Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

Once the draft starts you can acquire more picks. It's ridiculous.

It’s not ridiculous.
It facilitates trading and allows clubs to get what they want.
There is still a set amount of picks for this year, as well as a basically unlimited amount of picks for the next 2 years.

 

[Blue and Silver]

See you all tonight?

Sorry, washing my hair

 

[Poorman53]

It’s not ridiculous.
It facilitates trading and allows clubs to get what they want.
There is still a set amount of picks for this year, as well as a basically unlimited amount of picks for the next 2 years.

No there isn't a set amount picks this year. A club can trade a 4th round from next year into this year creating another "pick"

 

[Siegfried]

Weiters 196
Dean 193

‘By his own admission, he's somewhat of an in-betweener at 193cm - not quite key position height but not exactly a medium-small.’
Draft me page^

I reckon the cutoff for being a tall defender might have to be 195cm

They key defender debate is interesting. As a generalisation, they are often shorter than key forwards, with exceptions of course. Here's a list of current and recent key defenders (and yes, some don't/didn't always play traditional key back), most of whom have been All Australians...

195cm and under

Weitering - 195
Sicily - 189
Collins - 194
May - 190
Lever 194
Rance - 194
Wilkie -191
Rampie - 188
McCartin - 194
Battle - 193
J McGovern -190
Mal Michael - 190
Tarrant - 193
Scarlett - 194
S Silvagni - 191
Hurley - 193
Lake - 195
Harley - 193

196cm and over

Moore - 202
Fletcher - 198
Taylor - 198
Andrews - 200
Pearce - 201
And others

There are a number of taller key backs currently, so perhaps the trend is changing. But over the last 20-odd years, many of the best key defenders were 190-195cm.

 

[Stamos]

No there isn't a set amount picks this year. A club can trade a 4th round from next year into this year creating another "pick"

It doesn’t create another pick in the total though.
It might create another pick for one club, but the other club is giving it up.

 

[Bluebag13]

I love the draft but it's always a bit underwhelming because we pretty much always know what the top dozen or so selections are going to be

 

[Coona Blues]

They key defender debate is interesting. As a generalisation, they are often shorter than key forwards, with exceptions of course. Here's a list of current and recent key defenders (and yes, some don't/didn't always play traditional key back), most of whom have been All Australians...

195cm and under

Weitering - 195
Sicily - 189
Collins - 194
May - 190
Lever 194
Rance - 194
Wilkie -191
Rampie - 188
McCartin - 194
Battle - 193
J McGovern -190
Mal Michael - 190
Tarrant - 193
Scarlett - 194
S Silvagni - 191
Hurley - 193
Lake - 195
Harley - 193

196cm and over

Moore - 202
Fletcher - 198
Taylor - 198
Andrews - 200
Pearce - 201
And others

There are a number of taller key backs currently, so perhaps the trend is changing. But over the last 20-odd years, many of the best key defenders were 190-195cm.

This is a bit of a fallacy.

Clubs/AFL don’t update stats religiously. Harry McKay is our tallest player at 204cm, but site says 200cm. Reported often that Weitering is now 197/198cm. Many of the players on your list, particularly current ones are taller than reported. It is painful and non professional. There was an interview where Kemp confirmed 195cm after growth, but still reported shorter/draft height.

FWIW draft combine had Dean at 194cm and he is one of the youngest in the draft. Definitely more likely to finish 196cm than not.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Cal Twomey saying there’s a possibility we get a live selection before the Ison bid.

 

[Poorman53]

It doesn’t create another pick in the total though.
It might create another pick for one club, but the other club is giving it up.

Yes it does as it is from a future year, hence an extra pick in this years draft.

Just another inconsistency from the AFL, allow it going in or not at all imo.

In the end may get clubs to actually match with 'better' picks.

 

[marcmurphy3]

They key defender debate is interesting. As a generalisation, they are often shorter than key forwards, with exceptions of course. Here's a list of current and recent key defenders (and yes, some don't/didn't always play traditional key back), most of whom have been All Australians...

195cm and under

Weitering - 195
Sicily - 189
Collins - 194
May - 190
Lever 194
Rance - 194
Wilkie -191
Rampie - 188
McCartin - 194
Battle - 193
J McGovern -190
Mal Michael - 190
Tarrant - 193
Scarlett - 194
S Silvagni - 191
Hurley - 193
Lake - 195
Harley - 193

196cm and over

Moore - 202
Fletcher - 198
Taylor - 198
Andrews - 200
Pearce - 201
And others

There are a number of taller key backs currently, so perhaps the trend is changing. But over the last 20-odd years, many of the best key defenders were 190-195cm.

I think size matters more then whether you are 196cm or 194cm. Dean has the frame to be a KPD. He'll be a big boy. Also has long arms and is barely draftable age so could grow more.

 

[Bluebag13]

Cal Twomey saying there’s a possibility we get a live selection before the Ison bid.

yep but very low chance, it would be fantastic it if happened

 

[carlton_99]

Cal Twomey saying there’s a possibility we get a live selection before the Ison bid.

Question is will it leave us with enough points to then match a bid for Ison a pick or two later. If not we may just have to trade down again

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Yeah, I dont think its the clubs fault. You can't take full advantage of the system without the ability to plan. GC have managed it better but they knew where their guys were going a year in advance.

I would say we have that advantage with Walker but not knowing what the rules are detracts from it.

The positive is we get Dean who's a gun we didn't expect.

That last line is the most pertinent one, we didn’t expect a gun a year out but he’s improved massively with continuity and most likely will continue to improve significantly as his body matures.

Now can the injury gods please leave him the fk alone and allow him to develop

 

[Stamos]

Yes it does as it is from a future year, hence an extra pick in this years draft.

Just another inconsistency from the AFL, allow it going in or not at all imo.

In the end may get clubs to actually match with 'better' picks.

No, it doesn’t.
You can’t draft in more players than you have.
If you trade a future pick in for a current one, somebody has to already have that pick to trade to you. It isn’t created out of thin air.
There are 74 picks in the draft tonight. 54 have points attached (which does replenish slightly). There won’t be 75 players picked over the next 2 nights.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

If we do these swaps, why would WC or Richmond even bother to bid on Dean?
They wouldn't gain anything anymore.

It will be on the night I’d assume, if they don’t bid well then the swaps may change or not happen at all.

Austin is getting the ducks lined up in the likely event they do bid

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Massive marketing opportunity and dollars if he turns out ok, can sell a vast line of beanies and jumpers in red n white

 

[Bluebag13]

Question is will it leave us with enough points to then match a bid for Ison a pick or two later. If not we may just have to trade down again

Just did it on pommy's cal.
and even if a bid came in the very next pick, we would get a compo in the 50s

 

[carlton_99]

Just did it on pommy's cal.
and even if a bid came in the very next pick, we would get a compo in the 50s

Is that with the * and North trades?

 

[Stamos]

Just did it on pommy's cal.
and even if a bid came in the very next pick, we would get a compo in the 50s

At what picks?

 

[Bluebag13]

At what picks?

Used carltons pick 26
Ison bid on 27
Used up 38+48+49
Comp 54
left with 52, 70, 73

This is assuming the trades of Essendon 9+43 for their picks and norths 25+46+F2 and following CT mock draft

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I think size matters more then whether you are 196cm or 194cm. Dean has the frame to be a KPD. He'll be a big boy. Also has long arms and is barely draftable age so could grow more.

And as always we focus on height alone.

Standing reach is a much more relevant measure.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Cal Twomey saying there’s a possibility we get a live selection before the Ison bid.

Im guessing we trade NM F2 back in?

 

[Stamos]

Im guessing we trade NM F2 back in?

I didn’t hear it, but my guess is more that there are a couple of clubs (Cats, Freo) who would bid, and if they don’t, he will ‘slide’ a bit.

Edit: see Bluebag’s calculations above

 

[Bluebag13]

I didn’t hear it, but my guess is more that there are a couple of clubs (Cats, Freo) who would bid, and if they don’t, he will ‘slide’ a bit.

Edit: see Bluebag’s calculations above

Yep thats right. CT was saying and so did Ison's manager, that a bid at the end of the 1st is more likely, but there is some chance that he slips to the start of the 2nd, if those teams you mentioned just take the player they want and they are available rather than bidding on Ison. Impression I got was this was pretty low chance of happening though

 

[Soapy V]

Cal Twomey saying there’s a possibility we get a live selection before the Ison bid.

That’s the hope