List Mgmt. 2025 List Management discussion - part 2

[BrutThough]

Suppose his agency doesn’t want it too look like his player is bailing for a 4 year deal when the reality is that it’s 3 and probably lesser coin than what he is earning now and a 4th year is highly dependent on his body and form?

All I can think of really.

It just kinda looks like that Eagles set the narrative and they tried to protect their players image.

Eagles definitely getting on the front foot. Makes it seem like he was given their blessing to look around so it they over state the contract he was offered, they can now demand more for a player they've said can leave.

 

[Yawkey way]

This doesn’t make sense

We’d be getting TDK Aleer Ryan for the total cost of maybe 2 second round picks. We’re already getting a second round pick for free in Fincher this year so the net loss for those 3 players will literally be ~second round pick

We keep all our first rounders. This is not “throwing the script out” or “going for broke”. It’s just smart recruiting and being opportunistic

And even if it was - how do you know this wasn't part of the plan? 2027 was always gonna be the end of the first phase of our rebuild with Ross/Steele/Wilkie/Sinc/etc. all OOC by then so going for success before then isn't that wild

One probably two drafts short as stated yourself 2027.

Aleer isn’t a need and is going to cost a second and $750 over 4 years that’s certainly not free.

TDK isn’t about the player or trade cost obviously it’s about the money. We’re yet to execute the second part which is Marshall out. TDK and Aleer adds up without really moving the needle, yes we get younger but at what cost down the track.

Fincher wasn’t predicted and is a bonus.

As I said I’m not against going all in but if we want to make a splash then get the mid we’re desperate for. Get the key defender not a project player who plays where exactly ?.

We’re all dancing because we kept our own player on huge coin. I’m relived that’s for sure but I’m keeping the champagne on ice.

 

[stavro#4]

Why are we only offering windy 2 years ffs?

2nd most consistent young player this year, has improved on his kicking for the most part.

Another bit of evidence to question whether St Kilda "knows what they are doing".


Are we trying to break an AFL record for having the highest number of overpaid guys on one team?

Or the highest percentage of a salary cap taken up by new signings? TDK, Aleer and Ryan, say $3.0 - $3.5mil between them?

I get that we have banked cap for 2026 and 2027, but these deals go into 2028, 2029, and in some cases longer.

Meanwhile we offer Windy 2 years.

Sorry for being a wet blanket but my enthusiasm about Nas is souring by the hour.

We won't maximise his potential long-term, and leverage his elite ability into building a successful team around him if we don't make wise decisions around list management and salary cap.

2 year offer from us is just strange. Surely we'd be looking at locking one of our best young prospects up long term.

I'd be surprised if he goes, I'm sure we will work it out, but it just makes sense to be offering him a longer term deal.

If we don’t think Windy is worth the numbers windy/agent think he is worth. A 2 year deal that take you to a CBA increase and most of our best players OoC puts him in the frame to fight for more money at that point.

 

[PJays]

Point 3. We are super young.. bringing in two guys above the age of 25 isn’t a bad thing. We don’t wanna go much younger.

Not true.

We do have plenty of young guys, but also more older guys than average (Sinclair, Wood, Hill, Webster, Marshall, Wilkie, Macrae, Steele, Jones, Howard, Butler etc).

We have very few in-between.

Adding Ryan means there's yet another who will be declining in 2-3 years time.

In some ways it makes sense because if we don't achieve success in the next 2-3 years those guys will be leaving and it'll become harder to climb the ladder.

It's risky in, if we don't get anywhere near it in 2026 and 2027, Nas might realise it's not going to happen.

St Kilda is going all in, trying to win a flag in 2026 or 2027.

It's not the strategy I'd go for.

But let's see how things go. Strap yourselves in.

 

[stavro#4]

Eagles definitely getting on the front foot. Makes it seem like he was given their blessing to look around so it they over state the contract he was offered, they can now demand more for a player they've said can leave.

I’d agree.

Control the narrative.

 

[gringo2011]

Yes our preseason will be ultra-competitive.

Players coming back from injury (add Pou to this as he looks lost at present), new blood (3 or maybe 4 ready to play experienced players as well as draftees), more of our recent draftees being just that bit stronger, fitter, mature and more developed.

Keeler's body is showing real signs of change at present. A massive preseason of strength work could see him ready to bloom.

We have entered Stage 2 of of our List Rebuild where while youth remains important that very young draftees will not be quite as high a priority as they have been (Except I assume our first pick which will be say 10-15 after matches/compo picks). So our recent young draftees will be competing with more ready to go players too.

Exactly, we are at the honing point rather than bulk numbers.

 

[stavro#4]

Not true.

We do have plenty of young guys, but also more older guys than average (Sinclair, Wood, Hill, Webster, Marshall, Wilkie, Macrae, Steele, Jones, Howard, Butler etc).

We have very few in-between.

Adding Ryan means there's yet another who will be declining in 2-3 years time.

In some ways it makes sense because if we don't achieve success in the next 2-3 years those guys will be leaving and it'll become harder to climb the ladder.

It's risky in, if we don't get anywhere near it in 2026 and 2027, Nas might realise it's not going to happen.

St Kilda is going all in, trying to win a flag in 2026 or 2027.

It's not the strategy I'd go for.

But let's see how things go. Strap yourselves in.

The plan is clearly let’s get good tomorrow now that Nas is here and we have been told keeping him is linked to our success now.

We have a plethora of kids. Kids are great. Kids lack consistency. Bringing in a few older bodies to fill gaps also gives the side consistency and a level for the kids to reach to win a spot.

 

[jwikked]

2 points I think are worth mentioning.

1. St Kilda is gambling on huge cap increases in the next CBA from 2028 onwards. If we can sufficiently front-load and utilise carry-forward in 2026 and 2027, big cap increases from 2028 could significantly lessen the oncoming cap squeeze. Whether that's right and that happens, time will tell.

2. St Kilda is throwing everything into a premiership push, starting next year. TDK is 26. Ryan is 29 in October. These are moves you make if you're expecting immediate contention. Strap yourselves in.

When is the tv rights deal up? I suspect the next one will be worth much less money, given they (likely) wont have Foxtel coming to the table for the next one.

Can’t see Stan(channel 9) paying that sort of money either.

Can see the caps going backwards in the next 10 years

 

[gringo2011]

I'm happy for Marshall to be traded if he wants as long as we get a good deal. SDK would be juicy as.

I’d like to give Ryan Byrnes for Zac Butters. Not sure that they’ll jump at a young potential star for a couple of years worth of ruck relief.

 

[SainterinSydney]

Not true.

We do have plenty of young guys, but also more older guys than average (Sinclair, Wood, Hill, Webster, Marshall, Wilkie, Macrae, Steele, Jones, Howard, Butler etc).

We have very few in-between.

Adding Ryan means there's yet another who will be declining in 2-3 years time.

In some ways it makes sense because if we don't achieve success in the next 2-3 years those guys will be leaving and it'll become harder to climb the ladder.

It's risky in, if we don't get anywhere near it in 2026 and 2027, Nas might realise it's not going to happen.

St Kilda is going all in, trying to win a flag in 2026 or 2027.

It's not the strategy I'd go for.

But let's see how things go. Strap yourselves in.

I think if we are top 4 (or approaching it) in 2027, Nas isn't going to bail. We could even be in a position of making finals and hopefully winning a final next year. I think it is more if we are just cruising in the middle bottom 8 that Nas may think of greener pastures.

I also think it is healthy to put abit of pressure on the team and coaches to push for the ultimate prize. Pressure was put on NASA by JFK to get to the moon by the end of the 60s and it happened in 1969 against all odds.

 

[Yawkey way]

The rebuttals have mainly been about Wilkie who was the main focus of those stories.

Marshall has more been journos thinking that if TDK comes in that Marshal would leave as part of an AFL Ruck Merry Go Round, and that yes other Clubs are interested in him.


The others, including Marshall, was more RTB stating that no contracted player would be let go unless it was of advantage to St Kilda to do so.

Windy is not contracted though. Other clubs are interested, and he would like more money. My guess is that with Nas staying that he would be now very unlikely to go.

It wasn’t just journos but every club has players who want out that’s the game.

We have 9 wins, some stars, some great kids, obviously we need to do something to bridge the gap. I’d be keeping something back, I have a feeling some very good players will be available come trade week.

 

[gringo2011]

Gettable
- Windhager. North has a 5 year deal infront of him. 2 year offer from the Saints, Nas staying helps

- TDK. Now an 8 year offer. Coming to the saints will likely let Carlton know the is time next week. Wanted to know Nas’s decisions

- Aleer & Ryan. Twomey thinks we are getting both.

Why wouldn’t we offer him longer?

 

[SainterinSydney]

Why wouldn’t we offer him longer?

Does Windy really want to go to Norf and compete with their 17 first round midfielders?

 

[PJays]

The fact you have mentioned Max Heath as being part of St Kilda's future shows you haven't really been taking much notice of what's going on or Heath's performances.

Heath is an honest trier but he doesn't have the agility or endurance to be an AFL ruckman. He also doesn't have the forward craft or positional skills to be a forward/ruck. There is a reason he wasn't picked until now. The only way he stays on the list is if Marshall and probably Keeler goes - and can't see both leaving.

Dodson looks promising but could be years away from being a solid AFL ruckman - have high hopes for him.

If that's our ruck succession plan, and it in all likelihood needs no tinkering, then I'm pretty glad you aren't in charge of list management.

How many ex Saints rucks have gone on to win flags or play grand finals for other teams?

McEvoy, Stanley, Hickey in recent times.

How many rucks change teams every year - several.

So there's two options here:

1. Back Marshall in for the next 2-3 years and hope either Dodson, Heath or Keeler become a solid future ruck. With someone like Boyd/Tom Campbell/veteran fringe type on the list for extra insurance. And if none of the young ones work out, back-up plan is looking into trades or free agency for a future ruck at a decent price (that's how we got Hickey in the first place).

2. Let Marshall go for peanuts and instead give a ruckman a $14 million contract- when we've already got multiple big contracts on the books (Nas, King) and despite history proving you don't need a good ruck to win a flag. They don't move the needle as much as other positions on the ground.

It's a no-brainer.

 

[_Maximus_12]

Another bit of evidence to question whether St Kilda "knows what they are doing".


Are we trying to break an AFL record for having the highest number of overpaid guys on one team?

Or the highest percentage of a salary cap taken up by new signings? TDK, Aleer and Ryan, say $3.0 - $3.5mil between them?

I get that we have banked cap for 2026 and 2027, but these deals go into 2028, 2029, and in some cases longer.

Meanwhile we offer Windy 2 years.

Sorry for being a wet blanket but my enthusiasm about Nas is souring by the hour.

We won't maximise his potential long-term, and leverage his elite ability into building a successful team around him if we don't make wise decisions around list management and salary cap.

Do us a favour and just stfu

 

[phantom13]

Certainly not the people that were wrong!! I said weeks ago to relax, none of the signals were indicating negotiation with another club, but all the bedwetters were demanding that our list management team be publicly lynched as abject failures…..
I’m yet to see any apologies from said bedwetters who lapped up media click bait as gospel……

Well im sure youd call me a bed wetter but i never said anything about that. I didnt see too many others either.

Certainly people were theorizing that if we lost Nas it should be reviewed in full but equally people adamant we was staying were also adamant we wouldnt and shouldnt give him 2m for 2 years.

In the end i cgaf, he stayed, im not gonna point out who got what wrong, i dont care, im just happy we got our man.

 

[phantom13]

He’s gone the Sam Newman route of strident chest beating with no nuance. Doesn’t mean he didn’t do great things for the club but he’s a lot.

Sure, so did Stan Alves, im not advocating for his RWNJ ass to be back in a chair somewhere.

We can appreciate what he did whilst also not wanting him back.

 

[thekizzler]

I think if we are top 4 (or approaching it) in 2027, Nas isn't going to bail. We could even be in a position of making finals and hopefully winning a final next year. I think it is more if we are just cruising in the middle bottom 8 that Nas may think of greener pastures.

I also think it is healthy to put abit of pressure on the team and coaches to push for the ultimate prize. Pressure was put on NASA by JFK to get to the moon by the end of the 60s and it happened in 1969 against all odds.

Careful mate, a lot of these negative campaigners will also think the moon landing didn't happen

 

[SaintsFooty1107]

No offence to Windy great player but any club willing to pay 800k can have him. But seriously does he really think he gets ahead of sheezel , LDU Wardlaw and Powell. McKerchaer and FOS i imagine they envision as long term on ballers in the future also. Outside of the money if the desire is on bal minutes why wouldnt u stay at the saints where its a group of yourself, nas , garica, pou with Steele and Macrae

 

[SaintsofSteel]

If we don’t think Windy is worth the numbers windy/agent think he is worth. A 2 year deal that take you to a CBA increase and most of our best players OoC puts him in the frame to fight for more money at that point.

How much we were offerring that spud from North Melbourne (LDU), WIndy is worth every $$$ as much as he was offerred. We made the same mistake in NWM negotiations, if we had of offerred him an attractive offer early days he might have taken it then and there. The longer it went on the the more his form grew and the more of a sniff the Adelaide clubs thought they had. Hence his price escalated to record margins.

Pay Windy his worth and stop trying to shaft the players who we should be loyal to.

When we have a top 4 list and a real chance of winning a flag thats when we start asking players to take less, until then we should pay top dollar to keep our better players. If anyone thinks Windy is not one of our more important players they will be proven very wrong if he leaves.

 

[nikkig98]

I think if we are top 4 (or approaching it) in 2027, Nas isn't going to bail. We could even be in a position of making finals and hopefully winning a final next year. I think it is more if we are just cruising in the middle bottom 8 that Nas may think of greener pastures.

I also think it is healthy to put abit of pressure on the team and coaches to push for the ultimate prize. Pressure was put on NASA by JFK to get to the moon by the end of the 60s and it happened in 1969 against all odds.

One small step for Nas, One Giant leap for Saintkind

 

[thekizzler]

Why wouldn’t we offer him longer?

Maybe he only wants a two-year deal to take him to when Tasmania comes in?

And the dispute is over money being paid across two years.

I don't know if this is the case but it's plausible.

If I was advising Windy, I would sign until then because if I improve, I could get 150k-200k above my value when Tassie comes in.

Just because North is waving five years in his face, doesn't mean that's what he wants.

 

[akaifu]

One probably two drafts short as stated yourself 2027.

Aleer isn’t a need and is going to cost a second and $750 over 4 years that’s certainly not free.

TDK isn’t about the player or trade cost obviously it’s about the money. We’re yet to execute the second part which is Marshall out. TDK and Aleer adds up without really moving the needle, yes we get younger but at what cost down the track.

Fincher wasn’t predicted and is a bonus.

As I said I’m not against going all in but if we want to make a splash then get the mid we’re desperate for. Get the key defender not a project player who plays where exactly ?.

We’re all dancing because we kept our own player on huge coin. I’m relived that’s for sure but I’m keeping the champagne on ice.

A full back is a need - and Aleer fits that bill. Ive watched every single one of his games this year. I agree to the extent that I think there may be better value options (like my boy Butts) but Aleer certainly has the upside to become a very good player and maybe he performs better in our defensive system - we don't know

TDK's money is all about fulfilling the 95% minimum cap - if we don't spend it then we lose it. Realistically he's probably around 1.4m/year if you factor in that cost. We've already front-loaded all our star players so there's no argument for investing in our own unless you want to suggest role players like Windy. TDK will be AT LEAST a top 5 ruckman in the comp - more likely top 2-3 - with these new incoming ruck rules

What mid? I agree that we should be spending our money on a mid but who on the market wants to come to us? It's a pipe dream. The best mid we could've possibly signed this off-season was Nas - and that's done.

Also, now that NWM is a top 5 player in the competition as a mid and Garcia is looking very promising, I think this need for an elite mid is starting to fade. Steele is already getting just ~30% CBAs and Macrae has been pushed into the Clark role of being the fourth mid. If Pou comes on next year, then we could have Steele & Macrae both on the periphery of our midfield. Then you add on the likes of Boxshall/Travaglia/Hall/top 15 pick/Fincher there's a lot of quality developing

 

[SainterinSydney]

Do us a favour and just stfu

 

[Dard Ball Get]

Does Windy really want to go to Norf and compete with their 17 first round midfielders?

Makes no sense from his perspective.
Norf is a graveyard for hopes and dreams. Imagine missing a finals tilt with your mates for a 10-15% pay increase and 5 wins a season lol