Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

Bombers supporters very keen

 

[Coona Blues]

Bombers supporters very keen

It is a complete nonsense!

The club values Ison. The first bloke to like your post values Ison, very highly. This strategy completely wipes out the ability to match a bid.

Aside from permutations around picks dropping due to bid matching through the draft, a quick look at the ramifications of a bid at 10 for Dean, which is low by many projections. The points from 21 and 30 are eaten up and nothing remains to match/draft Ison.

 

[ctwenty1]

It is a complete nonsense!

The club values Ison. The first bloke to like your post values Ison, very highly. This strategy completely wipes out the ability to match a bid.

Aside from permutations around picks dropping due to bid matching through the draft, a quick look at the ramifications of a bid at 10 for Dean, which is low by many projections. The points from 21 and 30 are eaten up and nothing remains to match/draft Ison.

Yeah that is the issue - not sure how much our later picks come in though due to GC/brisbane bid matching which lift the point value of those picks. We could go into points deficit for 2026 which woudlnt effect Walker bid as long as Ison is bid on in the second round.

Would potentially consider doing the deal on trade night, when we will have a better idea as to what the picks will actually look like

 

[SurreyBlue]

The Hawthorn pick trade in the end of the trade period of losing pick 22 has hurt our flexibility. Really should have not entered that discussion. In the end they didn’t even get their man.

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

GETTABLE: HUGE draft preview, the clubs trading picks, who goes where in the top-10

Cal Twomey and Riley Beveridge discuss the key clubs with top 10 draft picks, answer your questions and more

www.afl.com.au

22min mark Blues pick swap discussed

 

[azlou]

It is a complete nonsense!

The club values Ison. The first bloke to like your post values Ison, very highly. This strategy completely wipes out the ability to match a bid.

Aside from permutations around picks dropping due to bid matching through the draft, a quick look at the ramifications of a bid at 10 for Dean, which is low by many projections. The points from 21 and 30 are eaten up and nothing remains to match/draft Ison.

Who do value more ison vs robey or Cummings

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

It is a complete nonsense!

The club values Ison. The first bloke to like your post values Ison, very highly. This strategy completely wipes out the ability to match a bid.

Aside from permutations around picks dropping due to bid matching through the draft, a quick look at the ramifications of a bid at 10 for Dean, which is low by many projections. The points from 21 and 30 are eaten up and nothing remains to match/draft Ison.

So yo would rather Ison over a top 6 like Robey, Cumming etc ?

Who do value more ison vs robey or Cummings

Theres probably more likely 3 x options:

-Trade up for a Cummings, Robey type & Dean
-Match Dean and hope for a Dovaston with pick 17,18 odd and get Ison
-Trade pick 9 into next year as Twomey discussed we are looking to do on his show today. We get Dean and Ison only this year

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Who do value more ison vs robey or Cummings

It's not that simple though.

It's Cummings vs. a Dovaston/Barker and Ison

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

So yo would rather Ison over a top 6 like Robey, Cumming etc ?

Theres probably more likely 3 x options:

-Trade up for a Cummings, Robey type & Dean
-Match Dean and hope for a Dovaston with pick 17,18 odd and get Ison
-Trade pick 9 into next year as Twomey discussed we are looking to do on his show today. We get Dean and Ison only this year

Should enter the draft with the 3rd plan, but be prepared to pivot to plan 2 if a very good deal is offered.
Plan 1 is unlikely, unless Dean slides.

 

[SurreyBlue]

So yo would rather Ison over a top 6 like Robey, Cumming etc ?

Theres probably more likely 3 x options:

-Trade up for a Cummings, Robey type & Dean
-Match Dean and hope for a Dovaston with pick 17,18 odd and get Ison
-Trade pick 9 into next year as Twomey discussed we are looking to do on his show today. We get Dean and Ison only this year

We’ve become obsessed with having multiple picks for next years R1, to match Walker, that we are getting screwed in every trade. The AFL have totally destroyed our chances of drafting anyone decent and the rules haven’t even been modified. Instead of telling the AFL to ‘flower off’ and it’s not legally possible for them to makes changes to next years draft or to the following, due to trade pick process enabled, we are rabbits in headlights.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Sounds like Dean bid likely to be at Essendons picks most likely.

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

Should enter the draft with the 3rd plan, but be prepared to pivot to plan 2 if a very good deal is offered.
Plan 1 is unlikely, unless Dean slides.

Ill take Eagles future 1st for our pick #9

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

So by the sounds of it looks like we are just getting Dean and Ison in the draft and no between player later in the first round like a Dovaston etc.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Had a solid laugh listening to Gettable today when they mentioned the AFL will look at making changes surrounding the bidding system and DVI in December this year...

The incompetence never ceases to amaze.

 

[DZ4]

Plenty who watched enough CTL and champs games have Dean rated in the top 5. He was immense this season.

Can’t see him going ahead of Duursma, CDT, Patterson, Annable or Uwland. Then there’s a big argument for Robey who keeps rising and Taylor might be a matter of preference.

I would fall over if he is bid within the top 5 let alone 1.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It is a complete nonsense!

The club values Ison. The first bloke to like your post values Ison, very highly. This strategy completely wipes out the ability to match a bid.

Aside from permutations around picks dropping due to bid matching through the draft, a quick look at the ramifications of a bid at 10 for Dean, which is low by many projections. The points from 21 and 30 are eaten up and nothing remains to match/draft Ison.

We have 6 first round picks over the next 3 drafts. If we want Dean + Ison + another throw at the stump this year we will make it happen.

Whether it's a worthwhile deal for us is another question entirely and I'd imagine will entirely depend on where bids come on the night and which players are already gone at that range.

Liking a post someone has shared from an Essendon fans point of view has nothing to do with whether or not I think it's a deal that should be agreed to or not. Just appreciating the sharing of said view to give some perspective to our fans from an opposition point of view.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Can’t see him going ahead of Duursma, CDT, Patterson, Annable or Uwland. Then there’s a big argument for Robey who keeps rising and Taylor might be a matter of preference.

I would fall over if he is bid within the top 5 let alone 1.

I'd be shocked if a Dean bid came at 1 too, but the continued campaigning that he's some sort of 10-15 ranked player is just setting up the less informed fans to be upset when we do inevitably match a bid that will be higher than some would like. Then we'll be hearing for years after that we paid overs, shouldn't have matched etc and all the rest of the toxic fluff that comes with it.

I'd also be shocked if Dean goes after Taylor, most overrated player in this draft on actual performances this year.

Good athletic profile but nowhere near others on output.

Dean has the athletic profile and the game day performances to be deserving of his ranking, which is somewhere between about 4-8 from most estimations.

 

[Stamos]

It is a complete nonsense!

The club values Ison. The first bloke to like your post values Ison, very highly. This strategy completely wipes out the ability to match a bid.

Aside from permutations around picks dropping due to bid matching through the draft, a quick look at the ramifications of a bid at 10 for Dean, which is low by many projections. The points from 21 and 30 are eaten up and nothing remains to match/draft Ison.

It would be 27, not 30, because for Essendon, the picks that are now 27, 28, 29 would disappear, so they get to use the exact same pick, but we get more points.

21 might blow out to 22, but 27 will become 25.

In the above scenario, the earliest bid for Dean would be Melbourne’s first pick (10). We would pocket 128 points to help with Ison.
If they wait till their 2nd pick to bid, we’d get 192 points.

If our later picks come in by 5 each (conservative), we’d be able to match a bid for Ison at 24 if Dean goes 11, at 26 if Dean goes 10.

 

[ctwenty1]

So yo would rather Ison over a top 6 like Robey, Cumming etc ?

Theres probably more likely 3 x options:

-Trade up for a Cummings, Robey type & Dean
-Match Dean and hope for a Dovaston with pick 17,18 odd and get Ison
-Trade pick 9 into next year as Twomey discussed we are looking to do on his show today. We get Dean and Ison only this year

On the last I still think we may pick up another player but will be later pick or even a rookie selection

 

[Blue and Silver]

Going to do the math stuff

Ok so if we get 6, 21, 30 (2834) for 9 & 11(2560) on raw points that is a gain of 170 points

But let's play out a likely scenario.

Pick 1 Willem Duursma - WCE

Pick 2 Zeke Uwland (GC bid match w/ pick 15, 18, 24 get 43 back)

Pick 3 Cooper Duff-Tytler - WCE

Pick 4 Daniel Annable (Bris bid match w/ pick 17, 22, pick 42 get pick 55 back)

Pick 5 Xavier Taylor - Rich

Pick 6 Dylan Patterson (GC bid match w/ pick 25, 26, 33 get pick 53 back)

Pick 7- Sullivan Robey - Rich

Pick 8 - Carlton Pick whoever

Pick 9 - Dean bid ( match w/ 21, 26 get pick 51 back) leaving us with pick 39, 50, 51 to match Ison which would work if the bid comes 25 or 26 (assuming that the 197 points discount for round 2 still applies)

 

[RPCB]

Had a solid laugh listening to Gettable today when they mentioned the AFL will look at making changes surrounding the bidding system and DVI in December this year...

The incompetence never ceases to amaze.

I think Cal and Co talk way too much. They know as much as the rest of us know, but need to fill dead air with constant waffle.

If you were to go back over everything Cal has said over the last 3-4 months about the new FS rules, the new rules should have been announced “next week” about 8 times.

 

[BlueAbroad]

 

[Blue and Silver]

Going to do the math stuff

Ok so if we get 6, 21, 30 (2834) for 9 & 11(2560) on raw points that is a gain of 170 points

But let's play out a likely scenario.

Pick 1 Willem Duursma - WCE

Pick 2 Zeke Uwland (GC bid match w/ pick 15, 18, 24 get 43 back)

Pick 3 Cooper Duff-Tytler - WCE

Pick 4 Daniel Annable (Bris bid match w/ pick 17, 22, pick 42 get pick 55 back)

Pick 5 Xavier Taylor - Rich

Pick 6 Dylan Patterson (GC bid match w/ pick 25, 26, 33 get pick 53 back)

Pick 7- Sullivan Robey - Rich

Pick 8 - Carlt

Pick 9 - Dean bid ( match w/ 21, 26 get pick 51 back) leaving us with pick 39, 50, 51 to match Ison which would work if the bid comes 25 or 26 (assuming that the 197 points discount for round 2 still applies)

I biffed it. We are talking about pick 6 not 5.

So presuming Essendon doesn't bid as part of the deal it pushes pick 6 to 9 and the theoretical bid to 10 which actually works better and nets us a better pick back at 44 to cover Ison better.

If Rich Bid at say 7 then we use pick 9 and 21 and get 22 back ( my understanding is that if you round picks down)

So then it would be Dean at 7 + whoever at 22 with 26 + 39 to cover Ison

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I suspect with so much uncertainty from the AFL, we will look to move back this year to secure Dean and Ison, as well as gain another 1st in the 2026 draft.

It’s widely known the 2025 draft isn’t as good as other years so adding the 2 known commodities plus strengthening our 2026 trade/draft hand is the smart move.

I’d trade with * - something like:
Out: picks 9, pick 11
In: picks 21, 27, 30 and their 2026 1st

 

[Blue and Silver]

I biffed it. We are talking about pick 6 not 5.

So presuming Essendon doesn't bid as part of the deal it pushes pick 6 to 9 and the theoretical bid to 10 which actually works better and nets us a better pick back at 44 to cover Ison better.

If Rich Bid at say 7 then we use pick 9 and 21 and get 22 back ( my understanding is that if you round picks down)

So then it would be Dean at 7 + whoever at 22 with 26 + 39 to cover Ison

So the complicating factor is what deals GC and Bris do as that will affect what picks are used up and how much if at all the picks we get from Ess move.

So if GC trade out pick 15 and 52 (1015) for pick 25 and 26 (1151) for example. Essendon's pick 21 would be 22 but their pick 30 is probably pick 25. Net loss of 6 points value.