very hot and cold like most small forwards.

His natural talent is clearly there in spades but those question marks will always mean he's rated a bit lower than he would be on talent alone.

 

[Soapy V]

Overager, playing in the 2s, very hot and cold like most small forwards.

His natural talent is clearly there in spades but those question marks will always mean he's rated a bit lower than he would be on talent alone.

Reading that he didn't play traditonal pathway and went home etc. Only really has just started playing regularly which explains a lot

 

[Stamos]

If Dean isn't bid on could we use both 9 & 11 on other players? A tall and a small? Then we have Ison who many rate very highly. That would be 4 picks

If Dean isn't bid on by our 2nd pick, we would likely trade down, or partly out.
We simply won't have enough points to take 2 players before Dean.

 

[Soapy V]

If Dean isn't bid on by our 2nd pick, we would likely trade down, or partly out.
We simply won't have enough points to take 2 players before Dean.

We can trade future picks etc. So many variables that I am not writing anything off at this stage

 

[BlueLocke]

I think being an 'over-ager' perhaps works against him? IE he's already been overlooked but has got back into contention via some good performances this year.
No idea what his game is like outside his highlights either

Hadn't played any real representative footy aside from a few under 18s games for Norwood. He's a country lad so was just playing footy back home. Had limited experience with the elite pathways - it's hard to get to Adelaide from Eyre.

Summary from someone who floats around at Glenelg was he superbly talented but floated in and out of games, mostly due due to not having a tank at all. Now he's settled in Adelaide and can focus more on his footy - he's fit and firing.

Ceiling is high - aside from his age, he's effectively a junior as he's only just now had the opportunity to access the elite support offered.

 

[Stamos]

We can trade future picks etc. So many variables that I am not writing anything off at this stage

We can, but, we don't actually have much currency in terms of Futures.
Only 2 x F1s in 2026, which would seem to be more valuable to us than any of our other picks, and completely off the table.

We have F1, F1 (Swans) and F3 in 2027, but these are devalued due to Tassie, so it would be a massive risk expecting that they would be able to get us a live trade for sufficient points.

The chances of Dean getting to 14 without a bid are minimal, so it's all academic anyway, but right now everything points to us taking 1 other player in the ND along with Dean and Ison.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Do you think there's any chance you'd go:
2. Uwland
3. Annable
4. Patterson
5. Dean
6. ??

or some variation of above? Would clear a lot of picks out of the draft (bringing your later picks into something more reasonable). I'm not advocating for it (of course), just wondering what the view of a WC supporter would be on this strategy.

If the Eagles were serious about doing whatever it took to improve our draft hand and in turn our list then this would be the best case result for us.


Pick 1 Duursma (WC) We still get the exposure of taking pick 1.
Pick 2 Uwland (GC)
Pick 3 Annable (BRIS)
Pick 4 Patterson (GC)
Pick 5 ???


For Pick 2 the Suns will need 2,233 points for Uwland so will lose 15,18 & 24 and gain pick 43 back.

For Pick 3 Lions will need 1,961 points for Annable so would lose after their picks shift around 17, 22, 42 & 50 and would go into next years draft 123 points in deficit.

For Pick 4 the Suns will need 1,766 points. After their picks move around they would need to use 25 ,26 ,33 ,41 & 48 and go into next years draft 107 points in deficit.


There's two ways the Eagles could now go from here.

Option 1. Bid on Dean at Pick 5. This would cost the Blues 1,616 in points. They'd need to use pick 12 & 14 but would receive pick 27 back and the Eagles first moves up two spots.

Option 2. Offer the Blues Pick 16 & 30 for Pick 12 & 46. This would give them an additional 104 points and still allow the Eagles to have two picks in the draft to match for Williams who is our academy boy.

The Blues would have picks 15,17,31 & 39. A bid at Pick 6 from the Tigers would cost you 1494 points so you'd still need to use 15 & 17 but you'd also get back pick 35.

Essentially you would get Dean and and be left with picks 29,35 & 38 to make some moves with. Carlton could also split one of their first for Norths seconds for instance and that would make any moves for Dean moot on your first picks but you wouldn't make up many point so it would hardly be worth it.


All the above is very clearly in the Eagles our best interests either way but will we risk upsetting several teams for our own benefit? We are normally a very conservative club who doesn't upset the apple cart so it would take a huge shift in the way the club thinks to do it.



So that's the million dollar question, do we have the balls to do it?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Only watching videos and reading reports but Latrell Pickett looks very good. Not sure why not rated higher. He is the type we need. Be a smokey at 9?

Both walshy and I have been on Lattrelle. 9 is a little high for mine. I would have him in the conversation for the pick that 11 is pushed out to, if we used 9 for Dean, but probably just prefer others there

 

[Bletch]

If the Eagles were serious about doing whatever it took to improve our draft hand and in turn our list then this would be the best case result for us.


Pick 1 Duursma (WC) We still get the exposure of taking pick 1.
Pick 2 Uwland (GC)
Pick 3 Annable (BRIS)
Pick 4 Patterson (GC)
Pick 5 ???


For Pick 2 the Suns will need 2,233 points for Uwland so will lose 15,18 & 24 and gain pick 43 back.

For Pick 3 Lions will need 1,961 points for Annable so would lose after their picks shift around 17, 22, 42 & 50 and would go into next years draft 123 points in deficit.

For Pick 4 the Suns will need 1,766 points. After their picks move around they would need to use 25 ,26 ,33 ,41 & 48 and go into next years draft 107 points in deficit.


There's two ways the Eagles could now go from here.

Option 1. Bid on Dean at Pick 5. This would cost the Blues 1,616 in points. They'd need to use pick 12 & 14 but would receive pick 27 back and the Eagles first moves up two spots.

Option 2. Offer the Blues Pick 16 & 30 for Pick 12 & 46. This would give them an additional 104 points and still allow the Eagles to have two picks in the draft to match for Williams who is our academy boy.

The Blues would have picks 15,17,31 & 39. A bid at Pick 6 from the Tigers would cost you 1494 points so you'd still need to use 15 & 17 but you'd also get back pick 35.

Essentially you would get Dean and and be left with picks 29,35 & 38 to make some moves with. Carlton could also split one of their first for Norths seconds for instance and that would make any moves for Dean moot on your first picks but you wouldn't make up many point so it would hardly be worth it.


All the above is very clearly in the Eagles our best interests either way but will we risk upsetting several teams for our own benefit? We are normally a very conservative club who doesn't upset the apple cart so it would take a huge shift in the way the club thinks to do it.



So that's the million dollar question, do we have the balls to do it?

Thanks.

It's something I've been wondering - if the changes in the DVI will result in changes in clubs attitude to early bids on father/sons and academy picks. So I think it is possible that either you or Richmond do something like this. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

We also have Jack Ison (NGA) likely in the 20-30 range, so any pick trade offer will need to take both Dean and Ison into account. And we're likely to take at most one extra pick. I'm assuming in your Option 2, there is a nod and a wink that will mean no bid from WC on Dean at 5. I'm not sure that trade suggestion does anything useful for us over and above just matching the bid at 5, so I think we'd probably pass.

 

[circusdevil]

I hope I’m not intruding and I’m not looking to piss anyone off. Just wondered how you’d all feel about this scenario.

Clearly the Eagles are keen on pick 9 and this is just postering in the hopes of getting you to trade it.

We could put a bid on Dean at 1,2 3, 4 or 5 and with any of those options both 9 and 11 are swallowed up with a later pick coming back.

This improves the Eagles pick 13 by two spots but a trade to 9 improves it four spots so how about this deal?


Pick 9 (1355 points)

for

Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

I'd tell your soulless franchise of a club to do your worst and burn your pick 2. Dean will sit with you for a year, and request a trade at every opportunity, and we will eventually get him for unders after he has taken advantage of the pristine gym equipment at Lathlain. Whilst there, we will get him to white ant Harley Reid and sell the blues vision to him. We'll also get him to put holes in that stupid inflatable monstrosity that your talentless squad run through at the start of each home game.

 

[ThePuma #9]

I'd tell your soulless franchise of a club to do your worst and burn your pick 2. Dean will sit with you for a year, and request a trade at every opportunity, and we will eventually get him for unders after he has taken advantage of the pristine gym equipment at Lathlain. Whilst there, we will get him to white ant Harley Reid and sell the blues vision to him. We'll also get him to put holes in that stupid inflatable monstrosity that your talentless squad run through at the start of each home game.

We're not going to bid on him at 2, it would probably be at 5 if we did. Under that circumstance is Carlton really going to pass up on Dean because he was bid on a few spots earlier than expected and say you declined to match and we wants to leave after one year how would you expect to get a trade done when you need all your draft capitol to match for Cody Walker?

Threats are fine in theory but list managers think in terms of years and multiple deals taking place, not just one.

As for Harley have at it, god knows everyone else has and will continue to do so. That's not going to change anytime soon sadly.

 

[GoBlues!]

Pick 9 (1355 points) for Pick 13 & 41 (1300 points)

Initially you lose 55 points but part of this arrangement is the Eagles bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable with 2,3 & 4 and take our second pick at 5 which means a few things.

1. The earliest bid for Dean would be from the Tigers at Pick 6.

2. If the Eagles bid on the above players then picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29, 36, 44, 51 & 52 are swallowed up.

The trade would then be more like

Pick 12 (1140)

for

Pick 16 (924)
Pick 36 (317)

You make 100 quick points and don’t have to match Dean until pick 6 at the earliest which will only cost you 1,494 points.

You’d still have to give up 14 & 16 for Dean but you’d also get back pick 30 and Carlton’s pick 42 & 54 also come in quite a few places.

In this scenario, presumably our pick 9 for WCE 13 & 41 would happen before your pick 5, and if we did who's to say you wouldn't still bid on Dean at #5?

If the pick swap was to happen after WC select CDT at pick 5, why would we bother trading 9 to WC.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Thanks.

It's something I've been wondering - if the changes in the DVI will result in changes in clubs attitude to early bids on father/sons and academy picks. So I think it is possible that either you or Richmond do something like this. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

We also have Jack Ison (NGA) likely in the 20-30 range, so any pick trade offer will need to take both Dean and Ison into account. And we're likely to take at most one extra pick. I'm assuming in your Option 2, there is a nod and a wink that will mean no bid from WC on Dean at 5. I'm not sure that trade suggestion does anything useful for us over and above just matching the bid at 5, so I think we'd probably pass.

Of course. I think if Dean fell to pick 6 (Tigers) then the Blues would have no hesitation in matching and West Coast making the northern clubs cough up helps all of us with later picks.

A rising tide raises all ships and all that.

 

[ThePuma #9]

In this scenario, presumably our pick 9 for WCE 13 & 41 would happen before your pick 5, and if we did who's to say you wouldn't still bid on Dean at #5?

If the pick swap was to happen after WC select CDT at pick 5, why would we bother trading 9 to WC.

I had a further look at it this morning mate and made some further adjustments after working out exactly how the picks would look after each nomination. Have a look at that one as it's very precise but more of less what i am implying is if a trade was done with Blues then i would imagine we'd pick CDT at 5 and Dean is still unbid on. Then it's a question of whether the Tigers bid on him or not but the HUN article did say they are looking at him as well.

 

[Taylor]

Both walshy and I have been on Lattrelle. 9 is a little high for mine. I would have him in the conversation for the pick that 11 is pushed out to, if we used 9 for Dean, but probably just prefer others there

Nick Watson is the only 170cm player I've seen taken recently with a pick so high and I don't think an overage 170cm player has been picked in the national draft this century. You could potentially pick him up much later.

 

[Big Delut]

Nick Watson is the only 170cm player I've seen taken recently with a pick so high and I don't think an overage 170cm player has been picked in the national draft this century. You could potentially pick him up much later.

He's listed as 180cm

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

I had a further look at it this morning mate and made some further adjustments after working out exactly how the picks would look after each nomination. Have a look at that one as it's very precise but more of less what i am implying is if a trade was done with Blues then i would imagine we'd pick CDT at 5 and Dean is still unbid on. Then it's a question of whether the Tigers bid on him or not but the HUN article did say they are looking at him as well.

Anyone ahead of us can bid on Dean of course but they should know that karma can be a bitch. We have plenty of cap space now to entice some VIC boys home.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Anyone ahead of us can bid on Dean of course but they should know that karma can be a bitch. We have plenty of cap space now to entice some VIC boys home.

Didn't you already do that to us with Chesser?

So i'm not sure how it's any different whether we bid on Dean or not.

You should have just offered to take Owies back instead. That would have been waaaay more persuading, we'd probably even throw you a pick as well.

 

[Taylor]

He's listed as 180cm

As they say on International Superstar Soccer 64... And THAT changes everything!

Cal Twomey's article is wrong!! He has him at 170cm

 

[Jimmae]

Twomey’s latest Phantom Draft

Phantom Form Guide... he's still got no serious intel.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Phantom Form Guide... he's still got no serious intel.

That’s seriously comical saying Cal doesn’t have serious intel especially when it comes to the draft.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Cal does have intel but his form guide is how he rates the players, not his prediction of where they go. Phantom draft will be his prediction.

 

[Jimmae]

That’s seriously comical saying Cal doesn’t have serious intel especially when it comes to the draft.

Oh we're back to this again after last year? Go back and read what you wrote then.

He will get it, he doesn't have it yet.

 

[ctwenty1]

If the Eagles were serious about doing whatever it took to improve our draft hand and in turn our list then this would be the best case result for us.


Pick 1 Duursma (WC) We still get the exposure of taking pick 1.
Pick 2 Uwland (GC)
Pick 3 Annable (BRIS)
Pick 4 Patterson (GC)
Pick 5 ???


For Pick 2 the Suns will need 2,233 points for Uwland so will lose 15,18 & 24 and gain pick 43 back.

For Pick 3 Lions will need 1,961 points for Annable so would lose after their picks shift around 17, 22, 42 & 50 and would go into next years draft 123 points in deficit.

For Pick 4 the Suns will need 1,766 points. After their picks move around they would need to use 25 ,26 ,33 ,41 & 48 and go into next years draft 107 points in deficit.


There's two ways the Eagles could now go from here.

Option 1. Bid on Dean at Pick 5. This would cost the Blues 1,616 in points. They'd need to use pick 12 & 14 but would receive pick 27 back and the Eagles first moves up two spots.

Option 2. Offer the Blues Pick 16 & 30 for Pick 12 & 46. This would give them an additional 104 points and still allow the Eagles to have two picks in the draft to match for Williams who is our academy boy.

The Blues would have picks 15,17,31 & 39. A bid at Pick 6 from the Tigers would cost you 1494 points so you'd still need to use 15 & 17 but you'd also get back pick 35.

Essentially you would get Dean and and be left with picks 29,35 & 38 to make some moves with. Carlton could also split one of their first for Norths seconds for instance and that would make any moves for Dean moot on your first picks but you wouldn't make up many point so it would hardly be worth it.


All the above is very clearly in the Eagles our best interests either way but will we risk upsetting several teams for our own benefit? We are normally a very conservative club who doesn't upset the apple cart so it would take a huge shift in the way the club thinks to do it.



So that's the million dollar question, do we have the balls to do it?

Under your option 1, it kind of doesnt matter whcih club bids for dean before our pick 9, your pick 13 will come in one position - is that correct?