Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[viking12]

I get the argument about Gold Coast, but I'm a bit more sympathetic. They've toiled up there for over a decade now, and whatever talent they developed has walked out the door at the first opportunity. I find Richmond's complaints to be especially ironic given they picked up Tom Lynch when he was captain of the club.

So now against all odds they have managed to put together a good crop of local youngsters. They've grown bananas in the desert. And after feasting off Suns players for a decade, now the other clubs are jealous? Of a club that only made finals for the first time this year?

The issue is with the system, not the Suns. Even then you have to credit them with developing four top 20 talents, a couple of whom they basically poached from other sports.

agree

not understanding the complaining here, where all of a sudden some of these academy players coming through are top 10 players in an open draft.

The Suns have been planning this draft since 2023.

There are question marks on whether West Coast actually rated Dean as top 3 or to despise Carlton and force us to pay a little bit more but both them and Tigers called on the Suns and Lions to pay up, where Uwland, Patterson and Annable are top 10 players in an open draft.

 

[Pinnell]

Hard to see Dogs taking Ludowyke given their batch of young key forwards, after losing Charlie is the most obvious selection for us. Could be a risk that Dogs trade to another club looking to bolster KPF like North.

If not Archie, Hibbins -Heargraves upside looks exciting and in a position of need.

NHH kicked 20 goals as an U14 in an U17 game. Was jumping on heads. WE are wanting a "small forward" but I prefer the Brisbane forward model of players who can find the goals but are aerial threats and can get up and down the ground - he could play wing too.. kicked 5 in a game this year when was playing as a mid. X factor

Edit : Probably wont matter. Dogs will take him. They had him tour the facilities last week

 

[Revenant1995]

I also think NM won't bid, but WB could... is Ison someone who fits a list need for the Dogs, or who else would be more likely...?

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Once again they had a throw at the stumps with a couplevl of academy kids but rated Lindsay and thought that the Hawks would take him. They paid for that privilege but Lindsay is a good player.

Correct, but if they rated a couple of GC boys they should have bid on a GC boy at 3 along with 2 with Uwland and then Dean.
Probably would have got one of the GC boys if they did.

They clearly rated Dean but were never going to get him and he was never getting past Richmond anyway, when they sit down and do a review of their draft performance I reckon they’ll be a bit upset with themselves

 

[Stamos]

No block out, just continue to raise the DVI for higher placed teams only.
Eventually we'll reach a correct level where the lower placed teams can crawl their way up the ladder faster.

It shouldn't be different levels.
If the DVI is set correctly, it solves all the problems.

Gold Coast got a lot last night, but they gave up a huge amount over the last 2 years to be able to afford it all.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Flanders and Ainsworth?? The facts are strong clubs are getting stronger. To get that level of talent in one off season shows the frustration when we have used most of our draft capital on one player.

Flanders got them pick 7.
Ainsworth got them pick 29.

Budarick + 70 got them pick 37.

Pick 7 + 8 + 37 + F1 + F2 got them Trac + 24 + 28

Last year, they gave up Lukosius + Atkins + pick 13 + pick 29 + pick 50
for
Noble + pick 39 + Port & Pies 1st pick for this year.

All up they lost:

Port's 1st
Pies 1st
Saints 1st
Their 1st
Their F1
Pick 29
Pick 37

So let's not pretend they got Trac + 4 top 20 picks this year for peanuts...

As for us, yes we might have lost TDK for less than what we might've got in a trade. But we got more than what we would've got for Jack, that's for sure.

Then look at everything we've brought in, we actually did something similar to GC with pick 9 - traded it for a bunch of picks that net us more points...

We now have more than enough to match a bid on Ison, if he isn't bid on before our next pick, we get another top 30 player in this year's draft, plus we have North's F2 as well.

What exactly would you have preferred here?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

I get the argument about Gold Coast, but I'm a bit more sympathetic. They've toiled up there for over a decade now, and whatever talent they developed has walked out the door at the first opportunity. I find Richmond's complaints to be especially ironic given they picked up Tom Lynch when he was captain of the club.

So now against all odds they have managed to put together a good crop of local youngsters. They've grown bananas in the desert. And after feasting off Suns players for a decade, now the other clubs are jealous? Of a club that only made finals for the first time this year?

The issue is with the system, not the Suns. Even then you have to credit them with developing four top 20 talents, a couple of whom they basically poached from other sports.

Spot on, the academys work.. The thought of 5 players in the 1st round coming from QLD a decade ago would have been laughable.. but it is a credit to the work the AFL and the Suns and Lions have done in creating these academies which has attracted and developed high end talent.

I think it will be interesting to reflect in 10 years time as to if these top drafted academy players have just developed earlier and faster because of being in an elite environment from an early age and if this will plateau out once the kids from the other states who haven't been in these academies enter an AFL environment.

 

[ctwenty1]

Gold Coast walk away with 4 top 20 picks plus Petracca this off season.

Legacy of a lot of afl assistance

 

[Stamos]

Pick 7 + 8 + 37 + F1 + F2 got them Trac + 24 + 28

Good post, slight correction.

They gave up a 27 F3 rather than F2, but also got a 26 F2 as well as 24 + 28.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Hey folks did wet toast bid on any other players early or just Harry? I missed the draft.

Uwland at Pick 2 and then a further couple of GC boys in the middle of the first round.

 

[marcmurphy3]

They had to pay a lot to get their players this year though.

Completely different to 2023.

Thats true. They started this year with 3 first rounders which helped massively. People forget because they used 2nd rounders to match the bids but they traded 1sts to get those 2nds. That said, they were also able to get Petracca. So its still a bit off.

In either case, the AFL won't like the headline and outrage caused by situations such as this amongst casual fans. And they are spineless so I expect them to react.

 

[Soapy V]

Flanders got them pick 7.
Ainsworth got them pick 29.

Budarick + 70 got them pick 37.

Pick 7 + 8 + 37 + F1 + F2 got them Trac + 24 + 28

Last year, they gave up Lukosius + Atkins + pick 13 + pick 29 + pick 50
for
Noble + pick 39 + Port & Pies 1st pick for this year.

All up they lost:

Port's 1st
Pies 1st
Saints 1st
Their 1st
Their F1
Pick 29
Pick 37

So let's not pretend they got Trac + 4 top 20 picks this year for peanuts...

As for us, yes we might have lost TDK for less than what we might've got in a trade. But we got more than what we would've got for Jack, that's for sure.

Then look at everything we've brought in, we actually did something similar to GC with pick 9 - traded it for a bunch of picks that net us more points...

We now have more than enough to match a bid on Ison, if he isn't bid on before our next pick, we get another top 30 player in this year's draft, plus we have North's F2 as well.

What exactly would you have preferred here?

Still a massive advantage to have access to these players first. If they didn't most would have been snapped up by other clubs

What is does is allows them to lose good players but then keep topping up with real quality. GWS has done this for years

It's not a guarantee of success but it's a definite advantage

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Thats true. They started this year with 3 first rounders which helped massively. People forget because they used 2nd rounders to match the bids but they traded 1sts to get those 2nds. That said, they were also able to get Petracca. So its still a bit off.

In either case, the AFL won't like the headline and outrage caused by situations such as this amongst casual fans. And they are spineless so I expect them to react.

No the AFL will spin this as a positive for the game in QLD, which it is... although the real story is probably the decline in WA with only 1 player drafted in the 1st round.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Still a massive advantage to have access to these players first. If they didn't most would have been snapped up by other clubs

What is does is allows them to lose good players but then keep topping up with real quality. GWS has done this for years

It's not a guarantee of success but it's a definite advantage

100% it's an advantage they have.

So it's not really realistic to compare our strategy to theirs when they have said advantage is it?

Still, they did have to cough up for it as I pointed out...

 

[SurreyBlue]

The question. I would like to know, how many of these Qld kids being have this state all their lives and not ‘moved’ into their zones over the past 12/24 months for such drafts? Just a question if anyone has info, which I doubt!!

 

[DZ4]

So in Summary we have

Dean, Ison another pick (Ludowyke/Greeves?) and a F2

if we stayed with 9 & 11 we would have had Sharp & Dovaston (based on who was picked at those)

I see it as a big win especially around needs and our List

With an academy and father son it was always going to be a win with the point system still slightly weighted towards lower picks and the discount.

The question is whether it was the best we could do. Looking at the trades on the night and strategies used in previous years I’m not sure.

If we get 3 best 22 players then all will be forgotten.

 

[Opium]

Flanders got them pick 7.
Ainsworth got them pick 29.

Budarick + 70 got them pick 37.

Pick 7 + 8 + 37 + F1 + F2 got them Trac + 24 + 28

Last year, they gave up Lukosius + Atkins + pick 13 + pick 29 + pick 50
for
Noble + pick 39 + Port & Pies 1st pick for this year.

All up they lost:

Port's 1st
Pies 1st
Saints 1st
Their 1st
Their F1
Pick 29
Pick 37

So let's not pretend they got Trac + 4 top 20 picks this year for peanuts...

As for us, yes we might have lost TDK for less than what we might've got in a trade. But we got more than what we would've got for Jack, that's for sure.

Then look at everything we've brought in, we actually did something similar to GC with pick 9 - traded it for a bunch of picks that net us more points...

We now have more than enough to match a bid on Ison, if he isn't bid on before our next pick, we get another top 30 player in this year's draft, plus we have North's F2 as well.

What exactly would you have preferred here?

Atkins and Budarick are hardly great loses.
Lukocoius hasn't achieved great heights relieving their salary cap.

My point is they have bought in 4 first round draft picks whilst also bringing in Rioli and Noble the year prior. Plus they brought in a champion like Petracca while losing very little in terms of quality players.

Don't think our list managers could of done much more once they realised a bid was coming for Dean Inside the top 3. They were effectively placed in a corner.

 

[tarczonandjane]

The academies are a tough one. I was talking to someone yesterday whose son is in the Lions academy at under 15 level. There are 60 kids in the program. I’ve seen this guy’s son play. The kid is a gun. He’s bracketed in the 16-30 group out of the 60 boys in the pool. There is some serious talent coming through if there are 15 kids better than him.

But if you are considering the overall health of AFL football, what do you do about it? Take the academies away from the self interest of the Lions and the Suns and Queensland football regresses. And it is needed as a football factory, with all of WA, SA, TAS, and even Victoria having lulls in production over the past decade. I’m just not sure what the solution is.

 

[Bluebag13]

Taking all the emotion out if it, I still don't understand what West Coast did today with their bidding. If their aim was to get Beau Addinsall off the Gold Coast why didn't they bid on Dylan Patterson? Thats around 400-500 points that GC didn't have to find. Why did they bid on Dean? It resulted in our first two picks getting used by North and Essendon instead of being absorbed into a bid, which in turn meant their third pick lost about 100 points in value. With back to back bids that around 200 points in value that Gold Coast didn't have to match

They must be really stupid. It would explain their list management decisions lately.

Consipracy theory in coming:
AFL up'd WC compensation for Allen to pick 2, and said you need to bid on certain FS/NGA so that it looks like our changes are working

 

[SurreyBlue]

it’s not what we gained but what we lost. Outside of three best 18, we also traded away nearly all our second rounders (Charlie trade and Hawthorn pick swap). That is where I believe we could have done better.

 

[tarczonandjane]

The question. I would like to know, how many of these Qld kids being have this state all their lives and not ‘moved’ into their zones over the past 12/24 months for such drafts? Just a question if anyone has info, which I doubt!!

I certainly don’t have an answer to your question Surrey. But I can tell you that junior footy in southeast Queensland is absolutely booming. Clubs have record numbers of players and teams. Trying to get to training on a Tuesday and Thursday night at my daughters’ local club is a matter of parking several streets away.

 

[Blue and Silver]

No the AFL will spin this as a positive for the game in QLD, which it is... although the real story is probably the decline in WA with only 1 player drafted in the 1st round.

The game is still the no.1 thing over here, WAFL gets turnout and you lots of WCE and Freo fans.

Makes you wonder if the development pathways need to be worked on? My kids are too young, and have shown no interest in footy so I have no idea about the junior system

 

[Soapy V]

With an academy and father son it was always going to be a win with the point system still slightly weighted towards lower picks and the discount.

The question is whether it was the best we could do. Looking at the trades on the night and strategies used in previous years I’m not sure.

If we get 3 best 22 players then all will be forgotten.

I'm very happy with it and don't see how we could have done better. IMO it's been an impressive off season by Wright & Co. But that's me

 

[Coops93]

Flanders got them pick 7.
Ainsworth got them pick 29.

Budarick + 70 got them pick 37.

Pick 7 + 8 + 37 + F1 + F2 got them Trac + 24 + 28

Last year, they gave up Lukosius + Atkins + pick 13 + pick 29 + pick 50
for
Noble + pick 39 + Port & Pies 1st pick for this year.

All up they lost:

Port's 1st
Pies 1st
Saints 1st
Their 1st
Their F1
Pick 29
Pick 37

So let's not pretend they got Trac + 4 top 20 picks this year for peanuts...

As for us, yes we might have lost TDK for less than what we might've got in a trade. But we got more than what we would've got for Jack, that's for sure.

Then look at everything we've brought in, we actually did something similar to GC with pick 9 - traded it for a bunch of picks that net us more points...

We now have more than enough to match a bid on Ison, if he isn't bid on before our next pick, we get another top 30 player in this year's draft, plus we have North's F2 as well.

What exactly would you have preferred here?

Good summary. People don't see that, they only see the outcome on draft day and assume it's unfair advantage thinking they got all these picks for peanuts. It takes a lot of LM to get there.

By the time we match a bid for Cody next year, the summary of our moves to secure that will be a list, but other clubs fans will say it was gifted.

 

[Soapy V]

The question. I would like to know, how many of these Qld kids being have this state all their lives and not ‘moved’ into their zones over the past 12/24 months for such drafts? Just a question if anyone has info, which I doubt!!

I coached Qld Under 17/18s between 1999-2003. When I started there were around 50% from interstate. Names like Reiwoldt

However, I remember Michael Osbourne actually moving to Melbourne for more "football" opportunities

When the AFL fully took over AFLQ there was a concerted effort from Auskick up to bring the game to locals. The upturn has been massive. SE Qld has seen a boom and there are now locals playing in mens and womens. Many of the Academy players are now true locals and have grown up there

There will always be "Southerners" in the mix because many move for the warmth etc. As for players moving for the draft it's rare now.