List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[thekizzler]

I think Ryan is a front and centre roving upgrade on Butler. Butler has gotten most of his recent goals by running forward of the ball from memory. I can’t recall him doing a lot on tight spaces at the foot of the taller forwards. I think Ryan is more dangerous in this situation (like Higgo) and much better overhead. So on that basis, I think it’s an upgrade.

People will probably tell me I am wrong and perhaps I am. I haven’t seen a lot of WCE This season, admittedly.

Ryan can also go through the centre bounce as well.

I would say the skill that Butler is definitely better in would be pressure but I would expect Ryan to lift in this area playing for a serious club and not a rabble.

The problem with Butler is that while his pressure is excellent, he just doesn't add much else. Brad Close is an example of a valuable pressure forward who doesn't add too many goals. But he is so valuable with setting up goals and his work in contested ground ball situations.

Butler makes too many errors with ball in hand. In two minds too often.

I'm not sure any of the above deficiencies are going to change too much at this stage of his career.

 

[PJays]

But regardless of how he rubs you up, he will impact the scoreboard for us next year if he stays on the park.

For those of us who aren't amazed by highlight packages but instead focus on hard data, Ryan doesn't appear to offer a lot.

Over the past 4 years.

Ryan- 56 games, 58 goals, 13 coaches votes.

Butler- 65 games, 72 goals, 12 coaches votes

Obviously they're different players with different strengths. And obviously Butler's had injuries the last couple years.

But this raw comparison suggest Ryan hasn't been setting the world on fire.

People around here talk like Butler's completely expendable, while Ryan's this exciting signing.

 

[AFaiL]

St Kilda will almost certainly not have the funds to get a top free agent in 2 years if we're top 4 (assuming Nas re-signs) now that we've locked in this massive TDK contract. Because being top 4 would mean we've succeeded- and many of our players are playing well and need new contracts.

Nas and TDK would be among the highest paid players in the comp in 2028. You can't have a 3rd guy also being one of the highest paid!

Hall and Wilkie will need new deals.

Pou- if he has a break-out year in 2026 will demand a big contract from 2027.

St Kilda has gone all-in right now. Chips on the table. We've made our choice and it was TDK. The ship has probably sailed looking for other big FAs for the foreseeable future.

Have a look at the free agency class over the new couple years... nothing to get too excited over, plus compromised drafts

 

[Aussieviking1]

That is true. But Butler did not spend too much time in the team. Not sure what Ryan’s pressure is like but he will offer us more in terms of midfield rotation, creativity and goals. Butler spent a lot of time missing when in the game.

Fifferent kind of pressure too I think. He will provide some defensive pressure but the forward presence and pressure he provides is more so than Butlers.

 

[Train12]

I haven’t seen much of Flanders. What type of player would be potentially be getting ?

Good user of the ball ? Quick?

Cornes wasn’t that glowing of him few days ago - saying words to the effect “not sure if his style stands up in today’s game” - think he was eluding to speed, not a long kick etc.

 

[Joffaboy]

I think Ryan is a front and centre roving upgrade on Butler. Butler has gotten most of his recent goals by running forward of the ball from memory. I can’t recall him doing a lot on tight spaces at the foot of the taller forwards. I think Ryan is more dangerous in this situation (like Higgo) and much better overhead. So on that basis, I think it’s an upgrade.

People will probably tell me I am wrong and perhaps I am. I haven’t seen a lot of WCE This season, admittedly.

Can Ryan defend? One of Butlers big strengths is his forward defensive game. All very well to fly for species marks, but if the ball.is rebounded out with no pressure, it makes the ground very difficult to defend.

 

[beside the seaside]

34 goals 19 behinds from 33 games as an exclusive forward in 2023/24 as a 19/20 year old.

This year he has played down back for the majority of it.

I think other supporter bases would be very bullish if they had that prospect on their list.

Maybe he makes it but he just looks a bit lost as a forward and his opponent often destroys us. Maybe he can take some learnings from the year in defence. I reckon he looks more a back than a forward but will be happy to be proven wrong.

 

[thekizzler]

For those of us who aren't amazed by highlight packages but instead focus on hard data, Ryan doesn't appear to offer a lot.

Over the past 4 years.

Ryan- 56 games, 58 goals, 13 coaches votes.

Butler- 65 games, 72 goals, 12 coaches votes

Obviously they're different players with different strengths. And obviously Butler's had injuries the last couple years.

But this raw comparison suggest Ryan hasn't been setting the world on fire.

People around here talk like Butler's completely expendable, while Ryan's this exciting signing.

Brad Close has kicked less goals than both per game but has been the more impactful player in a good system.

The raw comparison is not a good example of anything.

Suits your narrative though.

But you not understanding why Ryan offers more than Butler is definitely on brand.

It's obvious you don't watch much footy.

 

[The Punter]

Can Ryan defend? One of Butlers big strengths is his forward defensive game. All very well to fly for species marks, but if the ball.is rebounded out with no pressure, it makes the ground very difficult to defend.

Our two best years for scores conceded in the last six have been Butler's best two seasons.

 

[Falchoon]

I was playing with some data.

This is grouping coaches votes into 4 year blocks by player age, ie NAS is 22, his votes are in the 19-22 category 20-23, 21-24 & 22-25.

It's an interesting representation.



Pies strong across all age groups
Brisbane primed at 25-29
Bulldogs almost the perfect spread, Adelaide the same but a couple of years younger
Gold Coast and Freo are primed
Hawks good spread, but older than you think
GWS a hole in the middle
Melbourne - yuck
Saints - big big hole in the middle
Port - similar to GCS and Freo - what went wrong? No one over the age of 26.
Carl - Collingwood without the youngsters and elders
North - the youngsters not yet impacting (Sheez 25, McKerch 26)
Essendon, there's a base
Rich and WCE, a long way to go

 

[CaptainRisky]

Battle is an AA defender now. Also very durable and plays every week. In no way is he easily replaceable.

Not to mention Aleer has no idea what he is doing at times and should not even be mentioned in the same sentence as Battle

 

[jimmytigs]

Again what's your point?

Stick to the point.

Starting with 2 was insulting. Crap effort by St Kilda. It may have contributed to Windy looking elsewhere.

But to your comment, players like Windy don't get 6.

i have seen somewhere that many clubs and players are working on 2027 to coincide with the arrival of tassie,all for the benefit of the player,now maybe the $ was an insult,but not the 2 years if there is anything in that,so totally calling bullshit on 2 years being insulting if there is anything in that(im not going through footywire to see how many are contracted to end of 2027,but unless im imagining it i have see commentary around players wanting that)

i doubt windy is insulted by the 2 year part of the offer,but if he is he needs to take off his big girls blouse and man up

 

[CaptainRisky]

Our two best years for scores conceded in the last six have been Butler's best two seasons.

Trouble is he played 16 games last year and 6 this year , you don't see that as a concern

 

[Mat Mann]

Can Ryan defend? One of Butlers big strengths is his forward defensive game. All very well to fly for species marks, but if the ball.is rebounded out with no pressure, it makes the ground very difficult to defend.

Butler is the better pressure player, but he has to be because he's not really a goal threat or damaging in general

Ryan is consistently better at score assists and disposal efficiency.

Stats-wise, there's not a heap between them, Butler has more tackles, Ryan has more Marks, more disposals, more assists, better disposal

cost/wage aside Ryan is the one I'd prefer.

 

[SaintsofSteel]

There’s no pressure from butler when he’s sitting in the stands unfortunately.

Ryan has had as many injury interruptions as Butler over the journey....

 

[phantom13]

i have seen somewhere that many clubs and players are working on 2027 to coincide with the arrival of tassie,all for the benefit of the player,now maybe the $ was an insult,but not the 2 years if there is anything in that,so totally calling bullshit on 2 years being insulting if there is anything in that(im not going through footywire to see how many are contracted to end of 2027,but unless im imagining it i have see commentary around players wanting that)

i doubt windy is insulted by the 2 year part of the offer,but if he is he needs to take off his big girls blouse and man up

It depends on the player though, not every player will want 2 years because of Tassie and potential pay bumps, some would prefer security and balance.

People will disagree but i still maintain we ****ed up the Battle thing by not knowing the player and his values, if wed openly told Josh he is welcome to explore his options as we will but were all gonna be honest about it that whole scenario likely plays out differently (noting the outcome may have been the same but it would have been way less messy).

If Windy would value security and comittment more then offering him 2 because "its what players want" is a **** up as well.

Ive got no idea if any of the above is true, its all speculation but you gotta know your players.

 

[BrutThough]

I was playing with some data.

This is grouping coaches votes into 4 year blocks by player age, ie NAS is 22, his votes are in the 19-22 category 20-23, 21-24 & 22-25.

It's an interesting representation.

View attachment 2420051

Pies strong across all age groups
Brisbane primed at 25-29
Bulldogs almost the perfect spread, Adelaide the same but a couple of years younger
Gold Coast and Freo are primed
Hawks good spread, but older than you think
GWS a hole in the middle
Melbourne - yuck
Saints - big big hole in the middle
Port - similar to GCS and Freo - what went wrong? No one over the age of 26.
Carl - Collingwood without the youngsters and elders
North - the youngsters not yet impacting (Sheez 25, McKerch 26)
Essendon, there's a base
Rich and WCE, a long way to go

An underrated part of this recruiting haul for us is filling that middle gap which is clearly a disaster for us.

 

[The Punter]

Trouble is he played 16 games last year and 6 this year , you don't see that as a concern

I absolutely see it as a concern, but if we lost a FB we just wouldn't choose to not play a FB instead.

If Butler is not the answer any more then he needs replacing, but the question remains the same: who is the pressure forward? Because we will struggle to play without one who is a specialist at that position.

And I remain unconvinced that Ryan (or Higgins or Hall or Owens) are proper pressure forwards. Butler is when he is fit. Collard very well might be.

 

[Parkysp]

I think it has been quite targeted. All the recruits address areas of our game that needed bolstering. It’s a weak and compromised draft and we have a dump truck load of salary cap due to front loading contacts and paying under it over the past two years.

Anyone that thinks we shouldn’t be bringing in mature talent and should be alternatively handing big contacts the existing playing list that has just limped out of the bottom four are off their heads.

Almost like the 4 wins in a row all by about a kick with a team that was pushing 70% kids only 2 - 4 years into their careers didn’t register with some.

I was playing with some data.

This is grouping coaches votes into 4 year blocks by player age, ie NAS is 22, his votes are in the 19-22 category 20-23, 21-24 & 22-25.

It's an interesting representation.

View attachment 2420051

Pies strong across all age groups
Brisbane primed at 25-29
Bulldogs almost the perfect spread, Adelaide the same but a couple of years younger
Gold Coast and Freo are primed
Hawks good spread, but older than you think
GWS a hole in the middle
Melbourne - yuck
Saints - big big hole in the middle
Port - similar to GCS and Freo - what went wrong? No one over the age of 26.
Carl - Collingwood without the youngsters and elders
North - the youngsters not yet impacting (Sheez 25, McKerch 26)
Essendon, there's a base
Rich and WCE, a long way to go

Great heatmap visual of the data spread. Thanks

 

[PJays]

The raw comparison is not a good example of anything.

There's an old saying.

"In God we trust. All others must bring data".

A more modern version was Jay-Z:

"Men lie, women lie, numbers don't".

I was responding to someone who thinks Ryan is an impactful player.

I was merely asking- if that's the case, why does he average 1 goal a game and rarely get any coaches votes?

 

[phantom13]

Butler is the better pressure player, but he has to be because he's not really a goal threat or damaging in general

Ryan is consistently better at score assists and disposal efficiency.

Stats-wise, there's not a heap between them, Butler has more tackles, Ryan has more Marks, more disposals, more assists, better disposal

cost/wage aside Ryan is the one I'd prefer.

Butler has a 29, 30 and 33 goal season. Ryan has a 30 and a 26. GAs are .57 to .73.

The big discrepancies in stats are contested marks and marks for Ryan and tackles for Butler.

The ONLY argument in Ryans favour is durability and even that is debatable (Butler is a year older for 26 extra games)

 

[bird_man]

i have seen somewhere that many clubs and players are working on 2027 to coincide with the arrival of tassie,all for the benefit of the player,now maybe the $ was an insult,but not the 2 years if there is anything in that,so totally calling bullshit on 2 years being insulting if there is anything in that(im not going through footywire to see how many are contracted to end of 2027,but unless im imagining it i have see commentary around players wanting that)

i doubt windy is insulted by the 2 year part of the offer,but if he is he needs to take off his big girls blouse and man up

If Tassie are coming in then why would clubs be looking to have players come out of contract that year?

It makes sense for the players to push for the 2 if that's the direction they want to go, but not clubs.

 

[Diehard Saint]

That is literally their job. I don't know what they were looking at. I could see that he was going to be an absolute superstar from outside. Their internal talent identification is poor if they didn't see it.

We heard all the same excuses with Battle and Long. For a club that struggles to attract talent and has to over pay to get them in, we can't afford to leak talent out.

Well apparently neither SA club saw it either because they definitely didn’t prepare for it. Did they fail too?

Honestly, you can see a player has talent but he took everyone by surprise how quickly he spiked.

 

[CaptainRisky]

I absolutely see it as a concern, but if we lost a FB we just wouldn't choose to not play a FB instead.

If Butler is not the answer any more then he needs replacing, but the question remains the same: who is the pressure forward? Because we will struggle to play without one who is a specialist at that position.

And I remain unconvinced that Ryan (or Higgins or Hall or Owens) are proper pressure forwards. Butler is when he is fit. Collard very well might be.

Collard is the one , if he wants to do the work .

Needs a massive pre season and plenty of time in the gym

 

[Joffaboy]

Ok, take this anyway you like, and considering nobody knows the true figures you can call total bs if you like, I am.only passing on what has been relayed to me by two sources via PM. One I don't know their source but have seen his info over the years and it hasn't ever been hyperbole.
The other is more interesting. Haven't heard from this poster or seen him post in maybe 5 years. At that time his sources at the club were impeccable, don't know his situation now.
Both are singing from the same hymn-book.
1. TDK - averages out to 1.4 mill a season. Has contigencies if he is injured or form falls off a cliff. So like King this year, salary is substantially cut if KPI's aren't met.
2. JSOS offer was the same as the Bulldogs but a year longer 650 x 4
3. I asked about Aleer's offer and any Windy news but I got no reply.

As I said PM'S, I don't know their sources so don't know the accuracy. I am only passing on what was relayed by two independent sources.
So when someone says 1.8 for TDK and 800k for TDK I will quote 1.4, and 650k. After all just as possible as the other unsourced figures.
I suppose we will know are least JSOS soon enough when compo is given for him.