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Analysis 2025 Draft watch

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Stamos said:
When you match your used picks move to the back of the draft, you are able to fill your list.

However, it’s looking like we’ll be holding 2 spots open for the SSP, rather than 1.
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One for Lij and one for a mature key position player to add some depth? I'm not all over the list spots situation like smarter people here but hopefully that's the outcome.

Not the worst outcome. Would have been nice to get the extra first round player this year but Dean, Ison and more currency next year definitely isn't the worst.
 
If Twomey's report is factual, giving up 2 first round picks for essentially Dean, some pick upgrades on 43 and 54 and nxt yrs 2nd is not a great result. However, I am not sure Wright and Austin were to know where the Dean bid was to fall when they did the Curnow deal. The new f/s rules should not apply to teams who finish from 11 to 18th. It makes it too hard to rebuild
 
Opium said:
At the end of the day is Dean worth pick 9 and 11 in isolation. First draftee to cost two first rounders.
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You’re overthinking it.

Dean is an elite key back who probably would and should be picked in the top 3 this year. It may drift out to a few picks later due to being father / son.

This is a player you build your backline around and if he did cost picks 9 and 11 at worst, you take that and run.

Watch him live and you’ll see this kid is the real deal.

Don’t overthink picks we are giving up this year. We only want Dean and Ison and maybe some more picks for next year.

Adding Dean and Ison for ultimately 2 picks is a very very smart move
 

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Is this correct?

OUT: Sam Docherty, Orazio Fantasia, Harry Lemmey, Jaxon Binns, Elijah Hollands (), Alex Cincotta, Will White (), Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Corey Durdin, Charlie Curnow

IN: Liam Reidy, Campbell Chesser, Ben Ainsworth, Oliver Florent, Will Hayward
PLUS: Harry Dean, Jack Ison, plus F1 (2026) and F1 (2027, noting also picks going back other way), with the 2026 F1 to help with getting Cody Walker, plus 2 more players (one being possibly EH? or WW?)

Does basically getting Dean and Ison (with Dean essentially being available to us because of F/S, and most likely not being available at our current pick #9) somewhat balance the 'OUTS' and 'INS'?
 
Surely you can work with WC, North and Essendon to get a better outcome.
Would WC have their future second on the table if we offered 9?
They could get Dean to pick 5 which saves us a heap of points.
Something like pick 9 for 34 and a future second and they bid on Patterson and Uwland.


If not just try 13 and 34 for 9 and they don’t bid while still bidding on Uwland and Patterson.
Trade 13 to North for 25 this season and their future second.
Trade 11 and some later picks to Essendon for say 27, 30 and a future second

Gives us two future seconds plus 25, 27,30 and 34 while Dean gets to atleast 5.

It just seems we should be able to do better but who knows
 
BlueNath said:
HS reporting that the mooted swap with Ess is 21, 27 and 30 for pick 9! That is better than expected with what has been floated on here
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Well that's silly by Essendon unless they believe Sweid won't see a bid until pick 37 at best, which I don't believe to be the case.

They could trade 9 back again via Gold Coast, but it only helps them pay for a pick 28 bid, while giving them pick 15 (pick 19 by the time they use it). So potentially 21, 25, and 26 into 19 and 28... I think instead they'd be just chasing Sharp or Grlj and winging it from there.

I remain hopeful it's reflective of two things for us:

1. Scenario planning and ruffling feathers, rather than a confirmation.
2. It shows how valuable that pick may remain in a trade-up scenario with Richmond, as clearly Essendon think it's worth throwing everything else they have in 2025 at it.

I think what we saw early in the trade period from Hawthorn is that they were prepared to trade down if it meant getting another pick in the top 25 of this draft.

They were willing to take a small bet on our strategy in the process (i.e. 9 would be consumed in a Dean bid), but they were still more than happy to shed what would become probably picks 34 and 35 just to move their 2nd round pick up maybe 4 or 5 spots.

The Essendon trade proposal is further confirmation of Hawthorn's analysis on the quality of the top 25ish vs the rest. I believe there is still more to play out.
BlueNath said:
For me yes. Have you watched Deans year? But you have overly simplified the logic. It's not just Dean. We get the extra points to know we can secure Ison also without going into deficit (critical for Cody). Also, we get a (likely early) F2.
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If the result was that we only got Dean and Ison and spare change, the sum totality so far is:

OUT: TDK, Charlie, Jack, 2027 R2

IN: Dean, Ison, Hayward, 2026 R1 (Sydney), 2026 R2 (North), 2027 R1 (Sydney)

If we have a good season and we're lucky, the existing 2026 first rounders pay for Walker, and it's a middling outcome that we need to recover in free agency.

As I've said repeatedly, it's not better identifying the situation with TDK at the end of 2024 that stings the most. He should have been locked away or traded.

Accepting a bid for Dean in the 3-7 range compounds it IMO.

Mondyboy said:
Jimmae and your idea that we allow Harry to swing is a choice that would have ramifications beyond the draft. It's a culture killer. It has Cody and other father sons or NGAs think twice before committing to the club. It says we don't honour an agreement.

And for what? To win the draft? To pick up a Dovaston or Greaves or any number of players who won't be as good as Dean? (yes, I know Jimmae doesn't rate him. He's about the only one I've seen).

It's a crap situation that they are trying to make the best of. But it's a taste of what next year will be like and then 2027 when our picks are diluted.
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Mondyboy said:
It’s easy being a mercenary on BigFooty when you haven’t been dealing with the Dean family for years and have made private and public promises that we would pick up Harry. To then turn around and say, yeah nah because Harry is a little bit too good and has captured the interest of other clubs is a heel move. I’d be ashamed of the club if they did it.

Yes, we are being held to ransom. But that’s the way the draft in 2025 works and clubs will do what they can to screw an oppo. We’re going to be held to ransom next year as well.
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I don't appreciate my argument being lumped in with his, but taking your other points it's worth a lot more than that the outcome you've ascribed to it, and that is why expectations should be managed with players and staff. It's a business, one we should be a lot more successful in.

Even holding 9 and 11 would likely result in:

  • One of Sharp, Grlj, Taylor, Cumming, and Robey, all of whom who are at Dean's level, some arguably above
  • One of Schubert, Greeves, Farrow, Marsh, Hibbens-Hargraves, who are all very close to Dean's level and can realistically move past him

So this idea that Dean should eat up most of those two picks is a horrendous result given there is a discount.

Premiership Quarter said:
Also I don’t see how Gold Coast get their 5 prize academy players when their first pick is a latish first rounder and one will go at pick 2 and another one early. How are they doing it and we have to sell the farm for Dean
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The current thinking is they will see bids on Addinsall and Murray in the second round, and they will pass on one of them.

My pick is they will secure Addinsall.
HereComesJuddy said:
This is a player you build your backline around
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With respect, he's not. He's an above average player with notable elite traits, but he's not going to break tall opponents apart when his read is off. His fallback is being quick and recovering from mistakes when that's available to him, or being able to sit on smaller opponents and blanket them instead.

He might be an upgrade on Jack in time, but he's not a replacement for Weitering. Jacob is on another level, and we should see that next season with the overall improvement in midfield transition, same as we will in Saad.
 
Burgers45 said:
Interesting report from tomorrows HUN, Eagles could stuff up our entire draft plans re Dean.

https://archive.md/https://www.hera...n/news-story/823ba623ba1987c9236d178dcbcec6a8
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. If the trades with Essendon and North go ahead as reported, we should be able to match both bids even if Dean gets bid on at pick 2.

Still can't see Ison getting a bid until the mid 20's - but if he does get a bid a little earlier, our 2nd round pick in 2026 will just slide a few notches.

It's worth checking out Pommy's draft simulator, GREAT resource.
 

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CrippaTheGoat9 said:
So who could be in that 30s range that we could select? Ludowkye?
Click to expand...
No, he'd almost definitely be gone, unless there are concerns with his knee.

In a scenario of something like Dean at 6, and Ison at 24, it's a pick that probably lands at 32 or 33, but we'll also have a back end pick which might slide into 48, and that may entice a club to let us trade up a little.

Depending on sliders, that's a good landing spot for Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier, maybe Blake Thredgold. If a player like Ludowyke, Hibbens-Hargreaves or Greeves slipped through, we'd be doing cartwheels but Hawthorn, the Dogs, and North would be ahead of us.
 
Jimmae said:
No, he'd almost definitely be gone, unless there are concerns with his knee.

In a scenario of something like Dean at 6, and Ison at 24, it's a pick that probably lands at 32 or 33, but we'll also have a back end pick which might slide into 48, and that may entice a club to let us trade up a little.

Depending on sliders, that's a good landing spot for Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier, maybe Blake Thredgold. If a player like Ludowyke, Hibbens-Hargreaves or Greeves slipped through, we'd be doing cartwheels but Hawthorn, the Dogs, and North would be ahead of us.
Click to expand...
Hopefully it’s a similar situation to Joel Selwood for our sake. I don’t watch the amount of footage and games as other people but from what I’ve seen Ludowyke seems to be the better forward prospect out of all that’s been discussed. He reminds me of Cadman.

The dream for me is Dovaston as for years we’ve been lacking an elite small forward but after tonight’s reports we are gifting the scum with Dovaston.

I’m really losing faith in Austin.

But I’m hoping for a slide and for once we get lucky and we can get a Ludowyke.
 
You know if WC really wanted Dean, and not just to screw us, they could bid on Dean at 1. Its probably the one bid we might not match. And they still get their no.1 Duursma at 2. Switch the order and end up with both players they want.

Thats if they were genuinely keen. I dont expect them to do that of course.
 
marcmurphy3 said:
If we go all out for 2025 points as is reported, I think its because we expect a very early bid on Dean.

So doubt theres much change once weve matched Dean+Ison. If we do take a 3rd pick it'd be very late or we'd need to trade Norths F2 back in (Id be hesitant to).
Click to expand...
Again, I still see this as scenario planning, and to flex a little might on clubs that are trying to pick us off with weak trades (e.g. West Coast).

For all we know, Essendon are doing us a favour in the hopes that we help them line up 2 players they want at their first two picks. Step 1 would be scaring off the Eagles. Step 2 would involve us finding away to appease Richmond in a trade.

If our drafting interests at pick 4/7 align with theirs for the following two picks, maybe Dean will then slide through to Melbourne.
 

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North's F2 could be used to combine with Sydney's F1 to move up the order next year too...

While I'd like for us to add a Dovaston or Lindsay, it's not a tragedy if we don't.

And of course, we'd prefer a F1 but no one is trading those... unless it's a late first, in which case, won't be too far off North's 2nd anyway.

These rumoured trades aren't too bad...

We end up with 21, 25, 27, 30 and F2(North)

WC will bid on Uwland with pick 2 and then select a player with pick 3 if we don't have 9 + 11 anymore, there's zero benefit to them bidding on Dean.

So worst case after that, Richmond bid on him with #4.

Pick 4 bid = 1766pts required (after 10% discount)

Scenario 1:

If we keep our picks, we'd have 10 + 12 = 2416pts.

2416 - 1766 = 650 = So we get Dean and we get pick 24 back. That moves up 1 place because of pick consumption, so it ends up being pick 23.

Scenario 2:

If we execute these trades, (excluding North's F2 because it's irrelevant for points this year) we have picks: 20, 23, 25, 28 = 2505 pts.

So we get Dean and end up with pick 26 and pick 39. How I figured that out was, I combined 20 + 23 + 25 = 2000pts - 1766 = 234 = pick 41 coming back. Subtract a couple picks as they got consumed, = pick 39. Our 28 becomes 26.

So we're looking at Scenario 1 having pick 23 OR Scenario 2 having pick 26 + 39 + F2(North)

I'll take Scenario 2 thanks...
 
Swings and roundabouts


TDK was taken at our pick 30, our picks 3 and 10 that year were Dow and O’Brien (SOS was panned for taking TDK speculatively at 30).

JSOS is one of the better few pick 50 odds in AFL draft history, playing over 100 games and netting us an end of first round pick (22) as a free agent.

Charlie was a pick 12 from memory, over 100 games, 2 time Coleman medallist, and netted us 3 First Round picks and Hayward for a bunch of lower picks the other way.


Not going into all the failed picks, and there are plenty and it’s for another thread, just noting the advantage of having players with currency this year.
 
CrippaTheGoat9 said:
Hopefully it’s a similar situation to Joel Selwood for our sake. I don’t watch the amount of footage and games as other people but from what I’ve seen Ludowyke seems to be the better forward prospect out of all that’s been discussed. He reminds me of Cadman.

The dream for me is Dovaston as for years we’ve been lacking an elite small forward but after tonight’s reports we are gifting the scum with Dovaston.

I’m really losing faith in Austin.

But I’m hoping for a slide and for once we get lucky and we can get a Ludowyke.
Click to expand...

I've always questioned austins ability under pressure. he has no hard edge about him
 
Blue_Fusion said:
North's F2 could be used to combine with Sydney's F1 to move up the order next year too...

While I'd like for us to add a Dovaston or Lindsay, it's not a tragedy if we don't.

And of course, we'd prefer a F1 but no one is trading those... unless it's a late first, in which case, won't be too far off North's 2nd anyway.

These rumoured trades aren't too bad...

We end up with 21, 25, 27, 30 and F2(North)

WC will bid on Uwland with pick 2 and then select a player with pick 3 if we don't have 9 + 11 anymore, there's zero benefit to them bidding on Dean.

So worst case after that, Richmond bid on him with #4.

Pick 4 bid = 1766pts required (after 10% discount)

Scenario 1:

If we keep our picks, we'd have 10 + 12 = 2416pts.

2416 - 1766 = 650 = So we get Dean and we get pick 24 back. That moves up 1 place because of pick consumption, so it ends up being pick 23.

Scenario 2:

If we execute these trades, (excluding North's F2 because it's irrelevant for points this year) we have picks: 20, 23, 25, 28 = 2505 pts.

So we get Dean and end up with pick 26 and pick 39. How I figured that out was, I combined 20 + 23 + 25 = 2000pts - 1766 = 234 = pick 41 coming back. Subtract a couple picks as they got consumed, = pick 39. Our 28 becomes 26.

So we're looking at Scenario 1 having pick 23 OR Scenario 2 having pick 26 + 39 + F2(North)

I'll take Scenario 2 thanks...
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing this - makes it easier to understand.
 
Last edited:
Blue_Fusion said:
North's F2 could be used to combine with Sydney's F1 to move up the order next year too...

While I'd like for us to add a Dovaston or Lindsay, it's not a tragedy if we don't.

And of course, we'd prefer a F1 but no one is trading those... unless it's a late first, in which case, won't be too far off North's 2nd anyway.

These rumoured trades aren't too bad...

We end up with 21, 25, 27, 30 and F2(North)

WC will bid on Uwland with pick 2 and then select a player with pick 3 if we don't have 9 + 11 anymore, there's zero benefit to them bidding on Dean.

So worst case after that, Richmond bid on him with #4.

Pick 4 bid = 1766pts required (after 10% discount)

Scenario 1:

If we keep our picks, we'd have 10 + 12 = 2416pts.

2416 - 1766 = 650 = So we get Dean and we get pick 24 back. That moves up 1 place because of pick consumption, so it ends up being pick 23.

Scenario 2:

If we execute these trades, (excluding North's F2 because it's irrelevant for points this year) we have picks: 20, 23, 25, 28 = 2505 pts.

So we get Dean and end up with pick 26 and pick 39. How I figured that out was, I combined 20 + 23 + 25 = 2000pts - 1766 = 234 = pick 41 coming back. Subtract a couple picks as they got consumed, = pick 39. Our 28 becomes 26.

So we're looking at Scenario 1 having pick 23 OR Scenario 2 having pick 26 + 39 + F2(North)

I'll take Scenario 2 thanks...
Click to expand...
my brain hurts
 
ctwenty1 said:
Deal hasn’t been done has it?
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Excuse my ignorance, but how does trading picks 9 and 11 for three second round picks in this draft work, as our two first rounders are worth 716 more points than the others.......I cannot get my head around that, so if someone could explain this whole damn points thing I would appreciate it.......going out backwards.......o_O
 

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