Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Does it matter? How often is the Top 10 correct or in right order? By this time next year he could be No.1

Dean is a F/S, the best KPD in the draft and we have committed to him. Bonus is we will get him regardless. He will likely be a gun for us and fills a vital need.

I don't care what we pay, he is worth it for so many reasons and it won't stop us getting anything else we really need

No matter what we do people always want more

We were always going to pay for him regardless. But making us pay more for the sake of playing games is where people are getting frustrated as that will disrupt our plans.

We have been linked with players in the draft like Dovaston... and yes, he is a type we really need... no chance now.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It is but we have moved to cover it as best we can. What more could we have done?

Who's complaining about what we could have done?

The frustration is toward WC being dicks...

 

[macky99]

Please think this through....

Because if that was the mindset all father/son and academy players would be free rookie selections for their linked clubs.

The system works on the basis that a club with a father/son or academy player receives a slight points discount and the ability to match any bid they like using some combination of later picks. That club has complete control not over where the bid comes, but on how early a bid they're prepared to match.

If WC bid, it's because a) they'd be happy to walk away with Dean at Pick 3 if Carlton elect not to match, or b) they're confident that a bid at 3 is something Carlton are prepared to match. In either scenario - it's a reflection of Dean's value. Either they like him at 3, or we like him at 3 minus 10% paid for using a few picks in the 20s...

lf West Coast are serious about Dean they would bid at 1 and still get Duursma at 2, the system is open to manipulation and in the case this case they are bidding early ahead of the 5-8 range for Dean with the primary purpose of wiping out Carlton's draft hand effectively meaning we are paying up close to two 1st round picks.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Who is “most people”?

Look at every player rating report done for the entire year

 

[Blue__Balls]

lf West Coast are serious about Dean they would bid at 1 and still get Duursma at 2, the system is open to manipulation and in the case this case they are bidding early ahead of the 5-8 range for Dean with the primary purpose of wiping out Carlton's draft hand effectively meaning we are paying up close to two 1st round picks.

Clubs veeeery rarely bid at 1 on a player linked to another club - just down to the "vibe" of having the "best" kid in the draft, and making sure that player gets the attention and perks that come with that tag.

Also sounds like they rate Uwland ahead of Dean and will call his name at Pick 2.

Is there some strategy involved? Sure. But once again - if they're bidding at 3 it's because they're either perfectly happy to get Dean if we walk away, or they're 100% confident that a bid at Pick 3 is one we're willing to match. In either scenario - that supports Pick 3 as his market value this year.

If they didn't want him, and they didn't think we'd match, then they wouldn't be bidding, simple as that. If either of those are reversed though, then it's a fair bid.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Why not make the B2B premiers pay first?

I would - they have already got close to half a team through father sons and academy players - why give them any more of an advantage.

 

[Pablito]

Of the players Twomey linked us to with our last pick, I like Fred Rodriguez the most. Partially because his name is Fred, but also because I think his footskills are pretty neat and I think we could use more of that on our list. I don't think Fred has the athletic traits to become an elite mid, but I think he could become a pretty handy player on a wing or at half back (basically any position where he has time and space to open the ground up with his kicking).

Agreed. Kid has star quality. Reminds me of Matt Kennedy a bit only better.

 

[Coona Blues]

WCE are entitled to factor in needs when it comes to who they rate where. We've seen what happens with North when all you do is draft mids with high picks.

Their backline talls were struggling when McGovern had to retire. If any club were relying on Ginbey (not his true position), Bazzo (no good) and Sandy Brock (SSP pick after no games at GC in 3 years), then they would be seriously looking at Dean.

It makes perfect sense that they rate him where they do and bid accordingly. That is the system working as it should.

If you are going to quote us the West Coast options to make a point, please ensure you give accurate information.

Their no. 1 KPD is now Harry Edwards who has had an excellent grounding and became much sought after in the Eastern states as an emerging “gun”. He did have some injury interruptions in ‘25 which gave rookie Sandy Brock a run, Brock was squeezed out at the Suns with their quality group of tall defenders and the need for spots to accommodate trades and particularly academy signings. Brock performed very admirably. The other quality KPD they have at their disposal is ex Richmond Tylar Young who the Tigers tried to keep. He is coming off an ACL, but had quickly established himself as best 22 before the injury.

Granted none are superstars, but they have a very workable defensive group post McGovern’s early demise. Commonsense says West Coast’s greatest need is mids and “ball players”. It is doubtful they would select Harry Dean if all academy and F/S players were available in an open pool. Absolutely they would like him, but if they are being honest with “needs” Uwland, Patterson and Annable would all be above him. If they weren’t seduced by Duursma and CDT, fair chance Dyson Sharp, Cumming and Robey would also be ahead.

It is what it is and Dean is a high talent not out of place at the pointy end, the bid is still mischievous and likely designed as an opportunity to get their hands on one of our first rounders first and foremost.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Thanks for the info!

But in true BigFooty spirit, my five minutes of highlight-watching clearly makes me more of an expert than you, even though you’ve been watching him weekly since he was 11!

Also .. I had no idea Fitzroy was in the cannons zone!

Brunswick is cannons. I spent years trying to get the cannons to realise this when i was a brunswick junior girls coach. The mindset WAS cannons is edfl. That mindset has changed

 

[SurreyBlue]

Pick 21 woulda been handy, but I think that was the sticking point for the trade, no what cha mean though

Traded to Hawthorn with pick 10 for 9 plus some. Stupid decision that has hurt us.

 

[Stamos]

Traded to Hawthorn with pick 10 for 9 plus some. Stupid decision that has hurt us.

How?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Harry Dean isn't a top 10 pick because Jasper Chellappah, Dylan Alexander and PMBangers said so. I'll go with the clubs every day of the week over media pundits and Bigfooty posters, at least I know the recruiters are actually watching the games, and have access to advanced analytics, psych profiles and so on. I remember Dylan Alexander saying Dean wasn't a top 10 prospect because he had concerns about his speed (like seriously?) and that Mitch Marsh kicked 5 goals on him, it was just lazy analysis. If you watch the highlights from that game, you'd see that Marsh only kicked 2 goals when marked by Dean and they both came from bullet passes that were impossible to stop.

TBF Dean did say Marsh was his best opponent and was surprised by his athleticism on SEN. He was clearly beaten by him.

To me this is just a funny draft where I would have some nerves over taking anyone really high. Dean to me seems about the safest bet even if he doesn’t have real X factor of some others. A pick at 3 is completely reasonable. I think people are just over rating the value of picks 9 and 11. If you want to know how recruiters rate the players look at the lack of interest in picks 9 and 11

 

[DZ4]

Why not make the B2B premiers pay first?

Because they were smart enough to do a favourable handshake deal with WCE during the trade period, and have set up their hand where “wiping them out” won’t effect the top order too much.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Why not make the B2B premiers pay first?

Because they don't rate Annable as highly as Dean.

 

[Earls Smother]

If you are going to quote us the West Coast options to make a point, please ensure you give accurate information.

Their no. 1 KPD is now Harry Edwards who has had an excellent grounding and became much sought after in the Eastern states as an emerging “gun”. He did have some injury interruptions in ‘25 which gave rookie Sandy Brock a run, Brock was squeezed out at the Suns with their quality group of tall defenders and the need for spots to accommodate trades and particularly academy signings. Brock performed very admirably. The other quality KPD they have at their disposal is ex Richmond Tylar Young who the Tigers tried to keep. He is coming off an ACL, but had quickly established himself as best 22 before the injury.

Granted none are superstars, but they have a very workable defensive group post McGovern’s early demise. Commonsense says West Coast’s greatest need is mids and “ball players”. It is doubtful they would select Harry Dean if all academy and F/S players were available in an open pool. Absolutely they would like him, but if they are being honest with “needs” Uwland, Patterson and Annable would all be above him. If they weren’t seduced by Duursma and CDT, fair chance Dyson Sharp, Cumming and Robey would also be ahead.

It is what it is and Dean is a high talent not out of place at the pointy end, the bid is still mischievous and likely designed as an opportunity to get their hands on one of our first rounders first and foremost.

Fair call and missed him as he was injured at the end of the year.

He is 25 though and has played 55 games across 6 seasons, so how reliable is he? Young is 27 and has played 35 AFL games.

It is perfectly understandable that they would love a young McGovern replacement to develop alongside whoever else they choose to play.

 

[jimsta10]

If a club throws in a "bogus" bid at pick 3 and we have to scramble to match it for Dean, does that bidding club get pushed to the back of the order afterwards?
Can someone help clarify?

 

[DZ4]

It is but we have moved to cover it as best we can. What more could we have done?

Other clubs have navigated this fine over the last 10 years. Could we have pushed Sydney for another 2026 first rather than a pick this year? Could we have sacrificed the 2027 first to set ourselves up better in 2025? Could we have been more friendly in the Chesser deal? Obviously the DVI has changed but the overall strategy remains the same.

Going in with 9+11 for a prospect rated around 6-10 just seems amateur.

 

[Rustica]

I dont get the hysteria

Eagles can bid on whoever they deem is worth Pick 1-2-3

If Dean is bid at 3

Who cares.. we are potentially getting a 250 game player

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Well the Lions team certainly didn't sound shy on Dean's talents on Gettable just then. Basically said they'd have Zeke Uwland and Harry in the pick 1 conversation putting aside their links to Annable.

 

[Rustica]

Who's complaining about what we could have done?

The frustration is toward WC being dicks...

Its a competition

Any way to disrupt your opponents or stuff up their plans

Need more of this going forward

Clubs have been way too nice to each other for faaaaaaar too long

 

[carlton_99]

We had lots of picks to play with during the trade period, yet Austin et al clearly got their forecasts wrong which is hurting us now. We are coming across as desperate for more points in this draft (which may or may not be needed) which makes it challenging in receiving fair value for premium selections. Missing out on a top 20 selection because of the mismanagement is a missed opportunity because we need more quality and have more gaps to fill.

How are we desperate for more points? We can hold all our current picks and still get Dean and Ison at the projected bid of 3 and ~22. These moves allows us to also get something else in the form of a North F2 (and potentially something extra this year if the North deal includes 46).

Where is the mismanagement? It feels like people on here just want to be able to say we have Picks 9 and 11 rather than actually increase what we can bring in this year and next

 

[Stamos]

We had lots of picks to play with during the trade period, yet Austin et al clearly got their forecasts wrong which is hurting us now. We are coming across as desperate for more points in this draft (which may or may not be needed) which makes it challenging in receiving fair value for premium selections. Missing out on a top 20 selection because of the mismanagement is a missed opportunity because we need more quality and have more gaps to fill.

Mismanagement?

 

[Coona Blues]

Fair call and missed him as he was injured at the end of the year.

He is 25 though and has played 55 games across 6 seasons, so how reliable is he? Young is 27 and has played 35 AFL games.

It is perfectly understandable that they would love a young McGovern replacement to develop alongside whoever else they choose to play.

Up until ‘25, Edwards was slow burn. They had that luxury, was behind McGovern, Barras and Hurn previously.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Well the Lions team certainly didn't sound shy on Dean's talents on Gettable just then. Basically said they'd have Zeke Uwland and Harry in the pick 1 conversation putting aside their links to Annable.

They are good at this game, aren't they?

 

[Mop]

Bidding on a player you want to draft, instead of bidding on a player to force a series of trades that benefits your want to shuffle down a few picks and pick up at least another first rounder.

If you wind up with 9 out of this, it will be obvious to all and sundry what transpired.

initially I saw it like this too, that it was a ploy to get your sweet sweet draft picks.

Then I thought about it a bit more. And a bit more.

Our defenders this year were Harry Edwards who despite rapid and drastic improvement from delist prospect is still at best B grade, Sandy Brock who wasn’t even on our list until January and Reuben Ginbey having to play lockdown.

That’s not even depth level talent let alone starting / sole squad level depth. We lost elite defenders in Barrass and McGovern. It is a genuine area of need.