List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part IV

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 4

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[Sheepey]

It says a lot the Giants aren't at all desperate to keep Aleer. The language is "we would be happy if Leek returned to the club", not "we would be thrilled if Aleer returned to the club". He's very clearly not internally rated.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I’m playing my first game in 7 years today. Catch you all in emergency when I dislocate something I haven’t used since prior to covid

Go well today all park cricketers.

Today for me is the moment in time that I knew was coming… been so fortunate to have played in the same team as my son for the past 3 seasons. Today the little bastard leaves me behind at the age of 15 after being picked in the 2nds.

I sadly have to run around in the 3’s and won’t be able to watch him.

Senior cricket retirement beckons after 300 odd games… Vets every fortnight for me from next year.

 

[phantom13]

Really ,,,

For a bloke who’s name is Captain risky you sure aren’t

 

[Diehard Saint]

So they say but how would anyone not in the club know what he thought.

Can’t have been yes we must have him because we’ve walked. I could never figure out why we were interested in him and just assumed someone thought with his athletic ability we could turn him into a player.

I was shocked by how much we were supposedly offering and though we were getting him for a junk pick.

Your point is spot on, bullseye. If he was a lock and all but signed why was rtb off to have another look at him. This was also in season before we’d traded anything but after the free agents committed.

It All adds up to Aleer being a low priority possibility not an all but signed lock, things happen priorities change.

Anyway it’s going to be a big week and the clown show will move on.

Out of all the names mooted to come to us over the past year, Aleer was the one that had most of us questioning.

I did think it was odd that Ross had to go and have a look at him again so late in the piece. It’s quite clear he was not convinced.

 

[phantom13]

Out of all the names mooted to come to us over the past year, Aleer was the one that had most of us questioning.

I did think it was odd that Ross had to go and have a look at him again so late in the piece. It’s quite clear he was not convinced.

I got the appeal of aleer structurally until we got JSOS.

When we were looking at both I thought it had to be one or the other. Neither can play true big FB and you don’t really play 3 undersized one on one defenders.

When JSOS was locked Aleer made no sense anymore, other than we’d already comitted to him.

The story remains the way we bailed on the deal but it’s very hard to argue it wasn’t the right call

 

[Diehard Saint]

Only fly in that ointment is the fact that we offered GWS a F2 & F3 for Leek & their F2.

If the Giants take that then Leek is a Saint & the ‘we changed our mind bc he’s no good’ theory is blown to bits.

Educated gamble that we knew they wouldn’t do it?
Maybe in order to save face?
We’ll never really know.
I’d say the vast majority are happy with this result though.
Always seems too big a deal for “potential.”

 

[Diehard Saint]

I got the appeal of aleer structurally until we got JSOS.

When we were looking at both I thought it had to be one or the other. Neither can play true big FB and you don’t really play 3 undersized one on one defenders.

When JSOS was locked Aleer made no sense anymore, other than we’d already comitted to him.

The story remains the way we bailed on the deal but it’s very hard to argue it wasn’t the right call

100%
One or the other.
JSOS was a last minute opportunity which we seized when it arose.
Did not need both - just hope he stays on the park though.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Educated gamble that we knew they wouldn’t do it?
Maybe in order to save face?
We’ll never really know.
I’d say the vast majority are happy with this result though.
Always seems too big a deal for “potential.”

Sadly, it seems that as he was exposed in the senior squad he went from Leek Aleer to Lack Allure

 

[SainterinSydney]

Educated gamble that we knew they wouldn’t do it?
Maybe in order to save face?
We’ll never really know.
I’d say the vast majority are happy with this result though.
Always seems too big a deal for “potential.”

I'm in the camp that we looked for an off ramp. I think once JSOS was signed Aleer would have been playing VFL. They aren't going to be playing the Viking in the VFL!

 

[Half Back Pocket]

Go well today all park cricketers.

Today for me is the moment in time that I knew was coming… been so fortunate to have played in the same team as my son for the past 3 seasons. Today the little bastard leaves me behind at the age of 15 after being picked in the 2nds.

I sadly have to run around in the 3’s and won’t be able to watch him.

Senior cricket retirement beckons after 300 odd games… Vets every fortnight for me from next year.

You r out in the north right? I’ve been playing BHRDCA bets for the past few years…this year they could only scrape together 13 teams

 

[Saintos The ITK]

No wonder Wilkie and Windy had the shits when they saw we were going to pay Leek $700k.
These boys know who is good and who isn’t.
Wonder if there was a bit of player backlash that saw us go off him.

 

[From 45]

No wonder Wilkie and Windy had the shits when they saw we were going to pay Leek $700k.
These boys know who is good and who isn’t.
Wonder if there was a bit of player backlash that saw us go off him.

I highly doubt there’s any backlash as the figure of $700k is absolute hogwash

 

[Mav3rick]

You know how every man and his dog are saying this is a shit draft and clubs are actively trading out of it. Does that mean Jevan is ordinary????

Honestly saints fans love him because his name is phillipou. That's the truth, he's a good athlete but very little footy craft about him at this stage.

I loved what I saw from Fincher but he's not projected as a high pick at all in a weak draft. I don't think the club are banking on much from this draft, clearly

 

[Captain Paddy]

Its going to be a tough choice, but if Marshall plays forward I think Owens or Caminiti will be the players who gets squeezed.

Sharman adds more flexibility and hits the score board consistently particularly when not being reqd to play a key positional role.

Owens getting squeezed out is a wild call.

Top 10 in the B&F despite missing some games with injury

Won the team trademark award

Has a ridiculous win/loss percentage for one on ones.

Would be one of the first picked I reckon

 

[SaintyMcSaintface]

I'm in the camp that we looked for an off ramp. I think once JSOS was signed Aleer would have been playing VFL. They aren't going to be playing the Viking in the VFL!

Surely we would have backed out straight away and avoid pulling the rug out at this late point.

 

[phantom13]

Owens getting squeezed out is a wild call.

Top 10 in the B&F despite missing some games with injury

Won the team trademark award

Has a ridiculous win/loss percentage for one on ones.

Would be one of the first picked I reckon

He’s a completely different prospect with Max and even Ryan in the team. Nightmare match up physically

 

[SaintyMcSaintface]

I highly doubt there’s any backlash as the figure of $700k is absolute hogwash

What kind of incentives would have doubled his salary? Winning a BnF?

 

[SaintyMcSaintface]

Only fly in that ointment is the fact that we offered GWS a F2 & F3 for Leek & their F2.

If the Giants take that then Leek is a Saint & the ‘we changed our mind bc he’s no good’ theory is blown to bits.

Is it possible we baulked because his manager refused to walk him through the draft?

 

[goodie23]

I highly doubt there’s any backlash as the figure of $700k is absolute hogwash

There's a lot of that going around. Saints remaining quiet suggests we're up to something - all we know is Purple (a known Saints baiter/hater) claimed we blew up the deal, Aleer's manager published a poorly written statement and GWS have come out defending their part in it. There is/was plenty of time left in trade period but if the Saints are hardly in a hurry to come back to the trade table after this series of events.

Can only assume that our side will be told after trade time is done, then people can actually make a fair assessment on whether or not the club's done the wrong thing.

 

[maanco]

Salary Cap Estimate

I've estimated the Saints’ salary cap position, based on based on reported contract values and AFL cap accounting assumptions.
It looks very healthy heading into 2026 and primed for a 2026 Free Agent.

2025: AFL salary cap was $17.78m. St Kilda reportedly spent only 83% (~$14.76m).

2025: Unused cap space carried forward – around $3.9m likely front-loaded into existing 2025 contracts.

2026: AFL salary cap $18.29m.

2026: Estimated raw player spend (based on reported contracts and estimates) – $19.64m.

2026: Adjusted cap spend (after front-loading using 2025 savings) – $15.73m, or 85.9% of the cap.

2026: Remaining capacity to front-load – approximately $1.65m in existing 2026 contracts.

2027 salary cap $18.44m.

2027: Estimated spend $17.99m – around 97.6% of the cap, a strong and sustainable position.

Summary:
This is a conservative estimate as it assumes our salary spend is $19.64M on average in both 2026 and 2027, but it suggests St Kilda are about $2.5–3 million under the 2026 AFL cap after front-loading adjustments. The club has strong flexibility, with the ability to spend 105% in both 2027 and 2028 and the ability to front-load further without breaching cap limits.

Further allowance for salary increases for up and coming players salary appears to be allowed for given some senior player contracts tapering off and retirements are likely.

It appears to be very well-managed, and will allow St Kilda to be competitive in free agency in 2026.

Go Saints.


Correction:
I have fixed a calculation error and we will actually spend 95% of the cap in 2026 and 105% of the cap in 2027 - if it is assumed we pay an average of $19.5M over the two seasons.

Because of this it would be ideal to trade a few players this season i.e. steel and Marshall to allow for front loading.

It might also be why we have pulled out of the Aleer deal.

 

[SainterinSydney]

If Tony is right and we are cooking something where Leek was an unfortunate casualty, let's wait and see what is pulled out of the oven. Trade period is still on.

 

[TheJackal]

No wonder Wilkie and Windy had the shits when they saw we were going to pay Leek $700k.
These boys know who is good and who isn’t.
Wonder if there was a bit of player backlash that saw us go off him.

I have been thinking this since we pulled out. Windy, Nas and Wilkie have gotten more than what we expected to pay - the pattern was emerging.

Its one thing to pay 'overs' for a free agent, its almost expected, but when its a defender who has played 20 average games of footy - thats when there is a huge potential for backlash within the club.

Short term 'media' pain for long term gain.

 

[stavro#4]

Only fly in that ointment is the fact that we offered GWS a F2 & F3 for Leek & their F2.

If the Giants take that then Leek is a Saint & the ‘we changed our mind bc he’s no good’ theory is blown to bits.

I said this the other day. But everyone seemed to think otherwise.

The likelihood is that SOS has a history of asking agents to work with us to get the desired outcome and this one probably turned around and said no. So we walked away.

 

[stavro#4]

Educated gamble that we knew they wouldn’t do it?
Maybe in order to save face?
We’ll never really know.
I’d say the vast majority are happy with this result though.
Always seems too big a deal for “potential.”

No, that doesn’t explain the agent blowing up with a statement a few hours after straight to Tom Morris.

It doesn’t explain us walking away.

Deals fall apart all the time.

The sticking point was the second rounder. It was seemingly a non negotiable.

At this point I’m guessing we asked to walk Aleer through the PSD. (SOS did so with Martin when at Carlton) the agent probably loyal to the giants told us otherwise and to pay what they wanted and we walked.

 

[saintmike65]

To whom?

North or bulldogs