Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[james Dean]

Are West Coast just being w***ers, or is Dean worthy of a pick 2?

 

[juzza316]

Norths 2026 2nd rounder could be like a late first rounder.....

Watch them make finals next year

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Essendon are likely trying to get 2 from WCE and would get the later WCE picks back if they did

 

[josephone]

Also worth noting with new bidding rules next year North's second rounder may end up being before pick 20.

 

[chuncey]

Ok so let's do the math!

Deal 1

Pick 9 (1355) for 21 (721), 27 (533)

Is on face value a loss of 100 points.

BUT

We know that at least Uwland will be bid before hand, probably at 2.

That would cost them 15, 18, 24 getting back pick 43.

After that pick 9 is 10, 21 is 20 and 27 is 25

So the values become 10 (1276) for 20 (757) and 25 (590) which is a gain of 71 points.

If a bid for Annable happens before Dean, say at pick 5 then Bris match with with 17, 22 and 42, and get back 45.

This would push 9 back to 11 and bring 25 in to 24 which would give us a value boost of about 100 more points.

Deal 2

11 for 25 and a future 2nd.

On base value we are losing 615 points this year, but gaining points next year

But if we assume the same two bids and matches then 11 becomes 13 and 25 becomes 22.

That would mean losing about 400 points this year.

It would also mean that a Dean match in this scenario at 6 would cost us 20, 24 & 25 getting back 30.

Altogether we get about the same matching value for Dean and a future second and insurance that we can match Ison.

Our third pick would likely be a Second rounder.

Deals make sense.

Cal also said “key parts of the swap”. Possibly a swap of a future third for a future fourth, or something like that.

 

[Sickblue]

I’d hope our trade with Dons is this:

Blues give picks 9, 43 and 54

Receive from Dons: 21, 27 and 30

43 and 54 help dons land one or both academy players and 21, 27 and 30 gives us for points with Dean plus Ison..

Surely it’s more like this?

 

[Jimmae]

Norths 2026 2nd rounder could be like a late first rounder.....

Watch them make finals next year

They were trying to climb this season, so they'll definitely start now. Watching themselves squander pick 4 in the draft would have stung.

 

[Bletch]

Ok so let's do the math!

Deal 1

Pick 9 (1355) for 21 (721), 27 (533)

Is on face value a loss of 100 points.

BUT

We know that at least Uwland will be bid before hand, probably at 2.

That would cost them 15, 18, 24 getting back pick 43.

After that pick 9 is 10, 21 is 20 and 27 is 25

So the values become 10 (1276) for 20 (757) and 25 (590) which is a gain of 71 points.

If a bid for Annable happens before Dean, say at pick 5 then Bris match with with 17, 22 and 42, and get back 45.

This would push 9 back to 11 and bring 25 in to 24 which would give us a value boost of about 100 more points.

Deal 2

11 for 25 and a future 2nd.

On base value we are losing 615 points this year, but gaining points next year

But if we assume the same two bids and matches then 11 becomes 13 and 25 becomes 22.

That would mean losing about 400 points this year.

It would also mean that a Dean match in this scenario at 6 would cost us 20, 24 & 25 getting back 30.

Altogether we get about the same matching value for Dean and a future second and insurance that we can match Ison.

Our third pick would likely be a Second rounder.

Deals make sense.

Agree, makes sense...

Unless... A bid for Dean comes first. Or, if GC find deals for 15 and 18.

So we can't really do this until we know where Dean is going to fall. And that gives GC the opportunity to deal first.

If it does go as above, I'd be hoping we get a future pick back from Essendon - possibly handing them 54 as coverage for their NGAs.

 

[BlueNath]

Are West Coast just being w***ers, or is Dean worthy of a pick 2?

For all the talk of "making clubs pay", I personally believe clubs do not play Russian roulette with their picks and only bid on a player that they are genuinely interested in and have done all their homework etc. So if they were to place a bid on Dean at 2 or 3, I personally believe its because thats where he is on THEIR draft board, and therefore, they will be over the moon if we decided to pass on Dean (felt like it was too much to pay).

Having said this, I do also believe WC have nothing to lose in leaking said interest at pick 2 to the public to potentially help force us to trade them pick 9 for 13 and 34 (with the promise they will now NOT bid on Dean). But I dont think we are falling for this.

So yes, they are being w***ers IMO

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

I hope we hold off on these dumb trades until a bid is actually being made.

Really disappointed we aren’t going to just let our second pick slide and get another player in the later first round.

 

[Jimmae]

I’d hope our trade with Dons is this:

Blues give picks 9, 43 and 54

Receive from Dons: 21, 27 and 30

43 and 54 help dons land one or both academy players and 21, 27 and 30 gives us for points with Dean plus Ison..

Surely it’s more like this?

From our perspective it would be like giving up 12, 38, and 48 for 21, 25, and 26, which is +353 points.

From their perspective it's like giving up 21, 27, and 28 for 13, and say 36, and 45, so a top 15 selection and 467 points, which almost covers Sweid up to pick 26.

I can see him being bid on slightly higher than that unless he's still got structural issues with the knee.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

But I dont think we are falling for this

We'd just ring them up and ask.

 

[V23]

Looks like it’s payback time from the Eagles (bidding on Dean at Pick 2) after we fleeced them with that Pick 3/Owies trade

 

[Blue and Silver]

Then here's what you do: let them have Dean. He's not worth that.

You do not get held to ransom. I take the Richmond talk as bluster as well, because we might actually be in a position to trade with them, so they can turn around and say to their members that they engineered a trade on the back of a bluff.

Your deals are excluding the possibility of Patterson being bid on before Dean, which is a wild take from Richmond's recruitment team.

Yeah, I was mostly looking at the picks eliminated.

That bid would push 9 further back, but would not improve the new picks. Without doing the numbers maybe 100-80 points of value gain

 

[Blue and Silver]

I hope we hold off on these dumb trades until a bid is actually being made.

Really disappointed we aren’t going to just let our second pick slide and get another player in the later first round.

I think the risk is losing Ison. They are trying to ensure Dean + Ison plus more value in 26

 

[Jimmae]

Looks like it’s payback time from the Eagles (bidding on Dean at Pick 2) after we fleeced them with that Pick 3/Owies trade

That trade was good for them? They should have no complaints.

Yeah, I was mostly looking at the picks eliminated.

That bid would push 9 further back, but would not improve the new picks. Without doing the numbers maybe 100-80 points of value gain

It does, however, improve the cost of acquiring Dean.

 

[AT97]

Looks like it’s payback time from the Eagles (bidding on Dean at Pick 2) after we fleeced them with that Pick 3/Owies trade

Not sure what they would be complaining about it’s not as if we gave them Michael Aitken.

 

[BluesForEternity]

North board reporting that the trade with them is likely to look something like 11+54 for 25+46+F2. That's a pretty good trade, IMO, given that 11 will be pushed back to 14 and all the later picks will become higher in the order.

Essendon board also theorising (with less certainty) it might be 9+43 for 21+27+30. Would be a great points boost for us, basically guaranteeing we can match Dean at pick 3 and Ison at pick 17 (crazy high guesses obviously...but not entirely outside of the realm of possibility).

Basically, the outcome of this is that our current draft hand becomes Dean+Ison+North's F2. Not as great as people might have hoped, but I think Dean and Ison are both going to get higher bids than we had originally hoped, and the F2 from North should realistically still be a solid pick to play with for Cody.

 

[BlueNath]

We'd just ring them up and ask.

Us: "Are you guys serious about placing a bid on Dean at 2 or 3?"
WC: "Ummmm, yeeaaaarrrrrh. How about you give us pick 9. We'll give you picks 13, and 34. And we promise we wont bid on Dean"
Us: "You're not lying to us?"
WC: "No, no no mate. No lies. Only truths. You can trust us. You're f***ed if you don't do the deal with us. So how about it?"

 

[Opium]

Pretty poor for us. Disappointing if thats the best we can do.

Timing of Curnow leaving and bidding rule changes has really stung us.

Another F1 or a later 1st round pick this year was the pass mark for me (in addition to Dean+Ison), so that'd be a fail.

Essendon deal better if they can guarantee no bid on Dean, but pointless if Richmond bids before them.

I agree. Trading Charlie not looking like a great move now.

 

[Opium]

no club wants to trade a future first. not much we can do about it

That was always on the cards. Next years draft is much stronger. Surely the list managers would of known that. That pick 11 we got for Charlie is now completely wasted

 

[carlton_99]

That was ashtrays on the cards. Next years draft is much stronger. Surely the most managers would of known that. That pick 11 we got for Charlie is now completely wasted

It's being turned into points for this year to get Dean/Ison and a good pick next year in a stronger draft. How is that wasted?

 

[Stamos]

I’d hope our trade with Dons is this:

Blues give picks 9, 43 and 54

Receive from Dons: 21, 27 and 30

43 and 54 help dons land one or both academy players and 21, 27 and 30 gives us for points with Dean plus Ison..

Surely it’s more like this?

That’s too even on points.
I think we’d need more to be giving up #9.

 

[AT97]

North board reporting that the trade with them is likely to look something like 11+54 for 25+46+F2. That's a pretty good trade, IMO, given that 11 will be pushed back to 14 and all the later picks will become higher in the order.

Essendon board also theorising (with less certainty) it might be 9+43 for 21+27+30. Would be a great points boost for us, basically guaranteeing we can match Dean at pick 3 and Ison at pick 17 (crazy high guesses obviously...but not entirely outside of the realm of possibility).

Basically, the outcome of this is that our current draft hand becomes Dean+Ison+North's F2. Not as great as people might have hoped, but I think Dean and Ison are both going to get higher bids than we had originally hoped, and the F2 from North should realistically still be a solid pick to play with for Cody.

In that scenario does that leave us anything for another pick?

 

[Opium]

It's being turned into points for this year to get Dean/Ison and a good pick next year in a stronger draft. How is that wasted?

Giving up pick 9 for a future second? We already have the draft capital for Dean and Ison.