Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Uncle Fester]

It doesn’t help with Walker as we are required to use only two picks. Neither of which come close to Walker.

We think we are required to only use 2 picks

 

[Number 10 is cursed]

Worst case scenario…..what if both Dean and Ison were bid on before our first pick?

Would we have enough points to cover that or does it push us into deficit? Would we just let whoever did it take the second player?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Started my annual rewatching of the champs last night, starting with Vic country and SA..one thing that stood out is that Dean and Lyndsay combined very well together.

 

[Stamos]

Best draft prospects ranked 1-50: AFL stars they play like and latest club interest intel

Why four top prospects can’t be picked; biggest bolter in 10 years — AFL Draft Top 50 Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[ferrisb]

I get the feeling that Jack Ison will lead our Goal Assists pretty much every year of his career he plays enough senior games...

 

[Blue__Balls]

If Gresham or Clark go undrafted in both drafts, could they still be available next year?

I was surprised the club potentially sees more chance of Duffy and Monaghan making the grade.

They might not - but if you're gonna go sell the dream to some 18yo kid on the other side of the world, I think you've got something of an obligation to give them a decent run at it from a development standpoint. Hard enough for 18yos to perform at VFL level when they've grown up playing the game, let alone one who'd never touched a Sherrin before.

As a percentage play, it might not be the right call, and some would argue that "club first" means we take the best percentage play even if it's only a 1% difference. But I think the reality is that promises would have been made and if so, should be honoured - would be piss-poor of the club to shaft a young Irish lad just to squeeze in the 80th best player from this year's junior pool.

Gresh and Clarke to me look like the types to spend a year or two on a VFL list and, if they show good progress, get a shot via the MSD at some point.

 

[Matty411]

I'd be saying hell yes to West Coast. They can have Pick 9. We'll take their Future First.

 

[carlton_99]

Best draft prospects ranked 1-50: AFL stars they play like and latest club interest intel

Why four top prospects can’t be picked; biggest bolter in 10 years — AFL Draft Top 50 Rankings

www.foxsports.com.au

The player comparisons in these articles never fail to make me laugh. Some real obscure players picked.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Frustratingly, Cal said on Gettable that the AFL were also waiting until AFTER this years draft to get further insight into how the bid matching is going to help inform the changes for next year. So all this posturing and working out what may be needed for Walker next year and possible deficit rules etc. is all just a guessing game. It is insane to me that decisions are being made by clubs to trade picks into future years when we have no certainty about the value those picks may have. Its a joke

I would assume minimal changes then. No way known that the clubs are gonna sit back and accept the AFL changing the rules for next year's draft after all this years trading is done. Might be they'll do something tokenistic like a reduction/removal of the discount, but leave drastic changes to the Points Index, or completely overhauling the ability match bids with later picks, til 2027.

If so, would be a sign of good leadership and organisation from the AFL - assess what impact the last round of changes has on this draft, determine if the "cost" incurred by GC, Brisbane and Carlton in particular is "fair", and then make minor adjustments for 2026 and lock in larger adjustments for 2027 if warranted.

 

[ctwenty1]

Worst case scenario…..what if both Dean and Ison were bid on before our first pick?

Would we have enough points to cover that or does it push us into deficit? Would we just let whoever did it take the second player?

We wouldnt match Ison

 

[Coona Blues]

I'd be saying hell yes to West Coast. They can have Pick 9. We'll take their Future First.

These are the pick swap scenarios I can get behind. Something that gets us better draft capital next year to cover Cody.

If that was to happen, then we could theoretically then trade the Sydney future first to benefit in this draft if we have targets.

 

[Stamos]

These are the pick swap scenarios I can get behind.

Fantasy trades that will never happen?
Me too!

 

[ferrisb]

I would assume minimal changes then. No way known that the clubs are gonna sit back and accept the AFL changing the rules for next year's draft after all this years trading is done. Might be they'll do something tokenistic like a reduction/removal of the discount, but leave drastic changes to the Points Index, or completely overhauling the ability match bids with later picks, til 2027.

If so, would be a sign of good leadership and organisation from the AFL - assess what impact the last round of changes has on this draft, determine if the "cost" incurred by GC, Brisbane and Carlton in particular is "fair", and then make minor adjustments for 2026 and lock in larger adjustments for 2027 if warranted.

My theory is the AFL and clubs both already broadly know what is coming. The AFL is still fine-tuning the detail and wanted the bad press of 1-2 months ago to go away.

So they told clubs 'Listen, here's the deal.... it's probably going to be X, Y and Z. Capiche? OK, we'll wait for trade week and the draft to blow over and then we will announce the changes when everyone is already thinking about Xmas holidays'.

Best way to minimise the blowback. And gives the AFL the opportunity to 'read the room' on what fans will/won't accept.

 

[ferrisb]

Fantasy trades that will never happen?
Me too!

Hypothetical pick swaps that get you a top 2 pick are the draft week equivalent of a 9-team mega deal during trade week...

 

[Andrewgtv05]

Worst case scenario…..what if both Dean and Ison were bid on before our first pick?

Would we have enough points to cover that or does it push us into deficit? Would we just let whoever did it take the second player?

That would naturally mean the best case scenario is if everyone passes on the two before picks 9 and 11

 

[BluesForEternity]

Kind of crazy, but what if we just gave up a bit on this draft, traded Pick 9 to West Coast for their Future 2nd plus Pick 34, and 53 in this draft? Sounds bad, but after academy bids, it becomes something like:

Out: Pick 12
In: Pick 28ish, Pick 48ish, Future 2nd (likely to be early 20s)

Gives us just a bit more flexibility in 2026 for Cody (or, alternatively, to just outright grab a player in a better draft, off the back of a huge part of our list having contracts expiring in 2026). I think this would also mean we still have enough picks for Dean and Ison, though pretty much nothing else (which I'm fine with...keep extra spots for DFAs or train-on spots).

We win out on points, but I feel like West Coast would potentially be up for this too - they only have 5 spare spots, and this would give them 4 picks in the top 15ish, along with a pick in the late 30s for an NGA/Father Son if they really want one.

 

[Stamos]

Kind of crazy, but what if we just gave up a bit on this draft, traded Pick 9 to West Coast for their Future 2nd plus Pick 34, and 53 in this draft? Sounds bad, but after academy bids, it becomes something like:

Out: Pick 12
In: Pick 28ish, Pick 48ish, Future 2nd (likely to be early 20s)

Gives us just a bit more flexibility in 2026 for Cody (or, alternatively, to just outright grab a player in a better draft, off the back of a huge part of our list having contracts expiring in 2026). I think this would also mean we still have enough picks for Dean and Ison, though pretty much nothing else (which I'm fine with...keep extra spots for DFAs or train-on spots).

We win out on points, but I feel like West Coast would potentially be up for this too - they only have 5 spare spots, and this would give them 4 picks in the top 15ish, along with a pick in the late 30s for an NGA/Father Son if they really want one.

Yeah, I see us having 2 possible strategies, and they may be entirely flexible up until a Dean bid.

1. Dean, 1st (potentially even before Dean), Ison
2. Dean, Ison, late pick + 2026

Who knows which way we'll go?

 

[Matty411]

Kind of crazy, but what if we just gave up a bit on this draft, traded Pick 9 to West Coast for their Future 2nd plus Pick 34, and 53 in this draft? Sounds bad, but after academy bids, it becomes something like:

Out: Pick 12
In: Pick 28ish, Pick 48ish, Future 2nd (likely to be early 20s)

Gives us just a bit more flexibility in 2026 for Cody (or, alternatively, to just outright grab a player in a better draft, off the back of a huge part of our list having contracts expiring in 2026). I think this would also mean we still have enough picks for Dean and Ison, though pretty much nothing else (which I'm fine with...keep extra spots for DFAs or train-on spots).

We win out on points, but I feel like West Coast would potentially be up for this too - they only have 5 spare spots, and this would give them 4 picks in the top 15ish, along with a pick in the late 30s for an NGA/Father Son if they really want one.

I'd be more inclined to give a little more value from the future to go with Pick 9 and ask for Weagles' 2026 First.

I'd even include - as has been suggested - the Swans future (or 27) first. Getting messy, but:

Live Trade:

CAR gets: WCE 26' R1, Picks 34 and 41 (likely to be higher after bids)
WCE gets: CAR Pick 9, SYD F1 (2026)

Blues waive the chance of any more than Dean/Ison this year but get closer to locking them in through points and get a massive chance of getting ahead of Cody (or at least guaranteeing him) for 2026. The Eagles' picks may rise into the 20s and early 30s after the Suns/Lions bids so could get us there. Use 11 to lock in Dean.

Eagles get another top pick right now to close off their rebuild group in a tight age gap. They may see themselves rising up the ladder a little in 2026 (despite nobody else believing it). Few clubs may fall below them at least.

I don't mind the * one either (with 6/F1).

 

[ctwenty1]

Yeah, I see us having 2 possible strategies, and they may be entirely flexible up until a Dean bid.

1. Dean, 1st (potentially even before Dean), Ison
2. Dean, Ison, late pick + 2026

Who knows which way we'll go?

Comes back to how we rate any potential players we may pick up - this year or next

And if we feel we need cover for next year's changes which we have no idea what they are

 

[BluesForEternity]

I'd be more inclined to give a little more value from the future to go with Pick 9 and ask for Weagles' 2026 First.

I'd even include - as has been suggested - the Swans future (or 27) first. Getting messy, but:

Live Trade:

CAR gets: WCE 26' R1, Picks 34 and 41 (likely to be higher after bids)
WCE gets: CAR Pick 9, SYD F1 (2026)

Blues waive the chance of any more than Dean/Ison this year but get closer to locking them in through points and get a massive chance of getting ahead of Cody (or at least guaranteeing him) for 2026. The Eagles' picks may rise into the 20s and early 30s after the Suns/Lions bids so could get us there. Use 11 to lock in Dean.

Eagles get another top pick right now to close off their rebuild group in a tight age gap. They may see themselves rising up the ladder a little in 2026 (despite nobody else believing it). Few clubs may fall below them at least.

I don't mind the * one either (with 6/F1).

I'd be down for this, though I feel like we'd have to offer more for WCE to give up their F1.

Maybe something like:

Out: Pick 9, Sydney F1, Sydney FF1
In: Picks 34 and 41, WCE F1, WCE FF2

Honestly, I'd be fine with this. We'd probably then have two first round picks in the 2026 draft (which is meant to be excellent), and still have our natural first for 2027.

 

[Stamos]

Comes back to how we rate any potential players we may pick up - this year or next

And if we feel we need cover for next year's changes which we have no idea what they are

Will be interesting on how decided we are before the draft, or, if it is entirely dependent on how the first 10-14 picks play out.

 

[Stamos]

I'd be down for this, though I feel like we'd have to offer more for WCE to give up their F1.

Maybe something like:

Out: Pick 9, Sydney F1, Sydney FF1
In: Picks 34 and 41, WCE F1, WCE FF2

Honestly, I'd be fine with this. We'd probably then have two first round picks in the 2026 draft (which is meant to be excellent), and still have our natural first for 2027.

I'm not giving up 3 x 1sts for a single F1.
Way too risky.

 

[Sector 7G]

Fantasy trades that will never happen?
Me too!

Sometimes crazy things happen -See North trading F1 last year or GCS when they swapped the F1 for Sharp.

 

[Stamos]

Sometimes crazy things happen -See North trading F1 last year or GCS when they swapped the F1 for Sharp.

True.
But the specifics of this draft had influence on the North trade, and the difficulty for us to get an amazing F2026 trade done.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Kind of crazy, but what if we just gave up a bit on this draft, traded Pick 9 to West Coast for their Future 2nd plus Pick 34, and 53 in this draft? Sounds bad, but after academy bids, it becomes something like:

Out: Pick 12
In: Pick 28ish, Pick 48ish, Future 2nd (likely to be early 20s)

Gives us just a bit more flexibility in 2026 for Cody (or, alternatively, to just outright grab a player in a better draft, off the back of a huge part of our list having contracts expiring in 2026). I think this would also mean we still have enough picks for Dean and Ison, though pretty much nothing else (which I'm fine with...keep extra spots for DFAs or train-on spots).

We win out on points, but I feel like West Coast would potentially be up for this too - they only have 5 spare spots, and this would give them 4 picks in the top 15ish, along with a pick in the late 30s for an NGA/Father Son if they really want one.

This is what I’m hoping.
Even if we could walk away with no deficit and WC and Essendon’s future seconds I think that would be a really good result.