Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue__Balls]

I think it will be much more we will have preferred an F1, and are settling with North’s F2 as the best offer.

Sure - but to your point re: not getting another draftee in the 20's range this year, that NM future second is something that could absolutely get us back on the board this year. And having it as a future asset is actually quite helpful, as it's not impacted at all by an early bid for Dean. It holds it's value through all this year's permutations, and we can dangle it as long as we want and as long as there is a player we'd be happy to spend it on.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I’d say so, which also means we can now freely compare and liken him to Viojo-Rainbow without any fear.

Reminds me of former Carlton and Melbourne player, Chris Johnson. He was a sublime kick but only managed about 15 games for us.

 

[GT619]

While I’d hoped we might trade up, it’s a seller’s market and it doesn’t seem realistic now given the external factors and uncertainty around a potential bid on Dean.

That said, this is an incredibly shrewd piece of business.

The reality is that turning pick 9 into 21, 27 and 30 is a smart strategic return on its own.

Now factor in that WCE are almost certainly bidding on Uwland at pick 2 - which effectively shifts those picks to 20, 25 and 28, as the Suns have to use 15, 18 and 24 to match the bid.

And when you add the pick 25 coming from North (and ignore the F2, which isn’t relevant here and is just a bonus), even if WCE did bid on Dean at 3 (which I still think is unlikely) the worst-case scenario is that we still hold pick 30.

There’s also the options of parlaying some of these picks and trade up with GC/Bris if possible. But I think we’ve done a great job in calling WCE’s bluff of being forced into a trade of 9 for/ 13 and 34.

Bravo.

might explain tobyn murray interest

 

[marcmurphy3]

Sure - but to your point re: not getting another draftee in the 20's range this year, that NM future second is something that could absolutely get us back on the board this year. And having it as a future asset is actually quite helpful, as it's not impacted at all by an early bid for Dean. It holds it's value through all this year's permutations, and we can dangle it as long as we want and as long as there is a player we'd be happy to spend it on.

I think a F2 holds more value, then players likely to be available at 25-30, however as you pointed out if a player we love slides, it gives us an option that wont be eaten up.

 

[macky99]

Of course Gold Coast “look like they managed their draft hand better”, they knew they had 2 top 5 players as part of a really strong academy contingent and spent 2 years setting up for it.

Meanwhile we were happy to wipe this weak, compromised draft. Nobody was expecting Harry Dean to be a top 5 player after missing 3 years of footy.

That is a fair point, also worth noting Brisbane have Dan Annable probably rated top five for most of the year with a far worse draft hand than us, cannot understand why someone would not bid on him, seems the media are talking up Dean's value.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

If Dean and Ison cost us Picks 9 and 11, I'm more than ok with it

They are both elite. Dean is a generational defender, not only from a physical point of view but from a mental mindset pov.

The mental/mindset/combative/ncer give up/intense pov >>>>>>>> the physical attributes. Dean HAS BOTH!!!!!

How many picks have we burnt on poor quality in the past. I'll sleep easy at night paying a premium for them. As Benjamin Franklin said

“The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten.”
​

 

[Opium]

We’ve got a 27 F3

That will be in the 60s with Tasmania draft concessions. Lucky to even be used.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

If Dean and Ison cost us Picks 9 and 11, I'm more than ok with it

They are both elite. Dean is a generational defender, not only from a physical point of view but from a mental mindset pov.

The mental/mindset/combative/ncer give up/intense pov >>>>>>>> the physical attributes. Dean HAS BOTH!!!!!

How many picks have we burnt on poor quality in the past. I'll sleep easy at night paying a premium for them. As Benjamin Franklin said

“The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten.”​

​

This is the exact same phrase my wife uses to justify buying Gucci shoes.

 

[ctwenty1]

Excuse my ignorance, but how does trading picks 9 and 11 for three second round picks in this draft work, as our two first rounders are worth 716 more points than the others.......I cannot get my head around that, so if someone could explain this whole damn points thing I would appreciate it.......going out backwards.......

Pretty sure we will end up with more points and don’t forget to add in the north F2

 

[Bletch]

Just ran the numbers on this:

Trade 1:
Car - 9, 54, FF3
Ess - 21, 27, F2

Trade 2:
Car - 11
NM - 25, 46, F2

Draft hand: 21, 25, 27, 43, 46 plus two x 2026 round 2 picks (and lose a 2027 round 3 pick)

Depending on where other bids occur, it should cover a bid on Dean as early as 3, and a bid on Ison at 25. Also depends on what other live trades might happen.

 

[Jimmae]

So so are likely heading into the draft with 21, 25, 27, 30, 46

Potential to walk away with Dean, Ison, F2 .. and potentially Pickett/Ludowyke (both I think will slide to the mid-late 20s.).

Not behd.

I think that's a good outcome for a worst case scenario, but we're not there yet.

We all knew we'd be scenario planning and organising potential trades in advance, and this is that.

So it seems what it boils down to is this:

No trade- Dean, Ison and a third player (roughly pick 17-25).

Trade - Dean, Ison, a third player (pick 23-28) and North’s F2.

Sure. Especially if you are of the view that outside the top dozen it’s a pretty even draft, and next year is much stronger.

If an F1 wasn’t on the table then North’s F2 is close to the next best thing.

It's not very even after the top dozen, as evidenced by the behaviour of North, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast, the Dogs, and Essendon. Everyone intentionally sitting back with picks after 30 are looking to match bids.

It's two tiers in the top 13 or 14, then another tier after that down to about 30, and all of this is including academy players. Nobody wants to be holding a live pick far outside that top 30 right now.

This hits the nail on the head. Great analysis.

They're set to go into 1st or 2nd round deficit, depending on how they handle bids for Addinsall and Murray...

If 30 isn't involved 13+34 from WC with a promise not to bid on dean is a way better deal.

Not exactly, and it depends on where a Dean bid comes in.

2nd bid: 14 + 32 (1429 points) vs 20 + 25 (1347 points)
3rd bid (assume GCx2): 15 + 31 (1402) vs 21 + 26 (1282)
3rd bid (GC + BL): 15 + 30 (1427) vs 20 + 24 (1378)
4th bid: 16 + 32 (1329) vs 21 + 25 (1311)

Then you have to factor in the exact pick you are matching, and what else is happening with your draft hand (e.g. the North trade proposal)... the further out things get, the better that version of the Essendon deal starts to look.

For the other rumoured Essendon trade, you need to factor in the impact of anything additionally being sent the other way (eg. 43 and/or 54). West Coast are bluffing, and they've been called.

There are reports teams are looking at Ison in the first round. Marc McGowan’s mock draft in The Age had him going at 21. I think this is clearly a key part of why we’re doing this particular trade too.

Even with just 4 academy bids, the first round is set to have 22 or 23 selections, and then you've got talk about Geelong and Freo bidding on:

• Ison (CAR)
• Carmichael (SYD)
• King (SYD)
• Sweid (ESS)
• Addinsall (GCS)
• Murray (GCS)
• Williams (WCE)

It's a shakedown so they can boost their draft hands, and there's not a whole lot to be read about it on the surface. On the back of the Essendon trade, Geelong's draft hand might be interesting to us under the right circumstances.

I can't see how Essington would do a deal that got rid of all three of their picks. Even if we were to give 43 back - it's almost certainly not enough to cover Sweid, and they'd probably miss out on El Achkar altogether.

But agree, 21 and 27 alone isn't enough for us.

El Achkar may not draw a bid that incurs points, and they may be willing to go into a 2026 with a 2nd round deficit for the right player ahead of Sweid.

Either way, Sweid isn't locked in as far as the Dons are concerned. But I agree, and giving them 43 and 54 would in turn make a bid match possible up to pick 28 before incurring a deficit, but likely forces us to make a second trade back.

 

[ctwenty1]

No denying they look good, but also feel we are paying a premium which is not ideal and restricting us from bringing in more quality young talent.
Interestingly Gold Coast has two top 10 players to bring in and look likely to obtain them, they look like they managed their draft hand better than us we gave away too many picks in the middle end of the draft which has restricted us.

Tell me how GC are doing better?

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

Looks pretty obvious with the trading out the Silvagni pick that our recruiters really dislike this draft. Time will tell but no one is desperate to even get pick 9 which tells you the consensus is that the draft is rubbish. Happy to get the two players we rate and grab what we can for next year a first would have been good but you can only take what is offered.

 

[ctwenty1]

Looks pretty obvious with the trading out the Silvagni pick that our recruiters really dislike this draft. Time will tell but no one is desperate to even get pick 9 which tells you the consensus is that the draft is rubbish. Happy to get the two players we rate and grab what we can for next year a first would have been good but you can only take what is offered.

More will play out on draft night. If we do the Essendon trade first I suspect there might be a bit more of a run on 11

 

[Jimmae]

Just ran the numbers on this:

Trade 1:
Car - 9, 54, FF3
Ess - 21, 27, F2

Trade 2:
Car - 11
NM - 25, 46, F2

Draft hand: 21, 25, 27, 43, 46 plus two x 2026 round 2 picks (and lose a 2027 round 3 pick)

Depending on where other bids occur, it should cover a bid on Dean as early as 3, and a bid on Ison at 25. Also depends on what other live trades might happen.

Again, the ability to easily trade into next year's second round also shows us that there is scope to trade up if the bid slides to Richmond and they want to parlay something to improve their 3rd pick in the draft.

Hopefully such plans are also in motion.

 

[Bletch]

Again, the ability to easily trade into next year's second round also shows us that there is scope to trade up if the bid slides to Richmond and they want to parlay something to improve their 3rd pick in the draft.

Hopefully such plans are also in motion.

You'd certainly like to think that there are multiple plans in place for the various scenarios that might arise.

 

[Jimmae]

You'd certainly like to think that there are multiple plans in place for the various scenarios that might arise.

Yup, I'm being coy with my wording, but it doesn't serve Richmond or Carlton's interest in such a trade to float that publicly.

Essendon, North, and West Coast are the types of clubs that need to be made to sweat.

 

[HBF]

We used that on Ainsworth. Not sure why tbh. We should've kept will White and saved that pick and the extra 400k in salary.

Ainsworth is a huge upgrade on White. Do you even watch footy?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

If 30 isn't involved 13+34 from WC with a promise not to bid on dean is a way better deal.

Yep, I spent half of yesterday arvo going through all the various permutations and combinations of trade scenarios on Pommy's draft simulator.

We'd absolutely be better off with 13 and 34 for 9 with no bids on Dean from WCE. With bids on Uwland, Paterson and Annable before Dean, it puts us in a pretty good position.

The trade with North could then becomes pick 13 (WCE) for 25 and 2026 2nd.

If we're really bold, we then offer pick 11 to the Tiggs for 38 and 2026 2nd on the proviso they also don't bid on Dean.

Leaves us with 25, 34, 38, 43, 54. Enough points to match a Dean bid at pick 8 or 9, and an Ison bid in the early 20's.

We just take Dean and Ison and disappear into the sunset. Take 2 players in the SSP.

 

[Pablito]

Reckon we pick up Josiah Landy alongside our 2 guys.

 

[Jimmae]

Yep, I spent half of yesterday arvo going through all the various permutations and combinations of trade scenarios on Pommy's draft simulator.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Reckon we pick up Josiah Landy alongside our 2 guys.

Well that's a new name

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

About this proposed trade.

Mhttps://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-agrees-to-trade-picks-9-and-11-to-essendon-and-north-melbourne-ahead-of-expected-west-coast-bid-on-harry-dean/news-story/823ba623ba1987c9236d178dcbcec6a8

West Coast has been a big fan of Dean throughout the year and some recruiters have suggested that they could mount a case for the Murray Bushrangers defender to be the No. 1 pick this year.

Carlton would also retain picks 43 and 54 in this year’s draft, while banking some more draft points in 2026 to help match another early bid on father-son prospect Cody Walker.

'wOn'T GEt a BId iN tHe tOP 15!!!'

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Well that's a new name

I think our recruiters mistook him for Dovaston when watching eastern ranges games

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Reckon we pick up Josiah Landy alongside our 2 guys.

I'd rather Tobyn Murray but happy to leave it to the experts who watch them every week